*IF* .. a hypothetical thread .. - High-Def Digest Forums
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:11 PM
Rob.D.inToronto's Avatar
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 3,359
Default *IF* .. a hypothetical thread ..

If it turns out Tosh has 1.4 million A2s ready to sell, and if it manages to sell them in the next 60 days, along with another 200K a3s and 100K 360AOs, and that this then shifts the HDM into 65:35 by Jan 08, and it becomes clear that the J6P market has picked HD because of price, meaning HDM has a chance at going big time with cheaper HD players plowing the road, would the blu bloods buy an HD player or would they wait for the BDA to develop a lower price model for xMas 08?

I ask because with another 2M consoles/360AOs on the market disc sales will now start to hit a decent volume.

If Tosh cannot hit these targets, and manages to sell only 100 or 200K units then I have no doubt HD has < 1 year before Warner, PW/D and Universal change their positions. So the reds will have no choice BUT to buy a BD player.

It it does hit these targets Warner will drop BD just after the new years, and Disney will be planning to go neutral. Fox will simply run and hide.

xMas 07 is indeed turning out to be pivotal, and right now the side with the price advantage is Toshiba.

I always figured we'd hit 99 bucks next year. Things are just crazy right now.

My gut tells me that the entrenched factions on either side won't give up until the corpse starts to rot.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:14 PM
rded's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 484
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.D.inToronto View Post
If it turns out Tosh has 1.4 million A2s ready to sell, and if it manages to sell them in the next 60 days, along with another 200K a3s and 100K 360AOs, and that this then shifts the HDM into 65:35 by Jan 08, and it becomes clear that the J6P market has picked HD because of price, meaning HDM has a chance at going big time with cheaper HD players plowing the road, would the blu bloods buy an HD player or would they wait for the BDA to develop a lower price model for xMas 08?

I ask because with another 2M consoles/360AOs on the market disc sales will now start to hit a decent volume.

If Tosh cannot hit these targets, and manages to sell only 100 or 200K units then I have no doubt HD has < 1 year before Warner, PW/D and Universal change their positions. So the reds will have no choice BUT to buy a BD player.

It it does hit these targets Warner will drop BD just after the new years, and Disney will be planning to go neutral. Fox will simply run and hide.

xMas 07 is indeed turning out to be pivotal, and right now the side with the price advantage is Toshiba.

I always figured we'd hit 99 bucks next year. Things are just crazy right now.

My gut tells me that the entrenched factions on either side won't give up until the corpse starts to rot.



That's all an "IF"!!! Let me know when HD beats BD in sales, even for a week!
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:15 PM
rick240's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 995
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.D.inToronto View Post
and it becomes clear that the J6P market has picked HD because of price
This is part that I don't agree with.

J6P will not have chosen HD, they will have chosen a price.

It will then be up to the BDA to offer at that price, or relegate themselves to niche (and PS3 game delivery) status.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:17 PM
rded's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 484
Default

[QUOTE=rick240;412637]This is part that I don't agree with.

J6P will not have chosen HD, they will have chosen a price.





Besides, does the majority of JP6 even have an HDTV???
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:23 PM
Banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,247
Default

IF that happened, you bet the BDA wouldn't just sit and watch, not to mention Toshiba couldn't sustain those losses.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:27 PM
Rob.D.inToronto's Avatar
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 3,359
Default

I take it by the answers to date, then the answer is NO.

Fight the good fight!

J6P always picks price first, that's the rule.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:27 PM
Atomic Age's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,139
Default

[QUOTE=rded;412639]
Quote:
Originally Posted by rick240 View Post
This is part that I don't agree with.

J6P will not have chosen HD, they will have chosen a price.





Besides, does the majority of JP6 even have an HDTV???
Good question. Walmart has been selling lots of HDTVs. They are now the number one seller of HDTVs in the country. In fact its hard to find a TV at Walmart that isn't an HDTV. But who knows how many they have actually sold.

Doug
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:28 PM
dragonZ28's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 415
Default

Sales between BD and HD DVD have been pretty close these past weeks. I would imagine that they wouldn't need to sell an additional 1 million units to overtake a disc sales lead. Most BD players are PS3s, and a lot of those people don't care about movies, let alone Blu-Ray.

I think that Warner is going to watch the trends the rest of this year. If HD DVD doesn't take the lead, but does make significant gains, then Warner will be a toss-up. If HD DVD gains 2 weeks of sales wins before the year is out after losing every one so far this year, then that will be saying a lot, and Warner can't ignore it.

I don't know what will happen, but if a blu-Ray stand alone doesn't hit, and stay, at the $199 price point, then the BDA is going to have problems because they will still be in a niche market while HD DVD has walked into the mainstream.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:30 PM
dragonZ28's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 415
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rick240 View Post
This is part that I don't agree with.

J6P will not have chosen HD, they will have chosen a price.

It will then be up to the BDA to offer at that price, or relegate themselves to niche (and PS3 game delivery) status.
Correct - if Blu-Ray hit the price first, they would be selling out of those everywhere. Sadly for them, their rival is in this situation.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-04-2007, 09:38 PM
steaky's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,616
Default

[QUOTE=Atomic Age;412666]
Quote:
Originally Posted by rded View Post

Good question. Walmart has been selling lots of HDTVs. They are now the number one seller of HDTVs in the country. In fact its hard to find a TV at Walmart that isn't an HDTV. But who knows how many they have actually sold.

Doug

IMO Walmart is selling HDTVs to people who want a slim TV, not a HD picture. Bestbuy survery of their consumer not knowing if they have HD content probably applies as well, and many may not care.

I know several people like this, HDTV, no HD content and no plans to get any. I dont understand how they put up with the poor quality TV, but Im not them!
Reply With Quote
Reply

Related Topics
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A hypothetical for Blu fans hdfan90 High Definition Smackdown 21 12-13-2007 05:24 AM
Hypothetical: N and S America (HD DVD exclusive) Europe,Asia,Africa,Aus (Blu-ray exc) Dust High Definition Smackdown 18 11-28-2007 09:12 PM
Hypothetical format war end/truce Htown-D High Definition Smackdown 11 11-09-2007 07:47 PM
Hypothetical, even if 30gb was enough... ChrisInCali High Definition Smackdown 41 08-20-2007 11:21 PM


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off