What will be the pie chart revenue % for Toy Story 3 release week ending 11/07/10 - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: What will be the Blu-ray format's pie chart revenue % marketshare 11/07 Toy Story 3
27% or higher best Blu-ray revenue marketshare ever by 4% 3 27.27%
25-26% highest Blu-ray revenue share ever by 2% 0 0%
23-24% beats highest ever Blu-ray revenue share of 22.37% Avatar 4/25 1 9.09%
21-22% about what BatB Avatar's release week did with its BD+DVD combo 2 18.18%
19-20% a little below Christmas week 12/27/09 2 18.18%
17-18% about what Iron Man 2 10/03/10 or Star Trek did 11/22/09 2 18.18%
15-16% about what Alice in Wonderland did 6/06/10 1 9.09%
13-14% about what Clash of the Titans did 8/01/10 0 0%
11-12% around the 3Q 2010 avg of 12.15% 0 0%
10% or below about the worst of 3Q 2010 0 0%
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  #1  
Old 11-07-2010, 12:53 AM
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Default What will be the pie chart revenue % for Toy Story 3 release week ending 11/07/10

Try to keep the comments in this thread to be more about you explanations on your votes here on the revenue marketshare pie chart. Try to keep more general comments in the main thread if you please.

General discussion for this weeks sales here in the main poll revenue discussion thread:

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...story-3-a.html




sorry the previous attempt did not have the poll attached
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Old 11-07-2010, 01:00 AM
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Historical trends, I'm updating these with last week ending 10/31/10 in a little bit






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Old 11-07-2010, 06:15 AM
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bumped

I added this new thread as the poll was not activated before:
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Old 11-07-2010, 06:21 AM
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I'm guessing this will be around the pie chart we had for Avatar as the growth in Blu-ray marketshare for this big title will cancel out the rise in DVD units sold for the better seasonality of a November release instead of a April release. Avatar had a big box office adbantage as well but Toy Story 3 is in 4Q now not the 2Q.
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Old 11-07-2010, 12:58 PM
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Blu-ray needs like $90 million just to hit estimates. So i'll go with the biggest number. Of course, even if it hits 5%, it'll still be considered a hit and we can just shout "NEXT WEEK WILL BE HUGE" from the rooftops. So yeah, 27%. Q4. 2010. 21+ Million BD players. Why shouldn't it be 27%?
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Old 11-07-2010, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Blu-ray needs like $90 million just to hit estimates. So i'll go with the biggest number. Of course, even if it hits 5%, it'll still be considered a hit and we can just shout "NEXT WEEK WILL BE HUGE" from the rooftops. So yeah, 27%. Q4. 2010. 21+ Million BD players. Why shouldn't it be 27%?
Well, this is why just revenue isn't enough to say if it is a good or bad week. A good revenue week for BD in light of a even better DVD revenue will just show a weak marketshare and that's worse IMHO in regards to BD then going strictly via revenue.

That being said, I think animated films tend to do better than chick flicks so I think it will do better than sex and the city but less then avatars week.
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Old 11-07-2010, 05:39 PM
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It may not be 27% if the DVD units are huge. Which it will be , like for Avatar week. But I do not think 27% is unreasonable either.

But I think its going to be just a little bit better than what Avatar did (22.37%) , or at least around the same.

It being the 4Q and all the number of units sold to families is going to be huge here as well.
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Old 11-07-2010, 07:10 PM
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Well, BATB did 100% on Blu-ray, so why can't TS3 do 27%+? Unless a big chunk of that 100% were from DVD buyers *cough* *cough*
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Old 11-07-2010, 07:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Well, BATB did 100% on Blu-ray, so why can't TS3 do 27%+? Unless a big chunk of that 100% were from DVD buyers *cough* *cough*
Well you know that comparison is absurd. Obviously a significant portion of Beauty and the Beast and even Toy Story and Toy Story 2 Blu-ray+DVD sales earlier in the year went to people that did not have a Blu-ray player yet or would have bought a cheaper DVD version if they had an alternative.

But, zoom golly gee whiz, thats not the point now isn't it. The strategy seems to remarkably successful for Disney now, not only increasing Blu-ray unit sales and revenues, but in encouraging consumers to migrate to Blu-ray and in selling more premium margin units.

Like I said, I think 27% or more is not unreasonable and you may be more accurate in your guess than mine. It would not shock me it the marketshare for was that high as the title will dominate next weeks sales statistics.

But there is also a routine base of $100 million or so in routine DVD sales revenues happening each week, no matter if there is a major release or no, while its probably only $15 M now as a base for Blu-ray. So in any ratio metric, there is that large mass of routine DVD revenues in the denominator.

Now if we are talking about the units or revenues from the Top 20 Sellers thats another thing entirely as thats more apples to apples. Thats going to be much higher than the overall format revenue marketshare percentage.
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Old 11-07-2010, 10:18 PM
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With the amount of promotion TS3 had and the $8 coupon, 27%+ seems about right. It's one of the few Animated films I would actually buy (aside from the recent 3D titles). Unlike Princess and the Frog or other Disney fodder, I think TS3 (all of them actually), can appeal to every generation.

Plus, it's not like it had much in the ways of competition either.
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