Gadgets That Will Be Phased Out By 2020 - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 10-20-2011, 10:11 AM
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Default Gadgets That Will Be Phased Out By 2020

http://shopping.yahoo.com/articles/y...around-in-2020


Found this at yahoo.
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Old 10-20-2011, 10:59 AM
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It's an interesting piece, there's a couple of things I disagree with, like GPS units being replaced by smartphones - small smartphones suck as satnavs, and smartphones big enough to work as satnavs suck at being 'phones, and GPS hardware can be bought for peanuts. Maybe if smartphones get windscreen projection and gesture control?

I also wonder about the digital camera thing, especially "now low-end camera functions are being taken over by smartphones" - now? I can remember hearing similar things when I got my Sony K850i, that was 4 years ago. In the meantime cameras have got cheaper while quality and features have increased. Those dead flip cameras (which seem to be pretty popular over here right now) for example, cost about a 10th the price of a 4S.

Probably the biggest gaff IMO is the game-console-in-your-TV thing, I think there'll be a switch to server hosted "cloud" gaming, with the TV (or tablet or smartphone) acting as nothing more than a thin client, effectively making differing gaming platforms obsolete. I really don't think embedded game systems would be a big winner.

Oh, and unless he still thinks people play Pong, I have no idea what Mr Enderle's idea of an "analog game system" is :biggrin:

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The gaming systems that will succeed in the future will be those that manage to move away from being focused solely on video games and more on other entertainment options such as movies, evolving from a traditional game console into more of a set-top box.
That's just a stupid idea.... I mean where would the PS3 and 360 be if they'd adopted that crazy conce..... oh, hang on a sec..... :doh2:

Ray Von
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Old 10-20-2011, 11:23 AM
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We saw what happened a few week back when Netflix tried to begin to "Phase Out" optical media by making the company into 2 parts. If optical was not popular it would not have been that big of a deal but having so many people rely on DVD still and having to manage 2 lists it was... Consumers and Investors went ballistic. I'm not sure I disagree completely with what's on the list but by 2020? I'm not so sure. They should probably add Netflix to the list.
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Old 10-20-2011, 01:17 PM
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Smartphones are great and all, but optical zoom and tiny lenses will never beat real cameras.
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Old 10-20-2011, 04:12 PM
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Quotes from the same guy in 2007:

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“It means that any studio wanting Wal-Mart’s support after year end had better be selling HD DVD movies. Wal-Mart won’t be promoting Blu-Ray and, after year end, will increasingly focus their marketing on getting people to buy into HD DVD players and the related HD DVD movie from them.

In short, the Blu-Ray aligned studios will now have to either support both formats or risk losing much of Wal-Mart's business and given how material this business is to them, you have to think that an anti-Wall-Mart decision would have a material impact on their bonuses and career longevity. It certainly puts Columbia Pictures, which is owned by Sony, in a particularly uncomfortable position.”
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Old 10-20-2011, 08:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Von View Post
That's just a stupid idea.... I mean where would the PS3 and 360 be if they'd adopted that crazy conce..... oh, hang on a sec..... :doh2:
Yeah that was a little weird. Maybe he didnt know the Wii was the number 1 netflix streamer...

Though I do agree that we wont have consoles though. I think by 2020 chips will be super low power that everything might as well be portable.. PS6 might just be a dual shock tablet, or smartphone, sending a wireless 4K signal to the TV.
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Old 10-21-2011, 06:52 PM
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Enderle expects that consumers will instead buy smart televisions with a gaming system built into it, not to mention tablets and smartphones that will continue to ramp up their gaming options.
Really? So consumers will be happy to buy a TV set that when retired, tosses out their gaming system too? Hardly. Further, an integrated multi-functional device will NEVER exceed the capabilities of a dedicated device. Cramming all these functions into a smartphone or another device might look good on paper, but in terms of practicality, the very nature of each function forces it to compete with the design aesthetics of such a device.
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Old 10-21-2011, 07:13 PM
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By 2020 I want my jet pack. :biggrin:

That's too far out of a time horizon for me to care much about. :wink:
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Old 10-21-2011, 07:34 PM
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First of all, Enderle's an idiot. He's a known hack and amateur who has mental deficincies which do not allow him any rational thought whatsover. Unfortunately, due to some legal requirement (I assume) magazines and articles are required to include at least one Enderle quote in any future predictions so that their editor is not thrown in jail. Something to do with equal rights for the mentally handicapped (or incapable?) I'm guessing.

DVD players may be dead for BD, but DVD won't be dead. BD won't be dead. Digital will be growing, as it has been. Video game consoles will be around for another 10+ years at the very least. Especially quality console type gaming consoles with the horsepower to really make an image shine.

Cameras? Cheap small ones I can see mostly going away. Not completely, but a definite movement towards cel phones. No matter how you look at it, a quality smart phone is likely to match a bottom of the line camera, or come close. And, every two years I can upgrade my current phone to one newer and pass the old one down the line. At $400 for the new 4s, I'm not sure I'm about to get rid of it.

My Garmin was replaced by my cel phone a while ago and I'm extremely happy I did that replacement!
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Old 10-21-2011, 07:59 PM
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This seems accurate enough for DVD players by 2020. I doubt you will find many DVD only players at mainstream retailers by then even as the cheapest option.

Streaming or digital downloads are only going to get better over time and Blu-ray players with streaming may be still around by 2020 but DVD only players will start to get more scarce at retail ever year going forward until they just go the way of VCR machines.

Quote:
DVD Players

DVD players are in the process of being phased out now by Blu-ray players and will likely be erased from the consumer landscape by the end of the decade.

“The DVD player should be replaced by digital delivery,” says Ian Olgeirson, a senior analyst at SNL Kagan, who points to streaming movie services like Netflix as being the future. “Blu-rays and whatever the next generation high-end movie format emerges could prolong the lifespan because of challenges around streaming, but eventually the disc is going to be phased out.”

The idea of placing a disc into a DVD player to watch a movie will eventually seem as outdated as placing a record on a turntable, which brings us to the next product on our list…
http://shopping.yahoo.com/articles/y...around-in-2020
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