2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 01-19-2009, 04:49 PM
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2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

This is a the newest version ( started January 2009 ) continuation of the Nielsen/Videoscan sales thread.

This thread is for all discussion of Blu-ray sales stats on how Blu-ray sales are compared to DVD . Discussion of the Home Media Magazine stats and all other industry released sales statistics on Blu-ray is encouraged. This mostly will focus on software sales, as we get the most consistent information there, but relevent hardware sales talk is also allowed.

The first ten or so summary posts will be updated weekly by me with a link on this post to the current weekly discussion.

Discussion on current week sales figures are generally near the last couple pages of the thread, with current new weekly data coming in sometime late Wednesday afternoon to late evening when Home Media Magazine and The Hollywood Reporter give initial info on the Nielsen Videoscan first alert data which is released on that day for the last weeks data which ends on Sunday.

I've stopped trying to give a link to the latest week's discussion as the early posting of the Blu-ray and DVD research charts at Home Media magazine's homepage on Wednesday has kinda blended things together. Just go the last few pages of the thread and look for the graphs and charts to find the start of this weeks current discussion.

We get revenue data first and breakouts of how each title sold in relation to the best selling title as an index number. My estimations for the bestselling top 20 DVD titles and top 20 Blu-ray titles unit sales occur a few days to a week later when The-Numbers.com posts its DVD unit sales estimates up so often the top 20 unit sales estimate figures run almost a week behind the revenue charts and graphs..

older threads located here:

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post1245533

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/sale...llers-etc.html


For the record:

Why and how I do this stuff...

Quote:
...
Quick question: with all the tables and graphs, WHEN do you find time to watch any movies????
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
Almost everyday I find time when I'm not traveling to watch HD movies.

I'm interested in the success of HD movies and home theater and I have friends who like my analysis.

Plus once I've started , I have a lot of guys out there who have encouraged me and look forward to my comments and data roll up update each week so I kinda feel obligated.

I multi task during the day and night. I watch at least a HD movie a day, maybe more, if I'm not on the road.

If I'm incrementally adding on to the charts each week it takes less time that creating them from scratch, so its a routine. Pretty much I'm analyzing them as I type, so it takes less time, although I make an occasional typo or make a mistake that I hopefully catch when I re read them in context.

I'm reasonably fluent in Excel skills and I don't spend a lot of time making them pretty. Its a subject I'm interested in and I'm just sharing the joy. Posting started as a professional writing exercise and its now a habit. Most of the time comes in when the new data from TheNumbers.com gets released and I do the unit calculations. Did I say that I multi task pretty well?

Plus at this point, I have a lot of you guys double checking my data, so I feel pretty confident that if/when I make mistakes someone will catch it, so I feel free to just post.

This is fun stuff to do analysis on. Much easier to do it than with other subjects that I've been paid to do in the past.

For me its a stream of consciousness, multitasking orgy of analysis, connections, trade connections, forwarded PMs, emails, telephone calls, trade magazine reading, and basic curiosity from me and my real world business associates and clients.

That and reasonably fast typing skills.

I just like sharing some of the information I can find and organize in a way that keeps things in perspective and helps kill the FUD. Plus its a hobby and habit now and I learn a lot that helps out my real world clients as well as my own home theater enjoyment.

I'd rather let the facts speak for themselves or at least have all sides of the arguments presented so people can think for themselves.

Last but not least, I think this time is a bit significant in the adoption of high definition video and lossless audio in the home. I've to a degree met a lot of players in the industry and I kinda feel almost that I'm been seeing a bit of marketing and consumer electronics history. So at this point, I'm just feeling obligated to go along for the ride and see it through.

Glad someone out there appreciates it.

Kosty

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
For the uninitiated, Wal-Mart does not cooperative with any data aggregators directly anymore, as the largest retailer it figured it was getting less out of the deal. But the weekly Nielsen Videoscan first alert report pretty much takes the point of sale cash register electronically reported data each week and keeps track of every transaction by price and SKU.

So for the most part, unless Wal-Mart had a special promotion or event (like Twilight DVD special edition and no Blu-ray version at all a few months ago) th Wal-Mart rankings will be almost exactly like the rest of the market. Pretty much its a 100% census of packaged media sales each week of every retailer with more than one store in the country. Or if you will a 60% sample size of the DVD market and 75-80% sample size of the Blu-ray market down to the individual transaction level.

The home media magazine weekly revenues add in an adjustment for Wal-Mart on top of the Nielsen Videoscan data and my top 20 estimates in this thread do so as well.


Old Nielsen Videoscan retailers list and Nielsen Videoscan overview

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attac...6&d=1171406427

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attac...7&d=1171406443

THE NEXT 10 POSTS OR SO ARE CURRENT UPDATES OF THE DATA CHARTS AND GRAPHS UPDATED EACH WEEK FOR EASY REFERENCE

THE NEXT 5 POSTS OR SO ARE SOME HISTORICAL LINKS AND USEFUL DATA

Last edited by Kosty; 07-14-2009 at 06:12 PM.
  #2  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:49 PM
Kosty's Avatar
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 28,296
2008 2009 HMM Research Weekly Sales Revenue Estimates for DVD & Blu-ray

updated through week ending 12/06/09 data

Last years 2008 52 week round week total (from weeks ending 01/06/08 - 12/28/08) was $531.80 M.

Through 49 weeks in 2009, Blu-ray has totaled $1,028.49 Million or $1.0284 Billion dollars in sell through sales in North America

Please use scroll bar to see complete data set.


WEEKLY REVENUE CALCULATIONS ($ Millions)

Code:
Data from HMM (Newest week on top)

Date          DVD     Blu-ray DVD+BD BD/(DVD+BD)BD/DVD*100  Pie Chart BD% of
Week Ending   revenue revenue revenue revenue   rev index   top 20 units   

12/06/09	268.40	46.80	315.20	14.85%	17.44 21.26%(BD+157.10% -19.16% DVD TL -10.00% YTY)
11/29/09	491.10	69.06	560.16	12.33%	14.06 11.68%(BD+222.04%  -7.89% DVD TL  +1.02% YTY)
11/22/09	210.66	47.25	257.91	18.32%	22.43 21.78%(BD+229.96% -14.46% DVD TL  -1.03% YTY)
11/15/09	203.76	41.03	244.79	16.76%	20.14 18.61%(BD+164.14% -15.23% DVD TL  -4.33% YTY)
11/08/09	167.93	28.06	195.99	14.32%	16.71 17.68%(BD+231.40%  +2.65% DVD TL +13.90% YTY) 		
11/01/09	170.30	26.52	196.82	13.47%	15.57 13.93%(BD+181.76%  +4.35% DVD TL +14.03% YTY)
10/25/09	210.66	38.86	249.52	15.57%	18.45 19.75%(BD+184.88% +23.95% DVD TL +35.91% YTY)			
10/18/09	165.63	25.09	190.72	13.16%	15.15 16.47%(BD +81.65%  -7.25% DVD TL  -0.87% YTY)		
10/11/09        156.82  32.70   189.52  17.25%  20.85 29.44%(BD+195.46%  -9.88% DVD TL  -2.40% YTY)
10/04/09        166.44  21.81   188.25  11.59%  13.10 14.85%(BD +05.53% -16.47% DVD TL -14.40% YTY)  			

09/27/09        120.99  13.66   134.65  10.14%  11.29 15.11%(BD +62.41% -26.29% DVD TL -21.97% YTY)  			
09/20/09        179.20  25.49   204.69  12.45%  14.22 16.67%(BD+273.38% +16.68% DVD TL +27.60% YTY)  			
09/13/09        103.87  12.05   115.92  10.40%  11.60 14.40%(BD +70.56% -32.36% DVD TL -27.83% YTY)  		
09/06/09        123.46  15.76   139.22  11.32%  12.77 17.39%(BD +93.21% -19.48% DVD TL -13.79% YTY) 
08/30/09        137.08  10.52   147.60   7.13%   7.67  9.32%(BD +49.49% -20.04% DVD TL -17.29% YTY) 
08/23/09        154.87  13.26   168.13   7.89%   8.56  8.80%(BD+143.65%  -6.80% DVD TL  -2.03% YTY) 
08/16/09        129.88  15.75   145.63  10.82%  12.13 13.36%(BD+230.97% -15.34% DVD TL  -7.93% YTY) 
08/09/09        165.75  16.11   181.86   8.86%   9.72 11.34%(BD+207.73%  -4.53% DVD TL  +1.64% YTY) 
08/02/09        178.70  30.31   209.01  14.50%  16.96 18.51%(BD+324.65%  +3.65% DVD TL +16.62% YTY) 
07/26/09	183.30  35.21   218.51  16.11%  19.21   20% (BD+471.79% +14.75% DVD TL +31.71% YTY) 
07/19/09	127.89	11.18	139.07	 8.04%	 8.74   13% (BD +90.63% -17.43% DVD TL -13.48% YTY) 
07/12/09	145.03	16.16	161.19	10.03%	11.14	13% (BD+149.25%  -8.85% DVD TL  -2.66% YTY) 
07/05/09        144.31  10.73   155.04   6.92%   7.44   10% (BD +77.33% -14.03% DVD TL -10.85% YTY) 3Q 2009

06/28/09        143.97  14.48   158.45   9.14%  10.06   12% (BD+111.85% -19.60% DVD TL -14.77% YTY)
06/21/09        234.00  20.80   254.80   8.16%   8.89    8% (BD+218.74% +37.35% DVD TL +44.04% YTY)
06/14/09        188.59	19.92	208.51	 9.55%	10.56	13% (BD+103.16% -14.69% DVD TL -09.69% YTY)
06/07/09	159.10	16.03	175.13	 9.15%	10.08	12% (BD+107.75% -06.83% DVD TL -01.87% YTY)
05/31/09	147.14	14.06	161.20	 8.72%	 9.56	12% (BD +81.72% -17.58% DVD TL -13.45% YTY)
05/24/09	178.53	20.92	199.45	10.49%	11.72	14% (BD+119.47% -13.10% DVD TL -07.23% YTY)
05/17/09	187.96	23.69	211.65	11.19%	12.60	15% (BD+285.12% +07.71% DVD TL +17.15% YTY)
05/10/09	165.23	16.52	181.75	 9.09%	10.00	10% (BD+226.95% -03.90% DVD TL +02.69% YTY)
05/03/09	154.42	15.09	169.51	 8.90%	 9.77	10% (BD+176.73% -05.24% DVD TL +00.66% YTY)
04/26/09	165.58	19.42	184.99	10.50%	11.73	14% (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/19/09	135.79	10.79	146.58	 7.36%	 7.94	12% (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/12/09	296.43	19.56	315.99	 6.19%	 6.60	 7% (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/05/09	246.24	17.24	263.47	 6.54%	 7.00	10% (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)  (2Q 2009)   

03/29/09	264.73	24.03	288.76	 8.32%	 9.08	13% (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/22/09	237.16	18.79	255.95	 7.34%	 7.92	 9% (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/15/09	208.32	16.75	225.06	 7.44%	 8.04	12% (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/08/09	167.71	10.61	178.32	 5.95%	 6.33	10% (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/01/09	186.58	11.85	198.43	 5.97%	 6.35	 8% (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
02/22/09	191.22	13.28	204.50	 6.49%	 6.94	10% (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/15/09	207.02	10.78	217.80	 4.95%	 5.21	 8% (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/08/09	191.84	11.00	202.84	 5.42%	 5.73	 7% (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/01/09	155.74	10.27	166.01	 6.18%	 6.59	14% (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
01/25/09	147.10	15.66	162.76	 9.62%	10.65	17% (BD+165.35% -26.80% DVD TL -21.32% YTY)
01/18/09	132.80	10.56	143.37	 7.37%	 7.95	12% (BD +62.99% -27.01% DVD TL -23.91% YTY)
01/11/09	149.56	18.71	168.27	11.12%	12.51	13% (BD+207.95% -12.32% DVD TL - 4.75% YTY)
01/04/09	179.32	24.33	203.65	11.95%	13.57	16% (BD+231.89% -12.88% DVD TL - 4.46% YTY)
Code:
Date          DVD     Blu-ray DVD+BD BD/(DVD+BD)BD/DVD*100  Pie Chart BD% of
Week Ending   revenue revenue revenue revenue   rev index   top 20 units   
                                                           Cum Rev 2008 Week 
12/28/08	417.42	30.85	448.27	 6.88%	 7.39	13% 531.80	52
12/21/08	482.78	35.81	518.59	 6.91%	 7.42	11% 500.95	51
12/14/08	636.88	46.80	683.68	 6.85%	 7.35	14% 465.14	50
12/07/08	332.01	18.20	350.21	 5.20%	 5.48	11% 418.34	49
11/30/08	533.17	21.31	554.48	 3.84%	 4.00	10% 400.13	48
11/23/08	246.27	14.32	260.59	 5.49%	 5.81	11% 378.82	47
11/16/08	240.35	15.53	255.89	 6.07%	 6.46	 9% 364.50	46
11/09/08	163.60	 8.47	172.06	 4.92%	 5.17	 8% 348.97	45
11/02/08	163.19	 9.41	172.60	 5.45%	 5.77	 8% 340.50	44
10/26/08	169.96	13.64	183.60	 7.43%	 8.03	12% 331.09	43
10/19/08	178.58	13.81	192.40	 7.18%	 7.74	11% 317.45	42
10/12/08	174.01	11.07	185.08	 5.98%	 6.36	10% 303.64	41
10/05/08	199.25	20.67	219.91	 9.40%	10.37	13% 292.57	40

