Wallstreet Analyst says PS3 will eventually win the Console War because of Blu-Ray!!! - High-Def Digest Forums
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-07-2007, 02:48 PM
ARPRINCE's Avatar
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 103
Default Investment Analyst says PS3 will eventually win the Console War because of Blu-Ray!!!

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry....

Wedbush Morgan Securities has issued a report on the video game industry for 2007 and beyond. Huge growth is expected, and analyst Michael Pachter believes the PS3 will ultimately win (just barely) thanks to the Blu-ray format, which he expects to defeat HD DVD.

In a massive 207-page report on the interactive entertainment industry for 2007, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter notes that while "the main driver of console hardware sales is the quality and quantity of the underlying available content," the high definition format war between HD DVD and Blu-ray could be a key factor in determining the console war outcome.

"Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios. Should the studios embrace Sony's Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba's HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come," Pachter explained.

The wildcard, he said, will be "hardware manufacturers' ability either to develop content internally or to secure third-party commitments for software designed exclusively for a single platform." The playing field in this area is likely to be even for Microsoft and Sony, he said, while Nintendo will probably have the largest portfolio of exclusives.

So how does Pachter see the console war ultimately playing out? Despite Sony's early struggles with the PS3, he still believes Sony will come out on top.

"We expect the dominant console at the end of the next cycle to be the Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3), primarily due to our assessment that Sony will win the high definition DVD format war," he said. "However, we expect Microsoft's Xbox 360 to enjoy a first mover advantage for the next two years, capturing approximately 44% of U.S. and European combined next generation hardware unit sales by the end of 2007. We forecast the PS3 and Nintendo's Wii to capture approximately 21% and 35%, respectively, of the next generation hardware market in this same period. We forecast the Wii to take the lead in 2008, with 39% market share, and expect the race to even out in 2009, with all three console makers capturing between 30 37% of the overall market.

"Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36% of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34% and Microsoft finishing third at 30%. We believe that this is essentially a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits. These estimates do not include market shares in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Nintendo (51% through 2011) and Sony (44%)."

Looking at the overall health of the industry, Pachter is forecasting the combined U.S. and European software markets to grow at a 16.1 percent CAGR from 2007 to 2009. WMS estimates that the addressable market opportunity for U.S. software publishers is a whopping $17.7 billion in 2007.

In a separate report from Lazard Capital Markets, analyst Colin Sebastian said he expects at least 15 percent software sales growth in North America this year. "We believe video game sales remain generally healthy year-to-date despite tougher year-over-year comps for the remainder of 2007," he said.

Last edited by ARPRINCE; 05-07-2007 at 02:54 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-07-2007, 03:05 PM
Cieljek's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 727
Default

eehh..

if it wins... which it may, or may not.. I don't think it would be because of Bluray.. in a year, there will be cheaper Bluray options...

it may help down the road... but who's to know?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-07-2007, 05:30 PM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 574
Default

This is an interesting point of view. The article says PS3 will win because of Blu-ray. I would ask what caused PS3 to lose almost 40% of the market.

Not including Japan (since the article didn't include Japan,) PS2 sold over 90 million units while Xbox and Gamecube combined sold less than 40 million. That means PS2 had over 70% of the market.

Even if PS3 does control 36% of the market when all is said and done, that would only be half as successful as the PS2 was. So are these really optimistic projections? Even if they do sell 36% in the end (which is just a guess,) that would mean they lost half their business. Was that because of Blu-ray? If not, how did they virtually hand over the market?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-07-2007, 06:00 PM
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 5,360
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramenator View Post
I would ask what caused PS3 to lose almost 40% of the market.
The Wii is one reason. Nintendo didn't have a strong competitor in the last gen. Plus MSFT didn't come into the battle until a while after the PS2 did (same situation the PS3 has against the 360).
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-07-2007, 10:57 PM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,381
Default

I have all 3 consoles - and I would have to say I primary use my PS3. Mostly as a Blu-ray / DVD player. My 360 gets barely used - but I moving away from playing games.

My Wii is the last one, I think of it as an exercise machine instead of game machine, the graphics is worst than original XBox.

Wii is truely the biggest hype one of all. PS3 and Blu-ray is likely means that PS3 will eventually win - but does that mean its a console any more.

By the way the idea of XBox 360 Elite makes me want to throw my 360 out the window of truck going down the road at 60 mph. Why could they make an adapter for original 360's to support HDMI.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-07-2007, 11:30 PM
Linderman Corp.'s Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 664
Default

they play videogames on wall street?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-07-2007, 11:53 PM
Cieljek's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 727
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Linderman Corp. View Post
they play videogames on wall street?
yep, there's a Wii game where you have to wave your arms frantically to make buys and sells on the stock market, and if all your stocks crash, your character "falls" out of a 40 story window...


it's vicious.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-08-2007, 10:06 AM
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,724
Default

Quote:
Why could they make an adapter for original 360's to support HDMI.
Physically impossible to just "add" HDMI as an adapter.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-08-2007, 10:50 AM
james's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 18,134
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulldog View Post
Physically impossible to just "add" HDMI as an adapter.
The 360's multi-video input/output connector is analog, while HDMI is purely digital. That is why it is impossible. There are companies that try to sell VGA to HDMI converters, but it's more of a gimmick then anything else.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-08-2007, 03:43 PM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 301
Default

Does anyone else see the flaw of this topic? "Wallstreet Analyst says..."

Dude that should really put this thread to rest right there! First off what do they do all day? Guess about what stock is going to do what. This article is just a bunch of guessing, and really who gives a money squeeze what this guy thinks and why. He doesnt have any influence on this war so his opinion counts as much as anyone else's here... nada in the long run. Infact I take that back... his counts for less than ours because at least we are talking with our dollar in what we buy. Him? Do you really think this guy is spending money on the games coming out? I highly doubt it.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Related Topics
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Analyst Says Sony, Microsoft Will Drop Console Prices HDTV1080P Blu-ray and Video Game Consoles 1 01-14-2009 03:42 PM
I chose Blu-Ray because of PS3 and PS3 because of Blu-Ray macd23 High Definition Smackdown 60 02-22-2008 04:21 AM
Article:Analyst believes PS3 will win war and I laugh kyzer1978 Gaming Smackdown 47 12-14-2007 01:53 PM
David Reeves calls PS3 "tsunami", will win console war james Gaming Smackdown 48 07-15-2007 09:35 PM
'Win' Console War Because of Blu-ray RunnerX High Definition Smackdown 15 05-07-2007 11:31 PM


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off