Will Blu-ray software revenue (2011) be higher than VHS software revenue (2004)? - Page 3 - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: Will Blu-ray software revenue (2011) be higher than VHS software revenue (2004)?
Yes 2 22.22%
No 7 77.78%
Voters: 9. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 01-14-2011, 04:50 PM
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It all depends on the rental revenue. The rental revenue is a hard guess because we dont know if blockbuster will last and if $1.5 rentals pick up or how netflix decides to report income from vod or OD.

Edit: I just saw that vhs was over $4 billion so I say an easy no way in hell.
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  #22  
Old 01-14-2011, 09:48 PM
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This poll makes no sense at all. WTF is the point of it.
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  #23  
Old 01-14-2011, 11:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jiggawhat View Post
This poll makes no sense at all. WTF is the point of it.
I have to agree with it.

It's like a poll like:

Next year, will you be able to eat 10000000000000 hotdogs?

I generally think this would be impossible and fairly obvious of an answer. Perhaps Psound is trying to ferret out easy fodder for smackdown?
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  #24  
Old 01-15-2011, 01:10 AM
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So is the complaint that Blu-ray simply has no way in 2011 to match the revenue of VHS in 2004?
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  #25  
Old 01-15-2011, 01:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
So is the complaint that Blu-ray simply has no way in 2011 to match the revenue of VHS in 2004?
What is the comparison between BD in 2011 versus VHS in 2004?
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  #26  
Old 01-15-2011, 01:25 AM
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LOL - you could have picked as the comparitor, 1988's Total USA BO. It was $4.46B.

That was the year BTW that the Home Video Market first exceeded the BO - $5.15B
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  #27  
Old 01-15-2011, 01:52 AM
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So before the numbers were presented, would your gut have guessed that VHS in 2004 would have been higher or lower than what Blu-ray will do in 2011?


I think it is an interesting comparison and a great perspective on where the industry is today compared to even just 6 years ago. If you would have asked most folks here about VHS in 2004, and they would have said it was irrelevant.

Ask them about Blu-ray in 2011 and they would have said it was huge (look at the discussion about 2010 numbers being so phenomenal).

But very few seem to want to even acknowledge that VHS in 2004 was a bigger contributor in software revenue than Blu-ray will likely be in 2011. Kind of puts a whole new perspective on a metric like "65% marketshare" for a single title.
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  #28  
Old 01-15-2011, 02:44 AM
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Huh? What was the point again?

You are trying to compare the declining revenues of VHS with universal household penetration that was being replaced by DVD to the ascending revenues of Blu-ray moving in the opposite direction?

Better question would be to match up 2010 Blu-ray revenues to the best matching growth year to in DVD lifecycle and then to the next year in the growth phase in both formats?

Who cares if Blu-ray revenues were to a declining legacy sales rate of VHS in any year?
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  #29  
Old 01-15-2011, 04:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
So before the numbers were presented, would your gut have guessed that VHS in 2004 would have been higher or lower than what Blu-ray will do in 2011?
LOL - no reason to guess. i have a bunch of links with the data already there. Original and Played-With.

Quote:
I think it is an interesting comparison and a great perspective on where the industry is today compared to even just 6 years ago. If you would have asked most folks here about VHS in 2004, and they would have said it was irrelevant.
It was. VHS was falling by 50% per year, total revenue. Why keep track of something that is going off a cliff? It's decline was on railroad tracks . . . no deviation . . . it was heading right for zero revenue.

Quote:
Ask them about Blu-ray in 2011 and they would have said it was huge (look at the discussion about 2010 numbers being so phenomenal).
LOL - well the relevance of that would depend on which side of the fence you are standing on.

Quote:
But very few seem to want to even acknowledge that VHS in 2004 was a bigger contributor in software revenue than Blu-ray will likely be in 2011. Kind of puts a whole new perspective on a metric like "65% marketshare" for a single title.
In 2004, over 80% of USA HH's had a VCR. In 2011, BD may reach 30%. Big difference
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  #30  
Old 01-15-2011, 05:00 AM
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Take a look at the DEG's end of year 2004 report:

http://www.dvdinformation.com/news/press/CES010605.htm

They barely mention VHS.
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