How Will Things Fall In A BD/DVD Marriage? - High-Def Digest Forums
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-15-2011, 12:03 PM
AV_Integrated's Avatar
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,153
Default How Will Things Fall In A BD/DVD Marriage?

This is all speculation (once again) but it seems like DVD while in decline, still has years left and certain strengths.

At some point it seems like the stores will have to seriously take a look at what their DVD floor space costs them in relation to other potentially higher revenue earning items, and Blu-ray may be considered one of those items which matters more.

Still, there are key areas where DVD seems to still outsell BD and will continue to do so and I wanted to get thoughts on that.

IMO: It seems like TV shows, for years, will have the potential for stronger sales on DVD due to lower prices primarily. For BD to compete, their prices on new releases would have to match those of the DVD counterparts, which may be nearly impossible to accomplish. For new release movies, I see stronger sales of BD eventually leading to more new movies dedicated to Blu-ray or getting more BD shelf space and inventory in stores. B&M stores, I see dumping a lot of catalog DVD sales except perhaps for a few hotter selling catalog titles. Instead, they will move all catalog options to their website, or just give up the business to Amazon.

I think we will never see DVD die, but I could be suprised by things if BD pricing ends up being a 1:1 wash for DVD titles. Still, it would be up to studios at some point to start releasing BD ahead of DVD, or to eliminate a stand alone DVD release in favor of a BD/DVD combo pack. I think it might be several years before we would see something like that, but potentially it could be good for studios as a revenue generator.

It would be a declaration by studios - we feel DVD is past its prime and people should switch to BD. If you want the DVD, you will pay a premium, not a discount, to buy into the legacy format. If you want to save money, then buy a BD player and get the chepaer BD only version.

Still, all this is speculation, and IMO 5+ years out. I do think with almost all new content being HD, that it will eventually be in the best interest of studios and retailers to shrink their floor space towards one format which earns them the highest revenue.
__________________
AV Integrated - Theater, whole house audio, and technology consultation during the build and installation process in the Washington DC, Northern VA, and MD area.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-15-2011, 12:25 PM
bruceames's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 7,479
Default

This is how I see it

DVD will be "married" to BD on new releases for 2-3 more years, at which point studios will (gradually, depending on the title) drop production of DVDs altogether, as most consumers by then will have BD players (especially the active buying consumer).

Studios will also stop releasing catalogs on DVD, as the market is just glutted with them already and are not selling enough to make a worthwhile profit.

TV shows for the most part will be the biggest casualty as people watch them more and more via streaming. Only the top newer shows and some old classics will see a BD release.

DVD will continue to thrive though in special interest and low budget movies, as well as the sale of the vast glut of existing catalog inventory. But for the most part (maybe 80-90% of sales) it will be Blu-ray, as soon as the player base if firmly esteablished.

The only question is, how much a an OD market will be left?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-15-2011, 12:42 PM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,346
Default

Look at CDs, it's still a 10B dollar business. The OD industry has a very long life ahead. Streaming will be held back mostly due to content providers not wanting to give up their "A" list content as cheaply as Netflix would like.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-15-2011, 12:44 PM
Taffy's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,130
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AV_Integrated View Post
This is all speculation (once again) but it seems like DVD while in decline, still has years left and certain strengths.

At some point it seems like the stores will have to seriously take a look at what their DVD floor space costs them in relation to other potentially higher revenue earning items, and Blu-ray may be considered one of those items which matters more.

Still, there are key areas where DVD seems to still outsell BD and will continue to do so and I wanted to get thoughts on that...
Matters more. :doh2: Maybe I'm missing something but I'm under the impression that during one of Blu rays worst weeks, DVD still came through with 100 million in revenue and accounted for 85% of revenue. :magnifingglass:



Now...I was no business major and I'm not a "number's" man, but despite BR's premium pricing, DVD still appears to be totally dominant. DVD's main selling point??? It's cheaper and has a hell-of-a-lot more titles. Go to any Walmart and check it out.

