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Old 09-21-2011, 03:31 AM
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We've heard a lot on this forum that Blu-ray is just cannibalizing DVD sales. It's done nothing to grow the disc market and, overall, OD is shrinking and will disappear in a few years. Meanwhile, streaming is growing. Is this a legit way of looking at things or is on-disc an imaginary grouping? Would it be just as valid to say streaming is just cannibalizing DVD rentals/sales and has done nothing to grow the home video market, which is shrinkign and will disappear in a few years. Or, alternatively, that the low-quality market (DVD+ streaming) is shrinking while high-quality Blu-ray grows? What's the difference?

Also, just because a market is shrinking doesn't mean it is shrinking to 0. Bicycles were far more popular 100 years ago than they are today. Affordable cars shrank the market, but they didn't kill it. After a while, a new equilibrium was established. Is there any reason to think this won't happen to the OD market, assuming such a thing exists?
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Old 09-21-2011, 03:58 AM
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Some here have said that since Blu-ray is the anointed successor as the next generation DVD it should be held to a higher standard and that standard DVD and high definition Blu-ray should be lumped together as optical disc sales OD or packaged media.

In addition that new release sales and catalog sales in both units and volumes should be all lumped together as well as OD sales for the week or the year.

All of which to me starts to become nonsense as Blu-ray and DVD are going in opposite directions.

I agree that its far better to look at Blu-ray and all of the other high definition options together as one group vs declining standard definition DVD and increasing standard definition rentals on DVD and standard definition streaming and digital alternatives.

Or the other way that makes sense is looking at all the newer technologies and alternatives including Blu-ray , Redbox kiosk rentals, Netflix rentals and subscription streaming, Hulu Vudu UltraViolet, EST VOD and everything else all taking entertainment dollars away from the long term leader of DVD.

In both cases Blu-ray's growth is becoming faster as a standard definition DVD alternative and is higher margin to the studios and retailers than those other new alternatives to DVD.

Its only by trying to lump declining standard definition DVD in with growing high definition Blu-ray as OD that the comparison suffers. That's a valid comparison of course but its not the only perspective nor necessarily the best one either. Certainly not the only valid one.

No one expected Blu-ray to totally replace all of DVD with other digital and cloud based alternatives and other Internet and other distractions taking away DVD viewing nor did anyone expect Blu-ray catalog sales to be as strong as DVD as that would entail everyone buying their DVD libraries again on Blu-ray which is absurd.
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Old 09-21-2011, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Some here have said that since Blu-ray is the anointed successor as the next generation DVD it should be held to a higher standard and that standard DVD and high definition Blu-ray should be lumped together as optical disc sales OD or packaged media.

In addition that new release sales and catalog sales in both units and volumes should be all lumped together as well as OD sales for the week or the year.

All of which to me starts to become nonsense as Blu-ray and DVD are going in opposite directions.

I agree that its far better to look at Blu-ray and all of the other high definition options together as one group vs declining standard definition DVD and increasing standard definition rentals on DVD and standard definition streaming and digital alternatives.

Or the other way that makes sense is looking at all the newer technologies and alternatives including Blu-ray , Redbox kiosk rentals, Netflix rentals and subscription streaming, Hulu Vudu UltraViolet, EST VOD and everything else all taking entertainment dollars away from the long term leader of DVD.

In both cases Blu-ray's growth is becoming faster as a standard definition DVD alternative and is higher margin to the studios and retailers than those other new alternatives to DVD.

Its only by trying to lump declining standard definition DVD in with growing high definition Blu-ray as OD that the comparison suffers. That's a valid comparison of course but its not the only perspective nor necessarily the best one either. Certainly not the only valid one.

