As much as I hate to say it, the future is Blu.

[calereneau]

It all happened so fast.

Less than a month ago, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who didn’t think that HD DVD was going to be around just as long, if not longer than Blu-ray. But here we are one month later, and HD DVD is fading fast. Indeed, to many it’s already a distant memory. It only took a week, or more specifically, a single day for things to turn around drastically.

Prior to Warner’s announcement that they would be dropping HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray exclusivity, HD DVD had the momentum. Still gaining ground from the Paramount/Dreamworks deal, and gaining new customers every day through fairly priced players, HD DVD was suddenly looking like the comeback kid. Now it’s the retarded stepchild of High-def Media.

And with each passing week, it just gets gloomier and gloomier for those who invested in HD DVD. Sales data is staggeringly in favor of Blu-ray, news outlets continue to declare the format dead, Circuit City is the first (and probably not last) to put Tohiba’s 3rd Gen players on clearance, and we still haven’t seen Universal or Paramount bring out the big guns in support of the format.

It’s dead, folks.

That is, unless Toshiba and Microsoft can pull a miracle out of their collective ass. You see, HD DVD isn’t on the fast track to Beta-world because of Warner’s decision to drop their support. They could’ve survived that. What they cannot survive is the onslaught of negative press that followed that announcement. What HD DVD really lost that day was consumer confidence, and they have yet to gain it back. If they really want to win this war, THAT’S what they need to do.

You can lower prices on players to $50 and it won’t make a difference. You can bring movie prices down to $5 without putting a dent in Blu-ray’s software lead. People aren’t going to buy a product that they don’t believe in. Right now, HD DVD is not a viable alternative to Blu-ray…at all!

Imagine, if you will, that you’re at your favorite sporting event. Your team is losing by a large margin and shows almost no signs of coming back. You have lost confidence in your team’s ability to win that game. They send out the cheerleaders and the mascot to pump you up, to get you back into the game, but somehow the awesomeness of bouncing mammaries or a mascot beating up another isn’t doing it for you. What you really want to see, indeed the only thing that can make a difference in the game, is for your team to start fighting back and to take that fight to the opposing team.

HD DVD is sending out the cheerleaders right now, when what they really should be doing is fighting the other team. They cannot win this war with cheerleaders and mascots. They need to take something from Blu-ray. But is that even an option at this point? Warner and Fox are clearly Blu-exclusive and have paychecks to prove it. Disney has consistently been the format’s biggest supporter (minus Sony) and shows no signs of letting up. Lionsgate has been pretty vocal about their support, but could probably be bought out. But come on! Lionsgate? That won’t make a bit of difference. Ok, well what about getting some retailer exclusivity? Doubtful. It seems fairly unlikely that retailers would abandon something that is clearly selling well for something that isn’t.

You see, there’s no way that HD DVD can win this war now without paying way too much money for a major studio like Fox or Disney, and now that they’re so far behind, the likelihood that one of those studios would be willing to prolong the format war for decreased sales seems terribly unlikely.

This past month has given us all plenty of time to think about this war and where it is going. I think if you take a step back and just view everything that’s been happening that it’s pretty hard to think that HD DVD isn’t on it’s way out. Even Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, and Paramount have had their mouths shut on the subject, giving consumers no real reason to buy into their product. Sooner or later we have to all face the facts….

As much as I hate to say it, the future is Blu.

[noethix]

Good choice! good read! Now start enjoying!

[Hobbes]

That's a well written and well thought out post. The PR nightmare of the Warner announcement was just too much for HD DVD to bear.

[Ispoke]

To OP...... Agreed, on the previous well written and thought out piece comment. I am sure some may pick holes in it, but it does not negate your summery and of course your correct conclusion that the future is Blu

[aLcATRAZ]

Thats too bad calereneau. You should go and find yourself a BD player, use it for 2 weeks and then share your opinions comparing the formats side by side on the forum.

Don't sell your HD DVD gear just yet. Even though the future might be Blu, it's no guarantee that you will prefer blu over red. Red is still the most consumer friendly format and there is still some good support.

/Mike

[Maxphoenix]

Though i disagree, I have to say nice post.

I actually bought my player after the warner announcement and belive toshiba still has a chance to "win". When i talk to people about HDM and the future the majority tell me they don't care which it is, they will buy the player that hits $100 first. You have to remember J6P can't tell the difference between 480,720, or 1080 unless they are side by side.

