A defense of vgchartz - Page 3 - High-Def Digest Forums
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  #21  
Old 11-09-2007, 04:16 PM
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I really don't see why you're so adamantly defending VGChartz, most people here won't ever take it seriously. I think it speaks volumes that many people have already said they fudge their data, they're innacurate yet you seem willing to ignore those details.

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I said they use the exact same method with the difference being scale and you say it's a different method because NPD gets 60% and estimates the other 40% and vgchartz gets 5% and estimates the other 95%?
So scaling with 5% gives you the same degree of accuracy as when using 60%? How do you figure? That's almost like saying "well if I walk into a store and nobody is there, that must mean nobody anywhere likes coming to this store." It's nearly anectdoctal.

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People keep making that accusation, and it's a pretty serious one. But also one that's very easy to prove if it's true. If you want to make a claim like that, get the screenshots and show them changing their numbers then claiming that the modified numbers were there original for comparison. Innocent until proven guilty right?
It's not "people", it's NPD. NPD has said that VGChartz does this. And since VGChartz isn't 100% transparent in releasing their sources, and they go back and change their numbers after NPD releases theirs, it's a pretty safe bet who their 'source' is.

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If the exact numbers came out a couple weeks after NPD people would say to ignore the NPD as worthless until the exact numbers came out. And until NPD numbers come out, VGChartz is the best we have. Especially with NPD cutting back.
The numbers will be available from IGN, so there isn't a complete blackout of information, therefore no VGChartz isn't the best we have, it's the worst we have. Simsexchange is better if you want guesses - but who wants guesses. You certainly don't need VGChartz to do that.
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  #22  
Old 11-09-2007, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Godstar View Post
I really don't see why you're so adamantly defending VGChartz, most people here won't ever take it seriously. I think it speaks volumes that many people have already said they fudge their data, they're innacurate yet you seem willing to ignore those details.
I don't see why you're so against it. If you don't want to use their numbers don't, and ignore people who do. I've just never understood the degree of vitriol some people have for it. There's a few people who seem to make a pretty active smear campaign from it, and the fact that I've seen wild claims against the site that turned out to be false before makes me doubt other such claims until they're proven true.

Just because many people say something, doesn't mean it's true. We have tons of myths in society many people are convinced are true. It's still a very simple request. One little screenshot, one piece of proof, which should be easily obtainable if it's true, linked in this post, and I will admit I was wrong.


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So scaling with 5% gives you the same degree of accuracy as when using 60%? How do you figure? That's almost like saying "well if I walk into a store and nobody is there, that must mean nobody anywhere likes coming to this store." It's nearly anectdoctal.
I never said it gave the same degree of accuracy, I admitted it would be less accurate. And 5% is quite a bit more than anecdotal evidence. Polls are done on far less than 5% of the population, although, as I've already stated, sales data is more difficult to get accurate numbers from with a sampling. Especially one that isn't random.


It's not "people", it's NPD. NPD has said that VGChartz does this. And since VGChartz isn't 100% transparent in releasing their sources, and they go back and change their numbers after NPD releases theirs, it's a pretty safe bet who their 'source' is.


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The numbers will be available from IGN, so there isn't a complete blackout of information, therefore no VGChartz isn't the best we have, it's the worst we have.
It's a lot better than the random people on the forums making claims ranging from the PS3 being pulled from the market to selling 10 million or more over the holidays. So it obviously isn't the worst. I'll have to look an Simexchange, but to my knowledge they just use estimates, so anyone who doesn't find VGChartz data worthwhile certainly shouldn't consider Simexchange of any value.
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  #23  
Old 11-09-2007, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
I don't see why you're so against it. If you don't want to use their numbers don't, and ignore people who do. I've just never understood the degree of vitriol some people have for it. There's a few people who seem to make a pretty active smear campaign from it, and the fact that I've seen wild claims against the site that turned out to be false before makes me doubt other such claims until they're proven true.

Just because many people say something, doesn't mean it's true. We have tons of myths in society many people are convinced are true. It's still a very simple request. One little screenshot, one piece of proof, which should be easily obtainable if it's true, linked in this post, and I will admit I was wrong.




I never said it gave the same degree of accuracy, I admitted it would be less accurate. And 5% is quite a bit more than anecdotal evidence. Polls are done on far less than 5% of the population, although, as I've already stated, sales data is more difficult to get accurate numbers from with a sampling. Especially one that isn't random.


It's not "people", it's NPD. NPD has said that VGChartz does this. And since VGChartz isn't 100% transparent in releasing their sources, and they go back and change their numbers after NPD releases theirs, it's a pretty safe bet who their 'source' is.




