CEDIA interview with Alan Bell - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 09-08-2007, 02:18 AM
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Default CEDIA interview with Alan Bell

I hope this hasn't been posted already, but if so then please merge with the other thread.

http://blog.ultimateavmag.com/cedia2007/90607alanbell/

The last part of the article..


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Alan also believes that HD DVD has much greater capability to ramp up to massive scale for HD releases. There are more replciation lines available for HD DVD, and because of its similarity to DVD bringing new lines up for HD DVD will be faster, cheaper and easier.

HD DVD is already achieving significantly higher yields in replication at much lower costs. Alan also explained that bringing a replication facility online for Blu-ray requires a massive up front expenditure in equipment, and once that's complete that line is Blu-ray Disc only. HD DVD replication requires something more along the lines of a retrofit, is cheaper by several orders of magnitude, and that same line can still replicate DVDs, offering greater utility.

When I pointed out that most of this was known over a year ago, when Paramount embarked on the dual-format platform, Alan's response was interesting. He said that knowing something on paper is much different than experiencing it firsthand. He described Paramount's year-long foray in dual format releases as offering invaluable experience which led to the decision to back HD DVD. He also felt that Blu-ray's 50GB capacity hasn't panned out to be the qualitative advantage it was supposed to be with the next-gen audio and video codecs.

Overall, Alan's message was that HD DVD represents the simplest and most cost effective way for Paramount to offer the best HD experience to consumers, and that HD DVD will in turn remain more cost effective for consumers, which will bring more people to adopt HD in general
Sounds like it going to be a while before Blu-ray competes on price, and frankly I think it may come too late.
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Old 09-08-2007, 03:03 AM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Sounds like it going to be a while before Blu-ray competes on price, and frankly I think it may come too late.
Except that in terms of replication costs, it's already very similar (comparing 25GB and 30GB discs, some plants charge slightly higher for one, other plants charge slightly higher for the other).

And in terms of hardware, the price differential is already shrinking, and most people are informed enough to know that the biggest difference is how much of a loss Toshiba is willing to take on each player sold, whereas BD players are sold at at least SOME markup (PS3 obviously excluded).
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Old 09-08-2007, 03:15 AM
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And in terms of hardware, the price differential is already shrinking.
It is? It was $200 a year ago, and it still is today, and the street price differential is usually even bigger.
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Old 09-08-2007, 03:17 AM
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most people are informed enough to know toshibas taking a loss?

I highly doubt that.
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Old 09-08-2007, 04:48 AM
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Originally Posted by dolphinius_rex View Post
Except that in terms of replication costs, it's already very similar (comparing 25GB and 30GB discs, some plants charge slightly higher for one, other plants charge slightly higher for the other).
Maybe it is or maybe it isn't (no reports on price of discs are consistant) but what about in the future?

HD DVD already has the inferstructre in place - Blu-Ray doesn't. Blu-Ray needs new production lines building, HD DVD doesn't. Blu-Ray will undoubtably have yield issues with their new plants, HD DVD reportedly doesn't.

Look to the future, don't just look to today. When we reach the stage of millions of discs produced each year, which format is likely to be cheaper and more efficient?
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Old 09-08-2007, 05:42 AM
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It is? It was $200 a year ago, and it still is today, and the street price differential is usually even bigger.
It was $400 or more a year ago for stand-alones...
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Old 09-08-2007, 08:04 AM
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It was $400 or more a year ago for stand-alones...
You can get the $499 Sony without Dolby TrueHD or PIP or ethernet connection which is the same price as the 1st generation Toshiba a year & a half ago with all those features.

It's a great value.
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Old 09-08-2007, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by dolphinius_rex View Post
Except that in terms of replication costs, it's already very similar (comparing 25GB and 30GB discs, some plants charge slightly higher for one, other plants charge slightly higher for the other).

And in terms of hardware, the price differential is already shrinking, and most people are informed enough to know that the biggest difference is how much of a loss Toshiba is willing to take on each player sold, whereas BD players are sold at at least SOME markup (PS3 obviously excluded).
I'm sorry are you an insider? Did I miss something?
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Old 09-08-2007, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Treadstone View Post
I'm sorry are you an insider? Did I miss something?
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Originally Posted by dolphinus rex View Post
Yeah I mean... what do *I* know right? I only work for a replication broker with contracts with both Sony and Cinram (Cinram is the largest manufacturer of replicated optical discs in the world), as well as several other large manufacturing plants world wide.
It looks as though he knows what he's talking about.
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Old 09-08-2007, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by emjay View Post
It is? It was $200 a year ago, and it still is today, and the street price differential is usually even bigger.
What, exactly, are you referring to? --The 360 add-on? Because that's the only HD machine that was $200 "a year ago". Oh, wait: that didn't release until November 2006. So, that means that there was NO HD MACHINE at $200 a year ago.

And, (hello, fantasyland) I bought my HD-A2 at the end of December for $499.99 from Best Buy. (Again, NOT $200.)

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Originally Posted by marine92104 View Post
You can get the $499 Sony without Dolby TrueHD or PIP or ethernet connection which is the same price as the 1st generation Toshiba a year & a half ago with all those features.

It's a great value.
True, regarding FIRST GENERATION Toshiba. However, I am not aware of anything in the SECOND GENERATION Toshiba line (which people can actually currently purchase) that has analog multichannel outs like the current $499 Sony standalone. (Let's also forget that ALL 1st gen Toshiba's only handled 1080i video; whereas ALL BD machines have always supported 1080p.)

Of course, you could also get a $499 PS3 which DOES have Dolby TrueHD decoding, and ethernet, and a 60gb drive, and can play games, and can actually load & play an HD movie within 10secs of startup (unlike the pokey 40sec startup on the HD-A2/20).
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