Will Blu-ray software revenue (2011) be higher than VHS software revenue (2004)? - Page 6 - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: Will Blu-ray software revenue (2011) be higher than VHS software revenue (2004)?
Yes 2 22.22%
No 7 77.78%
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  #51  
Old 01-16-2011, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by PSound View Post
DVD went from $2.4 billion to $5.3 billion in a year when VHS went from in a year when VHS went from $11.4 billion to $10.9 billion.

What folks are saying is that it is inconceivable (and unfair) to expect Blu-ray to go from $2.3 billion to $4.5 Billion in 2011. A year in which DVD is starting at $14 billion and likely to drop at least $1.5 billion.
Realize that DVD going from $2.4B to $5.3B was mostly sell-through. VHS probably lost nothing in terms of sell-through, but lost a lot in rentals as people began to own movies they used to rent.

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  #52  
Old 01-16-2011, 02:51 PM
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This is basically a double whammy for the studios now. Durring the vhs to dvd switchover people started buying movies like crazy. Now with the dvd to bd switchover people are going from buying to renting. Not good at all. Couple that in with the increasing time spent on browsing and blogging on the internet and its a no brainer that home video market is never going to be where it was. If 3d doesnt end up saving the theaters it could be really bad for Hollywood in the next decade IMO.

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Originally Posted by comixguru View Post
Realize that DVD going from $2.4B to $5.3B was mostly sell-through. VHS probably lost nothing in terms of sell-through, but lost a lot in rentals as people began to own movies they used to only be able to rent.
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  #53  
Old 01-16-2011, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
So basically in a nutshell when they claimed last week that bd is ahead of dvd at this point in time they are hiding it. They are way behind in hardware sales and software sales.
Well duh. What do you think CES is? It's to promote and market products. Does anyone really think they will come out and say what a failure porduct X was? Even Samsung and such were hiding GoogleTV products because of poor sales, but they didn't outright say "We are not displaying it because it's doing bad". Just like what Samsung did in 2008 when Warner went Blu - they hid their second generation Combo player even though it was going to be a showcase item just mere hours/day before.
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  #54  
Old 01-16-2011, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
Even if you use the non-adjusted numbers DVD did not make up for lost VHS revenue. You own chart shows it. 2004 was the peak.
I get your point, now. After 8 years of unprecedented growth and revolutionary change to the entire home entertainment marketplace, DVD peaked. DVD took home video sell through a small part of the marketplace to the focus of the industry allowing sell through for the first time to surpass box office revenue (previous only done by rentals). DVD created a frenzy of movie collecting that for the first time had movie buying surpassing books, music, and games.

I don't see how that compares to Blu-rays and the last three years of unprecedented declines in sell through. With movie sell through slipping lower and lower in the overall market. Maybe it's like a compare and contrast thing.
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  #55  
Old 01-16-2011, 03:04 PM
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Its actually quite amusing seeing this hype hit high gear when everything proves otherwise. What I cant wait for is to see how the studios handle the shrinking physical market and the massive switchover to renting. I want to see walmart flex their muscle as they pretty much own the OD market now. They have a good relationship with redbox so I hope to see them expand that as it makes sense. Walmart is where the average shopper goes and bargin bin hunting is done. Its good to have big companies that sell things cheap. This is why I cant wait to see blockbuster close even more doors.
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  #56  
Old 01-17-2011, 12:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by comixguru View Post
I get your point, now. After 8 years of unprecedented growth and revolutionary change to the entire home entertainment marketplace, DVD peaked. DVD took home video sell through a small part of the marketplace to the focus of the industry allowing sell through for the first time to surpass box office revenue (previous only done by rentals). DVD created a frenzy of movie collecting that for the first time had movie buying surpassing books, music, and games.

I don't see how that compares to Blu-rays and the last three years of unprecedented declines in sell through. With movie sell through slipping lower and lower in the overall market. Maybe it's like a compare and contrast thing.
No, you don't see my point. I never realized that home video total revenue peaked before DVD revenue peaked. It is not a diss or a slam against DVD. It is just an interesting metric.

There will never be anything like DVD again in the consumer space for home video. Blu-Ray won't be able to capture the revenue numbers and digital will never come close as it is looking to be mostly a platform for renting much like VHS was.
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  #57  
Old 01-17-2011, 02:00 AM
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Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
digital will never come close as it is looking to be mostly a platform for renting much like VHS was.
It is far too early to make that statement. UltraViolet will be the first cross-industry effort to boost EST.

Even without UltraViolet, EST was at $683 million in 2010.
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