Is this sound reasoning? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 02-08-2008, 03:57 PM
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Default Is this sound reasoning?

I posted this in a thread that was otherwise a pile of BS. But, I thought I would pull this out and start another thread for discussion.

To figure out the percent of BR buyers who use the PS3 as their BR player.

Inputs and assumptions:
  • As per Toshiba's CES conference, HD DVD Stand Alone players = Blu Ray standalone players in 2007
  • As per Nielsen video scan in the year 2007 the split for movie sales was 64:36 B:R
  • Last report of total volume of HD DVD players from toshiba indicated 750K SA players and 250K add ons. A 3:1 split
  • Assume that attach rate of SA players is the same regardless of format.

Conclusions:
If you apportion software sales by the player 3:1 player split you have
  • 64% Blu ray total
  • 27% HD DVD to SA owners
  • 9% HD DVD to 360 AO owners
If you then said b/c the BR SA = HD DVD SA, 27% of sales went to BR SA owners in 2007, HDM sales were split as follows:
  • 27% BR to SA owners
  • 37% BR to PS3 owners
  • 27% HD DVD to SA owners
  • 9% HD DVD to 360 AO owners

This indicates that the PS3 has about 58% of the Blu ray movie market. However there have been about 4x as many PS3's vs. BR SA players sold, so it is clear ot see that the attach rate is much lower for PS3s than it is for SA's.
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Old 02-08-2008, 04:02 PM
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its really hard to tell.

For instance, it can be argued that bluray had a better releases for the year...hence it could be that bluray was selling more simply because the bluray standalone owners were buying more then the HDDVD standalone owners. Hard to say the attach rates for BDSA = HDSA = HDaddon

that said, within a large margin of error your comments seem fine
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