The J6P Effect, Not PS3 effect important - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 09-03-2007, 09:29 AM
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Default The J6P Effect, Not PS3 effect important

Im nutral but I can see that HD DVD will be around for a long time and we will be format nutral whether it be later rather than sooner.

Here is my reasoning.

HD DVD is the format for right now, it does was it is advertised to do, with regard to internet connectivity and interactive ability on titles which is not half bad as those who have used U-Control with agree, it is stable has decent enough studio backing and is cheap.

Blu Ray is as the BDA have stated the format for the future, which is also the problem right now, nor is it as cheap as HD DVD

If J6P goes into a store to buy a new HD player. See The Matrix on display and is shown all the features, that HD DVD can do this, this and this.

Then he is shown a Blu Ray using say Cars when it comes out, equally impressive to view, he is then shown what Blu Ray can do and is told what it WILL be able to do.

Now some J6P will plump for the blu with the view of buying for the future but will probably not be told that what he is buying is a 1.0 machine so wont be able to do what he has been told is coming from blu. However, I would think the larger amount of J6P's will go for the HD DVD players as it is the finished article now and cheaper than a Blu Ray player. Once HD DVD have a large enough base it will be around to stay.

I cant see any killer blow being dealt now to HD DVD and both will have to co-exist.
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Old 09-03-2007, 09:33 AM
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Long live consumer confusion...errr....the format war!!!
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Old 09-03-2007, 10:08 AM
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I didn't realize J6P was Irish, but anywho...

I'd like to believe you are right...but I don't quite see it play out as you describe.
You see Hd-dvd is ready now... there were problems with earlier player models (same with BD.)

The average consumer will be focused on Hi definition to match his tv. He isn't likely to want to spend the cheaper price now for the very reason its cheap when he just bought his expensive tv in the hopes that it is ready for the future. Let's not forget that people are updating tv's and all to future proof (to some degree.) So, I don't see how he will look at Hd & say this is ready now, it has some studio backing, there are some movies, it won't get any better. I'll take it! No, even if he were to get the Hd player compared to a Bd player, the salesmen will have to explain the difference: "This one (hd) is as good as it will get now. This one is good for another few years, but every company but that one (Toshiba) is making them... so this type will keep getting better. They've also started making pc drives & home videocameras for this one so you can even watch your home videos in Hi definition!!!"

...Do you really believe that the unfinished specs of first & second generation BD players will be the determining factor for the average consumer???

I like Hd dvd. I just can't believe in it to replace Dvd.

Last edited by Helo; 09-03-2007 at 10:15 AM. Reason: Accidental button press:)
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Old 09-03-2007, 10:14 AM
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Well the highest selling HDTV in the US I believe is a sub $800 TV.

The public will vote with their wallet (cheap) and with a machine that is the finished article now. As I said players bought over Christmas look like being 1.0 so what use are they when the more advanced features on titles become more commen.

I think people will opt for a sub $200 player than a sub $400 one in case they back the wrong horse. Blu may claim the war is over but the Paramount development is still fresh in peoples minds and they may not be so certain of Blu winning and may think they can live with a $200 HD DVD player now and if they lose Blu or Dual players should be at that price range so its an easy switch.
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Old 09-03-2007, 10:41 AM
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Well I just don't see how Blu Ray will have such a distinct future advantage. Their capacity is a moot point and so is the eventual progression to formats beyond 1080p.
No studio is actually in charge of changing standard broadcasting or displays protocols from and to TV's, that is the FCC's Job. Just look how long it has taken to get HD or DTV into the homes and it still isn't anywhere near its peak. The only way blu ray could be a format for the future is to plan for about 7 to 8 years down the road. Realistically by that time I ll be surprised if video is even still stored on disc and not some flash device, at the very least it wont be the formats we see today.

BDjava and HDi are both capable of doing the same thing both are programming languages for HD movie menus and features. Sony going with Java provides a huge learning curve as its tool set is, well, java! you have to make the programs to run the disc which is more programming than studios want. HDi is an already developed tool set that is quick and efficient to get most stuff done. Using java im sure gives more flexibility but thats only if HDi doesn't allow the creation of new tools as well which im sure it can.

