Don't worry, I still give HD-DVD no chance - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:21 AM
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Default Don't worry, I still give HD-DVD no chance

I recently read somewhere that someone said that all the Blu-Ray fans talking about the imminent death of HD-DVD went away, so... just wanted to poke in and say hello.

Sure the news has been good for HD-DVD recently, and I think they have a much bigger shot than they did a few weeks ago, but... they are still behind.

If HD-DVD doesn't win in sales from this point to the end of the year, then ... well it'll be sad for HD-DVD

Sure Paramount switching is all well and good, but we haven't seen sales figures for anything yet. People on this board (HD-DVD folks anyway) seem to be completely writting Blu-Ray off which confuses me. I guess the fact that they get ANY good news is a new experience for them. Even with all the news I'd still say Blu-Ray currently (as in projected for the holidays) still has a considerable lead.

With an early adoption format the key is install base, you need people to take up your format. The 2:1 sales numbers seems to suggest that there's probably twice as many people supporting Blu-Ray as HD-DVD. It's possible the Blu crowd just buys more movies, but I think that's unlikely, and would probably even wager that it's the opposite. So what that means is that HD-DVD needs to get new players into more homes, to even catch up to Blu-Ray. The $200 play helps that cause, but it's still got to get out the door and see what the demand is at this point. The good news for HD is that with new player sales, they'll likely increase software sales dramatically (people buying several catalog titles with a new player).

I'm a Blu supporter and think that Blu is not only the superior format (and by think, mean it's clearly an irrefutable fact that long term, it's superior), but I also think it'll win out. It has enough of an edge now that HD-DVD won't catch up to it until Blu-Ray matches it on price and features, and when that happens, if HD doesn't have the lead in studio or software sales, it's game over for HD-DVD. Once the two formats are equal in every regard except 25gb layers vs 15gb layers, it's a no brainer for ever the most die hard of HD-DVD fans. Now if HD-DVD has more studio support or more sales at this point of equilibrium, then it has a shot. But I expect this to be reached, mostly, sometime into next year (maybe not identical in price, but close enough that it's not a huge factor, as it is now)
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:24 AM
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Thanks for the opinion based thread. There are practically no facts here. I think Hd is going to win...there...contradiction. Lets start the arguement.

No sales figures because the time is so short...you need to give it a month or two for the ball to get rolling.
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:25 AM
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Explain to me the reason why someone should go out and spend $499 on a ps3 (the cheapest Blu-Ray player by price) why you can get an HD-DVD player for more than half the cost and currently better features and just as good movies.
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:28 AM
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I think it's very obvious at this point that neither format is just gonna disappear overnight.

The longer this drags on, the more players on both side get sold.

I really don't see this ending any other way than complete studio neutrality or dual format players.
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:35 AM
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To the OP, try not to just remember the posts of HD DVD supporters that are saying that BD is now done. I think they are actually the minority. If anything there are more of them saying that it is good for HD DVD to have more support and with more affordable players it will now help them do a better job and have a better chance at winning. But it is a long road and it is just now being paved.
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:40 AM
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Ok I surrender if you say Blu will win based purely on your fanboy opinion. Im nutral so I can at least rant against both depending on what announcements they make.

Paramount shifting to HD DVD exlusive is not going to have an immediate impact as HD DVD supporters have already been buying their titles its not like if Fox or Disney flipped and they are all new titles available to HD DVD owners.

Lastly until the cheap HD DVD players hit the market and are selling for a few months the software sales wont change. There are more Blu Ray players on the market with the PS3 factor than HD DVD they cannot outsell Blu Ray until they getter more players sold.

The fact that Blu is only outselling Red by 2:1 despite having vastly more available players out there means it would take much of surge to change that but nothing can happen until the new players and titles are on the shelves.
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:41 AM
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Default No winner, no loser

It is virtually impossible for BD to win.

They've dug themselves in a deep whole where they can barely get players out the door that sell.

If it weren't for the PS3 the format would have died.

Profiles 1.0, 1.1, 2.0, BD-Live, BD+, BD-J, Disc Replication issues, programmers needed to release content.

The head guys at the BDA should all be fired and a new team should come in and focus on getting rid of the profiles, come up with a document on What A BD player is and should support (kind of like what HD DVD has done). Next, plan carefully how to get there.

Next, fully support HDi, make it part of the spec. BD-J shouldn't be the only tool available to content developers. That is a slam dunk, I cannot see why they don't do it. Warner would LOVE THEM TO BITS.
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Old 08-30-2007, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wentwj View Post
I recently read somewhere that someone said that all the Blu-Ray fans talking about the imminent death of HD-DVD went away, so... just wanted to poke in and say hello.

Sure the news has been good for HD-DVD recently, and I think they have a much bigger shot than they did a few weeks ago, but... they are still behind.

If HD-DVD doesn't win in sales from this point to the end of the year, then ... well it'll be sad for HD-DVD

Sure Paramount switching is all well and good, but we haven't seen sales figures for anything yet. People on this board (HD-DVD folks anyway) seem to be completely writting Blu-Ray off which confuses me. I guess the fact that they get ANY good news is a new experience for them. Even with all the news I'd still say Blu-Ray currently (as in projected for the holidays) still has a considerable lead.

With an early adoption format the key is install base, you need people to take up your format. The 2:1 sales numbers seems to suggest that there's probably twice as many people supporting Blu-Ray as HD-DVD. It's possible the Blu crowd just buys more movies, but I think that's unlikely, and would probably even wager that it's the opposite. So what that means is that HD-DVD needs to get new players into more homes, to even catch up to Blu-Ray. The $200 play helps that cause, but it's still got to get out the door and see what the demand is at this point. The good news for HD is that with new player sales, they'll likely increase software sales dramatically (people buying several catalog titles with a new player).

I'm a Blu supporter and think that Blu is not only the superior format (and by think, mean it's clearly an irrefutable fact that long term, it's superior), but I also think it'll win out. It has enough of an edge now that HD-DVD won't catch up to it until Blu-Ray matches it on price and features, and when that happens, if HD doesn't have the lead in studio or software sales, it's game over for HD-DVD. Once the two formats are equal in every regard except 25gb layers vs 15gb layers, it's a no brainer for ever the most die hard of HD-DVD fans. Now if HD-DVD has more studio support or more sales at this point of equilibrium, then it has a shot. But I expect this to be reached, mostly, sometime into next year (maybe not identical in price, but close enough that it's not a huge factor, as it is now)
I wasn't really worried at all about what a blu fanboy thinks...sorry
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Old 08-30-2007, 12:01 PM
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to the OP regarding HD DVD folks writing off Blu,

It is pretty interesting I agree. It seems that the post-Paramount Smackdown forum has a very similar vibe to the Pre-PS3 smackdown forum. In otherwords, the HD DVD hardcore followers have reverted back to their original ways in completely discrediting Blu-Ray. Granted, plenty of Blu-Ray loyalists have been doing the same for quite some time at HD DVD, but it's interesting to me how the Paramount deal seemed to reverse the mentality of the board so strongly.
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Old 08-30-2007, 12:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tranzparentl View Post
I think it's very obvious at this point that neither format is just gonna disappear overnight.

The longer this drags on, the more players on both side get sold.

I really don't see this ending any other way than complete studio neutrality or dual format players.
Unfortunately I see it ending with customer confussion resulting in lower than hoped sales and both formats staying a minor player........it could have been so much better.
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