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  1. #7246
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    My narrative is actual sales numbers and trends.
    Your narrative is, you'll gladly point out that the Q3 growth Blu-ray has had could be because of a tiny increase in TBO, and you're involved in that discussion when it makes Blu-ray's growth look ever so slightly better, but then you throw a big hissy fit, whining and crying "ACTUAL SALES NUMBERS!" when the box offices are observed in times that it might reduce some of the negative perceptions.

    Don't sit here and pretend and lie right to our faces, it's discourteous.

  2. #7247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    Its not just me or HMM that made prominent mention of Avatar and the disparity in the releases in the 1st half of the year on the numbers.
    Those are all sourced from the DEG. They are a promotional organization.

  3. #7248
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    Your narrative is, you'll gladly point out that the Q3 growth Blu-ray has had could be because of a tiny increase in TBO, and you're involved in that discussion when it makes Blu-ray's growth look ever so slightly better, but then you throw a big hissy fit, whining and crying "ACTUAL SALES NUMBERS!" when the box offices are observed in times that it might reduce some of the negative perceptions.

    Don't sit here and pretend and lie right to our faces, it's discourteous.
    ROFL!

    So your problem is that I note box office lead-in strength spread across the quarter?

    hehe...


    In case you missed it, I also noted the shift in box office between Q1 and Q2. In that case it seemed to stem DVD declines but did not provide any boost to YoY growth for Blu-ray.

  4. #7249
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    Those are all sourced from the DEG. They are a promotional organization.
    They could easily fabricate the numbers then to make the growth look better then. Why not have the percentage be 50%. I find your complaints about them unethical and disingenuous to say the least.
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  5. #7250
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    ROFL!

    So your problem is that I note box office lead-in strength spread across the quarter?
    Read what I said to you on the last page and you'll realize that that assumption is wrong. Even from that post you just quoted, I was only pointing out the disparity between what you claim ("my narrative is actual sales numbers and trends") and what you actually do.

  6. #7251
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    My narrative is actual sales numbers and trends.

    Funny it seems that your narrative is to be as positive as you can be on Netflix streaming and as negative as you can be on Blu-ray and packaged media in general.


    At this point I don't see things hitting the 40% number I thought we would see this year.
    We shall see.

    Blu-ray will certainly do that with unit volume growth and if we get to 15-20% YoY cumulative YTD growth by the end of the 3Q that 40% benchmark for Blu-ray revenue growth is within reach by the end of the year taking product mix changes into the calculation.


    Even if Blu-ray ends the year at 25%-30% growth (and OD down 15%), your narrative is basically going to be "Look how much better it is than the sub 10% growth in H1". Indeed, the difference is you massage the impact of the numbers so that it is always sunny in Blu-ray land.
    With the better releases its quite possible that OD in total will be less than that.

    But even if Blu-ray's revenue growth ends up at that level that is still sustained substantial growth in the face of the the economic headwinds we are seeing this year.

    That will not be my narrative. It will be the reality that the DEG and everyone else in the home video industry including HMM Twice NPD and other analysts and pundits will acknowledge as well.

    Blu-ray is growing faster than digital and its growth in this economy is certainly a "sunny" story and it will be better in the second half of the year than the first because of many factors that we have discussed.




    What you call doom and gloom, I call the reality of relatively low growth in light of the very large DVD market that Blu-ray is cannibalizing from. Most of the time I have been commenting here has been in the midst of single digit Blu-ray growth from a sub $2 billion yearly base. Forgive me if I do not find that impressive.
    That's twaddle and piffle. Of course Blu-ray is taking sales from DVD so is everything else.

    You continue to try and project that 10% growth to the future. That's not the case. Already in the 3Q to date its already improved by several points and in the next four months it will improve even more.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty
    Its the unopposed tentpole major releases from 2010 that have caused the inflection points in the YoY stats.

    Twilght: New Moon, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland and to a lessor degree Clash of the Titans all are the big TBO impacts that did not have any good matches against them in 2011.


    Effectively after Avatar comparison week the cumulative YoY YTD comparison went all the way down to +8.09% gain YoY. Then Alice in Wonderland piled on unopposed as well in the week ending 6/05/11 that dropped the YoY stat down to +7.00% in the HMM revenue numbers.

    Yikes.

    But since that time with the TBO pretty much bouncing around even for June July and August Blu-ray has steadily gained back ground.

    Pretty much ever since then with the exception of the Clash of the Titans comparison week Blu-ray has steadily gained back about half to one percent in that cumulative YTD YoY metric going from a low of 7.00% to its current 12.95% in 11 weeks.