09/28/08	164.14	 8.41	172.56	 4.87%	 5.12	 6% 271.90	39
09/21/08	153.58	 6.83	160.41	 4.26%	 4.44	 8% 263.49	38
09/14/08	153.56	 7.07	160.63	 4.40%	 4.60	 8% 256.66	37
09/07/08	153.33	 8.16	161.49	 5.05%	 5.32	12% 249.60	36
08/31/08	171.44	 7.02	178.45	 3.93%	 4.09	 6% 241.44	35
08/24/08	166.16	 5.44	171.60	 3.17%	 3.27	 6% 234.42	34
08/17/08	153.41	 4.76	158.18	 3.01%	 3.10	 8% 228.98	33
08/10/08	173.62	 5.31	178.92	 2.97%	 3.06	 7% 224.22	32
08/03/08	172.40	 7.26	179.66	 4.04%	 4.21	10% 218.91	31
07/27/08	159.73	 6.16	165.89	 3.71%	 3.85	 9% 211.66	30
07/20/08	154.88	 5.86	160.74	 3.65%	 3.79	 8% 205.50	29
07/13/08	159.11	 6.48	165.59	 3.92%	 4.08	12% 199.64	28
07/06/08	167.85	 6.05	173.91	 3.48%	 3.61	 7% 193.15	27

06/29/08	179.07	 6.84	185.91	 3.68%	 3.82	 7% 187.10	26
06/22/08	170.37	 6.53	176.90	 3.69%	 3.83	 6% 180.27	25
06/15/08	221.08	 9.80	230.88	 4.25%	 4.43	 7% 173.74	24
06/08/08	170.76	 7.72	178.48	 4.32%	 4.52	 9% 163.94	23
06/01/08	178.53	 7.74	186.26	 4.15%	 4.33	10% 156.22	22
05/25/08	205.45	 9.53	214.98	 4.43%	 4.64	 7% 148.48	21
05/18/08	174.51	 6.15	180.66	 3.40%	 3.52	 5% 138.95	20
05/11/08	171.94	 5.05	177.00	 2.86%	 2.94	 5% 132.80	19
05/04/08	162.95	 5.45	168.40	 3.24%	 3.35	 5% 127.75	18
04/27/08	211.60	13.51	225.11	 6.00%	 6.38	 6% 122.29	17
04/20/08	202.24	 7.20	209.45	 3.44%	 3.56	 6% 108.79	16
04/13/08	237.42	 5.52	242.94	 2.27%	 2.32	 5% 101.58	15
04/06/08	247.44	 5.75	253.19	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% 96.06	14

03/30/08	144.13	 6.99	151.12	 4.63%	 4.85	 8% 90.31	13
03/23/08	247.59	13.66	261.25	 5.23%	 5.52	 6% 83.32	12
03/16/08	238.92	 8.51	247.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% 69.66	11
03/09/08	207.91	 4.83	212.74	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% 61.15	10
03/02/08	212.30	 6.23	218.53	 2.85%	 2.94 	 4% 56.31	9
02/24/08	221.98	 7.91	229.89	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% 50.08	8
02/17/08	212.15	 6.23	218.38	 2.85%	 2.94	 4% 42.17	7
02/10/08	226.24	 5.26	231.50	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% 35.94	6
02/03/08	210.57	 4.90	215.46	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% 30.68	5
01/27/08	200.95	 5.90	206.85	 2.85%	 2.94	 4% 25.79	4
01/20/08	181.94	 6.48	188.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% 19.89	3
01/13/08	170.58	 6.08	176.66	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% 13.41	2
01/06/08	205.82	 7.33	213.15	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%  7.33	1

All data now calculated from new HMM model.  
2008 and 2008 data prior to 4/26/09 provided from HMM staff to match magnitude of newly published 2009 weekly numbers.



These charts completely include the week ending 1/4/09 data in this years 2009 figures and are counting the 12/28/08 through 12/31/09 data as 2009 revenues . So its reasonable to attribute $10 M of Blu-ray sales on these charts and $100 M in DVD sales that occurred during those days as 2008 sales. These charts show those days as being attributed to YTD 2009 sales and not EOY 2008 sales.

Code:
          Year to year change from 2008 to 2009 

12/06/09  (BD+157.10% -19.16% DVD TL -10.00% YTY)
11/29/09  (BD+222.04%  -7.89% DVD TL  +1.02% YTY)
11/22/09  (BD+229.96% -14.46% DVD TL  -1.03% YTY)
11/15/09  (BD+164.14% -15.23% DVD TL  -4.33% YTY)
11/08/09  (BD+231.40%  +2.65% DVD TL +13.90% YTY) 
11/01/09  (BD+181.76%  +4.35% DVD TL +14.03% YTY)
10/25/09  (BD+184.88% +23.95% DVD TL +35.91% YTY)		
10/18/09  (BD +81.65%  -7.25% DVD TL  -0.87% YTY)
10/11/09  (BD+195.46%  -9.88% DVD TL  -2.40% YTY)
10/04/09  (BD +05.53% -16.47% DVD TL -14.40% YTY)  
09/27/09  (BD +62.41% -26.29% DVD TL -21.97% YTY)  	
09/20/09  (BD+273.38% +16.68% DVD TL +27.60% YTY)  		
09/13/09  (BD +70.56% -32.36% DVD TL -27.83% YTY)  
09/06/09  (BD +93.21% -19.48% DVD TL -13.79% YTY) 
08/30/09  (BD +49.49% -20.04% DVD TL -17.29% YTY) 
08/23/09  (BD+143.65%  -6.80% DVD TL  -2.03% YTY) 
08/16/09  (BD+230.97% -15.34% DVD TL  -7.93% YTY) 
08/09/09  (BD+207.73%  -4.53% DVD TL  +1.64% YTY) 
08/02/09  (BD+324.65%  +3.65% DVD TL +16.62% YTY) 
07/26/09  (BD+471.79% +14.75% DVD TL +31.71% YTY) 
07/19/09  (BD +90.63% -17.43% DVD TL -13.48% YTY) 
07/12/09  (BD+149.25%  -8.85% DVD TL  -2.66% YTY)    
07/05/09  (BD +77.33% -14.03% DVD TL -10.85% YTY)
06/28/09  (BD+111.85% -19.60% DVD TL -14.77% YTY)
06/21/09  (BD+218.74% +37.35% DVD TL +44.04% YTY)
06/14/09  (BD+103.16% -14.69% DVD TL -09.69% YTY)
06/07/09  (BD+107.75% -06.83% DVD TL -01.87% YTY)
05/31/09  (BD+ 81.72% -17.58% DVD TL -13.45% YTY)
05/24/09  (BD+119.47% -13.10% DVD TL -07.23% YTY)
05/17/09  (BD+285.12% +07.71% DVD TL +17.15% YTY)
05/10/09  (BD+226.95% -03.90% DVD TL +02.69% YTY)
05/03/09  (BD+176.73% -05.24% DVD TL +00.66% YTY)
04/26/09  (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/19/09  (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/12/09  (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/05/09  (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)     
03/29/09  (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/22/09  (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/15/09  (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/08/09  (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/01/09  (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
02/22/09  (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/15/09  (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/08/09  (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/01/09  (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
01/25/09  (BD+165.35% -26.80% DVD TL -21.32% YTY)
01/18/09  (BD +62.99% -27.01% DVD TL -23.91% YTY)
01/11/09  (BD+207.95% -12.32% DVD TL - 4.75% YTY)
01/04/09  (BD+231.89% -12.88% DVD TL - 4.46% YTY)
Note:

Snow White Blu-ray sales include both packaging versions in DVD and Blu-ray style cases of the 3 Disc Blu-ray/DVD combo pack as Blu-ray format sales as per past practice of Nielsen Videoscan for mixed high definition and standard definition format packaging.

As of 7/19/2009 the pie chart published by HMM was changed to be a revenue market share graph instead of a top best selling 20 DVD title versus top 20 best selling Blu-ray title unit sales comparison.2009 numbers match published HMM issues. 2008 data has been revised 5/5/09. see this post for further information

These are based on the weekly Nielsen Videoscan first alert report numbers plus Home Media Magazine Research estimate of Wal-Mart system sales which are not part of the base Nielsen Videoscan first alert electronic point of sales report.












Last edited by Kosty; 12-11-2009 at 06:56 PM.
  #3  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:49 PM
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Blu-ray vs DVD revenue sales graphs from HMM data & top 20 unit %

updated thru 12/06/09 data

Graphs are based off of the weekly data as published in Home Media Magazine or provided as revised data for 2008 from HMM staff.

Last week on right











Last edited by Kosty; 12-11-2009 at 01:24 AM.
  #4  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:50 PM
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HMM reported Blu-ray weekly sales data

2008 to 2009 Year to Year Revenue Comparison Summary

Updated thru 12/06/09

Code:
 	   YTD x	YTD +%  (Week Ending 01/04/09 - 12/06/09)

Blu-ray    2.459      145.85 %
DVD	   0.919       -8.13 %
DVD+BD	   0.982       -1.77 %
Code:
 	   4QTD x	4QTD +% (Week Ending 10/04/09 - 12/06/09)

Blu-ray    2.576      157.58 %
DVD	   0.921       -7.86 %
DVD+BD	   1.017        1.65 %

2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Arranged by Year)

Code:
Date             DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
Week Ending   revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change 

    2009
12/06/09	268.40	46.80	315.20	14.85%	17.44 21.26%(BD+157.10% -19.16% DVD TL -10.00% YTY)
11/29/09	491.10	69.06	560.16	12.33%	14.06 11.68%(BD+222.04%  -7.89% DVD TL  +1.02% YTY)
11/22/09	210.66	47.25	257.91	18.32%	22.43 21.78%(BD+229.96% -14.46% DVD TL  -1.03% YTY)
11/15/09	203.76	41.03	244.79	16.76%	20.14 18.61%(BD+164.14% -15.23% DVD TL  -4.33% YTY)
11/08/09	167.93	28.06	195.99	14.32%	16.71 17.68%(BD+231.40%  +2.65% DVD TL +13.90% YTY) 		
11/01/09	170.30	26.52	196.82	13.47%	15.57 13.93%(BD+181.76%  +4.35% DVD TL +14.03% YTY)
10/25/09	210.66	38.86	249.52	15.57%	18.45 19.75%(BD+184.88% +23.95% DVD TL +35.91% YTY)		
10/18/09	165.63	25.09	190.72	13.16%	15.15 16.47%(BD +81.65%  -7.25% DVD TL  -0.87% YTY)
10/11/09        156.82  32.70   189.52  17.25%  20.85 29.44%(BD+195.46%  -9.88% DVD TL  -2.40% YTY)
10/04/09        166.44  21.81   188.25  11.59%  13.10 14.85%(BD +05.53% -16.47% DVD TL -14.40% YTY)  4Q 2009
09/27/09        120.99  13.66   134.65  10.14%  11.29 15.11%(BD +62.41% -26.29% DVD TL -21.97% YTY)  
09/20/09        179.20  25.49   204.69  12.45%  14.22 16.67%(BD+273.38% +16.68% DVD TL +27.60% YTY)  	
09/13/09        103.87  12.05   115.92  10.40%  11.60 14.40%(BD +70.56% -32.36% DVD TL -27.83% YTY)  
09/06/09        123.46  15.76   139.22  11.32%  12.77 17.39%(BD +93.21% -19.48% DVD TL -13.79% YTY) 
08/30/09        137.08  10.52   147.60   7.13%   7.67  9.32%(BD +49.49% -20.04% DVD TL -17.29% YTY) 
08/23/09        154.87  13.26   168.13   7.89%   8.56  8.80%(BD+143.65%  -6.80% DVD TL  -2.03% YTY) 
08/16/09        129.88  15.75   145.63  10.82%  12.13 13.36%(BD+230.97% -15.34% DVD TL  -7.93% YTY) 
08/09/09        165.75  16.11   181.86   8.86%   9.72 11.34%(BD+207.73%  -4.53% DVD TL  +1.64% YTY) 
08/02/09        178.70  30.31   209.01  14.50%  16.96 18.51%(BD+324.65%  +3.65% DVD TL +16.62% YTY) 
07/26/09	183.30  35.21   218.51  16.11%  19.21   20% (BD+471.79% +14.75% DVD TL +31.71% YTY) 
07/19/09	127.89	11.18	139.07	 8.04%	 8.74	13% (BD +90.63% -17.43% DVD TL -13.48% YTY) 
07/12/09	145.03	16.16	161.19	10.03%	11.14	13% (BD+149.25%  -8.85% DVD TL  -2.66% YTY) 
07/05/09        144.31  10.73   155.04   6.92%   7.44   10% (BD +77.33% -14.03% DVD TL -10.85% YTY) 3Q 2009
06/28/09        143.97  14.48   158.45   9.14%  10.06   12% (BD+111.85% -19.60% DVD TL -14.77% YTY)
06/21/09        234.00  20.80   254.80   8.16%   8.89    8% (BD+218.74% +37.35% DVD TL +44.04% YTY)
06/14/09        188.59	19.92	208.51	 9.55%	10.56	13% (BD+103.16% -14.69% DVD TL -09.69% YTY)
06/07/09	159.10	16.03	175.13	 9.15%	10.08	12% (BD+107.75% -06.83% DVD TL -01.87% YTY)
05/31/09	147.14	14.06	161.20	 8.72%	 9.56	12% (BD +81.72% -17.58% DVD TL -13.45% YTY)
05/24/09	178.53	20.92	199.45	10.49%	11.72	14% (BD+119.47% -13.10% DVD TL -07.23% YTY)
05/17/09	187.96	23.69	211.65	11.19%	12.60	15% (BD+285.12% +07.71% DVD TL +17.15% YTY)
05/10/09	165.23	16.52	181.75	 9.09%	10.00	10% (BD+226.95% -03.90% DVD TL +02.69% YTY)
05/03/09	154.42	15.09	169.51	 8.90%	 9.77	10% (BD+176.73% -05.24% DVD TL +00.66% YTY)
04/26/09        165.58	19.42	184.99	10.50%	11.73	14% (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/19/09	135.79	10.79	146.58	 7.36%	 7.94	12% (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/12/09	296.43	19.56	315.99	 6.19%	 6.60	 7% (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/05/09	246.24	17.24	263.47	 6.54%	 7.00	10% (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)  (2Q 2009)   
03/29/09	264.73	24.03	288.76	 8.32%	 9.08	13% (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/22/09	237.16	18.79	255.95	 7.34%	 7.92	 9% (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/15/09	208.32	16.75	225.06	 7.44%	 8.04	12% (BD  +51.53% ] -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/08/09	167.71	10.61	178.32	 5.95%	 6.33	10% (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/01/09	186.58	11.85	198.43	 5.97%	 6.35	 8% (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
02/22/09	191.22	13.28	204.50	 6.49%	 6.94	10% (BD  +29.31%  -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/15/09	207.02	10.78	217.80	 4.95%	 5.21	 8% (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/08/09	191.84	11.00	202.84   5.42%   5.73    7% (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/01/09	155.74	10.27	166.01	 6.18%	 6.59	14% (BD  +68.41%  -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
01/25/09	147.10	15.66	162.76	 9.62%	10.65	17% (BD +165.35%  -26.80% DVD TL -21.32% YTY)
01/18/09	132.80	10.56	143.37	 7.37%	 7.95	12% (BD  +62.99%  -27.01% DVD TL -23.91% YTY)
01/11/09	149.56	18.71	168.27	11.12%	12.51	13% (BD +207.95% ] -12.32% DVD TL - 4.75% YTY)
01/04/09	179.32	24.33	203.65	11.95%	13.57	16% (BD +231.89%  -12.88% DVD TL - 4.46% YTY)

