If Blu-ray has 10x more players sold why aren't BD sales 10x more? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 01-20-2007, 08:20 PM
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Default If Blu-ray has 10x more players sold why aren't BD sales 10x more?

I started thinking during a long drive I had to do yesterday. I put in "smackdown" because I know it will go that route, but I really am trying for a more serious debate.

Looking at the sales numbers from various sites, Blu-Ray is either slightly behind to slightly ahead of HD DVD. The fact is neither is dominating the movie sells. And there is the PS3 effect. Blu-Ray caught up to HD DVD with PS3.

Lets just say, for argument's sake, that there are 1 million PS3 and Blu-Ray players in people homes. And, again for argument's sake, there are 200,000 HD DVD players which includes the Microsoft add-onn in homes. These numbers may be wrong, but my point is there are more Blu-Ray players sold. Running with these numbers, it is a 5:1 advantage.

But with 5 times more players in people's home, why isn't Blu-Ray selling 5 times more movies? They do have plenty of movies out there. Why isn't Blu-Ray even selling twice as many? By all rights, Blu-Ray should be destroying HD DVD, but it is not. They are about tied in the most important category of all: sold movies.

Clearly, the PS3 has enabled Blu-Ray to catch up. But, PS3 is stagnant. It isn't selling well at all. And, based on the facts above, most people don't use for movies. Meanwhile, HD DVD players outsell Blu-Ray standalones simply because it is cheaper.

I think that in the next several months, HD DVD movies will once again start to slowly pull away. Barring a huge price cut, PS3 isn't going to sell much. So the effect from it has been done and will not increase much more. Even if more PS3 are sold than all HD DVD players, clearly it hasn't become a movie machine for most. If it has, Blu-Ray should been selling at least twice as many movies, which it isn't. Meanwhile, more HD DVD players will be sold because it is cheaper (soon much cheaper with China making some) and because the consumer is ignorant of our debates or technology. HD DVD will slowly increase, but Blu-Ray even slower.

I also predict that studios will rethink their decisions, though not necessarily change them. Most companies sides with Blu-Ray hoping for a quick finish. That won't happen. So they'll at least have to ask themselves if they are on the right side. Remember, it is the consumers who will decide this war, not studios.

I know my argument has flaws. After all, anything bad for either side must be untrue. Duh. Now, start the smackdown. Though I'd rather it be more serious. Feel free to correct my numbers.
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Old 01-20-2007, 08:27 PM
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Based on the PS3, and all the upcoming and recently released released Blu-Ray movies Blu-Ray should be dominating. Blu-Ray should be selling alot more movies based on the media hype of the PS3. Instead "OMG a $500 Blu-Ray player! A $600 Blu-Ray player!" it turned into "A $500 and $600 videogame system? Eeek!"

Bothing formats are going to be around for a few years, my guess is around four.
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Old 01-20-2007, 09:15 PM
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Wade, good analysis and it mirrors more or less my own feeling about the situation. PS3 should be dominating but it isn't. PS3 sales are slowing down as well and many initial buyers have been disappointed in the variety of games for it and the fact that the games are not really better than those on the 360.

All sources that I have seen show the 360 still outselling the PS3 by a large margin, even where the PS3s are readily available such as at Gamestop or Best Buy (at least in many areas). Assuming that there is a certain buy in ratio for the 360 add-on, I think it very possible that the PS3 effect will slow down and the HD DVD momentum will continue to gain pace, even if at a relatively leisurely pace. On top of that, the HD DVD stand-alones have been way outselling the Blu-ray stand-alones, so taking this all into consideration I can easily see HD DVD keeping pace with Blu-ray, if not outselling it. This does not mean I expect this to happen immediately, just pointing out that IMO there are a lot of factors at work here.
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Old 01-20-2007, 09:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_i_am_wade View Post
I started thinking during a long drive I had to do yesterday. I put in "smackdown" because I know it will go that route, but I really am trying for a more serious debate.

Looking at the sales numbers from various sites, Blu-Ray is either slightly behind to slightly ahead of HD DVD. The fact is neither is dominating the movie sells. And there is the PS3 effect. Blu-Ray caught up to HD DVD with PS3.

Lets just say, for argument's sake, that there are 1 million PS3 and Blu-Ray players in people homes. And, again for argument's sake, there are 200,000 HD DVD players which includes the Microsoft add-onn in homes. These numbers may be wrong, but my point is there are more Blu-Ray players sold. Running with these numbers, it is a 5:1 advantage.

But with 5 times more players in people's home, why isn't Blu-Ray selling 5 times more movies? They do have plenty of movies out there. Why isn't Blu-Ray even selling twice as many? By all rights, Blu-Ray should be destroying HD DVD, but it is not. They are about tied in the most important category of all: sold movies.

Clearly, the PS3 has enabled Blu-Ray to catch up. But, PS3 is stagnant. It isn't selling well at all. And, based on the facts above, most people don't use for movies. Meanwhile, HD DVD players outsell Blu-Ray standalones simply because it is cheaper.

