IHS Screen Digest Blu-ray “Thor” and “Star Wars” Releases Spur Blu-ray Rebound - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 10-14-2011, 08:38 PM
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Default IHS Screen Digest Blu-ray “Thor” and “Star Wars” Releases Spur Blu-ray Rebound

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Blu-ray Finds a Superhero


14 Oct, 2011
By: Erik Gruenwedel


'Thor'

Hi-definition format not only takes greater percentage of disc sales in September, it reaffirms consumer interest in packaged media

Strong sales of Thor, X-Men: First Class and Star Wars: The Complete Saga, among others, have helped create a renaissance of sorts for Blu-ray Disc and packaged media, according to a new report.

Thor and Stars Wars generated a 156% surge in BD sales in the week ending Sept. 18 — a week after the format posted a 131% sales rise on the heels of X-Men: First Class, according to research firm IHS. Blu-ray releases of Tyler Perry’s Big Happy Family, Sons of Anarchy: Season 3 and Rio (released Aug. 2) contributed to a 60% sales increase during the week ending Sept. 4.

Specifically, X-Men: First Class sold an estimated 350,000 Blu-ray copies during the first 72 hours after its Sept. 9 release, and 600,000 units by the end of the first week, according to IHS and Nielsen Videoscan data. Thor and Thor 3D (released Sept. 13) sold a combined 500,000 Blu-ray copies during their first week of release. 3D Blu-ray represented 14% of the title’s total sales, with the BD/DVD combo pack accounting for the remaining 86%.

The much-anticipated Star Wars BD release sold 400,000 units in the first three days following its Sept. 16 release. The six-movie, nine-disc set Stars Wars: The Complete Saga represented 92% of sales, with the original and prequel trilogies accounting for the rest, according to IHS.

Indeed, Blu-ray helped push total (combined with DVD) disc sales up 1% to 10 million units during the week ending Sept. 18, compared with the same period in 2010.

“Studios are starting to bring the crown jewels out of the vault for BD release,” said Jan Saxton, senior U.S. video analyst for IHS. “That, coupled with the first releases from a very strong summer box office, has the potential to turn the movie disc market around.”
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu...uperhero-25360

Last edited by Kosty; 10-14-2011 at 11:18 PM.
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Old 10-14-2011, 08:40 PM
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Star Wars and Thor Bring Home the Blu-ray Bacon


Posted by Hugh Bennett on 14 October 2011, 9:48 am

IHS Screen Digest announced that strong demand for Thor and the Star Wars saga prompted a 156% surge in U.S. sales of the Blu-ray Disc (BD) format in the release week ending September 18, 2011.


For more information visit: www.isuppli.com




Unedited press release follows:




“Thor” and “Star Wars” Releases Spur Blu-ray Rebound


El Segundo, Calif., October 14, 2011—Strong sales of “Thor” and the “Star Wars” saga on Blu-ray Disc (BD) prompted a 156 percent surge in U.S. sales of the format in the release week ending September 18, possibly pointing to brighter days ahead for the overall market for movies on disc, according to the new IHS report “Star Wars Shines in its BD Debut,” from information and analysis provider IHS (NYSE: IHS).

That triple-digit year-over-year-growth caps a period in which U.S. BD sales already were starting to post the kind of robust growth rates the new format’s backers had hoped for following its 2006 launch. According to an IHS analysis of Nielsen’s VideoScan data, U.S. BD sales posted a 131 percent increase for the week of September 11, supported by the release of “X-Men: First Class,” and a 60 percent gain the week of September 4, supported by the release of “Tyler Perry’s Big Happy Family,” “Sons of Anarchy: Season 3,” and the continued strong sales of “Rio” which released on August 2 but was still the number one BD title for the week.


The surge in sales propelled the growth of the overall market for physical movies in the United States into positive territory for the week of September 18. Combined U.S. DVD and BD sales rose 1 percent for the week, compared to flat growth during the week of September 11 and a 3 percent decline during the week of September 4, as presented in the table below.



“Studios are starting to bring the crown jewels out of the vault for BD release,” observed Jan Saxton, senior U.S. video analyst for IHS. “That, coupled with the first releases from a very strong summer box office, has the potential to turn the movie disc market around. Weak DVD sales have continually dragged the market down in 2011, but with the strong showing of ‘X-men: First Class,’ ‘Thor’ and ‘Star Wars,’ the overall market may have hit an inflection point.”

“X-men: First Class” has special powers

“X-men: First Class” kicked off the BD sales rally with a Friday release on September 9, selling an estimated 350,000 BD units in its first three days at retail and more than 600,000 by the end of its first full week on the market, according to an IHS analysis of Nielsen VideoScan data.

“Thor” hammers out strong sales
“Thor” and “Thor 3D” arrived on video September 13, and together sold half a million BDs during their first week of availability. 3-D Blu-ray (BD3D) represented 14 percent of the total units sold with BD/DVD combo packs making up the other 86 percent .

“Star Wars” goes into hyperdrive
“Star Wars” fans greeted the Friday, September 16, arrival of the iconic series on BD enthusiastically, buying a total of 400,000 units in the U.S. in just its first three days of availability. The six-movie, nine-disc set represented 92 percent of total units sold, with the original and prequel trilogies making up the rest.

The $139.99 manufacturers’ suggested retail price (MSRP) for “Star Wars: The Complete Saga” was heavily discounted: Amazon.com lists the BD set for $82.99 while Walmart has it set for sale online at $79.99. That suggests retail revenue was $30 million from its first three days of sales.

To learn more about this topic, see IHS Screen Digest U.S. Video Intelligence Service.

