Toshi, Sony, what have they done? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 06-05-2007, 10:45 AM
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Default Toshi, Sony, what have they done?

This morning my workmate asked me how I like my a20 and I answered that I love it.

Then he asked me if he should buy one I said no, wait, they'll be cheaper soon.

Then it hit me how different this format war is from the last, and how it will become a case study in schools for years to come.

The lesson is (again) that to look at the last major war and then assume that things are equal when they are not, and thus fight the current war with the measures used to win the last one and pay a dear price.

When VHS/Beta fought it out there was no China factor and that one change in the manufacturing landscape has made this format war unwinnable or if there is a *winner* they will have won a pyrrhic victory at best.

Historically whenever there has been some new home tech introduced there has always been an early adopters tax, we’ve all paid it. Hands up if you paid more than 700 dollars for your first DVD player. I bet that is a lot of hands. Normally we’re ok with it, because there are two or three years of pure isolated enjoyment before the item is a commodity and everyone has one, and we feel that we have got some value out of the original purchase.

Flat screen TVs have been around many years and only this year are starting to reach the point where the mass market can purchase one. So if you bought a flat screen 5 years ago at $15K, you have had 5 years of pure elitist bliss while the rest of us lived in the 480i world. If you bought an HDVD player 5 months ago you’ve watched the value of your item drop by 50% or more and that is not along time and no-where near enough time to get any perceived value from your early adopter tax.

The HDVD market is now uncontrollable and prices will have to free-fall because everyone now expects prices to free-fall, and everyone will put off purchases because they expect that price drop. It wasn’t supposed to be like that because it has never been like that, ever in the history of a brand-spanking new home tech we’ve never seen something go from niche price to commodity price in a mere12 months; DVDs took three years, HDTV took 5, VHS took 10.

The fact that the floor has collapsed in regards to prices will affect everything; it started with HD DVD and now it’s beginning to hit BD DVD. One effect is that secondary manufactures are going to stay away because they’re not happy about having to discount product that is in the channel. Panasonic took a big hit, and will have to take another on their new line even though that new sku has yet to be shipped from the warehouse. Sanyo is staying out, JVC, RCA, Sharp all the biggies are staying out. LG and Samsung are playing it safe, but I doubt that even they can make money right now.

The hope for cash windfall via license fees and consumers paying the early adaptor tax has vanished. It’s too late to even think you’ll make you’re money back because China adds one more truth to be reckoned with. Toshi and Sony can continue to pump these items out at a very low price for pretty much the end of time. Once these two accept that they’ll never make the big dollars they can simply release the hounds and the market will be fully saturated by cheap HDVD players by Christmas. The only big loser might be DVD, but so what.

As for the Studios they will produce content where there is a paying audience. If in two years there are 30MM HDVD players in NA, with a 40/60 split (in BDs favour) they will NOT ignore a market of 12-15 million middle-class consumers, not even Sony Entertainment. Everybody has to meet revenue expectations. Right now Studios can stay out because there is not any bottom line added revenue, but once you have 12 million consumers you have huge bottom line potential.

And even if in three years one side finally declares uncle that will be a short victory because in three years most urban consumers will be able to rent movies while eating chips on the couch, and the market for discs will begin to decline except for the very few who must own 500 HDVDs. I can see that, just like I see the very small market for LPs today.
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Old 06-05-2007, 11:41 AM
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Please don't call it BD DVD... Blu-Ray has nothing to do with DVD other then being its' successor.

Also, the pricing hasn't fallen through the floor with Blu-Ray players. I don't know why you think it is... Blu-Ray players have been available for $500 USD since last year.
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Old 06-05-2007, 11:56 AM
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He's talking stand alones and you know it... not everyone wants a PS3 as their BD player.
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Old 06-05-2007, 12:05 PM
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HD dvd players (BD DVD included) should be like video game consoles...

they should be sold at cost or less and manufacturers should count on sales of the software to make up their profits.


In regards to the "don't call blu-ray BD DVD" comment...that was one of the stupidest things I've heard on this forum. Sure, they share nothing in common with standard dvd.

1. they both use the exact same size digital disk for storing info
2. they both use lasers to read info off the disk
3. they both operate the exact same way
4. they look identical

The only thing they DONT have in common is the amount of storage space on the disks.

Get off your soapbox..BR DVD is just a damn disk...
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Old 06-05-2007, 12:06 PM
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Clearance and refurbished BD players do not count; the new SONY BD player will be the first one to MSRP around $500.
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Old 06-05-2007, 12:15 PM
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and then there goes all the ps3's being bought for blu-ray. they'll only sale if you want video games too. but we all know about those games. q
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Old 06-05-2007, 12:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dolphinius_rex View Post
Please don't call it BD DVD... Blu-Ray has nothing to do with DVD other then being its' successor.
Agreed 100%. Blu-Ray isn't like a DVD at all, its really more of a digital video disc.
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Old 06-05-2007, 12:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMattyP View Post
HD dvd players (BD DVD included) should be like video game consoles...

they should be sold at cost or less and manufacturers should count on sales of the software to make up their profits.


In regards to the "don't call blu-ray BD DVD" comment...that was one of the stupidest things I've heard on this forum. Sure, they share nothing in common with standard dvd.

1. they both use the exact same size digital disk for storing info
2. they both use lasers to read info off the disk
3. they both operate the exact same way
4. they look identical

The only thing they DONT have in common is the amount of storage space on the disks.

Get off your soapbox..BR DVD is just a damn disk...
This is quite correct.
Most of the people outside of the High Definition and Home Theater circles are considering these as the "new dvds"
They do not see a huge step forward to be called something else. They are right. The result they see at the end is what it matters, better resolution in the image and also very nice menues.
This is the reason why I think the price on the hardware can not be $1000. Most of the people do not see a huge advantage to pay those crazy prices.
High Defintion is not the best that has happen to home media either.
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Old 06-05-2007, 12:25 PM
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OP, your post sounds to me like you are saying a price war is bad for the long term viability of the industry. And I agree. But the freefall of hardware prices is mostly the doing of Toshiba. They can only compete on price. Thus, I don't see why you include Sony in your thread title.
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Old 06-05-2007, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philnerd View Post
Agreed 100%. Blu-Ray isn't like a DVD at all, its really more of a digital video disc.
Yeah - I hate it when they refer to music albums as CDs, too. They're more of a compact disc, you know?
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