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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverado View Post
    Very civil. With the poll title explaining that members will be stating their opinions as to what Blu Ray will do for this year as per growth in sellthrough, kinda hard to pinpoint that this thread is stating Blu ray as a failure. Most here thought there would still be growth
    The lame excuse that someone is tired of the "blu ray is a failure" "not its not" banter, then at least warn of derailing conversation and leave it at that.
    Let us know what the reason is for closing the thread, I hope it is unintentional as Bruce suggested.
    I haven't heard any reason for it being closed so I'm not sure why it was closed. Can a mod open a thread that was close by accident? I can only assume that it was closed intentionally. Why? Don't know.
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  2. #32
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    I typically abstain from HD smackdown section but noticed the thread title.

    There wasn't any indication of why the thread was closed, so i opened it.
    I didn't receive any PM's from anyone on the matter so i can't apologize the delay.
    The "close thread" bug has struck me on several occasions in other sections, likely the cause.
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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Wendell, I think you forgot this is a format smack down section. HDDVD vs Bluray was THE debate here. So I think it's understandable why Bluray would be the main focus. Other failures are brought up like VOD and streaming. But those formats were never discussed during the format war. But they were never thought to be the successors to DVD now were they? I think you are trying too hard to protect your preferred format which is obviously Bluray. It also sounds like you are getting your feelings hurt by people mentioning Bluray as a failure in their opinions. That just reeks of a fanboy mentality. I supported HDDVD at first. But I quickly dumped it when Warner went Blu. And I never let the talk of HDDVD failing hurt my feelings. Plus after Toshiba lost, it was up to Bluray to dethrone DVD. And it can't do that. I guess you would rather nobody mention that uh?
    Exactly right Mal. Smackdown since the format war has basically become a forum for discussion of sales performance. Blu-ray gets the bulk of the attention because it is the only one with trackable HD sales (EST is both HD and SD).

    Nobody is trashing Blu-ray's performance on a technical level (except perhaps for slow loading times due to Java). Personally I'm very happy with Blu-ray and if the saying is true that actions speak louder than words, than I've spent over $8k on the format over the years. But then, a few BD fans here will think I really hate Blu-ray because I have a bearish attitude on its sales performance. It's just words, but I really like the format, and just call it like I see it.

    Also, Kosty is who generated so much discussion on BD sales and market share in the first place, and since his unfortunate departure, the discussion has lessened considerably. Personally my interest was inspired by Kosty, and that interest remains. It is not limited to Blu-ray, but to the home video entertainment arena as a whole.

    How long before DVD gets overtaken by Blu-ray (total revenue in a calender year)?

    How long before EST overtakes Blu-ray?

    How long before EST overtakes DVD + Blu-ray?

    When will Blu-ray peak and what will be the peak revenue?

    How long before studios decide Blu-ray doesn't need combo packs to sell?

    How well will UV do? Will it fail?

    Will 4K come out on Blu-ray disc? If so, when? If not, what format will it be?

    How will 3D BD fare in the coming years? Will it be just a passing fad?

    What about streaming? Will Netflix dominate the market? Or will it be totally fragmented and thus stifle its growth?

    Will streaming cannibalize more from cable or from OD in the future?

    When will Redbox peak?

    How will studios tweak release windows to stimulate digital sales?

    How will EST be priced in the future compared to OD?

    What about retailer exclusives in the future, and deluxe packaging to encourage collecting, like digibooks and steelbooks?

    These are just some of the questions that come to my mind, and the discussion possibilities are endless. Developments happen all the time that alter the parameters so that we're not just rehashing the same old stuff, we're using the latest news to gain a new perspective.

    So if any of you think it's still about feelings left over from the format war, then that's a really rather narrow-minded and quaint point of view.
    Last edited by bruceames; 02-15-2013 at 07:29 PM.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by michealo View Post
    The "close thread" bug has struck me on several occasions in other sections, likely the cause.
    That's what I figured. There was nothing out of line in the thread, and if it were closed on purpose, then a reason would have been stated in a closing post. Guess one of us should have reported it closed, huh?

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by michealo View Post
    I typically abstain from HD smackdown section but noticed the thread title.

