What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013? - Page 2 - High-Def Digest Forums
View Poll Results: What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?
15% or more! Bluray is going to take off and have a second wind! 2 9.52%
10% to 14% 4 19.05%
5% to 9% about the same as 2012 4 19.05%
1% to 4% 9 42.86%
Flat. No growth. 0 0%
Negative. Bluray will make less in 2013 than in 2012 2 9.52%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #11  
Old 02-06-2013, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Wendell R Breland View Post
Without knowing what titles are on tap to be release this year (or any year), the appeal and cost of those titles how can you even attempt a educated guess as to the total sales for the year?
By seeing where Blu-ray has been and where it's going, via the growth curve. The selling power or appeal of titles released on Blu-ray are, on average, directly proportional to how well it did in theaters, and total box office in any given year doesn't vary by more than 5-10 percent or so. Last year it was up about 2 percent, the year before down around 8 percent.

Here is where Blu-ray is going.

Launches aligned. Year 1 is 1997 for DVD and 2006 for Blu-ray. Year 7 is 2003 for DVD and 2012 for Blu-ray. Revenue is in billions.


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As to YoY %, as the total unit sales numbers increase in sales why do you folks expect to see very much of an increase in terms of “percentage”? Going from 1 million to 2 million (100% growth in unit sales) can be relatively easy. Going from 250 million to 270 million (8% growth in unit sales) may prove to be very difficult. The average cost for older BD titles continues to decline so the unit sales could be up but the revenue could be down. Last time I checked Amazon had > 1300 BD titles for ≤ $10.00
Who is expecting much an increase in the YoY? Certainly not anyone who has voted in the poll. DVD grew by 45% in it's "2013" year, but Blu-ray is not DVD and never really took off to begin with. Heck, even VHS had over double sell-through sales ($5.3 billion at its peak in 1996) revenue than does Blu-ray. So it looks like everyone's expectations have been tempered drastically. No one by now thinks BLu-ray will ever amount to much.

The average price for Blu-ray was down around 8 percent last year and DVD a little less. With lower prices you sell more units to sometimes get more revenue, sometimes not. The consumer will ultimately dictate the price, unless studios decide to limit quantities or do what Disney does and keep their catalogs OOP for several years before coming out with a reissue. It looks like no studio is willing to throttle the supply side to achieve higher prices though.
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  #12  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
I have no idea, therefore I won't vote.

You can stream unlimited movies and TV shows for a quarter of the year for the same price you'd pay for one Blu-ray disc. That's why streaming is so popular.
I'm shocked!!



Not...
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  #13  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendell R Breland View Post
Without knowing what titles are on tap to be release this year (or any year), the appeal and cost of those titles how can you even attempt a educated guess as to the total sales for the year?

As to YoY %, as the total unit sales numbers increase in sales why do you folks expect to see very much of an increase in terms of “percentage”? Going from 1 million to 2 million (100% growth in unit sales) can be relatively easy. Going from 250 million to 270 million (8% growth in unit sales) may prove to be very difficult. The average cost for older BD titles continues to decline so the unit sales could be up but the revenue could be down. Last time I checked Amazon had > 1300 BD titles for ≤ $10.00

My prediction: Skyfall and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will do quite well.

There is no big mystery about DVD and Blu-ray sales. If there are titles made available that folks want and at a price they are willing to pay then sales do quite well, if not then sales do poorly.
Wendell, It's just a fun thing we have been doing here for awhile. I base my vote on past performance and how I feel Bluray has been doing in sales. I nailed it for 2012. Maybe it was a lucky guess? Maybe I have a good feel for the market because of the great job from guys like Kosty and Bruce and reading various reports. It's not to be taken too seriously. A few guys don't like voting because they just don't want to be wrong for some reason.
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  #14  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by silverado View Post
I believe that 4% is optimistic, but let's shoot for the stars. 4% is my guess.
I think your vote is a smart vote. I was tempted to vote like yourself. One of my rules was to just half the percentage because thats kinda been the norm for Bluray. But I have a feeling it may drop off quicker this year as streaming becomes more mainstream for consumers and catalog has dried up. Add in the continuing price drops on Bluray movies and 2013 just might be a negative year for Bluray sell through.
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  #15  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
I'm shocked!!



Not...
Why are you shocked?
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  #16  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Clearly Blu-ray is not a repeat of DVD. But what's funny is how we need to have these ravenous fanboy debates about if that pink link will be 1 pixel higher or TWO pixels higher next year.
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  #17  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:36 PM
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Blu-ray will continue to steadily cannibalize DVD. I believe the rate of change will be probably high enough to offset the price erosion. But I also think this will be a growth year still.

I hope to see you singing some blu-ray laurel's if it is positive, mal. Being that you're expectations are as low as they are, if blu-ray outperforms your own expectations, you should be more positive about blu-ray's general performance otherwise.

I, however, find blu-ray's performance as expected under the current economy/market conditions and competition.

Streaming right now for new releases is more of a comparison of rental revenue more so than sell through.

If there was a way to directly compare, digital purchases of media vs blu-ray, that would be more appropriate. Someone renting a movie to stream vs renting from red/box / video b&M stores would be all in the same category.

Those actually buying digital licenses to own the movie forever more would be akin to buying the disc - dvd if sd, bd if HD.
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  #18  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:47 PM
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The OWNERSHIP pie is getting smaller, not the OPTICAL DISC pie alone. Rentals are up, streaming is up. If people really were just sick of plastic discs, then digital movie purchases would be skyrocketing ala DVD's inception.

This isn't JUST a disc smackdown forum guys.
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  #19  
Old 02-06-2013, 12:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
The OWNERSHIP pie is getting smaller, not the OPTICAL DISC pie alone. Rentals are up, streaming is up. If people really were just sick of plastic discs, then digital movie purchases would be skyrocketing ala DVD's inception.

This isn't JUST a disc smackdown forum guys.
You're right. Economy is squeezing people. Obamacare, inflation, etc...the money pie in general is gone. People are tighter with money more than ever before and buying a disc / candy / magazine off the rank in the aisle is happening less and less.
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  #20  
Old 02-06-2013, 01:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
Clearly Blu-ray is not a repeat of DVD. But what's funny is how we need to have these ravenous fanboy debates about if that pink link will be 1 pixel higher or TWO pixels higher next year.
What's really funny is that Blu-ray's growth can even be measured in pixels. Is growth so small that you need a magnifying glass when it's stacked against its predecessors?
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