No one expected Blu-ray to totally replace all of DVD with other digital and cloud based alternatives and other Internet and other distractions taking away DVD viewing nor did anyone expect Blu-ray catalog sales to be as strong as DVD as that would entail everyone buying their DVD libraries again on Blu-ray which is absurd.
None of what you just said makes any sense. One post you are calling the very idea of putting physical media together in total OD sales absurd, then another post will have you praising and jumping up and down in excitement at what the combo only release will do. We can't lump them together because it makes blu ray look bad (your words), but then we can lump them together to boost blu ray sales?
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Old 09-21-2011, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by silverado View Post
None of what you just said makes any sense. One post you are calling the very idea of putting physical media together in total OD sales absurd, then another post will have you praising and jumping up and down in excitement at what the combo only release will do. We can't lump them together because it makes blu ray look bad (your words), but then we can lump them together to boost blu ray sales?
Those combo packs typically have a digital copy as well. It's not very good evidence of an OD alliance.
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Old 09-21-2011, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by silverado View Post
None of what you just said makes any sense. One post you are calling the very idea of putting physical media together in total OD sales absurd, then another post will have you praising and jumping up and down in excitement at what the combo only release will do. We can't lump them together because it makes blu ray look bad (your words), but then we can lump them together to boost blu ray sales?
Why do you insist that the reason combos are on the market is too make Blu-ray sales look good?

That's probably among the last reasons the studios consider and to retailers its irrelevant.

No one except a few here care that the industry counts a premium combo sku with both a Blu-ray and a bonus DVD in the package or in a different style case as a next generation high definition Blu-ray sale. It is what it is. Its the way the industry counts it and that's because no matter what the technique used or the marketing strategy implemented its still a higher margin next generation DVD optical disc in the form of a Blu-ray Disc going to a household.

I did not saying looking at DVD and Blu-ray sales together as OD as absurd either, its a valid metric but its disingeniousness to keep saying it to obscure the fact that Blu-ray is growing while DVD is in decline.
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Old 09-21-2011, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Why do you insist that the reason combos are on the market is too make Blu-ray sales look good?

That's probably among the last reasons the studios consider and to retailers its irrelevant.

No one except a few here care that the industry counts a premium combo sku with both a Blu-ray and a bonus DVD in the package or in a different style case as a next generation high definition Blu-ray sale. It is what it is. Its the way the industry counts it and that's because no matter what the technique used or the marketing strategy implemented its still a higher margin next generation DVD optical disc in the form of a Blu-ray Disc going to a household.

I did not saying looking at DVD and Blu-ray sales together as OD as absurd either, its a valid metric but its disingeniousness to keep saying it to obscure the fact that Blu-ray is growing while DVD is in decline.
I look at it the other way. DVDs and EST are weak markets while BD is a growing market. There will be cannibalization that is impossible to get away from, but doesn't stop the fact that it's still growing. Digital sales are abysmal and not even growing andI think studios are putting digital copies on the back of Blu-ray to help seed the market.

Obviously, it's not helping the digital market grow because people just aren't buying digital movies or TV shows to the extent they probably would like. I would even argue that putting the DVD and DC has hurt BD by making it more expensive for consumers at a time when people are cost conscious.

Eventually all you see is combo packs. That's my guess.
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Old 09-21-2011, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Why do you insist that the reason combos are on the market is too make Blu-ray sales look good?

That's probably among the last reasons the studios consider and to retailers its irrelevant.
Yeah I don't see much benefit to boosting BD numbers at this point. During the format war, sure, but now? The home video market is one big money pie for the studios, they really don't care whatsoever how big the different format slices are. I know the average consumer certainly doesn't care.

As for digital, I suspect we'll start to see some real growth over the next year or two, especially if Amazon keeps up its rather aggressive expansion strategy and Apple sells another gazillion iPads. I have to admit, I'm about to pull the trigger on Fringe Season 3 from Amazon Instant Video instead of waiting for the Blu-Rays. Its $30 vs $45 which is a pretty chunky savings, and the quality is quite good. I also grabbed Battlestar Galactica Season 4 when Amazon had their HD Seasons gold box day - got tired of waiting for the BD set to drop in price and $11.99 for the entire season was too good a deal to pass up. I'm certainly not ready to switch completely to digital, but I admit I'm starting to warm up to it for at least some content.
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Old 09-21-2011, 02:15 PM
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Yeah I don't see much benefit to boosting BD numbers at this point. During the format war, sure, but now? The home video market is one big money pie for the studios, they really don't care whatsoever how big the different format slices are. I know the average consumer certainly doesn't care.