I think that in the next several months, HD DVD movies will once again start to slowly pull away. Barring a huge price cut, PS3 isn't going to sell much. So the effect from it has been done and will not increase much more. Even if more PS3 are sold than all HD DVD players, clearly it hasn't become a movie machine for most. If it has, Blu-Ray should been selling at least twice as many movies, which it isn't. Meanwhile, more HD DVD players will be sold because it is cheaper (soon much cheaper with China making some) and because the consumer is ignorant of our debates or technology. HD DVD will slowly increase, but Blu-Ray even slower.

I also predict that studios will rethink their decisions, though not necessarily change them. Most companies sides with Blu-Ray hoping for a quick finish. That won't happen. So they'll at least have to ask themselves if they are on the right side. Remember, it is the consumers who will decide this war, not studios.

I know my argument has flaws. After all, anything bad for either side must be untrue. Duh. Now, start the smackdown. Though I'd rather it be more serious. Feel free to correct my numbers.
Not all PS3 owners buy Blu-ray.

However a significant proportion do buy, and looking at sources like DVD Empire we can see that Blu-ray now has 58% market share and that share keeps on expanding each week.

If, and that's a big IF Blu-ray continued to expand faster than HD-DVD at the current rate there would be 2:1 Blu-ray to HD-DVD sales in just a few more weeks. (To make it clear 2:1 would mean 66.6% to blu-ray - it is not far from this).

Last edited by HarakoMeshi; 01-20-2007 at 09:26 PM.
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Old 01-20-2007, 09:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarakoMeshi View Post
However a significant proportion do buy, and looking at sources like DVD Empire we can see that Blu-ray now has 58% market share and that share keeps on expanding each week.
Again, DVD Empire does not represent entire market share it represents sales on DVD Empire. In just the same way, Amazon does not represent entire market sales rankings - just Amazon represents a larger percentage of the market than does DVD Empire (and, no, this is not an opinion, it is common sense).
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Old 01-20-2007, 09:50 PM
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This is a good thread so far. Not one fanboy has jumped in with crazy spins or lies just yet. Harako, shouldn't you be calling for backup?
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Old 01-20-2007, 10:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blurry View Post
Again, DVD Empire does not represent entire market share it represents sales on DVD Empire. In just the same way, Amazon does not represent entire market sales rankings - just Amazon represents a larger percentage of the market than does DVD Empire (and, no, this is not an opinion, it is common sense).
Yes, but again this represents a random sample of the market.

Just a month ago DVD Empire showed a 2:1 advantage in HD-DVD favor, and now the tables have flipped. This doesn't show the whole market but it certainly shows very big change.

If anything, the change in the whole market may be even bigger than the limited DVD Empire shows us. If a small part of the market has seen such wild change, imagine the rest.
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Old 01-20-2007, 10:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarakoMeshi View Post
Yes, but again this represents a random sample of the market.

Just a month ago DVD Empire showed a 2:1 advantage in HD-DVD favor, and now the tables have flipped. This doesn't show the whole market but it certainly shows very big change.

If anything, the change in the whole market may be even bigger than the limited DVD Empire shows us. If a small part of the market has seen such wild change, imagine the rest.

Your speculating.......again....that could go either way, and so far Bluray would have to show solid proof in more than one store for anyone to belive this. Thats like saying HD is dominating because of the stats listed in polls on this site.
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Old 01-20-2007, 10:11 PM
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Your speculating.......again....that could go either way, and so far Bluray would have to show solid proof in more than one store for anyone to belive this. Thats like saying HD is dominating because of the stats listed in polls on this site.
I am speculating, but it is common sense. There is no reason for DVD Empire to be biassed towards Blu-ray, especially when they clearly tell us HD DVD dominated all of last year except Devember.

Imagine you have a big box full of red marbles, and a small cup in the middle (which represents DVD Empire). Now you randomly drop in a lot of blue marbles. Well if it's really random and there are a lot of blue marbles then the small cup will get its fair share of the total, but if there are not so many blue marbles chances are the small cup won't catch many.

It's fairly simple logic I'm sure anyone could understand.

We also have words coming from Best Buy, and from studios. This site with less than 200 people is a much smaller sample than the Sound & Vision website which had over 10,000 votes and turned in Blu-ray's favor. DVD Empire apparently has 2.5 million visitors every month so it is not such small fish.

Last edited by HarakoMeshi; 01-20-2007 at 10:13 PM.
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Old 01-20-2007, 10:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarakoMeshi View Post
I am speculating, but it is common sense. There is no reason for DVD Empire to be biassed towards Blu-ray, especially when they clearly tell us HD DVD dominated all of last year except Devember.
...
It's fairly simple logic I'm sure anyone could understand.
I don't know, so many other retailers appear biased towards BR - of course, Sony and the BR people are paying them nicely to do so. Meanwhile HD-DVD barely advertises itself, and the children weep.

Assuming your speculation is logical and therefor everyone who disagrees with you is illogical = not so great.
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