IHS Report - UltraViolet Could Save Video Retail - Could Produce Big Dividends - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 12-23-2011, 03:42 PM
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Default IHS Report - UltraViolet Could Save Video Retail - Could Produce Big Dividends

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Report: UltraViolet Could Save Video Retail

23 Dec, 2011
By: Erik Gruenwedel



Nascent efforts to revitalize physical and electronic sellthrough through cloud-based UltraViolet could produce big dividends for studios in the coming years, according to a new report.

UltraViolet is the industry initiative launched in the fall by Warner Home Video with movies Horrible Bosses and Green Lantern that automatically grants viewing rights to movies purchased on disc into a virtual digital locker that can be assessed on compatible media devices. Titles can be played on any one of 12 devices owned by up to six members of a household, either via download or streaming from the cloud.

With combined sales of Blu-ray Disc, DVD and electronic movies projected to decline 29% in 2011 to $9.3 billion from a peak of $14.1 billion in 2004, it is imperative that consumers view UltraViolet as a value-added proposition to purchasing — not renting — movies, according to a new report from IHS Screen Digest.

Failure to thwart low-margin rental options such kiosks and subscription video-on-demand could see sellthrough of movies drop to $8.1 billion by 2015.


"The U.S. video retail business is in decline,” said Tom Adams, principal analyst and director, U.S. media, for IHS. “Although the rate of decrease moderated during the last two years from the double-digit drop in the recessionary year of 2009, we don't see those declines turning into renewed growth without a fundamental change in the ownership proposition for consumers.”

Adams said UltraViolet offers the requisite options required to change consumer behavior that the existing electronic sellthrough (EST) business by increasing access of purchased media.


"We think it's important that UltraViolet is being launched not so much as a feature of EST files, but as a value-added feature of the digital disc, on which consumers have spent $113 billion since they were introduced in 1997," Adams said.

"Even if our projections are correct that annual disc sales in the United States will have declined in 2011, that's still about 14 times the size of the EST business. So, there are two advantages to a disc-focused strategy.

First, tens of millions of the studios' best customers will be quickly exposed to the UltraViolet pitch in the box. Second, if UltraViolet it sparks just a 7% increase in consumer disc buying in the years ahead, it would pay off for studios as much as a doubling of the EST business."
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/fil...ltraViolet.jpg
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Old 12-23-2011, 04:36 PM
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I was told hmm was anti digital...

Anyways according to some here theres no 'saving' unless UV sells catalog titles at the same rate and price that DVD did. Thats the only thing that matters...
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Old 12-23-2011, 04:43 PM
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Forbes

TECH | 12/23/2011 @ 11:12AM

With Home Entertainment Sales Spiraling Downward, Movie Studios Turn to UltraViolet


Warner Home Video’s launch of the first UltraViolet-enabled Blu-ray Disc (BD) titles sounds the starting gun for the studios’ bid to resuscitate the health of their flagging video retail business by enhancing the value of physical media through the addition of enhanced digital access, which buyers can use to play the content on their computers, tablets and mobile phones.

The stakes are enormous for the studios, with combined U.S. consumer purchasing of video content—both physical and electronic—expected to decline to $9.9 billion in 2011, down 29 percent from its $14.1 billion peak in 2004, according to the IHS Screen Digest US Video Intelligence Service from information and analysis provider IHS. Unless there’s a change in the consumer proposition, revenue is expected to continue to fall in the coming years to $8.1 billion in 2015, as presented in the figure attached.

“The U.S. video retail business is in decline,” said Tom Adams, principal analyst and director, U.S. media, for IHS. “Although the rate of decrease moderated during the last two years from the double-digit drop in the recessionary year of 2009, we don’t see those declines turning into renewed growth without a fundamental change in the ownership proposition for consumers. UltraViolet delivers that kind of change. In the absence of easy access to all their purchased content across all their proliferating number of screens, consumers have been cutting back on buying discs, while the growing electronic sell-through (EST) market is simply too small to make up the difference.”

Instead, consumers are increasingly turning to the already popular disc-rental option, while consuming more and more on-demand video through both their pay-TV subscriptions and Internet-based subscription services like Netflix, Adams noted. The problem for film and TV producers is that the purchase models—both physical and electronic—produce far more revenue per view than do rentals or subscription services.

That’s why five of the six major studios—all save Disney—have joined in the Digital Entertainment Content Ecosystem (DECE) consortium with leading physical and electronic retailers and key technology companies to develop UltraViolet.

UltraViolet is a common file format and digital rights authentication system designed to allow a digital copy of a film or television show bought from any vendor—physical or electronic—to be played on any one of 12 devices owned by up to six members of a household, either via download or streaming from the cloud.

Warner Home Video kicked off the UltraViolet market in October in the United States with the release of the first Blu-ray Discs (BDs) enabled with the technology. The company rolled out Horrible Bosses on Oct. 11 and Green Lantern Oct. 14. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and The Hangover Part II are the latest UltraViolet releases.

“We think it’s important that UltraViolet is being launched not so much as a feature of EST files, but as a value-added feature of the digital disc, on which consumers have spent $113 billion since they were introduced in 1997,” Adams added. “Even if our projections are correct that annual disc sales in the United States will have declined to some $9.3 billion in 2011, that’s still about 14 times the size of the EST business. So, there are two advantages to a disc-focused strategy. First, tens of millions of the studios’ best customers will be quickly exposed to the UltraViolet pitch in the box. Second, if UltraViolet it sparks just a 7 percent increase in consumer disc buying in the years ahead, it would pay off for studios as much as a doubling of the EST business.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngaud...rtner=yahootix
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Old 12-23-2011, 04:48 PM
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Can UltraViolet Revitalize the Video Retail Business?


