Dark Knight Blu-ray vs. DVD sales??? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 07-20-2008, 07:05 AM
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Default Dark Knight Blu-ray vs. DVD sales???

I saw the movie this weekend and I am officially blown away. I don't think I have ever liked a movie this much. It was just incredible. I never thought an action movie could be as high quality as some of favorite movies in the likes of American Beauty, Pulp Fiction, or No Country For Old Men. If Warner and the BDA are smart they will promote this release to hell and back. I know it's going to be a little while before a blu-ray release outsells it's DVD counterpart but I got a feeling this is the movie to really make a dent in that trend. What do you guys think?
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Old 07-20-2008, 07:56 AM
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It's going to be a few more years before people have more HDTVs than SDTVs... not to mention a Blu-ray player in every home. TDK will no doubt be a top seller in 2008.
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Old 07-20-2008, 08:51 AM
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Major titles may not change through the end of the year, lets take
Iron Man and say its equal to Transformers last year so it will sell 13.25 million copies by years end, Blu-ray wont add to it it will take it away and with a 340% increase at most the BD version will sell 1.65 million by the end of the year.


The Dark Knight will most likely be released in December (first week most likely). Trying to estimate how much this will sell is more difficult. Parents will not be buying this for their younger kids like: POTC: AWE, TF, Happy Feet, Ratatouille, Shrek 3, and HP 5 and those were the only ones to make 10 million except for 300 last year, 300 had 4 months to make it with TDK will have about 1. Let assume it will be 11 million total it could sell 1.65 million like Iron Man could even with less time, but it could also sell more as since this isn't much of a kids movie the Blu-ray consumer may be overwhelmingly in this demographic and is highly possible it could sell close to 3 million on Blu-ray.

I think Iron Man and The Dark Knight will both cross 1 million before the year is over but they should be between 1-1.25 million I would actually be surprised if either sold more than 1.5 million before the year was out, Indiana Jones 4 could also reach 1 million with Hulk, Wanted, and Hancock being the only other new titles to reach 500k before years end (300) and possibly Star Wars: The Clone Wars (I don't think it will right now, it depends on box office success and when released and the amount of Star Wars fans as BD owners) and I am Legend (I am not confident it will make it).

I guess I think 3 movies will pass 1 million and 4 others to pass 500k by years end. I think these will be the top 7 and only ones over 500k SI by the end of the year.

1. The Dark Knight
2. Iron Man
3. Indiana Jones

4. Hancock
5. Hulk
6. Wanted
7. 300
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Old 07-20-2008, 11:53 AM
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It's difficult to estimate Blu-ray sales this Christmas by comparison to last year's sales. Last year, the format war was raging on and 2 studios were not releasing on Blu-ray. This Christmas is going to be so different. With every studio aboard, Blu-ray will be setting records throughout the year. Iron Man will set the next record the week it comes out - I can see capturing about 15% of week one sales. Indy 4 should set another record when it comes out (Oct. is my guess).

The Dark Knight will set a record when it gets released. Yes, it's not a movie for the whole family, it's not for those under 13. But parents will get their kids Wall-E to watch and pick up the Dark Knight for themselves. I don't know any kids that own a Blu-ray player or have a PS3 all to themselves.

The great thing for Blu-ray is that The Dark Knight could be one of those system sellers - a killer app - that will drive sales of PS3 and other Blu-ray players. It could be the title which fully propels Blu into the mainstream.
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Old 07-20-2008, 12:07 PM
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The Dark Knight is made for hidef. It should be the top seller (based on one week's worth of sales) this year I suspect, and as Knighhawk mentioned, I think that this title along with the other 10 or so blockbuster movies being released in Q3-Q4, will move some hardware this holiday season. I think Dark Knight could be the first title to move 500K+ copies on Blu-Ray the first week.
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Old 07-20-2008, 12:11 PM
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Ack, maybe we should bring back the Nostradamus game for Q4, what do ya think?
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Old 07-20-2008, 12:35 PM
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Using Hitman sales for judgement, I'd say BD sales will be 15% of all TDK home media sales.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
The Dark Knight is made for hidef. It should be the top seller (based on one week's worth of sales) this year I suspect, and as Knighhawk mentioned, I think that this title along with the other 10 or so blockbuster movies being released in Q3-Q4, will move some hardware this holiday season. I think Dark Knight could be the first title to move 500K+ copies on Blu-Ray the first week.
Wow, that just seems awfully high to me but you could be right. The current king of '08 is I Am Legend with 300k+ from March till now, so 500K in the first week would just be rediculous

#1700 baby
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Old 07-20-2008, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nighthawk View Post
Ack, maybe we should bring back the Nostradamus game for Q4, what do ya think?
Hey... now that's not a bad idea. I second.
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Old 07-20-2008, 01:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nighthawk View Post
Ack, maybe we should bring back the Nostradamus game for Q4, what do ya think?
And I third......I think its a great idea

Percentage of top 20 DVD titles is getting high enough that it could be used or you could go off number of titles sold if that information is easy to find.
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Old 07-20-2008, 01:25 PM
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it will most likely be about double than what tranformers did on hd dvd
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