    We may make it to 15-20% by the end of the 3Q where it almost looks like 20% would be the natural Blu-ray YoY gain if it was not for those lopsided major release disparity.

    But that will shift the other way in the 4Q as this fall should be more favorable if not in TBO at least in the Blu-ray friendly genre matchups.



    Code:
    week   Date             CumYoY%  Change from previous week
    
    1	01/09/11	18.60%	n/a
    2	01/16/11	22.49%	+3.89%
    3	01/23/11	20.11%	-2.37%
    4	01/30/11	22.03%	+1.92%
    5	02/06/11	19.69%	-2.34%
    6	02/13/11	17.78%	-1.91%
    7	02/20/11	18.81%	+1.03%
    8	02/27/11	22.38%	+3.57%
    9	03/06/11	24.09%	+1.71%
    10	03/13/11	23.25%	-0.84%
    11	03/20/11	16.68%	-6.56%  Twilight: New Moon
    12	03/27/11	 8.09%	-8.60%  Twilight: New Moon
    13	04/03/11	 9.49%	+1.40%  Tangled
    14	04/10/11	15.18%	+5.69%  Tron:Legacy  
    15	04/17/11	23.01%	+7.83%  Harry Potter 7.1 
    16	04/24/11	15.26%	-7.75%  Avatar  
    17	05/01/11	10.96%	-4.30%  Avatar 
    18	05/08/11	10.10%	-0.86%
    19	05/15/11	 9.43%	-0.66%
    20	05/22/11	 9.35%	-0.08%
    21	05/29/11	 9.85%	+0.49%
    22	06/05/11	 7.00%	-2.85%  Alice in Wonderland
    23	06/12/11	 7.21%	+0.21%
    24	06/19/11	 7.76%	+0.55%
    25	06/26/11	 8.13%	+0.37%
    26	07/03/11	 9.09%	+0.96%
    27	07/10/11	 9.40%	+0.31%
    28	07/17/11	10.39%	+1.00%
    29	07/24/11	11.20%	+0.80%
    30	07/31/11	10.65%	-0.55%  Clash of the Titans
    31	08/07/11	11.30%	+0.65%
    32	08/14/11	12.07%	+0.77%
    33	08/21/11	12.95%	+0.88%
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
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  7. #7252
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    FUCKING READ what I said to you on the last page and you'll realize that that assumption is wrong.
    I read what you said.

    You are asserting I don't take box office lead-in into account.

    That is incorrect. It is the entire reason I created the Summer Box Office thread. Those numbers will impact Q4. By all accounts, the summer was a strong one although there was nothing that hit the $400 million mark this year. I have lost count of the number of times I have stated that releases matter. They do, and they have an impact on Home Video.


    Likewise, I do note the box office spread over time. I may comment on the week to week shifts (as releases matter) but the longer term impact is generally more interesting (month to month or quarter to quarter). Big titles will cause blips, but those level off over time (certainly across quarters and halves).


    You seem to be frustrated with the fact that you are simply wrong about me not taking box office lead-in into account. Shrug. That is for you to deal with.

  8. #7253
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    My narrative is actual sales numbers and trends.

    .
    Quote Originally Posted by TheAnalogKid View Post
    You aren't fooling anyone. Why even say something like this? This may be one of your most comical statements you have ever uttered around here.

    No, your narrative is that of a streaming apologist who has an almost physical disdain for high-definition media on a disc. The threads you create, the posts you make - they all dovetail into a certain digital culture that is widely disappointed in the consumer acceptance of the wares you support and/or sell. You project your anger and disappointment over a format onto other forms of entertainment that are gaining in acceptance.

    And that is fine..there is nothing wrong with that. I'm just pointing it out.
    In case you do not notice other people clearly observe your biases even if you pretend they do not exist.

    You are not fooling anyone here in your obvious advocacy of Netflix streaming and digital cloud based services and your pessimistic bias against packaged media and Blu-ray.
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  9. #7254
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    Funny it seems that your narrative is to as positive as you can be on Netflix streaming and as negative as you can be on Blu-ray and packaged media in general.
    Kosty,

    Tell me the relative growth of Netflix streaming and Blu-ray and packaged media since I have been posting here? Now tell me how Home Video sell through has fared in general during that time?


    My views directly align with actual market performance. There are individuals and groups who seem to hate that actual performance to be discussed. They lash out at me because my views align with the actual market performance.

  10. #7255
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    I read what you said.

    You are asserting I don't take box office lead-in into account.

    That is incorrect. It is the entire reason I created the Summer Box Office thread. Those numbers will impact Q4. By all accounts, the summer was a strong one although there was nothing that hit the $400 million mark this year. I have lost count of the number of times I have stated that releases matter. They do, and they have an impact on Home Video.