    2008
12/07/08	332.01	18.20	350.21	 5.20%	 5.48	11%
11/16/08	240.35	15.53	255.89	 6.07%	 6.46	 9%
11/09/08	163.60	 8.47	172.06	 4.92%	 5.17	 8%
11/02/08	163.19	 9.41	172.60	 5.45%	 5.77	 8%
10/26/08	169.96	13.64	183.60	 7.43%	 8.03	12%
10/19/08	178.58	13.81	192.40	 7.18%	 7.74	11%
10/12/08	174.01	11.07	185.08	 5.98%	 6.36	10%
10/05/08	199.25	20.67	219.91	 9.40%	10.37	13%
09/28/08	164.14	 8.41	172.56	 4.87%	 5.12	 6%
09/21/08	153.58	 6.83	160.41	 4.26%	 4.44	 8% 
09/14/08	153.56	 7.07	160.63	 4.40%	 4.60	 8%
09/07/08        153.33   8.16   161.49   5.05%   5.32   12%
08/31/08	171.44	 7.02	178.45	 3.93%	 4.09	 6% 
08/24/08	166.16	 5.44	171.60	 3.17%	 3.27	 6%
08/17/08	153.41	 4.76	158.18	 3.01%	 3.10	 8%
08/10/08	173.62	 5.31	178.92	 2.97%	 3.06	 7%  
08/03/08	172.40	 7.26	179.66	 4.04%	 4.21	10%  
07/27/08	159.73	 6.16	165.89	 3.71%	 3.85	 9%
07/20/08	154.88	 5.86	160.74	 3.65%	 3.79	 8%
07/06/08	167.85	 6.05	173.91	 3.48%	 3.61	 7%
06/29/08	179.07	 6.84	185.91	 3.68%	 3.82	 7%
06/22/08	170.37	 6.53	176.90	 3.69%	 3.83	 6% 
06/15/08	221.08	 9.80	230.88	 4.25%	 4.43	 7%
06/08/08	170.76	 7.72	178.48	 4.32%	 4.52	 9%
06/01/08	178.53	 7.74	186.26	 4.15%	 4.33	10% 
05/25/08	205.45	 9.53	214.98	 4.43%	 4.64	 7%  
05/18/08	174.51	 6.15	180.66	 3.40%	 3.52	 5%  
05/11/08	171.94	 5.05	177.00	 2.86%	 2.94	 5%
05/04/08	162.95	 5.45	168.40	 3.24%	 3.35	 5%
04/27/08	211.60	13.51	225.11	 7.93%	 6.38	 6%
04/20/08	202.24	 7.20	209.45	 3.44%	 3.56	 6%
04/13/08	237.42	 5.52	242.94	 2.27%	 2.32	 5%
04/06/08	247.44	 5.75	253.19	 2.27%	 2.32	 4%
03/30/08	144.13	 6.99	151.12	 4.63%	 4.85	 8%
03/23/08	247.59	13.66	261.25	 5.23%	 5.52	 6%
03/16/08	238.92	 8.51	247.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%
03/09/08	207.91	 4.83	212.74	 2.27%	 2.32	 4%
03/02/08	212.30	 6.23	218.53	 2.85%	 2.94 	 4%
02/24/08	221.98	 7.91	229.89	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%
02/17/08	212.15	 6.23	218.38	 2.85%	 2.94	 4%
02/10/08	226.24	 5.26	231.50	 2.27%	 2.32	 4%
02/03/08	210.57	 4.90	215.46	 2.27%	 2.32	 4%
01/27/08	200.95	 5.90	206.85	 2.85%	 2.94	 4%
01/20/08	181.94	 6.48	188.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%
01/13/08	170.58	 6.08	176.66	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%
01/06/08	205.82	 7.33	213.15	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%
2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Matched Weeks)

Code:
Upcoming weeks 2009 Total Box Office Power (TBO) and percentage change from the TBO of the matching week in 2008 $M 

12/20/09 TBO $517.20 +24.57% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 
12/13/09 TBO $493.38 -28.00% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

Date             DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
Week Ending   revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change

12/06/09	268.40	46.80	315.20	14.85%	17.44 21.26%(BD+157.10% -19.16% DVD TL -10.00% YTY)
12/07/08	332.01	18.20	350.21	 5.20%	 5.48	11% TBO $303.84 -27.87%

11/29/09	491.10	69.06	560.16	12.33%	14.06 11.68%(BD+222.04%  -7.89% DVD TL  +1.02% YTY)
11/30/08	533.17	21.31	554.48	 3.84%	 4.00	10% TBO $326.11 -4.61% 

11/22/09	210.66	47.25	257.91	18.32%	22.43 21.78%(BD+229.96% -14.46% DVD TL  -1.03% YTY)
11/23/08	246.27	14.32	260.59	 5.49%	 5.81	11% TBO $384.56 +1.73% 

11/15/09	203.76	41.03	244.79	16.76%	20.14 18.61%(BD+164.14% -15.23% DVD TL  -4.33% YTY)
11/16/08	240.35	15.53	255.89	 6.07%	 6.46	 9% TBO $381.89 +323.88%

11/08/09	167.93	28.06	195.99	14.32%	16.71 17.68%(BD+231.40%  +2.65% DVD TL +13.90% YTY) 				
11/09/08	163.60	 8.47	172.06	 4.92%	 5.17	 8% TBO $255.41 - 26.60% 

11/01/09	170.30	26.52	196.82	13.47%	15.57 13.93%(BD+181.76%  +4.35% DVD TL +14.03% YTY)
11/02/08	163.19	 9.41	172.60	 5.45%	 5.77	 8% TBO $257.09 +104.27%  

10/25/09	210.66	38.86	249.52	15.57%	18.45 19.75%(BD+184.88% +23.95% DVD TL +35.91% YTY)		
10/26/08	169.96	13.64	183.60	 7.43%	 8.03	12% TBO $405.08 +107.89%

10/18/09	165.63	25.09	190.72	13.16%	15.15 16.47%(BD +81.65%  -7.25% DVD TL  -0.87% YTY)
10/19/08	178.58	13.81	192.40	 7.18%	 7.74	11% TBO $257.09 -23.56%   

10/11/09        156.82  32.70   189.52  17.25%  20.85 29.44%(BD+195.46%  -9.88% DVD TL  -2.40% YTY) 
10/12/08	174.01	11.07	185.08	 5.98%	 6.36	10% TBO $66.13  -60.84%  

10/04/09        166.44  21.81   188.25  11.59%  13.10 14.85%(BD +05.53% -16.47% DVD TL -14.40% YTY)  
10/05/08	199.25	20.67	219.91	 9.40%	10.37	13% TBO $203.51 -46.62% [/COLOR][/B] revised by HMM in Oct 12 issus

09/27/09        120.99  13.66   134.65  10.14%  11.29 15.11%(BD +62.41% -26.29% DVD TL -21.97% YTY)  
09/28/08	164.14	 8.41	172.56	 4.87%	 5.12	 6% TBO $80.90 -58.42%  

09/20/09        179.20  25.49   204.69  12.45%  14.22 16.67%(BD+273.38% +16.68% DVD TL +27.60% YTY)  
09/21/08	153.58	 6.83	160.41	 4.26%	 4.44	 8% TBO 192.54 +37.98%  

09/13/09        103.87  12.05   115.92  10.40%  11.60 14.40%(BD +70.56% -32.36% DVD TL -27.83% YTY)  
09/14/08	153.56	 7.07	160.63	 4.40%	 4.60	 8% TBO $39.35 -65.83% 

09/06/09        123.46  15.76   139.22  11.32%  12.77 17.39%(BD +93.21% -19.48% DVD TL -13.79% YTY) 
09/07/08	153.33	 8.16	161.49	 5.05%	 5.32	12% TBO $72.65 1072.14%  

08/30/09        137.08  10.52   147.60   7.13%   7.67  9.32%(BD +49.49% -20.04% DVD TL -17.29% YTY) 
08/31/08	171.44	 7.02	178.45	 3.93%	 4.09	 6% TBO $93.59  -10.41%  

08/23/09        154.87  13.26   168.13   7.89%   8.56  8.80%(BD+143.65%  -6.80% DVD TL  -2.03% YTY) 
08/24/08	166.16	 5.44	171.60	 3.17%	 3.27	 6% TBO $113.20 -23.45%  

08/16/09        129.88  15.75   145.63  10.82%  12.13 13.36%(BD+230.97% -15.34% DVD TL  -7.93% YTY) 
08/17/08	153.41	 4.76	158.18	 3.01%	 3.10	 8% TBO $139.36 +1,365.39 % 

08/09/09        165.75  16.11   181.86   8.86%   9.72 11.34%(BD+207.73%  -4.53% DVD TL  +1.64% YTY) TBO $167.15  +126.15% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)
08/10/08	173.62	 5.31	178.92	 2.97%	 3.06	 7% TBO $167.15  +126.15% 

08/02/09        178.70  30.31   209.01  14.50%  16.96 18.51%(BD+324.65%  +3.65% DVD TL +16.62% YTY) 
08/03/08	172.40	 7.26	179.66	 4.04%	 4.21	10% TBO $168.97  +112.98 % 

07/26/09	183.30  35.21   218.51  16.11%  19.21   20% (BD+471.79% +14.75% DVD TL +31.71% YTY) 
07/27/08	159.73	 6.16	165.89	 3.71%	 3.85	 9% TBO $183.55  +126.15 % 

07/19/09	127.89	11.18	139.07	 8.04%	 8.74	13% (BD +90.63% -17.43% DVD TL -13.48% YTY) 
07/20/08	154.88	 5.86	160.74	 3.65%	 3.79	 8% TBO  $55.39   +1.86 % 

07/12/09	145.03	16.16	161.19	10.03%	11.14	13% (BD+149.25%  -8.85% DVD TL  -2.66% YTY)
07/13/08	159.11	 6.48	165.59	 3.92%	 4.08	12% TBO $154.40 +183.95 % 

07/05/09        144.31  10.73   155.04   6.92%   7.44   10% (BD +77.33% -14.03% DVD TL -10.85% YTY)    3Q 2009
07/06/08	167.85	 6.05	173.91	 3.48%	 3.61	 7% TBO  $43.28 -70.75% 

06/28/09        143.97  14.48   158.45   9.14%  10.06   12% (BD+111.85% -19.60% DVD TL -14.77% YTY)
06/29/08	179.07	 6.84	185.91	 3.68%	 3.82	 7% TBO  $99.79  -7.25% 

06/21/09        234.00  20.80   254.80   8.16%   8.89    8% (BD+218.74% +37.35% DVD TL +44.04% YTY)
06/22/08	170.37	 6.53	176.90	 3.69%	 3.83	 6% TBO $155.51 + 24.76% 

06/14/09        188.59	19.92	208.51	 9.55%	10.56	13% (BD+103.16% -14.69% DVD TL -09.69% YTY)
06/15/08	221.08	 9.80	230.88	 4.25%	 4.43	 7% TBO $190.70 - 7.25% 

06/07/09	159.10	16.03	175.13	 9.15%	10.08	12% (BD+107.75% -06.83% DVD TL -01.87% YTY)
06/08/08	170.76	 7.72	178.48	 4.32%	 4.52	 9% TBO $145.48 + 39.55% 

