Nostradamus Game for October 7, 2007 - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 10-08-2007, 02:12 AM
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Default Nostradamus Game for October 7, 2007

Time for everyone's favorite thread: the weekly Nostradamus Game! This is a prediction game where everyone is welcome to predict the Nielson ratings for each week. Predictions include the top ten sellers and the overall ratio.

This week begins the Nostradamus Championship Series. Scores for all participating players will be totaled throughout Q4 and the overall winner will be announced January, 2008. Everyone is welcome to participate. You participate simply by posting your predictions. All participants' scores will be tracked, no matter what week you start or stop posting. Of course, the best way to win is to participate each week, so we all look forward to everyone's predictions.

The Rules

A valid prediction consists of a top ten list of best sellers and a sales ratio. Predictions must be submitted before noon Wednesday of each week. That means all predictions posted or edited after 11:59 am Pacific Time on Wednesday of each week will be disqualified. You may edit your predictions as much as you like before the dealine. An example prediction looks like this (you don't have to use this format exactly):

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiberius View Post
  1. Underworld (Blu-ray)
  2. Troy (Blu-ray)
  3. Knocked Up (HD DVD)
  4. 300 (Blu-ray)
  5. Memoirs of a Geisha (Blu-ray)
  6. 300 (HD DVD)
  7. We Are Marshall (Blu-ray)
  8. Gothika (Blu-ray)
  9. Planet Earth (Blu-ray)
  10. Casino Royale (Blu-ray)

Ratio - 66:34 Blu-ray
As a favor and to help avoid errors, please number your top ten picks or use the numbered list feature. That way I don't have to keep counting your entries. Also, please either label your picks with their format or colour them (blue for Blu-ray and red for HD DVD, obviously). This is particularly important on dual format releases so I know how to score them.

Also remember that this is a Sales Data and Ranks smackdown forum and not a "you're losing the NCS - what a stupid moron!" forum. Debating sales positions and ratios is perfectly fine. Telling someone they are a clod for losing is not.

Scoring

Weekly scoring:
(Balian's scoring rules)
Points breakdown for each position predicted correctly:
1. 200 pts
2. 150 pts
3. 100 pts
4. 80 pts
5. 60 pts
6. 50 pts
7. 40 pts
8. 30 pts
9. 22 pts
10. 18 pts

If your pick falls within (-/+) 1 position, you get half of the points. For example, if you pick Apocalypto to be #4 and the actual number is #3, you will get 40 pts. If you pick DMC to be #1 and it turns out to be #2, you will get 100 pts.
--------------------------
For the ratio:
Total Difference
0 - 250 pts
2 - 150 pts
4 - 100 pts
6 - 50 pts
8 - 25 pts

If you guess the ratio spot on with a total point difference of 0, you will get 250 pt. If you guess 60:40 and the actual ratio is 58:42, your difference is 4 and you will get 100 pts. Savvy?

If you are Nostradamus, you will get 1000 pts for being perfect.

A complete breakdown of the weekly scores will always be posted so that anyone may double check for accuracy. After inputting your predictions, a program tabulates the results and reports exactly how those results were obtained. So hopefully there will be no errors.

NCS scoring:
The Championship scores will be the total of your eleven highest weekly scores. If you miss a week you simply won't receive any points that week. There are thirteen weeks in the Championship (October 7 through December 30). Of these thirteen weekly scores, the two lowest scores will be discarded. The eleven remaining weekly scores will be counted towards your Championship score. At the end of Q4 (i.e. the week ending December 30, 2007) the player with the most total points will be the Champion.

Prizes

At the end of the Championship the Champion will receive a prize pack consisting of three movies chosen from a list provided by High-Def Digest. The prize will only be awarded to one winner and only at the end of the Championship.

Miscellaneous

In order to give everyone plenty of time to post their predictions, I will endeavor to start each week's Nostradamus Game thread the weekend ending the corresponding week. Thus everyone should have at least Monday through Wednesday to make their predictions. If by Tuesday night (night meaning after 8:00 PM Pacific Time) the week's thread has not been started, then someone please take the initiative and start the thread. I don't forsee this ever being needed, but then I'm no good at predicting these top sellers, let alone my own future.

