PS3 Movie buying rate. - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:03 AM
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Default PS3 Movie buying rate.

I see many people saying that only 5% of PS3 owners are buying BD movies. They are saying since 5% of Xbox 360 users are buying the HD-DVD add-on that is a good #. I think the #'s are alot higher. 360 users are having to go out a BUY the add-on, PS3 users already have the ability to play movies. Not having to go out a buy a add-on will in turn be a higher user rate of BD. Any guesses on what % you think use it for BD movies?
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by midnight302 View Post
I see many people saying that only 5% of PS3 owners are buying BD movies. They are saying since 5% of Xbox 360 users are buying the HD-DVD add-on that is a good #. I think the #'s are alot higher. 360 users are having to go out a BUY the add-on, PS3 users already have the ability to play movies. Not having to go out a buy a add-on will in turn be a higher user rate of BD. Any guesses on what % you think use it for BD movies?
Considering 1 in 5 homes has a HD television, I would estimate 20% would be logical.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:08 AM
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sony said 80% of the people who filled out questions when signing up for online said blu-ray.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:21 AM
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I posted this in another thread that's closed now, the 80% number doesn't jive and I question the methodology.
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That last one is what really bugged me, they're trying to claim that Talli.Nights was one of the top selling titles. And that they're selling 7 times the number of titles due to the PS3. But they included the movie with the PS3 system. So basically they're saying that people who got the movie for free went out and bought the movie again? Nothing with their numbers adds up, which means they're being intentionally deceptive, which means they're doing worse than what they said.

According to one of the surveys talked about here there are 25,000 BD players (non-PS3). Sony is attributing a 700% increase in sales to the PS3, assuming they're just as vivid movie watchers as stand-alone player consumers (which I would actually expect less) that would be 150,000 movie watchers of the total PS3s in 2006. Sony also claims that they shipped their 1,000,000 goal AND have an 80% adoption rate for Blu-ray movies, which would be 800,000 active movie watchers. Their numbers are off by about 650,000 users.
I had mentioned it before, but I'll re-reference it again. If you watch "An Evening with Kevin Smith 2: Evening Harder (Toronto)", Kevin tells a story about Prince. What Prince did was incorporate the cost of his CD into the concert ticket price for a tour. And when everyone attended the concert to see Prince, "Cause it's Prince", they were given a 'free' CD when they entered, even if the person had the CD or never intended to buy the CD. As a result he ended up with a top-selling CD. This is what I smell with Talli.Nights. A top selling Blu-ray Disc, that was given away 'for free' to 95% of Blu-ray consumers.

Edit: I think in the "Blu-ray News" pamphlet that was scanned by moe it mentioned a 20 titles/player annualized rate for BD, compared to 28 for HD DVD. But according to the math I posted, either that 80% is wrong or a 7x increase is spread out amongst the 80% (800,000 players) resulting in around 3 titles/player annualized rate. So they're liars, deceivers or doing shitty, any way you cut it it's not good.

Last edited by Aodh; 01-10-2007 at 11:25 AM.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:29 AM
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I believe 100% of the people will try Blu-ray on PS3. With both Netflix and BB Online supporting the format, it is a no brainer to at least give Blu-ray a try. This alone will help to boost sales numbers a bit as these chains must stock up.

How many stick with it? I would think a number closer to 50% or so. Some PS3 owners will be the type not to connect to HD displays or to just have it 100% for gaming. But, I think many more than 50% will have it hooked up most of the time to a HD display via HDMI. Since the connection is so easy to make, it allows them to hook up to any HDTV really easily.

But, as a complete guesstimate, I think people actively buying movies for their PS3 will be closer to 60%. The game site numbers indicate well over 80%, but I think that is high. The reality of HD displays with console owners is likely higher than the national average (by a long shot) so it is not at all unlikely we will see an overall 60% or so buy in for Blu-ray by PS3 owners.