    Likewise, I do note the box office spread over time. I may comment on the week to week shifts (as releases matter) but the longer term impact is generally more interesting (month to month or quarter to quarter). Big titles will cause blips, but those level off over time (certainly across quarters and halves).


    You seem to be frustrated with the fact that you are simply wrong about me not taking box office lead-in into account. Shrug. That is for you to deal with.
    No, I'm upset that you are pretending like the effect Avatar had was insignificant, even though the graph shows clearly the cumulative YTD YOY growth decline that it suffered. So now you're saying Avatar didn't have an impact over the 6 month period despite the clear visual representation of the facts right in your face. This FALSE basis for which you now CLAIM you are pure and consistent in your box office analysis. Instead of a hypocrite, you're now covering your tracks, implying that Avatar's effect "leveled off over time" when in reality Avatar was a huge dip in the YOY stat and that IS taking all 4 months of the beginning of the year into account because it IS a cumulative YTD YOY graph. And since its effect lasted a few weeks, it wound up rounding out closer to the end of the first half, which did not leave H1 2011 much time to level off due to the fact the middle of the year weeks are slow and unexciting.
    Last edited by cakefoo; 08-31-2011 at 03:00 PM. Reason: meant "H1 2011" instead of "2011"

  11. #7256
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    No, I'm upset that you are pretending like the effect Avatar had was insignificant,
    Then you are getting upset for nothing.

    What I am saying is that Avatar happened. It was released and had an impact. It cannot be swept away because it does not help Blu-ray. Indeed, I was the one noting it's impact on both Q2 and H1:


    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    And again, it is interesting here because the sheer scope of revenue collected in April (2010 and 2011) will have a lasting impact on Q2 and even H1 (to a lesser extent).
    Meanwhile, Kosty was downplaying it at the time:

    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    Just glancing at the data I have already for 4/23 next week, I'm not sure if the YTY hit for Avatar week last year is going to be that bad. We have Easter sales and the first Sunday and the first full week of the new Harry Potter that fall into that week so thats something. Plus the base rate of Blu-ray catalog sales is much higher as a base as well this year compared to last year. But next week may be revised up or done for last years Blu-ray sales for Avatar so I dunno.

    Then we have The Green Hornet as a great Blu-ray title and this possible Best Buy promotion....
    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    Now after the head to head Avatar week I still have Blu-ray as year to date up +21.46% in the year to year revenue matchup through week 16, three weeks into the 2Q. Thats more than double what it was at the end of Q1 2010 in the DEG report.

    I am consistent with the data. I don't post spin or pre spin. I acknowledge the data for what it is and don't try to sweep away it's impact.
    Last edited by PSound; 08-31-2011 at 03:24 PM.

  12. #7257
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    Interesting to go back and read some of the comments right after the Avatar comparison week.

    Gives some great perspective to the current discussion:

    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    Thanks Bruce and Kosty for getting the data together!

    Very solid week for OD!

    I have been stating end of April is going to important due to sheer volume. Not quite there yet, but with Blu-rays success with the big April titles I don't expect too much of a shift from this:



    I don't think Q2 will end overall YoY growth more than a few percentages points growth from the end of April. Right now that is probably around 15-20% for H1. I don't even see things shifting too much from there for Q3, but let's see if there are any unexpected big catalog titles announced. Right now the box office lead-on from Q1 looks rather soft and I expect Thor will be held for a Q4 release.
    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    Same comments as above, but different baseline. Looks like the new numbers are:

    Blu-ray up +15.26% YTD.

    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    I am not seeing any title that would generate enough volume to push things up significantly on any given week. Let's see where things settle in over the next few months.

    The $20-$25 million average does not seem unreasonable, but I don't see that getting the YoY growth above 20% growth before H1.




    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    The comparison weeks in 2010 get easier now.

    Also, even though we are 1/3rd of the calendar year the last three or four months of the year are at a much higher volume, so we really are at 1/5th or 1/6th through the yearly volumes.

    Plenty of year left to go.

    After Avatar week, this is the lowest point anticipated against the 2010 performance all the way until the 4Q so there should be substantial gains from that 15.26% gain.

    That 15.26% gain right now right after Avatar week is probably the floor for that metric all the way until the 4Q and probably the lowest it will be for the entire year. We all knew that right after Avatar would be the worst comparison time for that metric, so there is no surprise there at all.