I think the chief point to the consumer is when you go to buy either format and they are both identical in picture and audio (VC-1 & Dolby True HD) why pay more for one format over the other. All the movies come on one disc for both formats and for at least right now one format has really neat control features that don't take you out of the movie to see them.
Titles will make the big difference in the consumers mind and depending on cost. So it can be a toss up Transformers 2007 and Heroes season1 HD-DVD say versus Spider Man 3 and Lost Season1 Blu Ray

It seemed to me the reason most people go with expensive is often the higher cost is associated with better performance which is just not true in this case.
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Old 09-03-2007, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pimboli View Post
Im nutral but I can see that HD DVD will be around for a long time and we will be format nutral whether it be later rather than sooner.

Here is my reasoning.

HD DVD is the format for right now, it does was it is advertised to do, with regard to internet connectivity and interactive ability on titles which is not half bad as those who have used U-Control with agree, it is stable has decent enough studio backing and is cheap.

Blu Ray is as the BDA have stated the format for the future, which is also the problem right now, nor is it as cheap as HD DVD

If J6P goes into a store to buy a new HD player. See The Matrix on display and is shown all the features, that HD DVD can do this, this and this.

Then he is shown a Blu Ray using say Cars when it comes out, equally impressive to view, he is then shown what Blu Ray can do and is told what it WILL be able to do.

Now some J6P will plump for the blu with the view of buying for the future but will probably not be told that what he is buying is a 1.0 machine so wont be able to do what he has been told is coming from blu. However, I would think the larger amount of J6P's will go for the HD DVD players as it is the finished article now and cheaper than a Blu Ray player. Once HD DVD have a large enough base it will be around to stay.

I cant see any killer blow being dealt now to HD DVD and both will have to co-exist.
sorry your wrong, in the history of big business in the U.S. the consumer has rarely made the choice, big corps and retailers do, these deals like the one paramount and dreamworks both made are the ones that will determine what format wins. When enough of those deals have been done for one format a winner will be clear. Meaning, when retailers start taking a hard line on what format they will sell via a exclusivity deal, then consumers will see one format more than the other. When more studios go one format instead of the other, etc etc.
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Old 09-03-2007, 12:38 PM
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J6P isn't interested in either format right now and would not even spend the 200+ bucks for HDDVD or 400+ bucks for BD, since neither format has all the movies unlike DVD. Right now he's going for the 49.95 "HD" DVD player since it's got ALL the movies, it's cheap, and you can get movies for it for 3.99-12.99. PS3 effect is only significant because people care more about a game console more than a standalone player that is expensive and does not play all hd movies
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Old 09-03-2007, 07:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corduroygt View Post
J6P isn't interested in either format right now and would not even spend the 200+ bucks for HDDVD or 400+ bucks for BD, since neither format has all the movies unlike DVD. Right now he's going for the 49.95 "HD" DVD player since it's got ALL the movies, it's cheap, and you can get movies for it for 3.99-12.99. PS3 effect is only significant because people care more about a game console more than a standalone player that is expensive and does not play all hd movies
EXACTLY! So let's all stop peeing on fire hydrants and collectively figure out how to get the BDA and HD DVD groups together! <:-|
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Old 09-03-2007, 10:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pimboli View Post
...I cant see any killer blow being dealt now to HD DVD and both will have to co-exist.
Potential Death-Blows (based upon all other current conditions remaining the same, each one of these by themselves would potentially be a Death-Blow to the other)...

TO HD-DVD:
--Universal going neutral
--Warner going exclusively Blu
--Microsoft making a Blu-ray 360 add-on
--Target & WalMart removing all HD-DVD titles from shelves
--Best Buy discontinuing HD-DVD
ODDS OF THESE HAPPENING:
--Universal hesitated at CES 2007, & has been pressured to switch
--Warner recently lost it's Pro-HD-DVD exec
--MS not likely (unless HD-DVD starts clearly winning)
--Target has already squeezed HD-DVD shelf space in favor of Blu-ray
--More likely that they'd drop both formats


TO BLU-RAY:
--Warner going exclusively Red
--Fox or Disney going neutral
--Target & WalMart removing all Blu-ray titles from shelves
--Best Buy discontinuing Blu-ray
ODDS OF THESE HAPPENING:
--(see above) words from reps at IFA seem to keep them neutral in 2007
--Fox, Disney do not want to loose their IP. Blu-ray is more secure.
--(see above)
--(see above)


What I mean to illustrate here is that I think the situation is more precarious than some purport (both Red's & Blu's). I think doom is close at hand for either format if the right cards are played successively.


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"Death-Blow": "When someone hates you ... not for who you are; but for different reasons altogether."
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