Will HD DVD coexist with blu-ray? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:12 PM
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Default Will HD DVD coexist with blu-ray?

A while back, I started a thread asking when HD DVD would overtake blu-ray. After a lot of replies, it became apparent that, for all their hopes, HD DVD supporters didn't really have a good answer. No one gave a credible set of circumstances by which HD DVD could gain ground and catch BD.

Now, what about the easier option, co-existence? I've seen lots (too many) of posts around here claiming 'not bad for a dead format' or 'HD DVD is here to stay'. Bearing in mind that HD DVD has the minor share of the 1% of the market that HD represents and lesser studio support, what is it doing to safeguard it's continued existance?

So, the question is can HD DVD co-exist and what share of the HD market is enough to keep it around?

Note to posters: Any replies about dual format players better have a good rationale as why a price-conscious consumer would find a dual format player preferable to a HD DVD or BD standalone.

Last edited by Kid Banana; 07-29-2007 at 09:51 PM.
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kid Banana View Post
So, the question is can HD DVD co-exist and what share of the HD market is enough to keep it around?
.
Kid, you hit the nail on the head. The members of this forum will continually debate this very subject, so long as we all shall live.
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:21 PM
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For studios to release on both formats is highly unlikely. Also the order at which studios go neutral is very tight. Why would studios will go neutral when they think the format will win it. Remember somestudios are being told what they want to hear, for example universal is hearing cheaper players laptops and being spoon fed truths about hd-dvd from toshiba
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:26 PM
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Kid, you hit the nail on the head. The members of this forum will continually debate this very subject, so long as we all shall live.
But surely fans must have an idea of what market share will keep HD DVD around? 40%, 30%, 20%? Set your figure, format fans.
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:32 PM
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Dual format players have become the only reasonable conclusion HDDVD supporters can accept. Their talking point is now that "DVD is 99%". So lets pretend it is 2009 and assume the formats co-exist with dual format everywhere...

Fortunately for us, movie studios will remain competing for our dollars. So if you were a movie studio, which format would you pick? The one with more features and higher capacity? The one that gives better PQ and sound over the competition? For TV show releases... how about the format that can store the same content in 3 discs instead of 5?

The conclusion should be easy..
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:34 PM
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I think Toshiba would keep going even if they got as low as 20%, but I think that Universal will find it hard to justify the lost sales.

As soon as the formats make up about 5% of the disc market I think Universal will feel pressure to go neutral. I think we'll hit 5% within one year from now.
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:41 PM
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it will coexist the same way laserdisc coexisted with DVD. Only in movie geeks' basements...
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Kid Banana View Post
But surely fans must have an idea of what market share will keep HD DVD around? 40%, 30%, 20%? Set your figure, format fans.
Kid, I get the impression that some die-hard HD-DVD fanboys will never call it quits, even when the sales numbers are 95%-5%. Just my opinion, my British friend.
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:43 PM
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Universal won't long ignore 75% of the HD market....
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Old 07-29-2007, 09:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kid Banana View Post
So, the question is can HD DVD co-exist and what share of the HD market is enough to keep it around?
Maybe the bigger question is: why would we want it to? I want one format.

However, I will answer your question. I really believe that if Fox releases some good catolog titles and all BD studio release their summer blockbusters day and date this holiday, that HD-DVD simply won't be able to compete. The sales ratio will be dramatically Blu-ray heavy. Look for sales of 85-15 (and higher during some major releases like Spiderman 1,2,3, POTC3, Die Hard 4, etc) whether you like those movies or not, they are going to sell. If one of those things does not occur, HD-DVD has a fighting chance.

Here is the thing. IF HD-DVD can survive the holiday and Toshiba and Universal don't fold and remain dedicated through 08 - then the dual formats could begin to gain ground and eventually take over stand alones on both sides. (As new adopters buy them, and people with stand alones grow tired of the format war and "give in" so they can own all movies.

The holidays will be do or die for HD-DVD. We will see.

This is obviously just my opinion and speculation. But you can sense it everywhere, even on this website, the holidays are waiting like a judge and jury.
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