What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 12/24/11? Dolphin Tale/Christmas - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat 12/24/11? Dolphin Tale (Christmas)
$130.00 million or above 0 0%
$120.00 -129.99 million 0 0%
$110.00 -119.99 million 0 0%
$100.00 -109.99 million 0 0%
$90.00 - 99.99 million 1 33.33%
$80.00 - 89.00 million 0 0%
$70.00 - 79.99 million 1 33.33%
$60.00 69.99 million 0 0%
$50.00 59.99 million 0 0%
$49.99 million or below 1 33.33%
Voters: 3. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 01-02-2012, 04:03 AM
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Default What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 12/24/11? Dolphin Tale/Christmas

Christmas Week Sales

Leading title Dolphin Tales ($64 M) and leading Blu-ray genre title Colombiana ($36 M) have relatively poor box office performance and strength. The release strength last week ending 12/17/11 and 12/24/11 had almost twice the box office power in the matching 2010 week the year before. $640 M vs $340 M last week and $156 M vs $303 M TBO this week and that seems to be affecting these holiday sales weeks more than I anticipated.

Almost forgot to post this poll. Sorry for it being late but we probably well no get the data anyway for a couple weeks. So take a guess anyway.

Code:
WE 12/17/11  (99.00 M BD 2010)	
HOLIDAY SALES

175.6	12/13/11	Rise of the Planet of the Apes
165.2	12/13/11	Kung Fu Panda 2
340.8

247.5	12/14/10	Despicable Me
118.5	12/14/10	Other Guys, The
 77.2	12/14/10	A-Team, The
 28.8	12/14/10	Nanny McPhee Returns
 91.7	12/17/10	Town, The
 54.8	12/17/10	Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole 
618.5




Code:
WE 12/24/11	(109.27 M BD 2010)
CHRISTMAS WEEK

 64.4	12/20/11	Dolphin Tale
 55.3	12/20/11	Midnight in Paris
 36.5	12/20/11	Colombiana
156.2	

118.2	12/21/10	Salt
 57.2	12/21/10	Easy A
 52.2	12/21/10	Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
 42.4	12/21/10	Step UP 3
 33.6	12/21/10	Devil
303.6
Code:
WE 12/31/11	(51.24 M BD 2010)   	 

 42.6	12/27/11	Final Destination 5
 42.6

 60.1	12/28/10	Resident Evil: Afterlife
 35.6	12/28/10	American, The
 95.7

Last edited by Kosty; 01-02-2012 at 04:13 AM.
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  #2  
Old 01-02-2012, 04:18 AM
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Based on the early data we are seeing it for the week before it will be a fight to get to $90 M.

I think even that might be optimistic because of the reported week performance of Kung Fu Panda 2 the week before and this weeks and last weeks TBO disparity in favor of 2010 looks pretty substantial.
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  #3  
Old 01-03-2012, 08:42 PM
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Based on the impact of the release strength on the 12/17/11 week data and that only getting to $89 M the TBO disparity here this week as well as the 2nd week of last week will make it even tougher to get to $90 M this week.

If I had to guess at this week, based on the historical trend of this Christmas week being a bit less than the preceding week, I'll say it will be tough to even get to $80 M.
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Old 01-03-2012, 09:48 PM
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Well then looks like we are not going to even hit that low 20% YOY mark if you are right. Which I think you will be if you are guessing the 70-79 million range. Sounds about right. That's a big drop from last year. Looks like 2012 could be flat or very close to it. I'd say there's even a possibility of being negative next year as more and more consumers move to VOD and rental. And stick with their dvds for catalog.
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Old 01-03-2012, 10:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Well then looks like we are not going to even hit that low 20% YOY mark if you are right. Which I think you will be if you are guessing the 70-79 million range. Sounds about right. That's a big drop from last year. Looks like 2012 could be flat or very close to it. I'd say there's even a possibility of being negative next year as more and more consumers move to VOD and rental. And stick with their dvds for catalog.
What is your guess again for next week ending 12/24/11?

Even with this week being below last year's that certainly looks like it was on the strength of the new releases from last year dominating the new releases from this week. Its been the same all year long. In the 1Q the Twilight movie affected the statistics. 2Q started with a bounce back with Harry Potter 7.1 and then the YoY gains plummeted because of Avatar and Alice in Wonderland in the later part of the 2Q. In the later parts of the 3Q and the 4Q better releases caused the YoY comparisons to rise again and since mid November now in the 4Q releases have turned again in favor of the 2010 period including another Twilight Saga movie and have caused the YoY comparisons to slip again a bit. Releases have mattered all year and they will matter in next years and the year after comparisons as well. 2011 will not have any Twilight: Saga movies or Avatar to be compared to 2012.

Consumers are increasingly buying older Blu-ray releases and catalog titles all year long and we can probably even see that in this weeks numbers as it was close despite the new releases being outclassed by last year's releases. Unit sales were probably close because the catalog sales for Blu-ray increased almost enough to cover the loss of sales coming from the outclassed new releases for this period.

It seems to be rather pessimistic to state that you expect that Blu-ray will have negative YoY growth in 2012 to 2011 by the time we get to the end of 2012. That is expecting Blu-ray to peak in 2011 which is highly unlikely as the hardware sales of Blu-ray players are increasing and software sales lag hardware sales. As the Blu-ray ownership base is larger next year the base rate of sales will be larger for the new release sales to add upon each week in their release strength TBO variation.

So far there is no signs of VOD EST sales increasing so Blu-ray is still growing faster than those alternatives.

What is your guess for the week ending 12/24/11 again?
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  #6  
Old 01-04-2012, 05:30 PM
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Wow that's a lot more than I expected after seeing the results of 12/17/11 and seeing the box office disparity in the advantage of last year's comparison week.

I guess Blu-ray will break $100 M this year after all.

With the low box office strength of the releases this week, half of what last year's power that means that a lot more people bought catalog and older release titles on Blu-ray this week.
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  #7  
Old 01-04-2012, 06:08 PM
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i voted 70-79 based on last week's chart showing a ~80m week. Had I seen your chart before voting, I probably would've gone a bit higher than 70-79.
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