Things are good for HD DVD - When will it pass Blu-ray? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 05-29-2007, 07:55 PM
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Default Things are good for HD DVD - When will it pass Blu-ray?

I figured I'd start a thread for a change.

This question has come up in a couple of threads but it really deserves one of it's own.

HD DVD is undergoing a bit of a revival at the moment; there's a fantastic deal on the A2 at Amazon, the Matrix is a temporary exclusive, Planet Earth is flying off the shelves and to cap it all there are 71 upcoming HD DVD releases to blu-ray's 51.

Meanwhile things look bleak for blu-ray; PS3 sales are disappointing and falling month-on-month, Fox and Disney are not pulling their weight in terms of releases, players can't match HD DVD on price, upcoming exclusives Spidey 3 and POTC III have been poorly reviewed and BD-J still is absent from players.

So, things look rosy for HD DVD, which begs the question: when (and how) will it start to overtake BD in weekly software sales?

Last edited by Kid Banana; 05-29-2007 at 10:09 PM.
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kid Banana View Post
I figured I'd start a thread for a change.

This question has come up in a couple of threads but I figured it really deserves one of it's own.

HD DVD is undergoing a bit of a revival at the moment; there's a fantastic deal on the A2 at Amazon, the Matrix is a temporary exclusive, Planet Earth is flying off off the shelves and to cap it all there are 71 upcoming HD DVD releases to blu-ray's 51.

Meanwhile things look bleak for blu-ray; PS3 sales are disappointing and falling month-on-month, Fox and Disney are not pulling their weight in terms of releases, players can't match HD DVD on price, upcoming exclusives Spidey 3 and POTC III have been poorly reviewed and BD-J still is absent from players.

So, things look rosy for HD DVD, which begs the question: when (and how) will it start to overtake BD in weekly software sales?
The HD-a2 is back to $299 on Amazon. The Matrix is more than counterbalanced by POTCs. Planet Earth is dual format. HD dvd has more planned releases, but blu-ray still has the bigger name titles available: POTCs, Casino Royale, Night at the Museum.

PS3 is still outselling hd dvd all by itself and the PS3 install base greatly outnumbers hd dvd. Fox and Disney aren't releasing catalog titles, but POTC and Night at the Museum more than make up for the lack of releases. Blu-ray hasn't competed on price as of yet but hold a 2-1 sales advantage for the year. The reviews of Spiderman 3 and POTC 3 weren't that important to box-office success. Why should it be any different for blu-ray (and besides these are holiday releases on blu-ray not summer releases)? Bd-j 2.0 is mostly a non-issue.

Me thinks you have an ulterior motive to get hd dvd supporters on record. Personally, I would be more than surprised if Hd dvd closes the gap by the end of the year to less than 2-1 on the yearly total (though some weekly and monthly variance is more than possible).
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kid Banana View Post
I figured I'd start a thread for a change.

This question has come up in a couple of threads but I figured it really deserves one of it's own.

HD DVD is undergoing a bit of a revival at the moment; there's a fantastic deal on the A2 at Amazon, the Matrix is a temporary exclusive, Planet Earth is flying off off the shelves and to cap it all there are 71 upcoming HD DVD releases to blu-ray's 51.

Meanwhile things look bleak for blu-ray; PS3 sales are disappointing and falling month-on-month, Fox and Disney are not pulling their weight in terms of releases, players can't match HD DVD on price, upcoming exclusives Spidey 3 and POTC III have been poorly reviewed and BD-J still is absent from players.

So, things look rosy for HD DVD, which begs the question: when (and how) will it start to overtake BD in weekly software sales?

Realistic answer: January 2008. HD DVD will dominate this Christmas with sub $199.00 and even sub $149.00 players. That will generate an unstoppable momentum in software sales. The PS3 even if they drop the price $100.00 will have a hard time against the Wii and the Xbox 360 + Halo 3. They'll be lucky, throwing parties and break dancing happy, at Sony HQ's if they sell 3 million WORLDWIDE the rest of the year. Blue Ray standalones (new and out of box from B&M stores) are still going to be more than double the price of HD DVD players.

In short. I'm gald I chose HD DVD.

Last edited by Count Westwest; 05-29-2007 at 08:14 PM.
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:14 PM
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So, things look rosy for HD DVD, which begs the question: when (and how) will it start to overtake BD in weekly software sales?
While I do detect a healthy amount of your English sarcasm here, Kid (), I agree that it is a good week for HD-DVD. Even so, though, HD-DVD still has some work to do to overtake software sales. I am curious to see the new sales data for May 27, where we will see how POTC and Matrix helped both formats.

Personally, even with the current Blu-Ray lead, I think HD-DVD can do it...they have the potential. If Toshiba keeps aggressively marketing the HD-A2, software sales will increase. New HD-DVD owners will pick up available titles, and unless something changes, I think HD-DVD could make steady gains, especially if HD-DVD keeps its release schedule heavy through Christmas with amazing deals on hardware.

If things stay the way they are, I could easily see HD-DVD gaining the lead by Christmas...however, I doubt Blu-Ray will sit on their heels. And Fox and Disney, although quiet at the moment, could step up their release schedule at any time.
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:18 PM
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But Blu-ray is leading in spite of that. Once BD-J is in place and Fox will start releasing many of their box-office hits, together with Disney; I think we will see the beginning of the end of HD DVD...

And it isnt just the number of releases that count, but the number of box office hits. And BD is by far the strongest here.

But I think the war will be long and dirty...
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Xyz123 View Post
The reviews of Spiderman 3 and POTC 3 weren't that important to box-office success. Why should it be any different for blu-ray (and besides these are holiday releases on blu-ray not summer releases)? Bd-j 2.0 is mostly a non-issue.
$403,706,375 Spiderman 1

$373,585,825 Spiderman 2

$307,754,583 Spiderman 3


I do not think that Spiderman 3 was what Sony Corp expected from this one. The movie was released on a week were it did not have competition and also the title was the most expensive of the three. However it made less money than the other two. I am talking about US since we are talking about the market in US.
I think the movie will sell well on Blu Ray, but most people are trying to create gods from titles such as this one , POTC 3 or Casino Royale.

Last edited by divian; 05-29-2007 at 08:24 PM.
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:23 PM
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If HD DVD can overtake BD in software volume, it'd be maybe late July or August. We'll see though, 80,000 PS3s a month is nothing to sneeze at and should continue to generate additional sales, at least for some movies.

We'll have some interesting neutral releases from Warner and Paramount to look at later this summer. Should be fun to watch.
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:24 PM
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But I think the war will be long and dirty...
It will.
You just wait and see when one of those two studios ( Fox or Disney) become neutral. I hate when people give for granted that they will remain exclusive.
Everytime I see how great Warner is doing by being neutral, I do not understand how people do not see those studios becoming neutral.
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:24 PM
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From one Brit to another ( even if exiled ), I don't see HD taking the lead anytime soon. It's going to take a lot of stand alone sales to reduce the gap. The rot has stopped and there is a confidence in HD which you can read in the reviews of new people buying the players on Amazon. I'm really pleased in the HD position compared to March and am sure in roads will be made but making up the 10% needed for some kind of parity will not happen over night. ( Of course I would love to be proved wrong !! )
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Old 05-29-2007, 08:26 PM
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Quote:
So, things look rosy for HD DVD, which begs the question: when (and how) will it start to overtake BD in weekly software sales?
As long as Disney,Fox,MGM, Miramax are not even making movies for HD DVD, never.

And POTC 3 was.
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