About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information and insight in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape, including energy and power; design and supply chain; defense, risk and security; environmental, health and safety (EHS) and sustainability; country and industry forecasting; and commodities, pricing and cost. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS employs more than 5,100 people in more than 30 countries around the world.

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http://www.hughsnews.ca/star-wars-an...-bacon-0027734

Last edited by Kosty; 10-14-2011 at 11:19 PM.
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Old 10-14-2011, 08:49 PM
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Sales are strong right now in large part because the deals are better. Now you routinely get a top selling BD + DVD combo for under $20 on release week, whereas a year ago it was either over $20 or it was just the BD only (with no DVD/DC). So street pricing on BD has become much more aggressive this year and it seems that average prices of top BD titles have fallen about $5 on average.

Another interesting note is that the article claims that 400k of Star War sold the first 3 days, of which 92% was the Saga set. That would make 368k units sold Friday-Sunday according to IHS. That seems more accurate than the 515k that The-Numbers is stating that were sold in those 3 days.
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Old 10-14-2011, 08:55 PM
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Also note that it says that 350k copies of BD x-men:fc sold in the first 3 days, while The-Numbers claims 824k. That's a huge difference.

And finally Thor BD sold 500k in week 1, while Numbers says 798k. Another large differential.

I would tend to believe that IHS/Videoscan's estimates are more accurate.
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Old 10-14-2011, 10:18 PM
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The-Numbers site did say they screwed up the Thor first week sales and they revised the data (probably by placing less units and revenues in the second week. So we know that was an outlier.


That entire week of 9/18/11 was screwing in the Blu-ray Top 10 for The-Numbers. The BD index numbers were not only close they were exact matches for the Nielsen Videoscan report that week and Thor, X-Men : First Class Spartacus: Gods of the Arena and Hanna all had TN BD unit marketshares that were 11-12% higher than the BD unit marketshares for the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report. It was like they changed their methodology for that week or did not get their normal data source in time. That coincidentally was a week where HMM also had difficulty in getting data as well.

The weeks before that Sep 18 week and not the two weeks of data afterword have returned to normal in being very close to the Nielsen Videoscan data so I think that week was somehow a worse case.

There is no IHS Screen Digest data here, they are looking at Nielsen Videoscan data.
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Old 10-14-2011, 10:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
There is no IHS Screen Digest data here, they are looking at Nielsen Videoscan data.
Nielsen Videoscan does unit estimates? So the 400k star wars, 350k xmen and 500k thor are from them and them alone?
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Old 10-14-2011, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Sales are strong right now in large part because the deals are better. Now you routinely get a top selling BD + DVD combo for under $20 on release week, whereas a year ago it was either over $20 or it was just the BD only (with no DVD/DC). So street pricing on BD has become much more aggressive this year and it seems that average prices of top BD titles have fallen about $5 on average.
The deals are better as retailers are treating Blu-ray this year as more of a mass market mainstream high volume product category.

Street pricing has been more aggressive this year and it started last fall in November when retailers starting lowering the average cost of Blu-ray Discs across the board. That's actually been a factor in making the Q1 Q2 Q3 revenue gains more modest than Blu-ray unit sales gains as lower Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 Blu-ray prices per unit sold going against higher Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 unit prices translates into moderating the unit gain of Blu-ray sales translating into additional revenues.

That factor goes away in November and December of this year when its more apples to apples in the pricing comparisons as lower 2011 prices finally catch up to the time in 4Q 2010 when the prices dropped.
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Old 10-14-2011, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Nielsen Videoscan does unit estimates? So the 400k star wars, 350k xmen and 500k thor are from them and them alone?
The Nielsen Videoscan first alert report has unit and revenue estimates for the Top 50 titles for each week along with the index numbers based on the leading title.

HMM does not publish the actual unit figures but only publishes the index numbers and marketshare percentages.

IHS may have rounded up or down those unit estimates into nice round numbers for its press release and report as usually Nielsen Videoscan and the studios do not want exact estimate numbers published off the subscription NDA report.
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Old 10-14-2011, 10:39 PM
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The $139.99 manufacturers’ suggested retail price (MSRP) for “Star Wars: The Complete Saga” was heavily discounted: Amazon.com lists the BD set for $82.99 while Walmart has it set for sale online at $79.99. That suggests retail revenue was $30 million from its first three days of sales.
Fro that week, which we already said looked funky and and an outlier TN used the same factor to estimate the revenues. But we know that's flawed as $79.99 was the low price at one retailer best Buy while others had it for a bit more.

But like I said, that Sep 18 week looks to be the worse week for unit and revenue estimates for The-Numbers for Blu-ray for a few reasons. It really looks like they had a delay that week from their normal data sources and had to wing it to put something up by the deadline. Thor was really off that week as well for them.

The unit estimates for other weeks seem much closer to the Nielsen Videoscan first alert data which I sometimes see and others I have routine contact with have full access to each week.


Code:
Star Wars 515,000  $41,194,828 	2	$79.99
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Old 10-14-2011, 10:45 PM
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I do not have routine access for the first alert but I see it on occasion and can ask questions from people who get full access.

FWIW, the Nielsen Videoscan first alert still even through this week has the disclaimer on the bottom pf the report that it has always had since I first saw it in 2006 that each report we get still carries this disclaimer at the bottom:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nielsen Videoscan first alert disclaimer
"Please note: Data is pulled from Nielsen VideoScan reporting retailers only, Wal*Mart is not a reporting retailer."
That does not mean they have not switched over to including Walmart data in Videoscan, other sources tell me they have in August but it still is something of interest.
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