As for digital, I suspect we'll start to see some real growth over the next year or two, especially if Amazon keeps up its rather aggressive expansion strategy and Apple sells another gazillion iPads. I have to admit, I'm about to pull the trigger on Fringe Season 3 from Amazon Instant Video instead of waiting for the Blu-Rays. Its $30 vs $45 which is a pretty chunky savings, and the quality is quite good. I also grabbed Battlestar Galactica Season 4 when Amazon had their HD Seasons gold box day - got tired of waiting for the BD set to drop in price and $11.99 for the entire season was too good a deal to pass up. I'm certainly not ready to switch completely to digital, but I admit I'm starting to warm up to it for at least some content.
Amazon is rumored to be releasing their tablet device soon. Of course Amazon and Apple are not members of UV either, so it can still be a challenge to move content around across your devices. Can you play Amazon movies/TV shows you purchased on an Apple device (iPad, for instance)?
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Old 09-21-2011, 02:41 PM
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Can you play Amazon movies/TV shows you purchased on an Apple device (iPad, for instance)?
No, and that's definitely the big turn off so far in buying Amazon Instant Videos. I'm pretty sure that Amazon could easily offer HTML5 streaming over iOS devices, but I fear they're going to push their upcoming tablet instead. That's a mistake of course, as an iOS capable Amazon player could potentially bring them millions of new digital customers.

On the plus side, my Panasonic BD player and Vizio TV both play Amazon videos very well. And of course the videos stream well enough on PCs/Macs. You can also download good quality DRM'd WMV files for local PC playback as well (nice bonus if you have a HTPC).

The fragmentation in digital is a big downer on the whole technology at this point. Hopefully UV will address some of those issues. And hopefully more and more hardware will support all the major streaming companies. As it stands right now, Vizio appears to have the only devices on the market that play back Netflix, Hulu Plus, Vudu and Amazon Video. Each and every other CE device I have has Netflix and then 2 of the other 3.
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Old 09-21-2011, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Some here have said that since Blu-ray is the anointed successor as the next generation DVD it should be held to a higher standard and that standard DVD and high definition Blu-ray should be lumped together as optical disc sales OD or packaged media.

In addition that new release sales and catalog sales in both units and volumes should be all lumped together as well as OD sales for the week or the year.

All of which to me starts to become nonsense as Blu-ray and DVD are going in opposite directions.

I agree that its far better to look at Blu-ray and all of the other high definition options together as one group vs declining standard definition DVD and increasing standard definition rentals on DVD and standard definition streaming and digital alternatives.

Or the other way that makes sense is looking at all the newer technologies and alternatives including Blu-ray , Redbox kiosk rentals, Netflix rentals and subscription streaming, Hulu Vudu UltraViolet, EST VOD and everything else all taking entertainment dollars away from the long term leader of DVD.

In both cases Blu-ray's growth is becoming faster as a standard definition DVD alternative and is higher margin to the studios and retailers than those other new alternatives to DVD.

Its only by trying to lump declining standard definition DVD in with growing high definition Blu-ray as OD that the comparison suffers. That's a valid comparison of course but its not the only perspective nor necessarily the best one either. Certainly not the only valid one.

No one expected Blu-ray to totally replace all of DVD with other digital and cloud based alternatives and other Internet and other distractions taking away DVD viewing nor did anyone expect Blu-ray catalog sales to be as strong as DVD as that would entail everyone buying their DVD libraries again on Blu-ray which is absurd.
Why would the slogan "the future is Blu" be used? Nah! No one thought any of that! Do I have to mention what Bluray.com thinks?
Quote:
Yes, that's the expectation. The Blu-ray format has received broad support from the major movie studios as a successor to today's DVD format. In fact, seven of the eight major movie studios (Disney, Fox, Warner, Paramount, Sony, Lionsgate and MGM) have released titles in the Blu-ray format. Many studios have also announced that they will begin releasing new feature films on Blu-ray Disc day-and-date with DVD, as well as a continuous slate of catalog titles every month. For more information about Blu-ray movies, check out our Blu-ray movies section which offers information about new and upcoming Blu-ray releases, as well as what movies are currently available in the Blu-ray format.

However, the two formats (Blu-ray and DVD) will most likely co-exist for quite some time until HDTVs become more widespread.
Nah!! Nobody expected anything more than DVD co existing with Bluray. And even with HDTV adoption increasing dramatically. We are still seeing a huge discrepancy in HDTV vs Bluray ownership. Yes Kosty. The expectations were there. Some like yourself may have lowered their expectations. But that's not how it was during or right after the format war. I don't know why you keep trying to push this?
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