    There wasn't any indication of why the thread was closed, so i opened it.
    I didn't receive any PM's from anyone on the matter so i can't apologize the delay.
    The "close thread" bug has struck me on several occasions in other sections, likely the cause.
    Ty for reopening it. I didnt send a pm because I didnt think it would have helped to be honest.
    Thanks for proving me wrong .
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  6. #36
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    Hehe. To me its like the fans of a team leaving the game during halftime when thier team is losing. And then saying they didnt care about the game anyway and why is everyone making such a big deal about it! I think of that everytime someone says to close smackdown or complains about anyone mentioning Blurays failures. Its like once they realized the numbers weren't going to get any better they didnt want to talk about it anymore. Guess I should have quit the discussion when hddvd lost?

    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Exactly right Mal. Smackdown since the format war has basically become a forum for discussion of sales performance. Blu-ray gets the bulk of the attention because it is the only one with trackable HD sales (EST is both HD and SD).

    Nobody is trashing Blu-ray's performance on a technical level (except perhaps for slow loading times due to Java). Personally I'm very happy with Blu-ray and if the saying is true that actions speak louder than words, than I've spent over $8k on the format over the years. But then, a few BD fans here will think I really hate Blu-ray because I have a bearish attitude on its sales performance. It's just words, but I really like the format, and just call it like I see it.

    Also, Kosty is who generated so much discussion on BD sales and market share in the first place, and since his unfortunate departure, the discussion has lessened considerably. Personally my interest was inspired by Kosty, and that interest remains. It is not limited to Blu-ray, but to the home video entertainment arena as a whole.

    How long before DVD gets overtaken by Blu-ray (total revenue in a calender year)?

    How long before EST overtakes Blu-ray?

    How long before EST overtakes DVD + Blu-ray?

    When will Blu-ray peak and what will be the peak revenue?

    How long before studios decide Blu-ray doesn't need combo packs to sell?

    How well will UV do? Will it fail?

    Will 4K come out on Blu-ray disc? If so, when? If not, what format will it be?

    How will 3D BD fare in the coming years? Will it be just a passing fad?

    What about streaming? Will Netflix dominate the market? Or will it be totally fragmented and thus stifle its growth?

    Will streaming cannibalize more from cable or from OD in the future?

    When will Redbox peak?

    How will studios tweak release windows to stimulate digital sales?

    How will EST be priced in the future compared to OD?

    What about retailer exclusives in the future, and deluxe packaging to encourage collecting, like digibooks and steelbooks?

    These are just some of the questions that come to my mind, and the discussion possibilities are endless. Developments happen all the time that alter the parameters so that we're not just rehashing the same old stuff, we're using the latest news to gain a new perspective.

    So if any of you think it's still about feelings left over from the format war, then that's a really rather narrow-minded and quaint point of view.
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  7. #37
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    http://history1900s.about.com/od/wor...diersurr_2.htm

    I think no one really cares man. Most everyone like I said before already know what to expect with blu-ray's trajectory. This isn't halftime. The game is over period. Most would say blu-ray being developped and supported for what appears to be well over 10 years would be the winner of the "game". Sure, it didn't blow the "opponent" out of the water. I use the word opponent loosely because I'm not sure who or what this opponent is? Other than sales in general? HD DVD? lol?

    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Hehe. To me its like the fans of a team leaving the game during halftime when thier team is losing. And then saying they didnt care about the game anyway and why is everyone making such a big deal about it! I think of that everytime someone says to close smackdown or complains about anyone mentioning Blurays failures. Its like once they realized the numbers weren't going to get any better they didnt want to talk about it anymore. Guess I should have quit the discussion when hddvd lost?
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    http://history1900s.about.com/od/wor...diersurr_2.htm

