NEXT: When Will Blu-ray Prices Come to Where HD DVD's Were? (Or even SD gear?!?) - High-Def Digest Forums
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Old 02-27-2008, 05:26 AM
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Question NEXT: When Will Blu-ray Prices Come to Where HD DVD's Were? (Or even SD gear?!?)

Do you guys have any predictions or info on when Blu-ray discs and gear will get down to the lower prices that HD DVD discs and gear were during the format war? Or possibly even down to where SD stuff is?
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Old 02-27-2008, 05:30 AM
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HD DVD player prices dropped prematurely low because they were fighting to stay alive. Don't expect BD player prices to reach the $100 for a couple more years. The more J6P jumps on the BD bandwagon, the faster prices will drop. No different than how all the other CE products drop in price. Its all about supply and demand.
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Old 02-27-2008, 07:46 AM
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Originally Posted by cre8sbeats View Post
Do you guys have any predictions or info on when Blu-ray discs and gear will get down to the lower prices that HD DVD discs and gear were during the format war? Or possibly even down to where SD stuff is?
Reality check: the Toshiba A30 was announced at $399 six months ago. The Sony S350 has been announced at $399 now.

So Blu-ray is actually at HD DVD prices, if we don't count the firesales.
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Old 02-27-2008, 02:53 PM
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Reality check: the Toshiba A30 was announced at $399 six months ago. The Sony S350 has been announced at $399 now.

So Blu-ray is actually at HD DVD prices, if we don't count the firesales.
You know that is not what he meant. A lot of people want to pop on-board but not at current pricing.
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Old 02-27-2008, 03:25 PM
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Default It will be awhile I assure you

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Originally Posted by pharbath View Post
You know that is not what he meant. A lot of people want to pop on-board but not at current pricing.
I know a bunch of people besides myself that want to go Blu, but won't pay $300-$500 for a player. I have drawn a line in the sand myself. I'll buy a combo player for $300 or a Blu-Player for $200. I will not pay one penny more for a Blu-player than I did for my HD-DVD player. So, I guess I'll just watch HD-DVDs and up-converted DVDs for now.
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Old 02-27-2008, 09:25 PM
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The more J6P jumps on the BD bandwagon, the faster prices will drop. No different than how all the other CE products drop in price. Its all about supply and demand.
Uhh I don't think you understand supply and demand if you just said that! When demand out paces supply (the situation you described where more people join the BD camp than are expected to) prices RISE. Supply and demand says that when you produce more than you can sell (e.g. HD DVD situation of having millions of players produced and no one buys them) prices FALL.

If millions more people buy BD than are expected there will be a shortage of players (look at the Wii). There are production limitations, that's just a fact of life. Supply and demand dictates that are BD becomes more popular, Sony should NOT lower prices but rather keep them the same or even increase them. From an S&D perspective, the LESS people adopting BD means prices will fall since Sony will have warehouses full of players that no one wants to buy.

I do think prices will fall. But supply and demand has nothing to do with it. Prices will fall because Sony will recoup it's initial investiment (for example the pay offs studios received, the fact that the PS3 was being sold at a loss, etc.). Once BD becomes profitable, they can lower prices while keeping the same profit margin. When new technology is created there is an initial investment cost (research and development, patent filing fees, production costs, etc.). Therefore, even if you have the greatest idea ever, you're initially going to be in the red. It's only after you recoup those loses that you're able to lower the prices. Additionally, the cost of production decreases. People have already been finding cheaper ways to produce the blue lasers, people will remove "unnecessary features" (do you really need a player with HDMI, component, and analog outputs?) and things like that.

The other reason prices should fall is because now BD needs to compete with DVD and also win over the former HD DVD people (they haven't convinced me to switch yet). Also, at a marginal level, the whole DreamWorks thing still throws a small wrench in the BDA's plans. Many people say upconverted DVD is "good enough" especially if you have a 720p TV. Those people need to be convinced to switch to BD. One way to do that is price drops. I won't pay $30 for a BD movie when I can pay $10 for a DVD, but I might pay $15. There will also hopefully be competition among CE vendors. Sony is running the show with the PS3. Panasonic and Samsung (and presumably others, probably even Toshiba) want to be the biggest BD manufacturer, not Sony. To do this, they need you to buy their products instead of Sony. This means producing better and cheaper players than Sony is.

That is why prices will fall. It has nothing to do with supply and demand. It has to do with recouping loses, decreased production costs, and competition. Sorry for the economics rant, but simply saying "it's supply and demand" doesn't do the topic justice. I think prices will fall, probably the prices of discs will fall sooner than the prices of players in my opinion, but when you really look at it, it has nothing to do with supply and demand.
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Old 02-27-2008, 11:31 PM
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BD players definetly cost more, but weren't the two formats pretty equal as far as cost per disc before Toshiba made the announcement? Last time I browsed the shelves at BB before Toshiba's announcement, I saw the Harry Potter films as well as some other multi-platform titles were the same price.
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Old 02-27-2008, 11:48 PM
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I figure a yr from now they'll be at $200-250 . Guess you won't be watching hd movies for awhile.
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Old 02-28-2008, 01:00 AM
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Cool The key - maybe.

I think the price-drop will have to result from genius marketing. Marketing that will get middle America and the [usually less than] average Joe to think they can't live without it. With all of us, we KNOW BETTER and SEE the difference. Until the Unlce Cletus', Bubbas, and Grammies & Pappys out there realize the awesome leap we've made in technology, Wal-Mart won't move any more hi-def discs or hardware than they are right this minute.

Demand has everything to do with it because demand spurs competition and competition creates lower prices.

So get all your non-hi-def-aware friends on the bandwagon ASAP!
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Old 02-28-2008, 02:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Trekker4Life View Post
I know a bunch of people besides myself that want to go Blu, but won't pay $300-$500 for a player. I have drawn a line in the sand myself. I'll buy a combo player for $300 or a Blu-Player for $200. I will not pay one penny more for a Blu-player than I did for my HD-DVD player. So, I guess I'll just watch HD-DVDs and up-converted DVDs for now.
Not to knock your decision, but why invest your money into DVDs (somethings that takes you a decade backwards), when you can spend just a little bit more and purchase previously viewed Blu-rays? I have found some amazing deals on this forum, other forums, amazon, ebay, etc, etc. Infact I just cleared out my entire DVD collection.

As for the affordability of Blu-ray players, $300 for a dual format and $200 for a standalone, I don't know about that... Unless you're willing to purchase a refurb or discontinued model. Perhaps you should set your budget to a more realistic level. I mean 2 years into the game, and we can purchase brand new Blu-ray players for $350 - $399 (not to mention the great deals you can find on a used machine) already tells me that we're far ahead of what things were like when DVD first released. I remember purchasing my first DVD player 1.5 years after DVD released, and I paid $1100 and that was the manager's cost (retail was something like $1400). Granted I am in Canada and a decade ago, the US and Canadian market in terms of electronics were miles apart, but still.

Not to mention, it's a well known fact that the costs for Blu-ray vs. HD DVD are far higher... but anyway, the choice is yours...

Last edited by zr123; 02-28-2008 at 03:51 AM.
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