December 23, 2011
TOM ADAMS

Warner Home Video’s launch of the first UltraViolet-enabled Blu-ray Disc (BD) titles sounds the starting gun for the studios’ bid to resuscitate the health of their flagging video retail business by enhancing the value of physical media through the addition of enhanced digital access, which buyers can use to play the content on their computers, tablets and mobile phones.

The stakes are enormous for the studios, with combined U.S. consumer purchasing of video content—both physical and electronic—expected to decline to $9.9 billion in 2011, down 29 percent from its $14.1 billion peak in 2004, according to the IHS Screen Digest US Video Intelligence Service from information and analysis provider IHS (NYSE: IHS). Unless there’s a change in the consumer proposition, revenue is expected to continue to fall in the coming years to $8.1 billion in 2015, as presented in the figure below.



"The U.S. video retail business is in decline,” said Tom Adams, principal analyst and director, U.S. media, for IHS. “Although the rate of decrease moderated during the last two years from the double-digit drop in the recessionary year of 2009, we don't see those declines turning into renewed growth without a fundamental change in the ownership proposition for consumers. UltraViolet delivers that kind of change. In the absence of easy access to all their purchased content across all their proliferating number of screens, consumers have been cutting back on buying discs, while the growing electronic sell-through (EST) market is simply too small to make up the difference."
Instead, consumers are increasingly turning to the already popular disc-rental option, while consuming more and more on-demand video through both their pay-TV subscriptions and Internet-based subscription services like Netflix, Adams noted. The problem for film and TV producers is that the purchase models—both physical and electronic—produce far more revenue per view than do rentals or subscription services.


That's why five of the six major studios—all save Disney—have joined in the Digital Entertainment Content Ecosystem (DECE) consortium with leading physical and electronic retailers and key technology companies to develop UltraViolet.

UltraViolet is a common file format and digital rights authentication system designed to allow a digital copy of a film or television show bought from any vendor—physical or electronic—to be played on any one of 12 devices owned by up to six members of a household, either via download or streaming from the cloud.

Warner Home Video kicked off the UltraViolet market in October in the United States with the release of the first Blu-ray Discs (BDs) enabled with the technology. The company rolled out “Horrible Bosses” on Oct. 11 and “Green Lantern” Oct. 14.

"We think it's important that UltraViolet is being launched not so much as a feature of EST files, but as a value-added feature of the digital disc, on which consumers have spent $113 billion since they were introduced in 1997," Adams added. "Even if our projections are correct that annual disc sales in the United States will have declined to some $9.3 billion in 2011, that's still about 14 times the size of the EST business. So, there are two advantages to a disc-focused strategy. First, tens of millions of the studios' best customers will be quickly exposed to the UltraViolet pitch in the box. Second, if UltraViolet it sparks just a 7 percent increase in consumer disc buying in the years ahead, it would pay off for studios as much as a doubling of the EST business."
http://www.isuppli.com/Media-Researc...-Business.aspx
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:19 PM
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The studios are in for a rude awakening unless they find a way to stop cheap rentals (ala Redbox, Netflix, Hulu, etc) and also make more movies that people actually want to own. I find myself buying more and more catalog titles because I simply feel most newer releases are a rental at best.
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Old 12-23-2011, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
The studios are in for a rude awakening unless they find a way to stop cheap rentals (ala Redbox, Netflix, Hulu, etc) and also make more movies that people actually want to own. I find myself buying more and more catalog titles because I simply feel most newer releases are a rental at best.
First Sale Doctrine :wink:
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Old 12-24-2011, 12:24 AM
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So Bluray is not going to save OD? These guys sound suprised. These storys Show retail is in trouble. I say that and I'm a pessimist. I guess it's ok as long as you don't mention Bluray underperforming.
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Old 12-24-2011, 12:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
So Bluray is not going to save OD? These guys sound suprised. These storys Show retail is in trouble. I say that and I'm a pessimist. I guess it's ok as long as you don't mention Bluray underperforming.
Everyone expects that total physical optical disc packaged media revenues will decline over time.

There is no news there.

Most of us just realize that neither Blu-ray or even DVD is going to go away anytime soon and we all see Blu-ray increasing every year while DVD revenues continue to decline.
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Old 12-24-2011, 12:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Everyone expects that total physical optical disc packaged media revenues will decline over time.

There is no news there.

Most of us just realize that neither Blu-ray or even DVD is going to go away anytime soon and we all see Blu-ray increasing every year while DVD revenues continue to decline.
Thats a lie. Everyone does not see this. 1 year left of growth is all it has left. The sales numbers prove it. This year is gonna show about $400 million in sellthrough growth max. Last year was more. This is with a MUCH larger install base of bd households as well as a much larger # of catalog titles released this year and total titles released.


I see next year as the peak for blu-ray sellthrough revenue. There is very little major catalog left that is going to sell big like star wars. Jaws is released next year and more than likely Indy Jones as well.

Sorry, but your charts are lining up to show a peak for next year. Less revenue growth this year than last year. Thats a sign its getting ready to peak.
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Old 12-24-2011, 12:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Everyone expects that total physical optical disc packaged media revenues will decline over time.

There is no news there.

Most of us just realize that neither Blu-ray or even DVD is going to go away anytime soon and we all see Blu-ray increasing every year while DVD revenues continue to decline.
LOL - how can BD "increasing every year" happen? It has to peak at some point in time and that point is going to be quicker then when DVD peaked.
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