05/31/09	147.14	14.06	161.20	 8.72%	 9.56	12% (BD +81.72% -17.58% DVD TL -13.45% YTY)
06/01/08	178.53	 7.74	186.26	 4.15%	 4.33	10% TBO  $16.73 - 60.86% 

05/24/09	178.53	20.92	199.45	10.49%	11.72	14% (BD+119.47% -13.10% DVD TL -07.23% YTY)
05/25/08	205.45	 9.53	214.98	 4.43%	 4.64	 7% TBO $280.41 + 23.90%    

05/17/09	187.96	23.69	211.65	11.19%	12.60	15% (BD+285.12% +07.71% DVD TL +17.15% YTY)
05/18/08	174.51	 6.15	180.66	 3.40%	 3.52	 5% TBO $189.49 +138.12% 

05/10/09	165.23	16.52	181.75	 9.09%	10.00	10% (BD+226.95% -03.90% DVD TL +02.69% YTY)
05/11/08	171.94	 5.05	177.00	 2.86%	 2.94	 5% TBO $142.40 +28.03% 

05/03/09	154.42	15.09	169.51	 8.90%	 9.77	10% (BD+176.73% -05.24% DVD TL +00.66% YTY)
05/04/08	162.95	 5.45	168.40	 3.24%	 3.35	 5% TBO $159.66 +00.15% 

04/26/09	165.58	19.42	184.99	10.50%	11.73	14% (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/27/08	211.60	13.51	225.11	 7.93%	 6.38	 6% TBO $81.61  -56.44% 

04/19/09	135.79	10.79	146.58	 7.36%	 7.94	12% (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/20/08	202.24	 7.20	209.45	 3.44%	 3.56	 6% TBO $53.66  -73.39% 

04/12/09	296.43	19.56	315.99	 6.19%	 6.60	 7%[/COLOR] (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/13/08	237.42	 5.52	242.94	 2.27%	 2.32	 5% TBO $271.84 +124.49%  

04/05/09	246.24	17.24	263.47	 6.54%	 7.00	10% (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)  (2Q 2009)   
04/06/08	247.44	 5.75	253.19	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO $357.74 +32.79% 
 
03/29/09	264.73	24.03	288.76	 8.32%	 9.08	13% (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/30/08	144.13	 6.99	151.12	 4.63%	 4.85	 8% TBO 168.37 +306.91%   
  
03/22/09	237.16	18.79	255.95	 7.34%	 7.92	 9% (BD +05.89%[/COLOR] -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/23/08	247.59	13.66	261.25	 5.23%	 5.52	 6% TBO 316.44 - 29.41%  

03/15/09	208.32	16.75	225.06	 7.44%	 8.04 12% (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/16/08	238.92	 8.51	247.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% TBO 174.71   49.35% 

03/08/09	167.71	10.61	178.32	 5.95%	 6.33	10%[/COLOR] (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/09/08	207.91	 4.83	212.74	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO 146.86 1118.69% 

03/01/09	186.58	11.85	198.43	 5.97%	 6.35	 8% (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
03/02/08	212.30	 6.23	218.53	 2.85%	 2.94 	 4% TBO  23.05  -83.72% 

02/22/09	191.22	13.28	204.50	 6.49%	 6.94	10% (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/24/08	221.98	 7.91	229.89	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% TBO 220.54  +14.84% 

02/15/09	207.02	10.78	217.80	 4.95%	 5.21	 8% (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/17/08	212.15	 6.23	218.38	 2.85%	 2.94	 4% TBO  90.74  -47.72% 

02/08/09	191.84	11.00	202.84	 5.42%	 5.73	 7% (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/10/08	226.24	 5.26	231.50	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO 298.34  +230.18% 

02/01/09	155.74	10.27	166.01	 6.18%	 6.59	14% (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
02/03/08	210.57	 4.90	215.46	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO 1,994.81 +14.19% 

01/25/09	147.10	15.66	162.76	 9.62%	10.65	17% (BD+165.35% -26.80% DVD TL -21.32% YTY)
01/27/08	200.95	 5.90	206.85	 2.85%	 2.94	 4%                         

01/18/09	132.80	10.56	143.37	 7.37%	 7.95	12% (BD +62.99% -27.01% DVD TL -23.91% YTY)
01/20/08	181.94	 6.48	188.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%                                

01/11/09	149.56	18.71	168.27	11.12%	12.51	13% (BD+207.95% -12.32% DVD TL - 4.75% YTY)
01/13/08	170.58	 6.08	176.66	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%                           

01/04/09	179.32	24.33	203.65	11.95%	13.57	16% (BD+231.89% -12.88% DVD TL - 4.46% YTY)
01/06/08	205.82	 7.33	213.15	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%
2008 to 2009 YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS
Code:
Date Range                 DVD    Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
Week Ending             revenue   revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

TOTAL FOR PERIOD
2009
4QTD 10/04/09-12/06/09  2,211.70   377.18   2,588.88   14.57%   17.05  18.55%
 YTD 01/04/09-12/06/09  8,928.12 1,028.49   9,956.61   10.33%   11.52  13.56%

2008
4QTD 10/05/08-12/07/08  2,400.38   146.43   2,546.82    5.75%    6.10  10.30%
EO4Q 10/05/08-12/28/08  3,937.46   259.90   4,197.36    6.19%    6.60  10.85%
 YTD 01/06/08-12/07/08  9,718.06   418.34  10,136.39    4.13%    4.30   7.14%
 EOY 01/06/08-12/28/08 11,255.13   531.80  11,786.93    4.51%    4.72   7.46%

WEEKLY AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
Average 4QTD 2009         221.17    37.72     258.89   14.57%   17.05  18.55%
Average  YTD 2009         182.21    20.99     203.20   10.33%   11.52  13.56%
2008
Average 4QTD 2008         240.04    14.64     254.68    5.75%    6.10  10.30%
Average EO4Q 2008         302.88    19.99     322.87    6.19%    6.60  10.85%
Average  YTD 2008         198.33     8.54     206.87    4.13%    4.30   7.14%
Average  EOY 2008         216.44    10.23     226.67    4.51%    4.72   7.46%

EO4Q 2008 AVERAGES (12 weeks, average per week)  10/05/08 thru  12/28/08
EOY  2008 AVERAGES (52 weeks, average per week)  01/06/08 thru  12/28/08)











Week ending 12/06/09 revenue charts and graphs update complete

Last edited by Kosty; 12-11-2009 at 07:01 PM.
  #5  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:50 PM
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Top 20 Unit Sales Estimates (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Top 20 unit percentages current thru week ending 11/15/09

(Note these usually lag the revenue charts for most of the week)

Scroll bar to see complete data set.
Code:
All units and % are top 20 titles that week for each format
BD% on chart is BD/(BD+DVD)% of top 20 units (the old pie chart %)

Date   DVDTop20  DVD%  TotalTop20  BD%    BDTop20  BD/DVD*100       

2009
11/15 10,529,835 81.39% 12,937,505 18.61% 2,407,670 22.87 Up Monsters Inc
11/08  7,976,987 82.32%  9,690,217 17.68% 1,713,230 21.48 G.I. Joe
11/01  7,235,173 86.07%  8,406,150 13.93% 1,170,977 16.18 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
10/25  7,542,412 80.25%  9,398,644 19.75% 1,856,232 24.61 Transformer 2: Revenge of the Fallen
10/18  4,931,164 83.53%  5,903,465 16.47%  972,301  19.72 The Proposal  Land of the Lost 
10/11  2,896,009 70.56%  4,104,321 29.44% 1,208,312 41.72 Snow White Blu-ray DVD combo pack
10/04  4,317,022 85.15%  5,069,903 14.85%  752,881  17.44 Monsters vs Aliens  The Wizard of Oz
9/27   2,577,976 84.89%  3,036,843 15.11%  458,867  17.80 Ghosts of Girl Friends Past
9/20   4,577,388 83.33%  5,493,085 16.67%  915,697  20.00 X-Men Origins: Wolverine
9/13   1,899,157 85.60%  2,218,641 14.40%  319,484  16.82 Crank 2: High Voltage
9/06   2,713,384 82.61%  3,284,571 17.39%  571,187  21.05 State of Play Gladiator Braveheart
8/30   2,685,638 90.68%  2,961,665  9.32%  276,027  10.28 Hannah Montana: The Movie
8/23   3,384,817 91.20%  3,711,422  8.80%  326,605   9.65 Hannah Montana: The Movie
8/16   2,895,711 86.64%  3,342,233 13.36%  446,522  15.42 I Love You, Man 17 Again
8/09   3,271,402 88.66%  3,689,829 11.34%  418,427  12.79 Race to Witch Mountain
8/02   3,606,723 81.49%  4,425,970 18.51%  819,247  22.71 Fast & Furious
7/26   3,469,627  80%    4,337,034  20%    867,407  25.00 Watchmen Coraline
7/19   2,013,710  87%    2,314,609  13%    300,899  14.94 The Haunting in Connecticut (pie chart changed by HMM)
7/12   2,563,408  87%    2,946,446  13%    383,038  14.94 Knowing Push
7/05   1,999,249  90%    2,221,388  10%    222,139  11.11 12 Rounds
6/28   2,963,546  88%    3,367,666  12%    404,120  13.64 Confessions of a Shopaholic  
6/21   5,421,682  92%    5,893,133   8%    471,451   8.70 Friday the 13th
6/14   5,209,020  87%    5,987,379  13%    778,359  14.94 Gran Torino
6/07   3,970,841  88%    4,512,319  12%    541,478  13.64 He's Just Not Thank Into You
5/31   3,433,670  88%    3,901,898  12%    468,228  13.64 no major new studio releases
5/24   6,558,345  86%    7,625,983  14%  1,067,638  16.28 Paul Blart: Mall Cop  Valkyrie
5/17   5,559,002  85%    6,540,002  15%    981,000  17.65 Taken Underworld: Rise of the Lycans
5/10   4,429,829  90%    4,922,032  10%    492,203  11.11 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5/03   4,334,922  90%    4,816,580  10%    481,658  11.11 Bride Wars Hotel for Dogs
4/26   3,884,888  86%    4,517,312  14%    632,424  16.28 Notorius The Wrestler 
4/19   3,314,166  88%    3,766,098  12%    451,932  13.64 The Spirit
4/12   8,277,770  93%    8,900,828   7%    623,058   7.53 Bedtime Stories (Easter Sales) 
4/05   5,721,690  90%    6,357,433  10%    635,743  11.11 Marley & Me SlumDog
3/29   6,529,305  87%    7,504,948  13%    975,643  14.94 Quantum of Solace
3/22   7,520,004  91%    8,263,741   9%    743,737   9.89 Twilight (not sold at Wal-Mart for Blu-ray version, BD estimate probably 40-50K high)
3/15   5,435,960  88%    6,177,227  12%    741,267  13.64 Pinocchio 
3/08   3,849,449  90%    4,277,166  10%    427,717  11.11 Beverly Hills Chihuahua
3/01   3,335,531  92%    3,625,577   8%	  290,046   8.70 
2/22   4,125,505  90%    4,583,894  10%    458,389  11.11 High School Musical 3: Senior Year
2/15   4,770,305  92%    5,185,114   8%    414,809   8.70
2/08   5,616,864  93%    6,039,639   7%    422,775   7.53 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
2/01   3,735,997  86%    4,344,183  14%    608,186  16.28 Open Season 2
1/25   2,930,532  83%    3,530,761  17%    600,229  20.48 Max Payne
1/18   3,275,945  88%    3,722,665  12%    446,720  13.64 Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys
1/11   4,154,503  87%    4,775,291  13%    620,788  14.94 Pineapple Express
1/04   4,733,578  84%    5,635,212  16%    901,634  19.05 (1Q 2009) Eagle Eye

2009 Above ^ 2008 Below v

12/28 10,029,134  87%  11,527,740  13%  1,498,606  14.94 (4Q 2008)                                                                         
12/21 14,589,744  89%  16,392,971  11%  1,803,227  12.36
12/14 15,656,259  86%  18,204,952  14%  2,548,693  16.28
12/07 13,065,998  89%  14,680,897  11%  1,614,899  12.36
11/30 13,891,705  90%  15,435,228  10%  1,543,523  11.11
11/23 12,762,159  89%  14,339,504  11%  1,577,345  12.36 
11/16  8,951,543  91%   9,836,860   9%    885,317   9.89
11/09  4,813,398  92%   5,231,954   8%    418,556   8.70  
11/02  5,084,812  92%   5,526,970   8%    442,158   8.70
10/26  5,870,781  88%   6,671,342  12%    800,561  13.64
10/19  5,515,943  89%   6,197,689  11%    681,746  12.36          
10/12  5,022,723  90%   5,580,803  10%    558,080  11.11          
10/05  7,645,705  87%   8,788,167  13%  1,142,462  14.94  (4Q 2008)	

9/28   3,563,085  94%   3,790,516   6%    227,431   6.38  (3Q 2008) 	      
9/21   2,660,810  92%   2,892,185   8%    231,375   8.70 	       
9/14   2,905,757  92%   3,158,432   8%    252,675   8.70   	     
9/07   2,237,375  88%   2,542,472  12%    305,097  13.60	       
8/31   3,700,328  94%   3,936,519   6%    236,191   6.38 	       
8/24   2,721,414  94%   2,895,121   6%    173,707   6.38 	       
8/17   1,300,437  92%   1,413,518   8%    113,081   8.70	    
8/10   1,904,530  93%   2,047,882   7%    143,352   7.53 	      
8/03   2,410,745  90%   2,678,606  10%    267,861  11.11	      
7/27   1,999,902  91%   2,197,695   9%    197,793   9.89	     
7/20   2,661,096  92%   2,892,496   8%    231,400   8.70	      
7/13   2,161,864  88%   2,456,664  12%    294,800  13.64 	       
7/06   2,344,112  93%   2,520,551   7%    176,439   7.53 (3Q 2008)    