I know that anyone who goes to any sites with lots of PS3 owners will find that most are buying for it, or intend to over the next year as titles become available.
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Old 01-10-2007, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by apocknight View Post
sony said 80% of the people who filled out questions when signing up for online said blu-ray.
Sony says a lot of things....
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Old 01-10-2007, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by HD-DED View Post
I believe 100% of the people will try Blu-ray on PS3. With both Netflix and BB Online supporting the format, it is a no brainer to at least give Blu-ray a try. This alone will help to boost sales numbers a bit as these chains must stock up.

How many stick with it? I would think a number closer to 50% or so. Some PS3 owners will be the type not to connect to HD displays or to just have it 100% for gaming. But, I think many more than 50% will have it hooked up most of the time to a HD display via HDMI. Since the connection is so easy to make, it allows them to hook up to any HDTV really easily.

But, as a complete guesstimate, I think people actively buying movies for their PS3 will be closer to 60%. The game site numbers indicate well over 80%, but I think that is high. The reality of HD displays with console owners is likely higher than the national average (by a long shot) so it is not at all unlikely we will see an overall 60% or so buy in for Blu-ray by PS3 owners.

I know that anyone who goes to any sites with lots of PS3 owners will find that most are buying for it, or intend to over the next year as titles become available.
So you're saying that 100% of the people who have purchased a PS3 already own an HDTV? I find that number extremely doubtful.

Even Sony's numbers are saying that only 25% of households in the US even own an HDTV.

I won't argue with your other numbers as they are as valid as my numbers until we have sales to back up our guesstimates.
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Old 01-10-2007, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by HD-DED View Post
But, as a complete guesstimate, I think people actively buying movies for their PS3 will be closer to 60%. The game site numbers indicate well over 80%, but I think that is high. The reality of HD displays with console owners is likely higher than the national average (by a long shot) so it is not at all unlikely we will see an overall 60% or so buy in for Blu-ray by PS3 owners.

I know that anyone who goes to any sites with lots of PS3 owners will find that most are buying for it, or intend to over the next year as titles become available.

I agree that there is a much higher % of PS3 owners have HDTV set. If your going to spend $600 on a PS3 your most likely going to have paid for a nice set for it. Going with the 60% guess I REPEAT GUESS!! If Sony sells 6 million PS3's and just pulling that # out of my azz This year. That is 3.6 million people with buying power into the format. As the year goes on and more High def Tv's are put in homes that 60% will go up. I know many get mad at Sony for pushing the Format. But I think it will work!
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Old 01-10-2007, 12:22 PM
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I don't know, MS is offering some pretty damn good reasons to buy 360's now, if they continue to show off some of the stuff they started to at CES it may drastically reduce the number of PS3s sold.
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Old 01-10-2007, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Gnome View Post
So you're saying that 100% of the people who have purchased a PS3 already own an HDTV? I find that number extremely doubtful.
Absolutely not. I'm saying that close to 100% of people will try Blu-ray regardless of their display just to see how it looks and because it is available from Netflix/BB Online. If it doesn't cost one cent more to TRY it, then people likely will - even if they are only connected via composite video.

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Originally Posted by Gnome View Post
Even Sony's numbers are saying that only 25% of households in the US even own an HDTV.
And far less than 25% own a PS3. It isn't about the percentage of Americans who own a HDTV, it is about the number of PS3 owners who own a PS3. I have no idea what that number is, but I believe that 50% would be a very low number and 75% or more is far more likely.

For comparison, while I still have many friends who don't own a HDTV, I know that about half of my friends/family last year purchased at least one. It'll probably be the same this year.

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Originally Posted by Gnome View Post
I won't argue with your other numbers as they are as valid as my numbers until we have sales to back up our guesstimates.
Yep - keep in mind always that I'm just giving my opinion and guessing on these figures. But, I'm happy to explain my reasoning further if anyone wants that reasoning.
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