What will HMM report as BD revenue market share WE 09/17/11? Thor + 2 days Star Wars - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: What will HMM report as BD revenue market share WE 09/17/11? Thor + 2 days Star Wars
50% or above Blu-ray earns more revenue than DVD for the week 2 18.18%
45-49.99% 0 0%
40-44.99% 1 9.09%
35-39.99% 3 27.27%
30-34.99% above highest Blu-ray revenue percentage ever 4 36.36%
25-29.99% around highest Blu-ray revenue of of 2011 (27.16%i) 1 9.09%
20-24.99% around average 2011 Blu-ray revenue percentage 0 0%
15-19.99% around lowest Blu-ray revenue percentage of 2011 0 0%
10-14.99% around average Blu-ray revenue percentage of 2010 0 0%
09.99% or below around the lowest percentage of 2010 0 0%
Voters: 11. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 09-14-2011, 10:41 AM
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Default What will HMM report as BD revenue market share WE 09/17/11? Thor + 2 days Star Wars

Second matching poll thread for the second week of the polling season.

What will Home Media Magazine have as a pie chart for the Blu-ray revenue percentage revenues for the week ending on Saturday September 17, 2011?
X-Men: First Class.

That will only include 2 days of Star Wars sales in the calculation as it is a Friday release and is the first full week of X-Men: First Class which was released on the Friday a week earlier.
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Old 09-17-2011, 04:13 PM
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bumped to place in sequence
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Old 09-22-2011, 07:27 PM
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bumped to give you all a chance to vote
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Old 09-22-2011, 10:59 PM
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Based off what I am seeing off the Blu-ray revenue unit marketshare off the Top 20 Sellers chart for the week I think this will be the highest Blu-ray revenue share ever.

But there is still a lot of residual DVD catalog revenues out there so I'll go with the 30-34.99% guess.

But I may not be taking into account the revenues for Star Wars given its price point. I dunno.
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Old 09-22-2011, 11:28 PM
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If your revenue guess of 90-99.99 million is correct, then BD's market share is going to be more than 35% unless DVD can somehow muster up at least 170 million of its own.
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Old 09-22-2011, 11:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
If your revenue guess of 90-99.99 million is correct, then BD's market share is going to be more than 35% unless DVD can somehow muster up at least 170 million of its own.
Yeah, you are probably right there. I can see the inconsistency.

But it might happen for DVD if there is a routine base of $90-$100 M chugging along and $35-$45 M for Thor and $25-$35 M for X-Men:First Class in the Sun-Sat stats.

Well I guess then I'm less optimistic in this poll than the other. We shall see.

Harry Potter 7.1 did about $30 M in its debut for the Mon-Sun week in The-Numbers data.
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Old 09-22-2011, 11:39 PM
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Going all out on this one too!
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Old 09-22-2011, 11:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
If your revenue guess of 90-99.99 million is correct, then BD's market share is going to be more than 35% unless DVD can somehow muster up at least 170 million of its own.
Didn't intend it to be that way, but nothing wrong with hedging one's bets I suppose. :tongue:

I did not place any rules on being logically consistent between the two poll guesses after all. :wink:

But honestly, I did not look into it that deep to see that clear inconsistency and I really did not intend to be hedging the choices.

I just see the revenue marketshare number being tougher to move because of the large mass of routine DVD sales that's in the equation. Being the best Blu-ray revenue share ever seemed reasonable for a choice.
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Old 09-23-2011, 12:48 AM
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375k Star Wars $30M
950k Thor $22M
500k Xmen $11.5M

Everything else $8M

Total BD $71.5M
Total DVD $110M

BD Revenue Share: 39.4%

Argh! It's right on the line! Well, I'll go with 35-39.99%. It all depends on how much Star Wars did.


edit: Whoa! My estimate from the other day was .5M off from my estimate today. And I was basing today's estimate on the numbers reported and was not trying in any way to get to my previous estimate:
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
Thor - $28M
Star Wars - $25M
Xmen - $6M
Everything else - $12M

Total - $71M
After the numbers and after having more time to think as well as some very helpful sales reports (we should close polls sooner btw), I'm jumping to the following conclusions:

Thor didn't do as well as I thought it would, due to its BO performance being tainted by 3D premiums.
Star Wars did better than I predicted
Xmen did better than I predicted
I think these 3 movies will cannibalize sales of the "all other" Blu-ray pool a little more than I initially predicted.

Last edited by cakefoo; 09-23-2011 at 01:04 AM.
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Old 09-23-2011, 01:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Philnerd View Post
Going all out on this one too!
I just do not share the faith yet because of the Sunday sales going to the following week yet.

I hope you are right but at the moment I do not think so.

Although I observed and the manager told me that Star Wars was outselling all projections and they completely reloaded all of the isle displays on Tuesday as they had sold out of their initial shipment.

So that's a good sign.
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