Did Hollywood’s Home Viewing Revenue Fall Further Than First Thought? - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 01-13-2012, 10:20 PM
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Arrow Did Hollywood’s Home Viewing Revenue Fall Further Than First Thought?

Did Hollywood’s Home Viewing Revenue Fall Further Than First Thought?

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By MICHAEL CIEPLY
8:22 p.m. | Updated LOS ANGELES — In a report issued on Friday, the analysts at Nomura Equity Research take issue with an only somewhat downbeat assessment from the Digital Entertainment Group, an industry alliance, of United States home entertainment revenue in 2011.

Briefly put, Michael Nathanson, Robert Fishman and Andrew Izaguirre of Nomura think things were more downbeat than they looked.

As reported by the D.E.G., industrywide revenue from movies and television shows in home viewing formats fell 2.1 percent, to $18 billion from $18.4 billion, last year — a decided improvement from the 5 percent decline of the previous year and the persistent declines in the years before that. The numbers were helped by a 20.2 percent increase in Blu-ray disc sales, to $2.2 billion from $1.8 billion in 2010, and a tidy increase in video-on-demand sales, to $1.9 billion from $1.8 billion.

But the Nomura researchers spot a problem with another major component in seemingly improving numbers — that is, the estimated 484.5 percent increase in subscription streaming rentals from services like Netflix and Hulu Plus, to $1 billion from an estimated 0.2 billion a year ago (when the industry did not break out exact numbers).

Nomura’s point: The subscription streaming of movies and television episodes really doesn’t constitute home video revenue and should be accounted for in comparison to cable or syndication sales to services like HBO, Showtime or others in years past. In other words, they see the industry moving dollars out of a reporting column that once belonged to cable television and into a column that traditionally belonged to DVDs and such.

Nomura’s conclusion is that home video revenue really fell about 6.6 percent last year. And, the analysts predict, it will keep on falling, until it hits a projected $14.65 billion in 2014, down about 20 percent from last year.
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.co...first-thought/
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Old 01-13-2012, 11:51 PM
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Sounds like a few of you D&Grs figured this out before it hit the news. Hats off to you guys. Is anyone suprised by these tactics from organizations that "promote" home entertainment?
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Old 01-14-2012, 12:48 AM
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So let me get this straight.

2010 doom and gloomers claim the deg is overstating OD revenue cause it included netflix streaming subscriptions.
2011 it turns out SVOD wasnt included at all in the 2010 report.

And now.. people are mad that they are including it?
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Old 01-14-2012, 02:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Elee s View Post
So let me get this straight.

2010 doom and gloomers claim the deg is overstating OD revenue cause it included netflix streaming subscriptions.
2011 it turns out SVOD wasnt included at all in the 2010 report.

And now.. people are mad that they are including it?
It doesn't give an accurate picture of the total revenue earned in 2011 for the home video market. The HVM has always been tallyed by rentals and purchases. SVOD is neither.

BTW - it has nothing to do with whether you are a Doom And Gloomer or one of the True Blue Crew - this has absolutely nothing to do with BD so you can stop trolling now.
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Old 01-14-2012, 09:44 AM
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I see this as being no different than NPD including hardware and accessories In the total for video gaming sales
Quote:
An underperforming December month in sales of new video games and consoles contributed to an estimated 9% drop to $17.02 billion in overall 2011 consumer spending, according to new data from The NPD Group.
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The tally, which includes new hardware, physical video and PC games, digital full-game downloads, social network games, downloadable content, mobile games, and accessories, reached nearly $18.6 billion in 2010.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/vid...clines-9-26131

Note to these firms... Give us actual numbers not hogwash "include everything but the kitchen sink" year end totals!
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Old 01-14-2012, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
It doesn't give an accurate picture of the total revenue earned in 2011 for the home video market. The HVM has always been tallyed by rentals and purchases. SVOD is neither.

BTW - it has nothing to do with whether you are a Doom And Gloomer or one of the True Blue Crew - this has absolutely nothing to do with BD so you can stop trolling now.
So youre saying Netflix subscriptions werent included at all last year? and they shouldnt be?

And if youre gonna cry then cry to the first person that replied.
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Old 01-14-2012, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elee s View Post
So youre saying Netflix subscriptions werent included at all last year? and they shouldnt be?
Correct

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And if youre gonna cry then cry to the first person that replied.
Not going to stop trolling huh?
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Old 01-15-2012, 02:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
Correct
And like I said doom and gloomers(psound specifically) spent most of last year crying foul that netflix subscriptions were included in OD rental revenue.
So now it turns out it never was, and now theyre crying that its being included at all.

Just pointing out the hilarious backpedaling.

Is there a reason why its just NOW people feel that netflix shouldnt be part of home video?
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Old 01-15-2012, 05:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Elee s View Post
Is there a reason why its just NOW people feel that netflix shouldnt be part of home video?
Netflix OD rentals should . . . but not SVOD revenue

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 01-15-2012 at 05:57 AM.
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Old 01-15-2012, 09:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
Netflix OD rentals should . . . but not SVOD revenue
Aren't they the same thing... I mean one is just a quicker delivery method than the other. I don't see how the OD makes a difference when they both deliver content on demand and with a subscription.
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