6/29   3,387,810  93%   3,642,806   7%    254,996   7.53 (2Q 2008)	    
6/22   2,941,032  94%   3,128,757   6%    187,725   6.38   
6/15   4,549,086  93%   4,891,490   7%    342,404   7.53 
6/08   2,924,484  91%   3,213,719   9%    289,235   9.89     
6/01   2,969,115  90%   3,299,017  10%    329,902  11.11     
5/25   6,032,181  93%   6,486,216   7%    454,035   7.53    
5/18   4,116,119  95%   4,332,757   5%    216,638   7.53     
5/11   3,436,325  95%   3,617,184   5%    180,859   5.36     
5/04   3,951,319  95%   4,159,283   5%    207,964   5.26      
4/27   3,704,727  94%   3,941,199   6%    236,472   6.38      
4/20   4,599,084  94%   4,892,643   6%    293,559   6.38 (2Q 2008)  
4/13   4,094,727  95%   4,310,239   5%    215,512   5.26
4/06   6,977,800  96%   7,268,542   4%    290,742   4.17

3/30   3,343,830  92%   3,634,598   8%    290,768   8.70 (1Q 2008)
3/23  11,933,888  94%  12,695,626   6%    761,738   6.38
3/16   6,523,737  96%   6,795,559   4%    271,822   4.17  (assumed 4% BD share)
3/09   3,943,451  96%   4,107,761   4%    164,310   4.17
3/02   5,272,493  96%   5,492,180   4%    219,687   4.17
2/24   5,009,987  96%   5,218,736   4%    208,749   4.17
2/17   4,716,726  96%   4,913,256   4%    196,530   4.17
2/10   3,528,678  96%   3,675,706   4%    147,028   4.17
2/03   2,022,469  96%   2,106,739   4%     84,270   4.17
1/27   3,307,632  96%   3,445,450   4%    137,818   4.17
1/20   2,997,845  96%   3,122,755   4%    124,910   4.17
1/13   3,484,803  96%   3,630,003   4%    145,200   4.17
1/06   4,702,519  96%   4,898,457   4%    195,938   4.17

1/6 thru 3/23 assumed at a high of 4% Blu-ray top 20 market share

2006 and 2007 data from SPHE report leaked to thedigitalbits.com that included actual unit figures for Blu-ray sold as reported by Nielsen Videoscan by week (not just top 20 titles)

Week Ending  Total Blu-ray units sold
03/18/07	65,722
03/11/07	37,733
03/04/07	49,243
02/25/07	56,825
02/18/07	57,772
02/11/07	45,326
02/04/07	45,723
01/28/07	47,803
01/21/07	53,050
01/14/07	45,754
01/07/07	44,779
12/31/06	50,848
12/24/06	66,112
12/17/06	36,375
12/10/06	25,090
12/03/06	21,583
11/26/06	15,007
11/19/06	15,012
11/12/06	5,776
11/05/06	6,430
10/29/06	4,920
10/22/06	4,326
10/15/06	4,123
10/08/06	3,253
10/01/06	3,109
Methodology and Detailed Notes: Top 20 DVD is from the-numbers.com, Blu-ray total is calculated by HMM pie chart share. These are best understood of the translation of the scale of the The-Numbers.com estimate of the total units sales of the bestselling 20 DVD title sold into Blu-ray and total units by assuming that the Nielsen Videoscan first alert pie chart top 20 DVD versus top 20 Blu-ray can be applied to that number to estimate Blu-ray sales. Even if magnitude is off scale trends are probably accurate.

Note that the 1Q 2008 numbers are probably even a bit high as 4% Blu-ray market share (the HMM 1/06 thru 4/20/08) is assumed for those weeks. It is also noted that The-numbers.com attempts to include Wal-Mart in its top 20 DVD figures while the HMM reported Nielsen Videoscan percentages do not.

In the particular case of the week of 3/22/09 where Wal-Mart did not sell the Blu-ray version of the weeks best selling DVD Twilight the numbers for Blu-ray are probably high by 40-50K. 3/29/09 is probably high by my estimate by half that amount or 20-25K.

Note: 3/23/08 was I Am Legend , Enchanted Bee Movie as top DVD sellers

3/15/09 was Pinocchio re release date

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...8/20080323.php

Calculations have been revised to take into account relative Blu-ray and DVD market shares.

As the Blu-ray top 20 share % is apparently a market share number, the total reported DVD units would have to be divided by the DVD market share (ie for week of 10/5/08 Blu-ray = 13%, DVD would be 87% market share) to get a total DVD + Blu-ray = total discs sold, that would then be multiplied out by the Blu-ray market share to get the top 20 Blu-ray units sold

In other words the calculation is
DVD top 20 unit sales numbers / DVD top 20 unit sales ratio = (BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers
then to get the Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ...
(BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers X Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ratio = BD top 20 unit sales numbers
or
(BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers - DVD top 20 unit sales numbers = BD top 20 unit sales numbers

(Same calculations would apply for individual Blu-ray sales of a title that is listed on the HMM weekly BD Market share chart where we also have the DVD sales for that title for the week on the-numbers DVD top 20 sales chart)


(BD/DVD*100 is a relative market share index of Blu-ray to DVD sales)
(BD/(DVD+DVD) is the Blu-ray market share expressed as a percentage)

NOTE:
As of 7/19/2009 the pie chart published by HMM was changed to be a revenue market share graph instead of a top best selling 20 DVD title versus top 20 best selling Blu-ray title unit sales comparison.

The top 20 unit Blu-ray marketshare for 7/19/09 was 13% and the top 20 unit marketshare for 7/26/09 was 20% instead of what was published on the HMM website homepage, digital online and print edition (8% and 16%).












Last edited by Kosty; 11-24-2009 at 03:57 PM.
  #6  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:50 PM
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Default

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Estimated Blu-ray Top 20 Units 2008 and 2009 trend graphs

Top 20 unit % updated thru 11/15/09 unit data:











Last edited by Kosty; 11-24-2009 at 03:52 PM.
  #7  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:50 PM
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Top 20 Unit Sales Estimate Year to Year Comparison Summary (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Top 20 Unit Sales Estimate Year to Year Comparison Summary (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Updated through 11/15/09 units data

Comparing the estimates for 1Q+2Q+3Q+4QTD 2009 versus 1Q+2Q+3Q+4QTD 2008 top 20 unit sales

Code:
 	   YTD x	YTD +%

Blu-ray	   2.26      +125.52%
DVD	   1.09	       +8.55%
DVD+BD	   1.17       +16.70%
Code:
Date   DVDTop20  DVD%  TotalTop20  BD%    BDTop20  BD/DVD*100       
2009
11/15 10,529,835 81.39% 12,937,505 18.61% 2,407,670 22.87 Up Monsters Inc
11/08  7,976,987 82.32%  9,690,217 17.68% 1,713,230 21.48 G.I. Joe
11/01  7,235,173 86.07%  8,406,150 13.93% 1,170,977 16.18 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
10/25  7,542,412 80.25%  9,398,644 19.75% 1,856,232 24.61 Transformer 2: Revenge of the Fallen
10/18  4,931,164 83.53%  5,903,465 16.47%  972,301  19.72 The Proposal Land of the Lost 
10/11  2,896,009 70.56%  4,104,321 29.44% 1,208,312 41.72 Snow White Blu-ray DVD combo pack
10/04  4,317,022 85.15%  5,069,903 14.85%  752,881  17.44 Monsters vs Aliens  The Wizard of Oz
9/27   2,577,976 84.89%  3,036,843 15.11%  458,867  17.80 Ghosts of Girl Friends Past
9/20   4,577,388 83.33%  5,493,085 16.67%  915,697  20.00 X-Men Origins: Wolverine
9/13   1,899,157 85.60%  2,218,641 14.40%  319,484  16.82 Crank 2: High Voltage
9/06   2,713,384 82.61%  3,284,571 17.39%  571,187  21.05 State of Play Gladiator Braveheart
8/30   2,685,638 90.68%  2,961,665  9.32%  276,027  10.28 Hannah Montana: The Movie
8/23   3,384,817 91.20%  3,711,422  8.80%  326,605   9.65 Hannah Montana: The Movie
8/16   2,895,711 86.64%  3,342,233 13.36%  446,522  15.42 I Love You, Man 17 Again
8/09   3,271,402 88.66%  3,689,829 11.34%  418,427  12.79 Race to Witch Mountain
8/02   3,606,723 81.49%  4,425,970 18.51%  819,247  22.71 Fast & Furious
7/26   3,469,627  80%    4,337,034  20%    867,407  25.00 Watchmen Coraline
7/19   2,013,710  87%    2,314,609  13%    300,899  14.94 The Haunting in Connecticut (pie chart changed by HMM)
7/12   2,563,408  87%    2,946,446  13%    383,038  14.94 Knowing Push
7/05   1,999,249  90%    2,221,388  10%    222,139  11.11 12 Rounds
6/28   2,963,546  88%    3,367,666  12%    404,120  13.64 Confessions of a Shopaholic  
6/21   5,421,682  92%    5,893,133   8%    471,451   8.70 Friday the 13th
6/14   5,209,020  87%    5,987,379  13%    778,359  14.94 Gran Torino
6/07   3,970,841  88%    4,512,319  12%    541,478  13.64 He's Just Not Thank Into You
5/31   3,433,670  88%    3,901,898  12%    468,228  13.64 no major new studio releases
5/24   6,558,345  86%    7,625,983  14%  1,067,638  16.28 Paul Blart: Mall Cop  Valkyrie
5/17   5,559,002  85%    6,540,002  15%    981,000  17.65 Taken Underworld: Rise of the Lycans
5/10   4,429,829  90%    4,922,032  10%    492,203  11.11 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5/03   4,334,922  90%    4,816,580  10%    481,658  11.11 Bride Wars Hotel for Dogs
4/26   3,884,888  86%    4,517,312  14%    632,424  16.28 Notorius The Wrestler 
4/19   3,314,166  88%    3,766,098  12%    451,932  13.64 The Spirit
4/12   8,277,770  93%    8,900,828   7%    623,058   7.53 Bedtime Stories (Easter Sales)
4/05   5,721,690  90%    6,357,433  10%    635,743  11.11 Marley & Me SlumDog
3/29   6,529,305  87%    7,504,948  13%    975,643  14.94 Quantum of Solace
3/22   7,520,004  91%    8,263,741   9%    743,737   9.89 Twilight (BD probably high)
3/15   5,435,960  88%    6,177,227  12%    741,267  13.64 Pinocchio 
3/08   3,849,449  90%    4,277,166  10%    427,717  11.11 Beverly Hills Chihuahua
3/01   3,335,531  92%    3,625,577   8%	   290,046   8.70 Sex Drive Body of Lies
2/22   4,125,505  90%    4,583,894  10%    458,389  11.11 High School Musical 3: Senior Year
2/15   4,770,305  92%    5,185,114   8%    414,809   8.70 Nights in Rodanthe
2/08   5,616,864  93%    6,039,639   7%    422,775   7.53 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
2/01   3,735,997  86%    4,344,183  14%    608,186  16.28 Open Season 2
1/25   2,930,532  83%    3,530,761  17%    600,229  20.48 Max Payne
1/18   3,275,945  88%    3,722,665  12%    446,720  13.64 Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys
1/11   4,154,503  87%    4,775,291  13%    620,788  14.94 Pineapple Express
1/04   4,733,578  84%    5,635,212  16%    901,634  19.05 Eagle Eye (1Q 2009)

2008
11/16  8,951,543  91%   9,836,860   9%    885,317   9.89
11/09  4,813,398  92%   5,231,954   8%    418,556   8.70  
11/02  5,084,812  92%   5,526,970   8%    442,158   8.70
10/26  5,870,781  88%   6,671,342  12%    800,561  13.64
10/19  5,515,943  89%   6,197,689  11%    681,746  12.36          
10/12  5,022,723  90%   5,580,803  10%    558,080  11.11          
10/05  7,645,705  87%   8,788,167  13%  1,142,462  14.94  (4Q 2008)	
9/28   3,563,085  94%   3,790,516   6%    227,431   6.38  (3Q 2008) 	      
9/21   2,660,810  92%   2,892,185   8%    231,375   8.70 	  
9/14   2,905,757  92%   3,158,432   8%    252,675   8.70  	 
9/07   2,237,375  88%   2,542,472  12%    305,097  13.60	       
8/31   3,700,328  94%   3,936,519   6%    236,191   6.38 	
8/24   2,721,414  94%   2,895,121   6%    173,707   6.38 
8/17   1,300,437  92%   1,413,518   8%    113,081   8.70
8/10   1,904,530  93%   2,047,882   7%    143,352   7.53 
8/03   2,410,745  90%   2,678,606  10%    267,861  11.11	   
7/27   1,999,902  91%   2,197,695   9%    197,793   9.89	
7/20   2,661,096  92%   2,892,496   8%    231,400   8.70	  
7/13   2,161,864  88%   2,456,664  12%    294,800  13.64
7/06   2,344,112  93%   2,520,551   7%    176,439   7.53 
6/29   3,387,810  93%   3,642,806   7%    254,996   7.53
6/22   2,941,032  94%   3,128,757   6%    187,725   6.38   
6/15   4,549,086  93%   4,891,490   7%    342,404   7.53 
6/08   2,924,484  91%   3,213,719   9%    289,235   9.89
6/01   2,969,115  90%   3,299,017  10%    329,902  11.11     
5/25   6,032,181  93%   6,486,216   7%    454,035   7.53
5/18   4,116,119  95%   4,332,757   5%    216,638   7.53     
5/11   3,436,325  95%   3,617,184   5%    180,859   5.36   
5/04   3,951,319  95%   4,159,283   5%    207,964   5.26   
4/27   3,704,727  94%   3,941,199   6%    236,472   6.38  
4/20   4,599,084  94%   4,892,643   6%    293,559   6.38
4/13   4,094,727  95%   4,310,239   5%    215,512   5.26
4/06   6,977,800  96%   7,268,542   4%    290,742   4.17 
3/30   3,343,830  92%   3,634,598   8%    290,768   8.70 (1Q 2008)
3/23  11,933,888  94%  12,695,626   6%    761,738   6.38 I Am Legend
3/16   6,523,737  96%   6,795,559   4%    271,822   4.17 
3/09   3,943,451  96%   4,107,761   4%    164,310   4.17 (4% assumed v)
3/02   5,272,493  96%   5,492,180   4%    219,687   4.17 
2/24   5,009,987  96%   5,218,736   4%    208,749   4.17
2/17   4,716,726  96%   4,913,256   4%    196,530   4.17
2/10   3,528,678  96%   3,675,706   4%    147,028   4.17
2/03   2,022,469  96%   2,106,739   4%     84,270   4.17
1/27   3,307,632  96%   3,445,450   4%    137,818   4.17
1/20   2,997,845  96%   3,122,755   4%    124,910   4.17
1/13   3,484,803  96%   3,630,003   4%    145,200   4.17
1/06   4,702,519  96%   4,898,457   4%    195,938   4.17 (4% assumed ^)

