View Poll Results: What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?

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  • 15% or more! Bluray is going to take off and have a second wind!

    2 9.52%
  • 10% to 14%

    4 19.05%
  • 5% to 9% about the same as 2012

    4 19.05%
  • 1% to 4%

    9 42.86%
  • Flat. No growth.

    0 0%
  • Negative. Bluray will make less in 2013 than in 2012

    2 9.52%
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  1. #1
    Malanthius's Avatar
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    Default What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?

    It's a new year. What does everyone think Bluray will do for 2013? We are talking sell through growth here.
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  2. #2
    Malanthius's Avatar
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    I voted Negative. Although I wouldn't be shocked if there was slight growth of under 4% or flat. I just think the move away from physical media is probably only going to speed up with mainstream consumers. That's why I chose Negative. This is a public poll so don't be scared to tell everyone what you really think. There will be no hiding behind a private poll with this one. Well I guess you could hide by not participating in it.
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  3. #3
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    I'll be an optimist and predict it will see 1-4 percent growth this year. Blu-ray offers a distinct advantage over DVD in being able to offer a much higher value proposition (multiple versions of a popular new release movie in a single BD SKU + exclusive extras + occasional deluxe packaging for just a few bucks more) and studios will continue to exploit that by widening the value gap even more by having more DVD releases be bare bones and by giving it a later release window on select titles (that typically sell over 65% on BD in week 1).

    So the well from siphoning sales off the new release DVD SKU has not run dry yet, but we're starting to get close to diminishing returns. On the other hand, prospects for catalog do not look so great, but fortunately for Blu-ray, most of their sales revenue is from new release anyway (I would guess about 70%).

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    I'll be an optimist and predict it will see 1-4 percent growth this year. Blu-ray offers a distinct advantage over DVD in being able to offer a much higher value proposition (multiple versions of a popular new release movie in a single BD SKU + exclusive extras + occasional deluxe packaging for just a few bucks more) and studios will continue to exploit that by widening the value gap even more by having more DVD releases be bare bones and by giving it a later release window on select titles (that typically sell over 65% on BD in week 1).

    So the well from siphoning sales off the new release DVD SKU has not run dry yet, but we're starting to get close to diminishing returns. On the other hand, prospects for catalog do not look so great, but fortunately for Blu-ray, most of their sales revenue is from new release anyway (I would guess about 70%).
    Hi Bruce, I was close to guessing like yourself. But I also took into consideration that there are not many catalog titles to release anymore. None that would do any big numbers for Bluray. So much of the money in sell through is going to be from new releases. I know thats where it gets most of it's money anyway. But still, Bluray doesn't have anymore big catalog titles to release. Star Wars, Indy, all the big ones are out. And still Bluray has made very small numbers compared to DVD when DVD was at this point. I just think it's pretty much done. Not done in the sense that it is going away. I just think it will be around for awhile but not making the studios any serious cash like they were used to. But what else do they have really? It's sad really. They are not even really getting much of a premium over the dvd releases.
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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Hi Bruce, I was close to guessing like yourself. But I also took into consideration that there are not many catalog titles to release anymore. None that would do any big numbers for Bluray. So much of the money in sell through is going to be from new releases. I know thats where it gets most of it's money anyway. But still, Bluray doesn't have anymore big catalog titles to release. Star Wars, Indy, all the big ones are out. And still Bluray has made very small numbers compared to DVD when DVD was at this point. I just think it's pretty much done. Not done in the sense that it is going away. I just think it will be around for awhile but not making the studios any serious cash like they were used to. But what else do they have really? It's sad really. They are not even really getting much of a premium over the dvd releases.
    I can't see catalog being up this year, but since catalog has historically been such a small part of the BD revenue pie (perhaps 25% or so), maybe it will be offset by gains in new release sales. I think everyone has notice how much BD catalog (and TV) prices have fallen in the last year (and the format as whole), which definitely was a major reason why YoY catalog revenue was up 24% last year. A repeat of that this year will help, but there's only so much it can go down before the extra units sold don't compensate for the lost revenue from cheaper prices.