It's a lot better than the random people on the forums making claims ranging from the PS3 being pulled from the market to selling 10 million or more over the holidays. So it obviously isn't the worst. I'll have to look an Simexchange, but to my knowledge they just use estimates, so anyone who doesn't find VGChartz data worthwhile certainly shouldn't consider Simexchange of any value.
Just curious but do you work or are somehow affiliated with VGChartz? You seem to be adamantly defending them. I don't think you're going to convince many people here that VG Chartz produces anything worth looking at, so I'm not really sure why you're bothering.
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  #24  
Old 11-09-2007, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
Just to go right back at you for a comment you make later in your reply, do you have a link to the 60%? I'm quite impressed if they managed to get such a high percentage of the sales data. I would have pegged it at 30-40%.
http://kotaku.com/gaming/npd/npd-how...rks-229825.php

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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
No actually it's right. I said they use the exact same method with the difference being scale and you say it's a different method because NPD gets 60% and estimates the other 40% and vgchartz gets 5% and estimates the other 95%? That is the same method. I hope whatever vgchartz % of the sales data is that can continue to get more, improve their methods, and become a real competitor to NPD that offers a lot more free data.
Did you miss the part where I said they pull from 1 source, that makes up 5% of the industry or so. Thats all they have, 1 retailer, not multiple retailers. That means if a particular company pays that retailer to promote their product, it will skew the VGChartz numbers. Also the VGChartz model for adjusting their numbers are nowhere near as sophisticated as NPD's numbers, thats why they're constantly off and adjusting their numbers when official numbers come out.

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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
People keep making that accusation, and it's a pretty serious one. But also one that's very easy to prove if it's true. If you want to make a claim like that, get the screenshots and show them changing their numbers then claiming that the modified numbers were there original for comparison. Innocent until proven guilty right?
I'm not going to sit there and take screenshots of VGChartz all day. There are ample threads that discuss this on their own forums. People report data that are discrepencies with VGChartz data and it magically adjusts itself all the time, most commonly this is done in Europe, where they average between 80-150% off in their data. Believe it or don't believe it, I don't care, if you pay attention to their numbers close enough you'll notice the change around NPD time.


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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
Exactly, it's the best available. If the exact numbers came out a couple weeks after NPD people would say to ignore the NPD as worthless until the exact numbers came out. And until NPD numbers come out, VGChartz is the best we have. Especially with NPD cutting back. Sure you can't say with conviction which console sold more when they're close, but even on the month that the PS3 lost to the 360 when VGChartz showed the 360 winning, I believe it was close enough to be within the margin of error for NPD.
The difference between VGChartz and NPD is that VGChartz data is outside what is commonly considered to be a reasonable margin for error. NPD's data has a margin for error of 2%, VGChartz has a margin for error of 15-20% for hardware (They claim 10% but thats not true), and even higher for Software. 2% = acceptable margin for error, 15-20% = absurd for use.

We'll still be getting NPD numbers, so VGChartz is NOT the best we have, the only reason it's used still is because they release data on a weekly basis, they are virtually ignored for their Japanese data because real data is released on a weekly basis.

Yes, the difference was within NPD's margin for error, but considering that VGChartz had the PS3 overestimated by 22% and the 360 underestimated by close to the same number theres a big difference. THATS why NPD is trusted and VGChartz isn't.

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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
At the very least it can be used as a tool to say why you think one system or another is doing well. If VGChartz shows the PS3 with a 500% increase from one week to the next with 360 sales plummeting week after week, then it would certainly be more likely that the PS3 would win that month.
Only on a longterm scale can VGChartz be used, which is what should be used for determining an opinion like whether or not something is doing well anyways IMO. Yes you can look at VGChartz and see short term trends but I can think of two seperate occasions (June of this year and March of this year) when VGChartz showed inaccurate trends and adjusted themselves after the real data was released. Sometimes VGChartz gets it right. Sometimes a blindman firing an automatic weapons hits the target as well, does that mean you want that blind man to be the one backing you up as you charge an enemy fortification?

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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
Sure there's a lot of speculation and uncertainty as well, but that doesn't mean people shouldn't use it.
Um... why should they use a source that is proven to be inaccurate? At best it's a source for rumors of sales in short term discussions.