1/6 thru 3/23 assumed at a high of 4% Blu-ray top 20 market share
All units and % are top 20 titles that week for each format
BD% on chart is BD/(BD+DVD)% of top 20 units (the former pie chart %)


Matched Weeks
Code:
All units and % are top 20 titles that week for each format
BD% on chart is BD/(BD+DVD)% of top 20 units (the old pie chart % prior to 7/19/09)

Date      DVDTop20  DVD%  TotalTop20  BD%    BDTop20  BD/DVD*100    

11/15/09 10,529,835 81.39% 12,937,505 18.61% 2,407,670 22.87 Up Monsters Inc
11/16/08  8,951,543  91%    9,836,860   9%    885,317   9.89

11/08/09  7,976,987 82.32%  9,690,217 17.68% 1,713,230 21.48 G.I. Joe
11/09/08  4,813,398  92%    5,231,954   8%    418,556   8.70  

11/01/09  7,235,173 86.07%  8,406,150 13.93% 1,170,977 16.18 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
11/02/08  5,084,812  92%    5,526,970   8%    442,158   8.70

10/25/09  7,542,412 80.25%  9,398,644 19.75% 1,856,232 24.61 Transformer 2: Revenge of the Fallen
10/26/08  5,870,781  88%    6,671,342  12%    800,561  13.64

10/18/09  4,931,164 83.53%  5,903,465 16.47%  972,301  19.72 The Proposal Land of the Lost 
10/19/08  5,515,943  89%    6,197,689  11%    681,746  12.36          

10/11/09  2,896,009 70.56%  4,104,321 29.44% 1,208,312 41.72 Snow White Blu-ray DVD combo pack
10/12/09  5,022,723  90%    5,580,803  10%    558,080  11.11          

10/04/09  4,317,022 85.15%  5,069,903 14.85%  752,881  17.44 Monsters vs Aliens The Wizard of Oz
10/5/08   7,645,705  87%    8,788,167  13%  1,142,462  14.94  (Ironman) (4Q 2008)
	
9/27/09   2,577,976 84.89%  3,036,843 15.11%  458,867  17.80 Ghosts of Girl Friends Past
9/28/08   3,563,085  94%    3,790,516   6%    227,431   6.38  (3Q 2008) 

9/20/09   4,577,388 83.33%  5,493,085 16.67%  915,697  20.00 X-Men Origins: Wolverine
9/21/08   2,660,810  92%    2,892,185   8%    231,375   8.70
 	 
9/13/09   1,899,157 85.60%  2,218,641 14.40%  319,484  16.82 Crank 2: High Voltage
9/14/08   2,905,757  92%    3,158,432   8%    252,675   8.70  	 

9/06/09   2,713,384 82.61%  3,284,571 17.39%  571,187  21.05 State of Play Gladiator Braveheart
9/07/08   2,237,375  88%    2,542,472  12%    305,097  13.60	       

8/30/09   2,685,638 90.68%  2,961,665  9.32%  276,027  10.28 Hannah Montana: The Movie
8/31/08   3,700,328  94%    3,936,519   6%    236,191   6.38 	

8/23/09   3,384,817 91.20%  3,711,422  8.80%  326,605   9.65 Hannah Montana: The Movie
8/24/08   2,721,414  94%    2,895,121   6%    173,707   6.38 

8/16/09   2,895,711 86.64%  3,342,233 13.36%  446,522  15.42 I Love You, Man 17 Again
8/17/08   1,300,437  92%    1,413,518   8%    113,081   8.70

8/09/09   3,271,402 88.66%  3,689,829 11.34%  418,427  12.79 Race to Witch Mountain
8/10/08   1,904,530  93%    2,047,882   7%    143,352   7.53
 
8/02/09   3,606,723 81.49%  4,425,970 18.51%  819,247  22.71 Fast & Furious
8/03/08   2,410,745  90%    2,678,606  10%    267,861  11.11	   

7/26/09   3,469,627  80%    4,337,034  20%    867,407  25.00 Watchmen Coraline
7/27/08   1,999,902  91%    2,197,695   9%    197,793   9.89
	
7/19/09   2,013,710  87%    2,314,609  13%    300,899  14.94 The Haunting in Connecticut (pie chart changed by HMM)
7/20/08   2,661,096  92%    2,892,496   8%    231,400   8.70
	  
7/12/09   2,563,408  87%    2,946,446  13%    383,038  14.94 Knowing Push
7/13/08   2,161,864  88%    2,456,664  12%    294,800  13.64

7/05/09   1,999,249  90%    2,221,388  10%    222,139  11.11 12 Rounds
7/06/08   2,344,112  93%    2,520,551   7%    176,439   7.53 

6/28/09   2,963,546  88%    3,367,666  12%    404,120  13.64 Confessions of a Shopaholic
6/29/08   3,387,810  93%    3,642,806   7%    254,996   7.53

6/21/09   5,421,682  92%    5,893,133   8%    471,451   8.70 Friday the 13th
6/22/08   2,941,032  94%    3,128,757   6%    187,725   6.38   
 
6/14/09   5,209,020  87%    5,987,379  13%    778,359  14.94 Gran Torino
6/15/09   4,549,086  93%    4,891,490   7%    342,404   7.53 

6/07/09   3,970,841  88%    4,512,319  12%    541,478  13.64 He's Just Not Thank Into You
6/08/09   2,924,484  91%    3,213,719   9%    289,235   9.89

5/31/09   3,433,670  88%    3,901,898  12%    468,228  13.64 no major new studio releases
6/01/08   2,969,115  90%    3,299,017  10%    329,902  11.11     

5/24/09   6,558,345  86%    7,625,983  14%  1,067,638  16.28 Paul Blart: Mall Cop  Valkyrie
5/25/09   6,032,181  93%    6,486,216   7%    454,035   7.53

5/17/09   5,559,002  85%    6,540,002  15%    981,000  17.65 Taken Underworld: Rise of the Lycans
5/18/08   4,116,119  95%    4,332,757   5%    216,638   7.53  
   
5/10/09   4,429,829  90%    4,922,032  10%    492,203  11.11 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5/11/08   3,436,325  95%    3,617,184   5%    180,859   5.36   

5/03/09   4,334,922  90%    4,816,580  10%    481,658  11.11 Bride Wars Hotel for Dogs
5/04/09   3,951,319  95%    4,159,283   5%    207,964   5.26   

4/26/09   3,884,888  86%    4,517,312  14%    632,424  16.28 Notorius The Wrestler 
4/27/09   3,704,727  94%    3,941,199   6%    236,472   6.38 
 
4/19/09   3,314,166  88%    3,766,098  12%    451,932  13.64 The Spirit
4/20/09   4,599,084  94%    4,892,643   6%    293,559   6.38
 
4/12/09   8,277,770  93%    8,900,828   7%    623,058   7.53 Bedtime Stories (Easter Sales)
4/13/08   4,094,727  95%    4,310,239   5%    215,512   5.26

4/05/09   5,721,690  90%    6,357,433  10%    635,743  11.11 Marley & Me SlumDog
4/06/08   6,977,800  96%    7,268,542   4%    290,742   4.17

3/29/09   6,529,305  87%    7,504,948  13%    975,643  14.94 Quantum of Solace
3/30/08   3,343,830  92%    3,634,598   8%    290,768   8.70

3/22/09   7,520,004  91%    8,263,741   9%    743,737   9.89 Twilight (BD probably high)
3/23/08  11,933,888  94%   12,695,626   6%    761,738   6.38 I Am Legend

3/15/09   5,435,960  88%    6,177,227  12%    741,267  13.64 Pinocchio 
3/16/08   6,523,737  96%    6,795,559   4%    271,822   4.17 

3/08/09   3,849,449  90%    4,277,166  10%    427,717  11.11 Beverly Hills Chihuahua
3/09/08   3,943,451  96%    4,107,761   4%    164,310   4.17

3/01/09   3,335,531  92%    3,625,577   8%    290,046   8.70 Sex Drive Body of Lies
3/02/08   5,272,493  96%    5,492,180   4%    219,687   4.17

2/22/09   4,125,505  90%    4,583,894  10%    458,389  11.11 High School Musical 3: Senior Year
2/24/08   5,009,987  96%    5,218,736   4%    208,749   4.17

2/15/09   4,770,305  92%    5,185,114   8%    414,809   8.70 Nights in Rodanthe
2/17/08   4,716,726  96%    4,913,256   4%    196,530   4.17

2/08/09   5,616,864  93%    6,039,639   7%    422,775   7.53 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
2/10/08   3,528,678  96%    3,675,706   4%    147,028   4.17

2/01/09   3,735,997  86%    4,344,183  14%    608,186  16.28 Open Season 2
2/03/08   2,022,469  96%    2,106,739   4%     84,270   4.17

1/25/09   2,930,532  83%    3,530,761  17%    600,229  20.48 Max Payne
1/27/08   3,307,632  96%    3,445,450   4%    137,818   4.17

1/18/09   3,275,945  88%    3,722,665  12%    446,720  13.64 Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys
1/20/08   2,997,845  96%    3,122,755   4%    124,910   4.17

1/11/09   4,154,503  87%    4,775,291  13%    620,788  14.94 Pineapple Express
1/13/08   3,484,803  96%    3,630,003   4%    145,200   4.17

1/04/09   4,733,578  84%    5,635,212  16%    901,634  19.05  Eagle Eye
1/06/08   4,702,519  96%    4,898,457   4%    195,938   4.17

1/6/08 thru 3/23/08 assumed at a high of 4% Blu-ray top 20 market share
Year to Date and End of Year 2008 to 2009 Summary Comparisons

Code:
Date                   DVDTop20     DVD%    TotalTop20     BD%  BDTop20  BD/DVD*100      

TOTAL FOR PERIOD
2009
4QTD 10/04/09-11/15/09  45,428,602  81.32%   55,510,204  18.68%  10,081,602  23.43
 YTD 01/04/09-11/15/09 206,179,641  86.75%  238,268,021  13.25%  32,088,380  15.56
2008
4QTD 10/05/08-11/16/08  42,904,905  89.86%   47,833,785  10.14%   4,928,880  11.33
EO4Q 10/05/08-12/28/08 122,899,904  89.15%  138,415,077  10.85%  15,515,173  12.21
 YTD 01/06/08-11/16/08 189,948,227  93.09%  204,177,121   6.91%  14,228,894   7.51
 EOY 01/06/08-12/28/08 269,943,226  92.54%  294,758,414   7.46%  24,815,188   8.17

WEEKLY AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
Average 4QTD 2009        6,489,800  81.32%    7,930,029  18.68%  1,440,229   23.43
Average  YTD 2009        4,482,166  86.75%    5,179,740  13.25%    697,573   15.56
2008
Average 4QTD 2008        5,876,533  89.86%    6,507,603  10.14%    631,070   11.33
Average EO4Q 2008        9,453,839  89.15%   10,647,314  10.85%  1,193,475   12.21   
Average  YTD 2008        4,129,309  93.09%    4,438,633   6.91%    309,324    7.51
Average  EOY 2008        5,191,216  92.54%    5,668,431   7.46%    477,215    8.17   
       
EO4Q 2008 AVERAGES (12 weeks, average per week)  10/05/08 thru  12/28/08
EOY  2008 AVERAGES (52 weeks, average per week)  01/06/08 thru  12/28/08
Top 20 DVD is from the-numbers.com, Blu-ray total is calculated by HMM pie chart share. These are best understood of the translation of the scale of the The-Numbers.com estimate of the total units sales of the bestselling 20 DVD title sold into Blu-ray and total units by assuming that the Nielsen Videoscan first alert pie chart top 20 DVD versus top 20 Blu-ray can be applied to that number to estimate Blu-ray sales. Even if magnitude is off scale trends are probably accurate.