[PaulGo]

Interesting comments.

[simonnyc]

yeah i stopped by a bestbuy last night (first time in a while) and my heart kinda sunk when i saw all the diff't blu-ray displays and only 1 hd-dvd display (which looked to be hooked up with rca cables)

the future really is blu....

[calereneau]

Originally Posted by aLcATRAZ

Thats too bad calereneau. You should go and find yourself a BD player, use it for 2 weeks and then share your opinions comparing the formats side by side on the forum.

Don't sell your HD DVD gear just yet. Even though the future might be Blu, it's no guarantee that you will prefer blu over red. Red is still the most consumer friendly format and there is still some good support.

/Mike

I've actually had experiences with both, and I much prefer HD DVD. That's why I chose it in the first place. I still think HD DVD is a better format, and I have no plans to sell off my inventory ( I actually plan on buying a sub-$100 player just for backup purposes eventually) because the last time I checked they still worked fine.

But HD DVD cannot dig itself out of this hole.

And thanks to those of you who left positive comments. I realize the topic has been discussed before, but I wanted to post something without fanboy spin, something that uses logic and fact to back up arguments. If you just look at the facts and take bias out of it, HD DVD has pretty much lost.

[bazie]

Originally Posted by aLcATRAZ

Thats too bad calereneau. You should go and find yourself a BD player, use it for 2 weeks and then share your opinions comparing the formats side by side on the forum.

Don't sell your HD DVD gear just yet. Even though the future might be Blu, it's no guarantee that you will prefer blu over red. Red is still the most consumer friendly format and there is still some good support.

/Mike

Its not a matter of whether you prefer blu over red in terms of formats or technicalities of the players. Its whether or not your prefer watching MOVIES over having these nice technical advantages....like...uh....syncing your harry potter watching?

If you like movies, you will buy the player that will have the most movies made for it.

[OnMyOwn Vin0]

I very much agree with the OP...

[calereneau]

Originally Posted by bazie

Its not a matter of whether you prefer blu over red in terms of formats or technicalities of the players. Its whether or not your prefer watching MOVIES over having these nice technical advantages....like...uh....syncing your harry potter watching?

If you like movies, you will buy the player that will have the most movies made for it.

Can't you like both?

I participated in the first HDD HP Screening and it was a really cool feature. It had it's share of problems, but it was very cool. HD DVD isn't (wasn't?) a format for advanced special features. It is a format for advanced special features AND great movies.

[hstewarth]

I know some don't want to believe this. But I believe that Toshiba downfall is directly related to decision to pay off Paramount/Dreamworks?

Why? this would have force the industry in a stalemate and stalemate in HDM is something Warner did not want.

If Toshiba would not have paid off Paramount/Dreamworks and got them to come over on their own - Warner might have even choosen HD DVD.

This would have been bad for me, because my collection would be going way. But in that case I would purchase a Standalone HD DVD player - but I don't have to that now.

[Yoda]

Anything can happen between now and June. Stay Tuned

[SRFan]

While I agree with you that there is practically nothing HD DVD can do to win the war, I disagree with a couple things you said:

Originally Posted by calereneau

Prior to Warner’s announcement that they would be dropping HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray exclusivity, HD DVD had the momentum. Still gaining ground from the Paramount/Dreamworks deal, and gaining new customers every day through fairly priced players, HD DVD was suddenly looking like the comeback kid.

Seems like you forgot to mention the sales numbers. Blu-ray standalones were outselling HD DVD standalones in december despite higher prices. This didn't even include the PS3.
When Blu-ray had a hit new release out in december, the ratio would go above 70's, when HD DVD had a hit release, the ratio didn't dip below 60's, even when a new release such as the Bourne Ultimatum, was included in a BOGO at the highest HDM volume retailer, Best Buy.
Therefore I fail to see this "momentum" that HD DVD had that you speak of, but it doesn't matter now anyways.

Originally Posted by calereneau

Warner and Fox are clearly Blu-exclusive and have paychecks to prove it.

I'll hold this statement to the same credibility standards I hold the Paramount/Dreamworks deal. Find me ONE article written on or after January 4th, by a credible source such as the NY Times and WS Journal, saying that Warner and Fox were paid off, and I'll admit they were paid off just like Paramount was.

I am also enjoying how much HD DVD owners are hating that the future is blu. Fire, Water, Burn baby!