    I think it's pretty obvious that DVD isn't going away, and that has surprised a lot of people. Blu-ray sales have been disappointing, but at the same time, DVD sales haven't fallen as fast as they would have, had Blu-ray grown at the pace it was expected to. So basically we really have only one format, OD, now 7 years in decline, which is still waiting for the next format to replace it. I think of Blu-ray as an HD patch for DVD. Many people just don't need this patch, or don't want to pay extra for it. They expected consumers to jump on Blu-ray like they did for HDTV, but HDTV was popular for its form factor and DVD upscaling generally suffices for most people, since they don't watch as close in as us video geeks.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    I can't see catalog being up this year, but since catalog has historically been such a small part of the BD revenue pie (perhaps 25% or so), maybe it will be offset by gains in new release sales. I think everyone has notice how much BD catalog (and TV) prices have fallen in the last year (and the format as whole), which definitely was a major reason why YoY catalog revenue was up 24% last year. A repeat of that this year will help, but there's only so much it can go down before the extra units sold don't compensate for the lost revenue from cheaper prices.

    I think it's pretty obvious that DVD isn't going away, and that has surprised a lot of people. Blu-ray sales have been disappointing, but at the same time, DVD sales haven't fallen as fast as they would have, had Blu-ray grown at the pace it was expected to. So basically we really have only one format, OD, now 7 years in decline, which is still waiting for the next format to replace it. I think of Blu-ray as an HD patch for DVD. Many people just don't need this patch, or don't want to pay extra for it. They expected consumers to jump on Blu-ray like they did for HDTV, but HDTV was popular for its form factor and DVD upscaling generally suffices for most people, since they don't watch as close in as us video geeks.
    That's exactly how I see it! That's why in the past i've said. It's like we all got a free upgrade. With the movies at least. Yes you had to buy a new player. But for many who had to buy one to replace a broken dvd player? You can already get a nice upscale player with streaming for just a little more than a decent dvd player. That will also play the new Bluray releases that are just about the same price as a DVD you were paying for! So I really see it as a patch/free upgrade.

    BTW, notice the views and not very many votes here?
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    That's exactly how I see it! That's why in the past i've said. It's like we all got a free upgrade. With the movies at least. Yes you had to buy a new player. But for many who had to buy one to replace a broken dvd player? You can already get a nice upscale player with streaming for just a little more than a decent dvd player. That will also play the new Bluray releases that are just about the same price as a DVD you were paying for! So I really see it as a patch/free upgrade.

    BTW, notice the views and not very many votes here?
    I think more people upgrade their DVD players (if it ain't broke yet) to get streaming than they do for Blu-ray. Although smart TVs are offering streaming built in, at least they don't have to replace their TV and a cheap BD/DVD/streaming player can be found for under $70 these days.

    I finally have my Oppo connected to streaming and although I wouldn't watch it in my living setup because the PQ downgrade is too distracting, in the bedroom I'm fine with it (14' away on a 50" display). Heck, even youtube looks OK in my bedroom. My Oppo is a very special player though because it will play isos off the hard drive (and I can have up to three 2TB drives connected at the same time). With that feature, I think it tops the PS3 as the greatest value in CE history.

    Yeah, noticed that the votes:views ratio is pretty low.

  8. #8
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    I believe that 4% is optimistic, but let's shoot for the stars. 4% is my guess.

  9. #9
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    I have no idea, therefore I won't vote.

    You can stream unlimited movies and TV shows for a quarter of the year for the same price you'd pay for one Blu-ray disc. That's why streaming is so popular.

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    Without knowing what titles are on tap to be release this year (or any year), the appeal and cost of those titles how can you even attempt a educated guess as to the total sales for the year?

    As to YoY %, as the total unit sales numbers increase in sales why do you folks expect to see very much of an increase in terms of “percentage”? Going from 1 million to 2 million (100% growth in unit sales) can be relatively easy. Going from 250 million to 270 million (8% growth in unit sales) may prove to be very difficult. The average cost for older BD titles continues to decline so the unit sales could be up but the revenue could be down. Last time I checked Amazon had > 1300 BD titles for ≤ $10.00

    My prediction: Skyfall and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will do quite well.