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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
Are you also against the use of release dates in posts? Those are highly speculative and can often end up being way off, even when the date was supposed to be very soon. So for people who want to ban VGChartz numbers do you want to ban all release dates being mentioned in an argument too until they're actually out?
Where did I say I wanted to ban VGChartz numbers? I believe I said they are not a good source of sales data except for use in longterm data analysis or for ballpark ideas of sales for Hardware in a given month. Also usually when a company gives a release date, while it is occasionally delayed, that's usually a pretty good indicator of when it will come out, especially when you're within 2 months of the date.


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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
You misread that, the NPD has no real competitors, not VGChartz.
I guess it depends on how you define the word competitors then.


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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post

Maybe the Famitsu is like an early estimate and the m-create ones are the final numbers if that's the case.
That is usually how it works, the Famitsu numbers come out first and are usually translated and posted with Media Creates numbers later since they're within a day of each other.


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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
I read a post not that long ago on their site where they categorically denied that the NPD ever threatened to sue them, that all that ever happened was the were contacted by someone at the NPD inquiring as to how they got their numbers and that they responded with what they did and that was that.
Is that why after NPD contacted them they changed to doing weekly releases instead of monthly numbers? VGChartz got famous for releasing NPD numbers because they were usually the first people to release the data.

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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
Again this is a claim I hear a lot without any evidence. Can you provide a link? Show where the NPD said they had threatened legal action against VGChartz? Anything?
Do I have a link discussing a conversation between NPD group and the guy who runs VGChartz? Why would such a link exist? It was publicly stated that NPD Group approached VGChartz and that was the reason they changed data method to be weekly instead of monthly. Thats also the time they started claiming they had a separate source for their data. Take that as you will.

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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
But really, at least you admit they probably do have access to actual sales data, which certainly gives them an advantage in terms of estimates over me. And they present the data in a very nice format. What does it really matter that it's not perfectly accurate? It's not like it's the end of the world if someone thought that one console won a month and it turned out the other did instead. And I always find the weekly sales numbers a breath of fresh air compared to most of the arguments that get repeated ad nauseam in these forums.
I do appreciate VGChartz's format, which is why I use them over other sources for long term data, where they are reasonably accurate. My only complaint is when their data in short term sales is used to back up claims for sales, because it tends to be wrong about 1/3 of the time due to their huge margin for error.
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  #25  
Old 11-09-2007, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Godstar View Post
Just curious but do you work or are somehow affiliated with VGChartz? You seem to be adamantly defending them. I don't think you're going to convince many people here that VG Chartz produces anything worth looking at, so I'm not really sure why you're bothering.
They have been doing a ton of PR stuff to try and turn gamers on NPD. Its likely he participates in their forums or something, or is just generally frustrated at the news of NPD not releasing data to the public.
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  #26  
Old 11-09-2007, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Godstar View Post
Just curious but do you work or are somehow affiliated with VGChartz? You seem to be adamantly defending them. I don't think you're going to convince many people here that VG Chartz produces anything worth looking at, so I'm not really sure why you're bothering.
Not affiliated in any way. It's just that I really like analyzing numbers, comparing data, drawing conclusions, etc and the NPD numbers are just far too limited and infrequent to keep me occupied in my hobby. As such I badly want some site doing what VGChartz is doing. I want them to stick around, succeed, find new sources, improve their methods, become more accurate, and continue providing more information for free.

Beyond that, I also love a good debate, and once one has been started, I'll continue it for the sake of the debate itself.
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  #27  
Old 11-09-2007, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by BStroms View Post
Not affiliated in any way. It's just that I really like analyzing numbers, comparing data, drawing conclusions, etc and the NPD numbers are just far too limited and infrequent to keep me occupied in my hobby. As such I badly want some site doing what VGChartz is doing. I want them to stick around, succeed, find new sources, improve their methods, become more accurate, and continue providing more information for free.

Beyond that, I also love a good debate, and once one has been started, I'll continue it for the sake of the debate itself.
Hey it's cool, just thought I'd ask since it's always possible.
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  #28  
Old 11-09-2007, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by RedRedSuit View Post
Gnome has arrived to administer sales knowledge pwnage. Have you considered a career in this? You seem quite into it.
Um... I work in Marketing... it IS my career, I just don't work in this industry.
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  #29  
Old 11-09-2007, 06:46 PM
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They are the ones who broke the news on the 360 outselling the PS3 in Japan this week and they were spot on with that.
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  #30  
Old 11-09-2007, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by tranzparentl View Post
They are the ones who broke the news on the 360 outselling the PS3 in Japan this week and they were spot on with that.
Like Gnome said, give a blind guy an automatic rifle and tell him to shoot into a crowd and he's bound to hit something. Plus I think they made that announcement/prediction based off Famitsu numbers...
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