    I think no one really cares man. Most everyone like I said before already know what to expect with blu-ray's trajectory. This isn't halftime. The game is over period. Most would say blu-ray being developped and supported for what appears to be well over 10 years would be the winner of the "game". Sure, it didn't blow the "opponent" out of the water. I use the word opponent loosely because I'm not sure who or what this opponent is? Other than sales in general? HD DVD? lol?
    I always saw DVD as the real opponent. HDDVD vs Bluray was just the play off game. The winner of that still had to become the successor to DVD and continue that cash cow to be a success IMHO. I don't mean it had to do exactly what DVD did. But at least make a good run at it! Under 3 billion in sell through when compared to DVDs peak of 20+ is not a good run at it. Bluray didn't even make a good showing against VHS. At least it beat Laserdisc I guess.
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  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    I always saw DVD as the real opponent. HDDVD vs Bluray was just the play off game. The winner of that still had to become the successor to DVD and continue that cash cow to be a success IMHO. I don't mean it had to do exactly what DVD did. But at least make a good run at it! Under 3 billion in sell through when compared to DVDs peak of 20+ is not a good run at it. Bluray didn't even make a good showing against VHS. At least it beat Laserdisc I guess.
    Uh, maybe to you just to keep up the "good fight" but most of everyone 2-3 years realized that DVD was never a possibility. It's a nice reference to look at and probably the gold standard in regards to best performing format, but to stay it's the direct opponent to blu-ray is called "setting up a failure."

    Of course, I understand that really, the only thing left to really compare BD is DVD because we have good and accessible data, but BR can be compared to laser disc and vhs as well.

    So I understand you have some "personal" view on it, that BD should have performed as well as DVD, but we all have realized that wasn't going to happen for a couple years now.

    Like I said, the game is over. You're kinda like that one left guy on the box on a corner intersection who has a big sign that says "the end is nigh 12-22-2012" and you're interesting to look at occasional and draw eyes, but 12/22/2012 passed and we all have moved on.

    The recurrent jabs at blu-ray is like stabbing a piece of dead meat over and over again. "HA HA, take that blu-ray, you're sales are a dismal 28% in year 7!!!"

    I think this is what HD DVD supported felt what BD people kept on poking them and saying "you lost, hahaha." In the end, you still have your hardware and discs and they still work and you still enjoy them at HD levels.

    Everyone else is at a point that the sales don't really matter anymore, it's a mature format that's successful enough to maintain market presence for a long time.

    A lot of us had expected digital to take over around 2015-2020 anyways. Was this the format to skip that some people have decidedly done? I'd argue to say most would say no.

    I think lastly most importantly and I think this is what wendell was touching upon. We all know everyone's opinion on blu-ray. At this point of the game, are we going to be any different? Doubtful.

    I enjoy discussion many of the questions that bruce brought up and I think they are all relevant but I also don't think you need a smackdown environment to have good academic discussion and debate. Nothing I see will be as fast and furious as BD vs HDDVD in it's hayday.
    Last edited by Sbert; 02-16-2013 at 10:12 PM.
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  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert
    The recurrent jabs at blu-ray is like stabbing a piece of dead meat over and over again. "HA HA, take that blu-ray, you're sales are a dismal 28% in year 7!!!"
    I'm the one who stated that and that's an interesting take on it. I wouldn't call Blu-ray dead meat just yet.
    28% ain't nothing to brag about, but hey it's still better than laser disc.

  11. #41
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    Sbert, you do know that this debate and my views have been argued against here just in the last year right? Why do you think I still post about these things? It's not like I don't get any responses. You are trying to make it seem that I'm all by myself in this argument. The truth is I wouldn't be here if there were not still people out there that disagree with my assessment. Maybe you don't. But there are still those like cakefoo and ack that do. I knew Bluray was not going to take over dvd years ago. These guys disagreed with me. There are others as well. Most of them have disappeared though and I suspect the remaining few will slowly fade into the shadows never to be seen again. Come to think of it I can't remember you ever saying Bluray will never do what DVD did until now. Correct me if I'm wrong. I think you've changed your position more recently than 3 years ago. Oh and yes, I'm rubbing it in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    Uh, maybe to you just to keep up the "good fight" but most of everyone 2-3 years realized that DVD was never a possibility. It's a nice reference to look at and probably the gold standard in regards to best performing format, but to stay it's the direct opponent to blu-ray is called "setting up a failure."

    Of course, I understand that really, the only thing left to really compare BD is DVD because we have good and accessible data, but BR can be compared to laser disc and vhs as well.

    So I understand you have some "personal" view on it, that BD should have performed as well as DVD, but we all have realized that wasn't going to happen for a couple years now.

    Like I said, the game is over. You're kinda like that one left guy on the box on a corner intersection who has a big sign that says "the end is nigh 12-22-2012" and you're interesting to look at occasional and draw eyes, but 12/22/2012 passed and we all have moved on.