    There is no big mystery about DVD and Blu-ray sales. If there are titles made available that folks want and at a price they are willing to pay then sales do quite well, if not then sales do poorly.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wendell R Breland View Post
    Without knowing what titles are on tap to be release this year (or any year), the appeal and cost of those titles how can you even attempt a educated guess as to the total sales for the year?
    By seeing where Blu-ray has been and where it's going, via the growth curve. The selling power or appeal of titles released on Blu-ray are, on average, directly proportional to how well it did in theaters, and total box office in any given year doesn't vary by more than 5-10 percent or so. Last year it was up about 2 percent, the year before down around 8 percent.

    Here is where Blu-ray is going.

    Launches aligned. Year 1 is 1997 for DVD and 2006 for Blu-ray. Year 7 is 2003 for DVD and 2012 for Blu-ray. Revenue is in billions.


    As to YoY %, as the total unit sales numbers increase in sales why do you folks expect to see very much of an increase in terms of “percentage”? Going from 1 million to 2 million (100% growth in unit sales) can be relatively easy. Going from 250 million to 270 million (8% growth in unit sales) may prove to be very difficult. The average cost for older BD titles continues to decline so the unit sales could be up but the revenue could be down. Last time I checked Amazon had > 1300 BD titles for ≤ $10.00
    Who is expecting much an increase in the YoY? Certainly not anyone who has voted in the poll. DVD grew by 45% in it's "2013" year, but Blu-ray is not DVD and never really took off to begin with. Heck, even VHS had over double sell-through sales ($5.3 billion at its peak in 1996) revenue than does Blu-ray. So it looks like everyone's expectations have been tempered drastically. No one by now thinks BLu-ray will ever amount to much.

    The average price for Blu-ray was down around 8 percent last year and DVD a little less. With lower prices you sell more units to sometimes get more revenue, sometimes not. The consumer will ultimately dictate the price, unless studios decide to limit quantities or do what Disney does and keep their catalogs OOP for several years before coming out with a reissue. It looks like no studio is willing to throttle the supply side to achieve higher prices though.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    I have no idea, therefore I won't vote.

    You can stream unlimited movies and TV shows for a quarter of the year for the same price you'd pay for one Blu-ray disc. That's why streaming is so popular.
    I'm shocked!!



    Not...
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wendell R Breland View Post
    Without knowing what titles are on tap to be release this year (or any year), the appeal and cost of those titles how can you even attempt a educated guess as to the total sales for the year?

    As to YoY %, as the total unit sales numbers increase in sales why do you folks expect to see very much of an increase in terms of “percentage”? Going from 1 million to 2 million (100% growth in unit sales) can be relatively easy. Going from 250 million to 270 million (8% growth in unit sales) may prove to be very difficult. The average cost for older BD titles continues to decline so the unit sales could be up but the revenue could be down. Last time I checked Amazon had > 1300 BD titles for ≤ $10.00

    My prediction: Skyfall and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will do quite well.

    There is no big mystery about DVD and Blu-ray sales. If there are titles made available that folks want and at a price they are willing to pay then sales do quite well, if not then sales do poorly.
    Wendell, It's just a fun thing we have been doing here for awhile. I base my vote on past performance and how I feel Bluray has been doing in sales. I nailed it for 2012. Maybe it was a lucky guess? Maybe I have a good feel for the market because of the great job from guys like Kosty and Bruce and reading various reports. It's not to be taken too seriously. A few guys don't like voting because they just don't want to be wrong for some reason.
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverado View Post
    I believe that 4% is optimistic, but let's shoot for the stars. 4% is my guess.
    I think your vote is a smart vote. I was tempted to vote like yourself. One of my rules was to just half the percentage because thats kinda been the norm for Bluray. But I have a feeling it may drop off quicker this year as streaming becomes more mainstream for consumers and catalog has dried up. Add in the continuing price drops on Bluray movies and 2013 just might be a negative year for Bluray sell through.
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  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    I'm shocked!!



    Not...
    Why are you shocked?

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