What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 12/17/11? - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 12/17/11 Rise Planet of the Apes
$140.00 million or above 0 0%
$130.00 –139.99 million 0 0%
$120.00 -129.99 million 0 0%
$110.00 -119.99 million 2 40.00%
$100.00 -109.99 million 0 0%
$90.00 - 99.00 million 1 20.00%
$80.00 - 89.99 million 1 20.00%
$70.00 – 79.99 million 1 20.00%
$60.00 – 69.99 million 0 0%
$59.99 million or below 0 0%
Voters: 5. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 12-17-2011, 06:49 PM
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Default What will HMM report as BD revenues for Sun-Sat WE 12/17/11?

Revenue Poll for Week before Christmas


Code:
WE 12/17/11  (99.00 M BD 2010)	
HOLIDAY SALES

175.6	12/13/11	Rise of the Planet of the Apes
165.2	12/13/11	Kung Fu Panda 2
340.8

247.5	12/14/10	Despicable Me
118.5	12/14/10	Other Guys, The
 77.2	12/14/10	A-Team, The
 28.8	12/14/10	Nanny McPhee Returns
 91.7	12/17/10	Town, The
 54.8	12/17/10	Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole 
618.5
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  #2  
Old 12-17-2011, 07:27 PM
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I'm going to wait until we get the revenue data for 12/11/11 The Hangover II week and the Nielsen Videoscan first alert data here before I hazard a guess on this one.
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  #3  
Old 12-19-2011, 03:41 AM
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Quote:
Projections: The ‘Apes’ Will Rise Again


19 Dec, 2011
By: John Latchem



The two biggest titles released Dec. 13 are Fox’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, a reboot of the famed “Planet of the Apes” franchise, and Paramount’s Kung Fu Panda 2, the latest from DreamWorks Animation.

Having drawn $176.7 million at the domestic box office due to its warm critical reception and fanboy appeal, Apes should have the edge on the sales chart for the week ending Dec. 18. But Panda, no slouch at $165.2 million, should benefit from a strong family appeal and likely will top the rental chart.



Quote:
Projected Top 3 Sellers for Week Ending 12/18/2011


1 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox New

2 Kung Fu Panda 2 Paramount/DreamWorks New

3 The Hangover Part II Warner 2
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...se-again-25890
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  #4  
Old 12-27-2011, 06:32 AM
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I'll go in the $110 M range as my guess.

It looks like we will not get this data until after the new year so go ahead and vote if you all wish even if the poll is closed.

Well I'll go with just above the year before based on the other high volume weeks we have seen from Black Friday and the recent weeks based on my assumption that the release strength in favor of 2010 will depress the growth of Blu-ray in the YoY comparison but the growth in the user base and higher catalog sales will offset the TBO disadvantage.
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  #5  
Old 12-27-2011, 09:19 PM
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We've seen in recent weeks what a BO power disadvantage does to the stats, and this week the mismatch is enormous. 2011 doesn't have a chance. About $600M of that 2010 BO power is in strong Blu-ray genres. Plus it was Inception week 2, Twilight week 3.
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  #6  
Old 12-27-2011, 09:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
We've seen in recent weeks what a BO power disadvantage does to the stats, and this week the mismatch is enormous. 2011 doesn't have a chance. About $600M of that 2010 BO power is in strong Blu-ray genres. Plus it was Inception week 2, Twilight week 3.

You are right the TBO isn't even close and it strongly favors 2010. Its almost double.

If the YoY gets close or is actually higher its not going to be on the strength of this weeks releases its going to be of underlying strength and growth of the Blu-ray user base and retailer support.

This should be one of the two weeks that new release strength is a bit less of a factor for the two weeks before Christmas as catalog sales and sale prices have a larger impact but an almost $260 M TBO advantage to 2010 in this weeks comparison is hard to ignore.

Code:
WE 12/03/11  (59.19 M BD 2010)
Sunday of BLACK FRIDAY and Cyber Monday sales)
	
140.6	12/02/11	Smurfs
 55.8	12/02/11	Friends With Benefits
 37.1	11/29/11	30 Minutes or Less
233.5	

300.5	12/04/10	Twilight Saga: Eclipse
 76.4	11/30/10	Knight and Day
 63.2	11/30/10	Sorcerer's Apprentice, The
 36.5	11/30/10	Vampires Suck
476.6
Code:
WE 12/10/11  (77.20 M BD 2010)	
HOLIDAY SALES

254.5	12/06/11	Hangover Part II
166.2	12/06/11	The Help
100.1	12/06/11	Cowboys & Aliens
 68.2	12/06/11	Mr. Popper's Penguins
 31.1	12/06/11	Debt
620.1
	
289.4	12/07/10	Inception
238.4	12/07/10	Shrek Forever After
527.8
Code:
WE 12/17/11  (99.00 M BD 2010)	
HOLIDAY SALES

175.6	12/13/11	Rise of the Planet of the Apes
165.2	12/13/11	Kung Fu Panda 2
340.8

247.5	12/14/10	Despicable Me
118.5	12/14/10	Other Guys, The
 77.2	12/14/10	A-Team, The
 28.8	12/14/10	Nanny McPhee Returns
 91.7	12/17/10	Town, The
 54.8	12/17/10	Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole 
618.5
Code:
WE 12/24/11	(109.27 M BD 2010)
CHRISTMAS WEEK

 64.4	12/20/11	Dolphin Tale
 55.3	12/20/11	Midnight in Paris
 36.5	12/20/11	Colombiana
156.2	

118.2	12/21/10	Salt
 57.2	12/21/10	Easy A
 52.2	12/21/10	Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
 42.4	12/21/10	Step UP 3
 33.6	12/21/10	Devil
303.6
Code:
WE 12/31/11	(51.24 M BD 2010)   	 

 42.6	12/27/11	Final Destination 5
 42.6

 60.1	12/28/10	Resident Evil: Afterlife
 35.6	12/28/10	American, The
 95.7
[/B]
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  #7  
Old 12-27-2011, 09:35 PM
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I would just take last years divide by 2 and add 25 percent. What would that be?
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  #8  
Old 12-27-2011, 09:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
I would just take last years divide by 2 and add 25 percent. What would that be?
$99.0 M for last year divided by two is $49.5 x 1.25 = $61.85 M


If we wanted to just use the pure TBO comparison for this week with a 25% growth factor then that would be: ($99 M x 340.8 M 2011 TBO / 618.5 M 2010 TBO ) x 1.25% 2011 YoY growth factor = 69.18 M
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  #9  
Old 12-27-2011, 09:48 PM
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That's actually a pretty cool idea. We probably could make up next year some sort of prediction model for guessing the next weeks revenues based on the average YoY gain for the year and take 100% of the TBO ratio for the week, 50% of the TBO ratio for the week before and 25% for the TBO ratio of the two weeks before and through in a slight genre adjustment and make a fairly predictive model for predicting the next weeks sales figures. That could be fun.
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  #10  
Old 12-27-2011, 09:52 PM
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Thanks, I think that there will be some increase baseline catalog sales, so I think it's going to be 70-79, possible 80-89.
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