Note that the 1Q 2008 numbers are probably even a bit high as 4% Blu-ray market share (the HMM 1/06 thru 4/20/08) is assumed for those weeks. It is also noted that The-numbers.com attempts to include Wal-Mart in its top 20 DVD figures while the HMM reported Nielsen Videoscan percentages do not.

In the particular case of the week of 3/22/09 where Wal-Mart did not sell the Blu-ray version of the weeks best selling DVD Twilight the numbers for Blu-ray are probably high by 40-50K. 3/29/09 is probably high by my estimate by half that amount or 20-25K.

2007 data is actual Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray sales data (not just top 20, but entire Blu-ray units sold, leaked from a SPHE report)

NOTE:

As of 7/19/2009 the pie chart published by HMM was changed to be a revenue market share graph instead of a top best selling 20 DVD title versus top 20 best selling Blu-ray title unit sales comparison.

The top 20 unit Blu-ray marketshare for 7/19/09 was 13% and the top 20 unit marketshare for 7/26/09 was 20% instead of what was published on the HMM website homepage, digital online and print edition (8% and 16% were the revenue marketshares for Blu-ray during those weeks).

8/02/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 18.51%
8/09/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 11.34%
8/16/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 13.36%
8/23/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 8.80%
8/30/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 9.32%
9/06/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 17.39%
9/13/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 14.40%
9/20/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 16.67%
9/27/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 15.11%
10/04/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 14.85%
10/11/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 29.44%
10/18/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 16.47%
10/25/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 19.75%
11/01/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 13.93%
11/08/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 17.68%
11/15/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit percentage was provided by HMM and was 18.61%














Unit sales update for week ending 11/15/09 units is now complete.

Last edited by Kosty; 11-24-2009 at 04:50 PM.
  #8  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:50 PM
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Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 28,296
Exclamation Attention new viewers of this thread

The post below is the start of some historical links for older sales data and articles from other sites and industry trade journal articles on historical Blu-ray sales. FYI

For this weeks discussion, log on the forum for "go to last unread post" icons, or go to near the end of the thread for the current active discussion.

This is a sticky ongoing thread where the discussion goes on and on.

I've tried to make it easier by keeping some of the initial posts above current with updated data and sometimes a link to the current weekly discussion.


Go to the new stuff and jump into the discussion.

Thanks

Kosty

HMM historical issues

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/digital-edition

On any digital version , you can hit the archieve button to get a drop down list of older issues .

Last edited by Kosty; 11-24-2009 at 04:31 PM.
  #9  
Old 01-19-2009, 04:51 PM
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Exclamation Notice To New Readers Of This Thread !!!

The post below is the start of some historical links for older sales data and articles from other sites and industry trade journal articles on historical Blu-ray sales. FYI

For this weeks discussion, log on the forum for "go to last unread post" icons, or go to near the end of the thread for the current active discussion.

This is a sticky ongoing thread where the discussion goes on and on.

I've tried to make it easier by keeping some of the initial posts above current with updated data and sometimes a link to the current weekly discussion.


Go to the new stuff and jump into the discussion.

Thanks

Kosty

HMM historical issues

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/digital-edition

On any digital version , you can hit the archieve button to get a drop down list of older issues .

BACK UP FOR OLD VERSION OF REVENUE CHART last used with 4/26/09 dataset

HMM reported Blu-ray weekly sales data updated thru 04/26/09

Please use scroll bar to see complete data set

The data here is format totals, the last column is the top 20 title for each format comparison %.

Newest week is on top of the chart.

WEEKLY REVENUE CALCULATIONS

Code:
Data from HMM (Newest week on top)

Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
     revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   Releases


04/26 165.58  19.42   185.00  10.50 %     11.73     14 % (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/19 100.59  10.79   111.38   9.69 %     10.73     12 % (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/12 219.58  19.56   239.14   8.18 %      8.91      7 % (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/05 182.40  17.24   199.64   8.64 %      9.45     10 % (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)  (2Q 2009)   
                                                          2Q 2009
03/29 196.10  24.03   220.13  10.92 %     12.25     13 % (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/22 175.67  18.79   194.46   9.66 %     10.70      9 % (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/15 154.31  16.75   171.06   9.79 %     10.85     12 % (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/08 124.23  10.61   134.84   7.87 %      8.54     10 % (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/01 138.21  11.85   150.06   7.90 %      8.57      8 % (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
02/22 141.64  13.28   154.92   8.57 %      9.38     10 % (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/15 153.35  10.78   164.13   6.57 %      7.03      8 % (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/08 142.11  11.00   153.11   7.18 %      7.74      7 % (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/01 115.36  10.27   125.63   8.17 %      8.90     14 % (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
01/25 108.96  15.66   124.62  12.57 %     16.89     17 % 
01/18  98.37  10.56   108.93   9.69 %     10.73     12 %
01/11 110.78  18.71   129.49  14.45 %     16.89     13 % 
01/04 132.83  24.33   157.16  15.48 %     18.31     16 % HMM using new model to increase its estimate of Wal-Mart Blu-ray sales.
                                                          1Q 2009
12/28 302.48  40.07   342.55  11.70 %     13.25     13 % 
12/21 349.84  46.51   396.35  11.73 %     13.29     11 %  Mama Mia 
12/14 461.51  60.78   522.29  11.64 %     13.17     14 %  The Dark Knight
12/07 240.59  23.64   264.23   8.95 %     09.83     11 %  Wanted,Naria: Prince
11/30 386.35  27.68   414.03   6.69 %     07.16     10 %  Hancock     
11/23 178.46  18.60   197.06   9.44 %     10.42     11 %  Wall-E 
11/16 174.17  20.17   194.34  10.38 %     11.58      9 %  Hellboy II Kung Fu Panda 
11/09 118.55  10.99   129.54   8.48 %     09.27      8 %  Get Smart
11/02 118.26  12.22   130.48   9.37 %     10.33      8 %  Tinker Bell 
10/26 123.16  17.71   140.87  12.57 %     14.38     12 %  The Incredible Hulk 
10/19 129.41  17.94   147.35  12.18 %     13.86     11 %  Indiana Jones KOCS 
10/12 126.10  14.37   140.47  10.23 %     11.40     10 %  Sleeping Beauty 
10/05 144.38  26.84   171.22  15.68 %     18.59     13 % (4Q 2008) Ironman

9/28  118.94  10.92   129.86   8.41 %     09.18      6 % Sex in the City (3Q)
9/21  111.29   8.87   120.16   7.38 %     07.97      8 %
9/14  111.28   9.18   120.46   7.62 %     08.25      8 %
9/07  111.11  10.60   121.71   8.71 %     09.54     12 %  Transformers
8/31  124.23   9.11   133.34   6.83 %     07.33      6 %
8/24  120.41   7.07   127.48   5.55 %     05.87      6 %
8/17  111.17   6.19   117.36   5.27 %     05.57      8 %
8/10  125.81   6.89   132.70   5.19 %     05.48      7 %
8/03  124.93   9.42   134.35   7.01 %     07.54     10 %
7/27  115.75   8.00   123.75   6.46 %     06.91      9 %
7/20  112.23   7.61   119.84   6.35 %     06.78      8 %
7/13  115.29   8.42   123.71   6.81 %     07.30     12 %
7/06  121.63   7.86   129.49   6.07 %     06.46      7 % (3Q 2008)

6/29  129.76   8.88   138.64   6.41 %     06.84      7 % (2Q 2008) 
6/22  123.46   8.48   131.94   6.43 %     06.87      6 %
6/15  160.20  12.73   172.93   7.36 %     07.95      7 % Bucket List Jumper
6/08  123.74  10.02   133.76   7.49 %     08.10      9 % Rambo
6/01  129.37  10.05   139.42   7.21 %     07.32     10 % National Treasure
5/25  148.88  12.38   161.26   7.68 %     08.32      7 % National Treasure BOS
5/18  126.46   7.99   134.45   5.94 %     06.32      5 %
5/11  124.60   6.56   131.16   5.00 %     05.26      5 %
5/04  101.25   7.08   111.33   6.54 %     06.99      5 %  Note: HMM begins reporting resided 2008 numbers for below matching weeks)
4/27  211.60  13.51   115.96   7.93 %     08.62      6 %  (Calc from 2009 data)  (was previously 9.20 for Blu-ray)  
4/20  146.57   9.36   155.93   6.00 %     06.38      6 %  (Calc from 2009 data)  was previously 9.92 for Blu-ray) 
4/13  172.04   7.17   179.21   4.00 %     04.17      5 %  (Calc from 2009 data)  
4/06  179.30   7.47   186.77   4.00 %     04.17      4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)    (2Q 2008) 

3/30  104.44   9.08   113.52   8.00 %     08.69	     8 %  (Calc from 2009 data)   (1Q 2008) 
3/23  179.58  17.74   197.33   8.99 %     09.88      6 %  (Calc from 2009 data)  
3/16  173.13  11.05   184.18   6.00 %     06.38    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)  
3/09  150.65   6.28   156.93   4.00 %     04.17    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)  
3/02  153.84   8.10   161.94   5.00 %     05.26    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/24  160.84  10.27   171.11   6.00 %     06.38    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data) 
2/17  153.73   8.09   161.82   5.00 %     05.20    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/10  163.95   6.83   170.78   4.00 %     04.17    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
2/03  152.39   6.10   158.49   3.85 %     04.00    > 4 %  (Calc from 2009 data)
1/27  116.60   7.61   124.21   6.13 %     06.53    > 4 %  (Calc from NV unit data)
1/20  105.68   8.36   114.04   7.33 %     07.91    > 4 %  (Calc from NV unit data)
1/13  122.85   9.57   132.41   7.22 %     07.79    > 4 %  (Calc from NV unit data) adjusted to 9.57 Blu-ray revenue on 3/16/09
1/06  165.77   8.13   173.90   4.67 %     04.90    > 4 %  (Calc from NV unit data)  adjusted to 8.13 Blu-ray revenue on 3/16/09


1/6/08 and 1/13/08 Blu-ray revenues adjusted to 8.13 and 9.57 based on data on 1Q 2008 Blu-ray revenues from a April 15 2009 HMM article

Above January 2008 data calculated from HMM units x average of 35.74394055 factor (based on known data) for Blu-ray from conversion of published unit sales charts of Nielsen Videoscan first alert units.  DVD revenues estimated from conversion of The-Numbers top 20 DVD units to revenues based on average of 35.25 factor.  Best estimate available.  Process is comparing two matching sets of data with only some incomplete gaps so the variables can be estimated to fill in the data.

1/06 thru       (1/01 thru 4/20 totals) Reported , probably does not include Jan 08 and only includes numbers published in HMM thru that date
4/20 totals
    2,573.43  76.61 2,650.04   2.89 %     02.98      ? %

1/06 thru
4/20 average per week (16 weeks, average per week  1/06 thru 4/20)
      160.83   4.79   165.62   2.89 %     02.98      ? %
CURRENT 2009 YEAR TO DATE REVENUE CALCULATIONS

Code:
Calculated Year To Date 1/4/09 thru 4/26/09)

Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
     revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue     top 20 units

YTD  2,460.07  263.63  2,723.70   9.68 %    10.72      11.29 % (avg of top 20%'s)
FINAL FOR 2008 YEAR TO DATE REVENUE CALCULATIONS

Code:
 

Calculated Year To Date 1/6/08 thru 12/28/08)

Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
     revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

2008 8,225.24  627.56  8,852.80    7.09 %    7.63       8.00 % (avg of top 20%'s)
from HMM thru 11/16/08 report plus final reported weeks added on

NOTES:

1/06/08 to 1/27/08 data back calculated form HMM charted unit figures from Hollywood in High Def issue. Now adjusted downward by $13.8 M (see below) 1/03/08, 2/10/08, 2/17/08, 2/24/08, 3/02/08, 3/09/08 3/16/08 3/22/08 3/29/08 4/06/08 4/13/08 data back calculated and added from YTY change figures on weekly HMM pie chart updates.

2008 YTD totals added for reference

Note: This HMM article gave 1Q 2009 numbers,

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/stu...y-stride-15234



These charts include the week ending 1/4/09 data in this years figures while the $189 M figure is not counting the 12/28/08 through 12/31/09 data that is including in the week ending 1/4/09's data. So its reasonable to attribute $9 M of Blu-ray sales on my charts in 2009 to the last three days of 2008.

DVD sales are also overcounted as well by $130 M or so in the same manner..

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...arply-q1-15382


$196.62 M is what my charts had shown from 1/4/09 to 3/29/09 and $130.00 M is what I previously had for 1Q 2008 so my estimation of January 2007 Blu-ray sales was a total of $12.8M high for those first 4 weeks that we did not have reported published data (1/06/08 - 1/27/08) . I had 14.53 and 15.97 for the first 2 weeks, so that probably accurate to reduce those weeks to $6.4 M each to be now 1/6/08 being $8.13 M and 1/13/08 being $.9.57 M respectively. 1/20/08 will remain at $8.36 M and 1/27/08 will remain at $7.61M. Those were the only 4 weeks in 2008 that I did not have hard Blu-ray revenue data for, so that gives me a more refined estimate...


Note: HMM since 2/03/08 week with matching 3/01/09 week has been providing updated 2008 revised data for 2008 data. On week ending data 4/26/09 the new published data crossed over to be in conflict with the 4/27/08 data that was published in 2008 HMM. It was identified that HMM has revised its 2009 Blu-ray estimates to better account for Wal-Mart system sales. All Blu-ray info from 2/01/08 through now 4/27/08 has the revised data in the chart.