That being said, I enjoy Blu ray, but...there's a lot more things I'd prefer to do with my spare time than watch a movie I've already seen. Never-the-less Black Friday is slowly rolling around and you know what THAT means to seasoned BR buyers. Time to look for bargains on BR titles released in previous quarters. Yes...that's right. Blu ray has become, for me anyway, a seasonal purchase.

Just some thoughts....
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-15-2011, 12:57 PM
Kosty's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 28,296
Default

That's a really abnormal week there for the relationship for Blu-ray and DVD as its the end of summer and the release was a Tyler Perry urban comedy that is a lagging genre for Blu-ray and does better on DVD.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-15-2011, 12:58 PM
Kosty's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 28,296
Default

Blu-ray is steadily gaining ground throughout the year and will show the same historical surge in sales that DVD has shown during the past decade in the last three and a half months of the year.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09-15-2011, 01:01 PM
Kosty's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 28,296
Default

On the subject of a major studio releasing a Blu-ray+DVD combo first before the DVD version, we already have that coming up soon with the latest Disney Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides release where the DVD only version is delayed 28 days and with the Disney release of African Cats which IIRC is Blu-ray only.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09-15-2011, 01:12 PM
MrAngles's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 3,388
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Taffy View Post
DVD's main selling point??? It's cheaper and has a hell-of-a-lot more titles. Go to any Walmart and check it out.
The thing is that despite DVD's large catalog and growing number of releases, the DVD sections in brick and mortar stores are shrinking, not growing. DVD sale will be higher than BD sales for a long time due to the sheer number titles available, but by the time in-store movie sections shrink down to just the new release and re-released catalog racks, the catalog advantage won't mean much. At that point it will be time for retailers to decide whether they should still dedicate space to DVD-only packages, or just leave them in the bargain bins that are positioned throughout the store.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 09-15-2011, 01:52 PM
Taffy's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,130
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
That's a really abnormal week there for the relationship for Blu-ray and DVD as its the end of summer and the release was a Tyler Perry urban comedy that is a lagging genre for Blu-ray and does better on DVD.
You're missing the point. As bad a week as it was last week for Blu ray (18 million), it still resulted in a 100 million dollar week for DVD. Hell...it's been "bad" weeks for BD software for months now while DVD still comes in better than 100 million consistently. Me thinks nearly half of that 100 million must come from stores like Walmart.

Similarly... as good as the up coming weeks (4th Q) may be for Blu ray revenue, they're much better for DVD. Just check your own charts.

I don't hold stock in BD being much of a success story down the road sales wise...not when consumers can easily rent the same newly released movie for $1 at you local Redbox kiosk and/or record that favorite HD catalog title on your DVR. That's just too much hurdle to overcome imo.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 09-15-2011, 02:15 PM
Taffy's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,130
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
On the subject of a major studio releasing a Blu-ray+DVD combo first before the DVD version, we already have that coming up soon with the latest Disney Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides release where the DVD only version is delayed 28 days and with the Disney release of African Cats which IIRC is Blu-ray only.
Nothing wrong with a studio pricing its product to take advantage of those consumer's that care more about ownership than pricing. Let 'em eat cake...as far as I'm concerned.

Personally...I think the buying trend for most OD consumers these days is to spend less...not more, but hey.....:wink:
Reply With Quote
Reply

Related Topics
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
All things Must Pass: The Rise and Fall of Tower Records on Blu-ray Jan. 19th! mattedscreen Blu-ray Software General Discussion 12 11-19-2015 08:12 PM
'All Things Fall Apart' - High-Def Digest Review Attebery Blu-ray Software General Discussion 1 02-20-2012 08:52 PM
'All Things Fall Apart' is coming February 14 Landy Blu-ray Software General Discussion 2 12-09-2011 12:43 PM
Beauty and The Beast and Lion King 3D coming Fall 2011! ing Fall 2011!!! taygan315 3D Gear & Movies 38 01-15-2011 12:03 AM


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off