    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    You are looking at it the wrong way. Look at the 2010 results between now and September 2010. There are no significant high volume weeks there at all for significant downward results in that metric. Its very likely that 2011 weeks will now steadily accumulate year to year gains that will do nothing but steadily push that metric up.

    Even low box performance release weeks now still will beat the remaining 2Q 2010 and 3Q 2010 weeks for the most part and any higher performing title release weeks have a chance to substantially dominate the 2010 comparison week by a significant margin.

    There is a chance for a significant gain both in the 2Q 2011 over 2Q 2012 numbers as well as in the 1H 2011 (1Q+2Q 2011) over 1H 2010 (1Q+2Q 2010) revenue numbers as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    We might be above 20% YTD YTY growth after we get the results of The Green Hornet sales in a couple weeks.

    I do not think that $20-$25 M for Blu-ray will be the average. If anything I think that will be the floor and the average and many individual weeks will be far above that.

    Right now the YTD average for Blu-ray revenues is $32.63 M. If just that was maintained through the 2Q 2011 period, the YTD YTY growth rate at the end of 2Q 2011 would be substantially above 20%.



    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    Without box office lead-in, what makes you believe that Q2 and Q3 will not be soft just like 2010?



    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    I just do not think that Blu-ray revenues will substantially decline this year in the rest of the 2Q and 3Q as they did this year because of increased retail support, a higher user base, higher marketshare of new releases and a greater amount of Blu-ray catalog and new releases in 2011 over 2010.

    I see the lowest period in 1Q 2011 as being the lowest period for 2Q and 3Q as it was pretty much was last year.

    The difference is that point this year is a much higher floor than it was last year.

    We shall see.

    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    I hear what you are saying, but those charts also show that the relative weakness of Q2 and Q3 is weaker than Q1. As a result it is likely that Blu-rays lowest week for 2011 is ahead of it.

    Again, we shall see.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    We shall see but there are a lot more positive factors in play for Blu-ray this year and even the lowest 1Q 2011 week for Blu-ray without releases is still going to look pretty good against the rest of the 2Q and 3Q 2010 weeks.

    3Q 2010 especially sucked for no new Blu-ray releases and thats not going to be the case this year.


    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    I am guessing there will be at least 2 weeks in Q2 and Q3 that are lower than the lowest week in Q1.

    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    My forecast for Q2-Q3

    Last year the Q1 low (week 15?) turned out to equal the Q2-Q3 average. If history repeats itself then the average week in Q2-Q3 2011 will be at or near that green line, a +40-60% YOY growth.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    Thats about where I see Q2 and Q3 but I did not look in detail at the summer releases going into Q4.

    That assessment looks pretty reasonable to me.
    Last edited by PSound; 08-31-2011 at 03:47 PM.

  13. #7258
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    I am consistent with the data. I don't post spin or pre spin. I acknowledge the data for what it is and don't try to sweep away it's impact.
    You only focus on releases when it suits you, like in these recent Q3 weeks of Blu-ray growth of 30%+.

    You don't want to focus on the impact of releases when it's a large scale release like Avatar that impacted the entire first half.

    Using Kosty's bias to offset your bias does not make you unbiased, lol.

  14. #7259
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    You only focus on releases when it suits you, like in these recent Q3 weeks of Blu-ray growth of 30%+.

    You don't want to focus on the impact of releases when it's a large scale release like Avatar that impacted the entire first half.

    Using Kosty's bias to offset your bias does not make you unbiased, lol.
    This was your prediction for Q2 and Q3 knowing full well the impact of Avatar:

    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    My forecast for Q2-Q3

    Last year the Q1 low (week 15?) turned out to equal the Q2-Q3 average. If history repeats itself then the average week in Q2-Q3 2011 will be at or near that green line, a +40-60% YOY growth.
    What you are doing now is using Avatar for post performance spin. I want to point out that this prediction you made was AFTER the Avatar comparison week.


    Your prediction was off, not because of Avatar. But because you grossly estimated the average weeks growth POST Avatar.

  15. #7260
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    Quote Originally Posted by PSound View Post
    This was your prediction for Q2 and Q3 knowing full well the impact of Avatar:



    What you are doing now is using Avatar for post performance spin. I want to point out that this prediction you made was AFTER the Avatar comparison week.


    Your prediction was off, not because of Avatar. But because you grossly estimated the average weeks growth POST Avatar.
    Oh? Care to show me where I said I meant YTD? I said the average of the Q2-Q3 weeks, and I was not far off, as the middle of June til now has been around the 35% region.

    And I was just doing a very, very simple prediction based on the floor of one week in the Q1 or Q2. Not rocket science at all, and I made that clear how I got to that number and that it wasn't something I put any thought into.


    :edited

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