Now for this week

This week's Blu-ray releases are:
  • Bram Stoker's Dracula (Sony)
  • Dawn of the Dead (1978) (Starz)
  • The Day After Tomorrow (Fox)
  • Day of the Dead (1985) (Starz)
  • Evil Dead 2: Dead by Dawn (Starz)
  • Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox)
  • Galapagos (BBC)
  • Halloween (1978) (Starz)
  • A Room with a View (BBC)

This week's HD DVD releases are:
  • The Ant Bully (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • The Departed (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Dreaming Nevada (The Picture)
  • The Fountain (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Galapagos (BBC)
  • Good Night, and Good Luck (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Happy Feet (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Lady in the Water (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • The Lake House (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Letters from Iwo Jima (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • A Room with a View (BBC)
  • Rumor Has It... (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Superman Returns (Re-Issue) (Warner)
  • Top Gun (Paramount)

Now make your predictions and good luck!

Last edited by tiberius; 11-04-2007 at 12:32 AM. Reason: Change the deadline for posting or editing picks
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  #2  
Old 10-08-2007, 02:27 AM
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1. FF4
2. Knocked Up
3. 300 BD
4. The Day After Tomorrow
5. Underworld
6. Next
7. Galapagos BD
8. Troy BD
9. 300 HD DVD
10. We Are Marshall BD

71:29, and FF4 will outsell everything else by at least 5:1.
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Old 10-08-2007, 02:28 AM
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Default My predictions

  1. Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer (Blu-ray)
  2. 300 (Blu-ray)
  3. Knocked Up (HD DVD)
  4. Troy (Blu-ray)
  5. 300 (HD DVD)
  6. Bram Stoker's Dracula (Blu-ray)
  7. Underworld (Blu-ray)
  8. Galapagos (Blu-ray)
  9. Casino Royale (Blu-ray)
  10. Top Gun (HD DVD)

Ratio - 77:23 Blu-ray

Last edited by tiberius; 10-10-2007 at 03:51 PM. Reason: Adjusting the top ten a little
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Old 10-08-2007, 02:31 AM
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77:28? You should get points deducted for your math
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Old 10-08-2007, 02:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corduroygt View Post
77:28? You should get points deducted for your math
Doh!! Thanks for pointing that out.

btw - the tabulation program only asks for the Blu-ray portion of the ratio, so any "fuzzy math" errors aren't subtracted from the points. I just always use whatever the Blu-ray number is and ignore the HD DVD number. That way I'm less likely to make errors entering the data.
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Old 10-08-2007, 08:18 AM
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1. FF2
2. Day after Tomorrow

3. Knocked Up
4. 300
5. 300
6. Galapagos
7. Galapagos
8. Top Gun

9. Casino Royale
10. Troy


69:31
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Old 10-08-2007, 12:31 PM
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1. FF2
2. Day After Tomorrow
3. 300
4. Knocked Up
5. 300
6. Troy
7. Planet Earth
8. Casino Royal
9. Planet Earth
10. Underworld

76:24

Here's hoping I cant do as badly as last week
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Old 10-08-2007, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiberius View Post
If you guess the ratio spot on with a total point difference of 0, you will get 260 pt.
Where did the extra 10 points come from
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Old 10-08-2007, 12:46 PM
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73:27 Blu-ray

1. FF:ROSS
2. 300
3. Knocked Up
4. Day After Tomorrow
5. Dracula
6. 300
7. Troy
8. Top Gun
9. Planet Earth
10. Casino Royale

Last edited by Nighthawk; 10-09-2007 at 07:06 PM.
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Old 10-08-2007, 12:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveS1138 View Post
Where did the extra 10 points come from
I just copied that directly from Balian's original scoring rules. I've fixed the top post to correctly say 250 points. Thanks for pointing that out.
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