This fall.... make it or break it for HD-DVD - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:01 PM
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Default This fall.... make it or break it for HD-DVD

If after the Parmount/Dreamworks defection HD-DVD can't make it back to 50/50 in software sales by Christmas, it will look pretty bad for that format.

I think (but of course, don't know - no one does) that we will see dramatic improvements in HD-DVD software sales in the next month or two.

The PS3 clouds the whole 'hardware sales' issue, but software is pretty straightforward.

The Blockbuster announcement, Target and the end-caps, those were nice little wins for blu. But Parmount/DW is the Battle of Midway. It's significant that two major studios said, 'we've done blu-ray, and it's not for us'. There are neutral studios, and dedicated studios. But we'd never seen studios quit one of the formats before. And big studios at that.

So I'll be watching the software sales with much interest this fall. If it gets back to 50/50 (and I think it will) where will we be - stalemate? Or beginning of the end for blu-ray?

It's going to be an interesting fall.....
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:05 PM
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If it goes 50:50 Disney and Lionsgate will go neutral.

That will simply entrench stalemate for good.
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:06 PM
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Even if HDDVD was 50:50 I don't see how it would help HD-DVD. Eventually when the market is big, all studios would release on both formats in that case. However, Sony wouldn't, so Blu-ray still would win because people would buy a cheaper Blu-ray only player than a more expensive combo player, since both would be able to play all movies.
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Rob.D.inToronto View Post
If it goes 50:50 Disney and Lionsgate will go neutral.

That will simply entrench stalemate for good.
And Paramount and Universal wouldn't????
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by corduroygt View Post
Even if HDDVD was 50:50 I don't see how it would help HD-DVD. Eventually when the market is big, all studios would release on both formats in that case. However, Sony wouldn't, so Blu-ray still would win because people would buy a cheaper Blu-ray only player than a more expensive combo player, since both would be able to play all movies.
No, I'm saying it should be 50/50 this fall. Then if next year it's 70/30 and studios are defecting you still think 'all studios would release on both formats'??

No one can see the future, but here's a prediction I'd bet the bank on - we will never see 'all studios release on both formats'.
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:15 PM
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Here's my prediction:

It will be at least three years (at the least!) before there is a "winner" and everyone that is so adament in defending one side versus the other will be tired and worn down by that time.

High def, in whatever format, must show the ability to somewhat match standard def sales before anyone can say anything is make or break.
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Jodet View Post
No, I'm saying it should be 50/50 this fall. Then if next year it's 70/30 and studios are defecting you still think 'all studios would release on both formats'??

No one can see the future, but here's a prediction I'd bet the bank on - we will never see 'all studios release on both formats'.
I agree too, but here's something I would bank on, we'll see all studios releasing on blu-ray...
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Old 09-09-2007, 02:21 PM
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Personally, I don't think HD DVD can get to 50/50 this year. The PS3 will once again be a hot item this holiday (kiddies need their toys) so we may see sales of both formats increase significantly.

It'll be interesting, but I don't think HD DVD can pull ahead. Of course, that doesn't mean its dead and I don't think this fall is make or break. I think that all went out the window with the Paramount/Dreamworks deal. HD DVD has some life left in it, even if it doesn't tie things up this holiday.
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Old 09-09-2007, 03:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jodet View Post
If after the Parmount/Dreamworks defection HD-DVD can't make it back to 50/50 in software sales by Christmas, it will look pretty bad for that format.

I think (but of course, don't know - no one does) that we will see dramatic improvements in HD-DVD software sales in the next month or two.

The PS3 clouds the whole 'hardware sales' issue, but software is pretty straightforward.

The Blockbuster announcement, Target and the end-caps, those were nice little wins for blu. But Parmount/DW is the Battle of Midway. It's significant that two major studios said, 'we've done blu-ray, and it's not for us'. There are neutral studios, and dedicated studios. But we'd never seen studios quit one of the formats before. And big studios at that.

So I'll be watching the software sales with much interest this fall. If it gets back to 50/50 (and I think it will) where will we be - stalemate? Or beginning of the end for blu-ray?

It's going to be an interesting fall.....
This Fall is not what HD DVD is aiming for. They are looking at Spring 2008. Their whole strategy is getting cheap players in peoples houses this Christmas. From the Cedia news it looks like people will have multiple options for < $199.00 MSRP HD DVD players for the holidays. At least for now, the cheapest MSRP Blu-Ray player is $499.00. That's a huge difference. All those new HD DVD players will start generating increased software sales in early 2008.

As far as the PS3 is concerned, it's going to have a rough Christmas against the Wii and the Xbox 360 with barely a couple of worthwhile games and still a price handicap.

If HD DVD manages to get to 50-50 this Fall, it would be a major surprise and a real big signal to the studios that Blu-Ray is finished. With the announcement of TL51 HD DVD's a mayor propaganda point for Blu-Ray was made moot. Overall thinks are looking up for HD DVD.
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Old 09-09-2007, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by corduroygt View Post
And Paramount and Universal wouldn't????
No bcuz there already on the losing team. If there team can make a come back to tie the game, why would they go netural??? The ball would be in there hands.
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