    The recurrent jabs at blu-ray is like stabbing a piece of dead meat over and over again. "HA HA, take that blu-ray, you're sales are a dismal 28% in year 7!!!"

    I think this is what HD DVD supported felt what BD people kept on poking them and saying "you lost, hahaha." In the end, you still have your hardware and discs and they still work and you still enjoy them at HD levels.

    Everyone else is at a point that the sales don't really matter anymore, it's a mature format that's successful enough to maintain market presence for a long time.

    A lot of us had expected digital to take over around 2015-2020 anyways. Was this the format to skip that some people have decidedly done? I'd argue to say most would say no.

    I think lastly most importantly and I think this is what wendell was touching upon. We all know everyone's opinion on blu-ray. At this point of the game, are we going to be any different? Doubtful.

    I enjoy discussion many of the questions that bruce brought up and I think they are all relevant but I also don't think you need a smackdown environment to have good academic discussion and debate. Nothing I see will be as fast and furious as BD vs HDDVD in it's hayday.
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  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    I'm the one who stated that and that's an interesting take on it. I wouldn't call Blu-ray dead meat just yet.
    28% ain't nothing to brag about, but hey it's still better than laser disc.
    I still sense a bit of bitterness in his posts. Maybe it's just me? But obviously Sbert doesn't like hears that 28% fact mentioned. Atleast thats the way it seems. I'd be lying if I said there wasn't any rubbing in smackdown style in my bringing up these facts.
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  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    I still sense a bit of bitterness in his posts. Maybe it's just me? But obviously Sbert doesn't like hears that 28% fact mentioned. Atleast thats the way it seems. I'd be lying if I said there wasn't any rubbing in smackdown style in my bringing up these facts.
    Well he didn't seem all too happy about it. Sorry, but the market share metric is important and bears repeating. Kosty wasn't immune to repeating things and those guys never complained about it to him. I wonder why?

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Sbert, you do know that this debate and my views have been argued against here just in the last year right? Why do you think I still post about these things? It's not like I don't get any responses. You are trying to make it seem that I'm all by myself in this argument. The truth is I wouldn't be here if there were not still people out there that disagree with my assessment. Maybe you don't. But there are still those like cakefoo and ack that do. I knew Bluray was not going to take over dvd years ago. These guys disagreed with me. There are others as well. Most of them have disappeared though and I suspect the remaining few will slowly fade into the shadows never to be seen again. Come to think of it I can't remember you ever saying Bluray will never do what DVD did until now. Correct me if I'm wrong. I think you've changed your position more recently than 3 years ago. Oh and yes, I'm rubbing it in.
    Fair enough. I'll stop busting balls. LOL. I thought Blu-ray would have a better trajectory personally, but I've been pretty much floored by how bad our economy has gotten.

    My personal hypothesis about home media is that it isn't recession/economy proof. It might be resistant but definitely affected by economy. However, watching movies at movie theaters isn't much more recession proof/economy proof / resistant as it is one of the most popular ways to be entertained outside of the house for families, dates, etc.

    My position has always been that blu-ray has been performing par for the course under the circumstances. I actually thought that blu-ray was possibly going to go under before Heath ledgers untimely death made batman sell so well. Until then, I thought BD might have gone the way of the do-do bird.

    The economy no matter how you slice it, affects the whole chain in regards to development of resources to make BD's, make BD players, etc. With better economy more companies, more competition more development cheaper prices, economies of scale develop faster, consumers buy more, cheaper components, etc etc.
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  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Well he didn't seem all too happy about it. Sorry, but the market share metric is important and bears repeating. Kosty wasn't immune to repeating things and those guys never complained about it to him. I wonder why?
    I actually don't find the 28% percent number all too worrisome. I had thought we would be hitting 30% in Q4 of 2012, so it's not that far off.

    It's really the framing that you or mal put on it. How you access it and your interpretation of what it means. I find it acceptable under the circumstances. I wouldn't necessarily call it anemic.

    Again, this is where it's a matter of opinion. I can't change how you or mal view the sales metrics. I find them about where I thought it would be. I am off by 2% I guess, lol.

    Granted I didn't follow the sales at all Q4, so I don't know for sure if it was less than 30% or not, I assume so though. Usually DVD tends to sell better that BD during holidays in all prior years so marketshare in Q4 is lower.
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