What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013? - Page 3 - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?
15% or more! Bluray is going to take off and have a second wind! 2 9.52%
10% to 14% 4 19.05%
5% to 9% about the same as 2012 4 19.05%
1% to 4% 9 42.86%
Flat. No growth. 0 0%
Negative. Bluray will make less in 2013 than in 2012 2 9.52%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
The OWNERSHIP pie is getting smaller, not the OPTICAL DISC pie alone. Rentals are up, streaming is up. If people really were just sick of plastic discs, then digital movie purchases would be skyrocketing ala DVD's inception.

This isn't JUST a disc smackdown forum guys.
Umm, total sell through is down only 2.9% thanks to digital, which actually outgrew Blu-ray last year in net revenue gain. So EST actually covered more of DVD's attrition than did BLu-ray. Digital is now 8.8% of total sell through (meaning OD is the other 91.2%) after growing 35% last year. OD sell through itself was down 8% last year.
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  #22  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
You're right. Economy is squeezing people. Obamacare, inflation, etc...the money pie in general is gone. People are tighter with money more than ever before and buying a disc / candy / magazine off the rank in the aisle is happening less and less.
Still beating that ecomony drum. Face it, the economy is recovering, but OD is not following suit. Meaning: OD was not down because of the economy to begin with, but by other, much stronger forces that accompany every format when it reaches saturation. Consumers have never considered Blu-ray a separate format but rather as an add-on for DVD. Even the DEG report itself doesn't bother to separate out Blu-ray vs. DVD revenue. It's "optical disc" to them.
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  #23  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
What's really funny is that Blu-ray's growth can even be measured in pixels. Is growth so small that you need a magnifying glass when it's stacked against its predecessors?
You mean vs dvd right and possibly vhs?

Obviously, against laser disc (a predecessor) or mini disc (a predecessor) or betamax (another predecessor) it would be a bit more apparent.

All things are relative the way I see it.
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  #24  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Still beating that ecomony drum. Face it, the economy is recovering, but OD is not following suit. Meaning: the two are not related.
We all know this will end up being where everything ends up going re: digital. It can only really go up. The question is how fast.

Optical disc will die eventually. Obviously this won't happen anytime soon. Blu-ray will essentially be around until that happens.
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  #25  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Still beating that ecomony drum. Face it, the economy is recovering, but OD is not following suit. Meaning: the two are not related.
Do you really think economy is recovering? [email protected]
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  #26  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
You mean vs dvd right and possibly vhs?

Obviously, against laser disc (a predecessor) or mini disc (a predecessor) or betamax (another predecessor) it would be a bit more apparent.

All things are relative the way I see it.
Obviously Blu-ray can't be expected to match DVD's success, but come on, it's already peaking at less than 20% of DVD's peak? And less than half of VHS peak? And VHS was 70% rental and as such had yearly sell through + rental revenue that were fairly close to DVD, believe it or not. Especially so when you factor in inflation.

I don't know what laser disc did, but it was a niche format. Blu-ray is a niche format to a lesser extent. It's market share against DVD is only growing by 4 percent a year and is still less than 30%. Do the math, which will come first: BLu-ray overtakes DVD or OD itself is less than 25% of total sell through?
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  #27  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
Do you really think economy is recovering? [email protected]
It is in the US. I'm in construction and it's busy as hell. Housing prices are rising and that the key thing to any recovery. Unemployment has been declining for years.
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  #28  
Old 02-06-2013, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
It is in the US. I'm in construction and it's busy as hell. Housing prices are rising and that the key thing to any recovery. Unemployment has been declining for years.
I'm in my iPhone but this is the important stuff about economy that I wanted to relate.
1- GDP contracted last quarter, another contraction this quarter is recession.
2 - Obamacare is going to cost 7 million people their healthcare insurance and a lot of those will be people loosing full time jobs to either getting let go or going part time.
3- fiscal cliff and inflation is going to hit us. Furloughing the government isn't an option so expect inflation to pick up more.
4 - middle class in light of more jobs is actually shrinking because the job growth is lower skilled and paying jobs.
5- people's buying habits especially for impulse buying don't come back after economy returns to normal. I would not expect people to buy like they did before the economy tanked.

There are links for all of the above I will post them later if you want. If you really think that the economy isn't related to consumer spending on non necessary items then show me your links.

Necessary items food shelter transportation health.
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  #29  
Old 02-06-2013, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Obviously Blu-ray can't be expected to match DVD's success, but come on, it's already peaking at less than 20% of DVD's peak? And less than half of VHS peak? And VHS was 70% rental and as such had yearly sell through + rental revenue that were fairly close to DVD, believe it or not. Especially so when you factor in inflation.

I don't know what laser disc did, but it was a niche format. Blu-ray is a niche format to a lesser extent. It's market share against DVD is only growing by 4 percent a year and is still less than 30%. Do the math, which will come first: BLu-ray overtakes DVD or OD itself is less than 25% of total sell through?
Well, my point is that you were comparing to DVD and you generalized to predecessors and I don't think that's an accurate portrayal.

As much as sales only account for sub 30 percent, we do know on drill down that it's sales are dependent on day/date releases and certain genres. Obviously catalog is lackluster and so is straight up drama etc but that being said the sales percentage in other areas and market presense makes it mainstream.

I don't think bluray is in anyway a niche product at this time.
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  #30  
Old 02-06-2013, 02:47 PM
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I voted 1-4%. Blu-Ray is 7 years old this year and I think we will continue to see prices drop as the market is more saturated which will result in lower growth. There are a few events that could trigger more growth with one of them being the studios pushing more combo packs and phasing out DVD day and date and catalog titles in favor of combo packs. I don't see them doing it, but it is a potential scenario.

One thing is for certain. It will be a very long transition from optical media to digital based on the numbers we have. Optical still has a huge slice of the overall pie and 4K could extend the life of Blu-Ray if the industry decides to use the format as the physical medium for 4K.
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