Blu-ray sales data from 5/04/08 through 9/28/08 on this chart may be 5-20% underestimated and may also be also be underestimated in the 10/05/08 through 12/28/09 period. HMM may provide the revised data soon or it will be updated on a rolling week to week basis.


2008 to 2009 Year to Year Revenue Comparison Summary Updated thru 4/26/09

NOTE: 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power (TBO) strengths of each week added where available,
its below the year to year data for each week on the matched week data set lines

Blu-ray 2009 Revenue and Market Share Percentages Highlighted in Red

2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Arranged by Year)

Code:
Date      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
       revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change

   2009
4/26/09 165.58  19.42   185.00  10.50 %     11.73     14 % (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
4/19/09 100.59  10.79   111.38   9.69 %     10.73     12 % (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
4/12/09 219.58  19.56   239.14   8.18 %      8.91      7 % (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
4/05/09 182.40  17.24   199.64   8.64 %      9.45     10 % (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)  +3.3% top 20 unit volume
3/29/09 196.10  24.03   220.13  10.92 %     12.25     13 % (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
3/22/09 175.67  18.79   194.46   9.66 %     10.70      9 % (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL  -1.37% YTY)
3/15/09 154.31  16.75   171.06   9.79 %     10.85     12 % (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL  -7.13% YTY)
3/08/09 124.23  10.61   134.84   7.87 %      8.54     10 % (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
3/01/09 138.21  11.85   150.06   7.90 %      8.57      8 % (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)
2/22/09 141.64  13.28   154.92   8.57 %      9.38     10 % (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
2/15/09 153.35  10.78   164.13   6.57 %      7.03      8 % (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
2/08/09 142.11  11.00   153.11   7.18 %      7.74      7 % (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
2/01/09 115.36  10.27   125.63   8.17 %      8.90     14 % (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
1/25/09 108.96  15.66   124.62  12.57 %     16.89     17 % 
1/18/09  98.37  10.56   108.93   9.69 %     10.73     12 %
1/11/09 110.78  18.71   129.49  14.45 %     16.89     13 % 
1/04/09 132.83  24.33   157.16  15.48 %     18.31     16 % 

   2008
4/27/08 211.60  13.51   115.96   7.93 %      8.62      6 %  
4/20/08 146.57   9.36   155.93   6.00 %      6.38      6 % 
4/13/08 172.04   7.17   179.21   4.00 %      4.17      5 %
4/06/08 179.30   7.47   186.77   4.00 %      4.17      4 % 
3/30/08 104.44   9.08   113.52   8.00 %      8.69      8 %  
3/23/08 179.58  17.74   197.33   8.99 %      9.88      6 %
3/16/08 173.13  11.05   184.18   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 %  
3/09/08 150.65   6.28   156.93   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 %  
3/02/08 153.84   8.10   161.94   5.00 %      5.26    > 4 %  
2/24/08 160.84  10.27   171.11   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 %   
2/17/08 153.73   8.09   161.82   5.00 %      5.20    > 4 %  
2/10/08 163.95   6.83   170.78   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 %  
2/03/08 152.39   6.10   158.49   3.85 %      4.00    > 4 %  
1/27/08 116.60   7.61   124.21   6.13 %      6.53    > 4 % (back calculated, Blu-ray estimation probably is a little high)  
1/20/08 105.68   8.36   114.04   7.33 %      7.91    > 4 % (back calculated, Blu-ray estimation probably is a little high)  
1/13/08 122.85   9.57   132.41   7.22 %      7.79    > 4 % (adjusted estimate on 3/16/09)  
1/06/08 165.77   8.13   173.90   4.67 %      4.90    > 4 % (adjusted estimate on 3/16/09)
2008 to 2009 YEAR TO YEAR WEEKLY REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS (Matched Weeks)

Code:
Upcoming weeks 2009 Total Box Office Power (TBO) and percentage change from the TBO of the matching week in 2008 
5/03/09  TBO  $159.66 M   +00.15% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)
5/10/09  TBO  $142.40 M   +28.03% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)
 
Date      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
       revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change

4/26/09 165.58  19.42   185.00  10.50 %     11.73     14 % (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
4/27/08 211.60  13.51   115.96   7.93 %      8.62      6 % TBO $81.61  -56.44% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

4/19/09 100.59  10.79   111.38   9.69 %     10.73     12 % (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
4/20/08 146.57   9.36   155.93   6.00 %      6.38      6 % TBO $53.66  -73.39% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

4/12/09 219.58  19.56   239.14   8.18 %      8.91      7 % (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
4/13/08 172.04   7.17   179.21   4.00 %      4.17      5 % TBO $271.84 +124.49% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

4/05/09 182.40  17.24   199.64   8.64 %      9.45     10 % (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY) 
4/06/08 179.30   7.47   186.77   4.00 %      4.17      4 % TBO $357.74 +32.79% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)
 
3/29/09 196.10  24.03   220.13  10.92 %     12.25     13 % (BD 164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
3/30/08 104.44   9.08   113.52   8.00 %      8.69      8 % TBO 168.37 +306.91%  (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 
  
3/22/09 175.67  18.79   194.46   9.66 %     10.70      9 % (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL  -1.37% YTY)
3/23/08 179.58  17.74   197.33   8.99 %      9.88      6 % TBO 316.44 - 29.41% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

3/15/09 154.31  16.75   171.06   9.79 %     10.85     12 % (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL  -7.13% YTY)
3/16/08 173.13  11.05   184.18   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 % TBO 174.71   49.35% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

3/08/09 124.23  10.61   134.84   7.87 %      8.54     10 % (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
3/09/08 150.65   6.28   156.93   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 % TBO 146.86 1118.69% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

3/01/09 138.21  11.85   150.06   7.90 %      8.57      8 % (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)
3/02/08 153.84   8.10   161.94   5.00 %      5.26    > 4 % TBO  23.05  -83.72% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

2/22/09 141.64  13.28   154.92   8.57 %      9.38     10 % (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
2/24/08 160.84  10.27   171.11   6.00 %      6.38    > 4 % TBO 220.54  +14.84% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

2/15/09 153.35  10.78   164.13   6.57 %      7.03      8 % (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
2/17/08 153.73   8.09   161.82   5.00 %      5.20    > 4 % TBO  90.74  -47.72% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

2/08/09 142.11  11.00   153.11   7.18 %      7.74      7 % (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
2/10/08 163.95   6.83   170.78   4.00 %      4.17    > 4 % TBO 298.34  +230.18% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

2/01/09 115.36  10.27   125.63   8.17 %      8.90     14 % (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
2/03/08 152.39   6.10   158.49   3.85 %      4.00    > 4 % TBO 1,994.81 +14.19% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

1/25/09 108.96  15.66   124.62  12.57 %     16.89     17 % 
1/27/08 116.60   7.61   124.21   6.13 %      6.53    > 4 %                         

1/18/09  98.37  10.56   108.93   9.69 %     10.73     12 %
1/20/08 105.68   8.36   114.04   7.33 %      7.91    > 4 %                                

1/11/09 110.78  18.71   129.49  14.45 %     16.89     13 % 
1/13/08 122.85   9.57   132.41   7.22 %      7.79    > 4 %                            

1/04/09 132.83  24.33   157.16  15.48 %     18.31     16 % 
1/06/08 165.77   8.13   173.90   4.67 %      4.90    > 4 %
2008 1Q to 2009 1Q YEAR TO DATE FIRST QUARTER + 1 WEEK REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS

Code:
Date Range      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
             revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1/4- 4/26/09 2,460.07  263.63   2,723.70   9.68 %    10.72     11.29 % (avg of top 20%'s)
1/6 -4/27/08 2,612.99  154.71   2,658.55   5.82 %     5.92      4.65 %

WEEKLY AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1/4- 4/26/09   143.41  15.26    158.67   9.62 %  10.64   11.13 %
1/6 -4/27/08   153.71   9.10    156.39   5.82 %   5.92    4.65 %

1Q  2009 AVERAGES (17 weeks, average per week)  1/04/09 thru 4/26/09)
1Q  2008 AVERAGES (17 weeks, average per week)  1/06/08 thru 4/27/08)
[/b]
2008 FINAL to 2009 YEAR TO DATE ANNUAL REVENUE COMPARISON CALCULATIONS

Code:
Date Range      DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
             revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

1/4- 4/26/09  2,460.07 263.63  2,723.70   9.68 %  10.72     11.29 % (avg of top 20%'s)
1/6-12/29/08  8,225.24 627.56  8,852.80   7.09 %   7.63      8.00 % (avg of top 20%'s)

2009 Calculated Year To Date   1/4/09 thru  4/26/09)
2008 Calculated Final for Year 1/6/08 thru 12/28/08) from HMM thru 11/16/08 report plus final reported weeks added on[/B]



Last edited by Kosty; 11-20-2009 at 04:30 AM.
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Old 01-19-2009, 04:51 PM
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Blu-Ray: Finally, Some Retail Respect
February 26, 2009 | about stocks: NFLX

Seth Gilbert
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A year removed from vanquishing HD DVD, Blu-ray DVDs are finally getting some retail respect. At least, according to a forecast from market research firm FutureSource Consulting. The U.K.-based firm released a prediction (PDF) this week saying consumers will buy more than 100m high definition Blu-ray discs across the U.S., Western Europe and Japan in 2009. The company expects 80 million units to sell in the U.S. alone.

A large part of the growth is attributed to decreasing prices for both Blu-ray hardware and the discs themselves. Another lesser reason, FutureSource explains, was preparatory overproduction in 2008. To “fill the channel” and “enable retailers to build their in-store displays,” the industry produced more than 200m discs in 2008 despite only selling 36m. Retailers are now ready for a more aggressive sales push.

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Blu-ray “has moved from early adopter phase through to early majority” in the U.S., said Mai Hoang, a senior analyst at FutureSource. The company predicts that by 2012, 50% of U.S. DVD sales will be Blu-ray.

Some critics are skeptical of these near-term numbers. They think the economy – both by pinching consumer spending and by restraining the funds available for big budget movie production – will slow Blu-ray’s adoption.

There are others who question the longer-term cycle and speculate that, as a consequence of evolving digital delivery technologies, Blu-ray’s fall could be as rapid as its ascent.

All things considered, it’s a tea-leaf reading game. However, logic and insider knowledge, at least with regard to Blu-ray’s longevity, if not FutureSource’s 2009 numbers, is on the side of FutureSource. The biggest reason is simple: economics. DVDs remain one of movie studios’ largest revenue generators. Until streaming and VOD services can offer a comparable windfall, content owners are apt to temper the pace of new technologies’ arrival by wielding the weapons imbued in the power of their licensing contracts. Simply put, they’ll limit alternative access to their programming and milk the profits out of Blu-ray until a better money maker is proven out.

Helping out from the other side of the equation is the nature of consumer viewing habits. There, it’s ease and ubiquity that drive major parts of purchase decision making. Until the time comes when digital, delivery technologies are more accessible and convenient, mainstream consumers are more likely to favor striking a balance between packaged goods purchases and digital experimentations.

As Netflix (NFLX) Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos put it in a Wednesday presentation at the Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet conference,

With DVDs, because it looks like a CD, there’s a natural inclination to attribute the properties of the music business to the movie business. In fact, the consumer interaction with [a DVD] is quite different.

For a DVD, or any packaged media, to be displaced by digital, something better has to come alone. With music, Sarandos says, that clearly happened but it’s not so with DVDs, yet:

An MP3 purchase from iTunes is portable enough to listen to where you listen to music. But today a file or a stream is not as portable as a DVD is. When our subscribers rent a disc, the disc we send them through the mail they can watch everywhere they watch movies. In the car. At the weekend house. In the bedroom. Anywhere they go. And when you transact electronically, you’re still rather limited to where you can consume it.

DVDs are still the most convenient format for personal viewing of videos. Until that changes, they’re not in danger of extinction.

Market data put out by NPD earlier this year, seems to echo that sentiment too. In its Entertainment Trends in America report, the research firm asked people how they watched movies over the past three months. Sixty-seven percent responded that they watched a DVD they owned themselves, while fifty percent said they watched a rental disc. Only 2% paid for a digital video download.

The same study also found that 41% of consumer movie budgets were spent on DVD purchases and 29% on rentals. Eighteen percent was spent at the box office on movie tickets, but only .5% was spent on digital formats over the Internet. NDP found that $8 out of every $10 dollars spent on movies went to DVDs.

While the NPD survey only looked at data in the short term, it was clear digital delivery isn’t close threatening DVD sales today.

So, Blu-ray, 100m discs in 2009? Maybe, or maybe not? That depends on the crystal ball you look at. But, still relevant in 2013, even 2015? Now that's, most likely.

Anecdotally, Netflix’ Sarandos added further support to Blu-ray growth projections with remarks that his company will likely see more than 1 million Blu-ray subscribers by year end – a sign that consumer take up on Blu-ray hardware is accelerating.

Netflix is also forecasting its DVD shipments will continue grow over the next five to ten years (Sarandos didn’t specify DVD format). Amazon’s (AMZN) success with CD sales was cited an example. Amazon, Sarandos said, shipped more CD’s in 2008 than it did in 2007 despite the general decline of the CD.

He explained:

The internet is growing faster than the music business is cratering. Tthe ease and comfort of transacting business online will continue to grow for mainstream consumers and it will grow faster than packaged media will decline.

So, from the perspective of Netflix a business built around DVDs and with its hands well into digital delivery was well – the runway for Blu-ray would appear to be long.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1228...retail-respect


Last edited by Kosty; 04-01-2009 at 02:51 AM.
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