Does 1 million hd dvd players mean 1 million customers? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 01-12-2008, 03:19 PM
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Default Does 1 million hd dvd players mean 1 million customers?

This just occured to me. Hd dvd had it's big momentum gaining growth spurt after the Walmart sale. The week leading up to this there were numerous posts from hd dvd owners who were going to pick up a 2nd or 3rd player for different rooms.

Since we know alot of that went own, that would obviously skew the installed base numbers for HD DVD. IMO, the actual installed base would be maybe 450k to 550k, well below the installed base for bluray.

This would aslo explain the lower software sales this holiday season.

I don't read too many sigs with people with multiple blu players but I'm sure there are some.

Surely this is something Warner looked at when making their decision, and something paramount and universal should be looking at as well.

Agree, disagree? Thoughts.
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Old 01-12-2008, 03:52 PM
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Durring the $99 sale there were a lot of posts by people bragging that they purchased a second HD-DVD player for their bedroom. Of course these people probably didn't buy a second copy of 300 for that extra HD-DVD player.

I own more than 1 Blu-Ray player, and I don't have multiple copies of any of my movies!
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Old 01-12-2008, 03:53 PM
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is it still 1 million with all the recent returns?
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Old 01-12-2008, 03:57 PM
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LOL Ouch.
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Old 01-12-2008, 03:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Htown-D View Post
This just occured to me. Hd dvd had it's big momentum gaining growth spurt after the Walmart sale. The week leading up to this there were numerous posts from hd dvd owners who were going to pick up a 2nd or 3rd player for different rooms.

Since we know alot of that went own, that would obviously skew the installed base numbers for HD DVD. IMO, the actual installed base would be maybe 450k to 550k, well below the installed base for bluray.

This would aslo explain the lower software sales this holiday season.

I don't read too many sigs with people with multiple blu players but I'm sure there are some.

Surely this is something Warner looked at when making their decision, and something paramount and universal should be looking at as well.

Agree, disagree? Thoughts.
I think you overestimate the amount of people who buy more than 1 player. The number can't be more than 10-15% surely.

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Old 01-12-2008, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michealo View Post
is it still 1 million with all the recent returns?
It is not even 1 million without the returns. Toshiba had to say "almost one million" at CES. They could not say 1 million. 550k is almost 1 mllion if round it to nearest million...

And no, it would not mean 1 million consumers because we have seen plenty of people owing 2-3 players.
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Old 01-12-2008, 04:02 PM
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My guesstimate would have been ~750k owners.

I actually think people who own 2 may even own 3 in some cases.

I also think many people who enjoyed the 360 AO would be inclined to upgrade.

*shrug*

Not to mention people who simply upgraded from gen 1 players.
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Old 01-12-2008, 04:15 PM
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If it isn't, it makes the 60:40 software sales just that little more impressive for HD-DVD, those guys must have been buying everything they could get their hands on!
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Old 01-12-2008, 04:19 PM
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How many different owners? If there are 900,000 units, I would say there are 850,000 owners. I don't think there were really that many people buying second units.

Now- of those 850,000 - how many are purples- specifically how many BD owners went ahead and got an A2, A3, or A30 as they got below $200 so they didn't have to mess with any exclusive stuff.

Just by the sigs on this board, a lot of the Blu boys are like me, they have a PS3 in their sig along with an A2 or A3. I think that is probably the case for a bunch of the HD-DVDs sold since that A2 $99 sale and the A3 got under $200. For every person who did that on this board, who thought it was a firesale (but who also (now incorrectly) thought the war wasn't approaching a quick conclusion, how many people did it that were not fanatically Blu in the real world?

Clearly from the red-oganda on this board, Blu folks have more money than sense, so is there no logical conclusion that they could just blow without a thought $200 on a player just so they could watch Transformers?

I think the 850,000 also includes AT LEAST 250,000 people that have a Blu player too. That puts the number of orphaned HD-DVD only owners at less 600,000 people - that is significantly less than the now 2 million or so Blu owners (which includes those PS3 owners that watch movies on their machines)
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Old 01-12-2008, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchl View Post
Does 1 million hd dvd players mean 1 million customers?
It actually probably means even more. We have 3 people in our household, and only 1 HD DVD player. But all 3 people buy movies for it. Hmm.....

When you buy a microwave, do YOU own it? Or do you share it with your wife, partner, parents, kids, whomever?
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