Georgian and Russian Conflict Escalates

[kch2003]

(MOD Note* - I've created this thread because the other thread has been thrown off course for some time, no need to close the other one now, this one can do it's job)

It seems that the cease-fire signed just yesterday has already been disobeyed.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe...war/index.html

[Praetorian]

This whole situation has become more and more interesting by the day. I think we've been over thinking this conflict slightly. This is about energy I think. The BCT (The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) is one of the main oil supply pipelines for Europe. It accounts for about 1/3 of Europe's oil and about 40% of their natural gas. Now here's where things get fucked up, Russia supplies Europe with 1/3 of their oil and about 50% of their natural gas. Since Russia controls the western section of Georgia, the effectively control the Gerogian pipelines. That equates to about 2/3 of Europe's oil supply and almost 90% of their natural gas!

Unless Russia gives Georgia back it's sovereign territory, this could be looking extremely bad for Europe. One more reason why we have to drill in America now! And since Russia keeps 'breaking' the cease-fire, I don't think they're too interested in leaving anytime soon.

Do you think Russia will give back what they took?

[Snadinator]

Originally Posted by Praetorian

This whole situation has become more and more interesting by the day. I think we've been over thinking this conflict slightly. This is about energy I think. The BCT (The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) is one of the main oil supply pipelines for Europe. It accounts for about 1/3 of Europe's oil and about 40% of their natural gas. Now here's where things get fucked up, Russia supplies Europe with 1/3 of their oil and about 50% of their natural gas. Since Russia controls the western section of Georgia, the effectively control the Gerogian pipelines. That equates to about 2/3 of Europe's oil supply and almost 90% of their natural gas!

Unless Russia gives Georgia back it's sovereign territory, this could be looking extremely bad for Europe. One more reason why we have to drill in America now! And since Russia keeps 'breaking' the cease-fire, I don't think they're too interested in leaving anytime soon.

Do you think Russia will give back what they took?

The world has gone mad I tells ya!

[zombiequest]

I think this has Serious backlash ramifacations for Russia in the World's Eye.. reminds me of how America went from the Darling of the World to a Dirtbag almost overnight by attacking Iraq for what we now know was completely fabricated evidence... if there's anything positive about this situation at least now someone else can take heat in the World Community for once besides us (and China for their treatment of Tibitians) Gives us a chance to mend relations with the rest of the World.

Militarily, there's nothing we can do about it, we're stretched beyond reason as is right now with Iraq and Afganistan.. who do we have left to send? weekend warriors? Maybe we can give arms to the Peace Corps and Boyscouts and tell them to have at it

Georgia may be an Ally, but not a big enough one to go to War with Russia. Iran and Iraq are one thing.. but you dont go to War against a Superpower unless you have Terminal Cancer and have nothing left to live for... because it's World Suicide.

[Praetorian]

Russia is far from a super power. They are considered to be a developing nation, their GDP is one 1/10th what the US GDP is. There is no way they can afford to have any sort of sustainable military engagement. Just because you have nuclear weapons does not make you a superpower, it makes you a deterrent.

[Godstar]

Originally Posted by Praetorian

This whole situation has become more and more interesting by the day. I think we've been over thinking this conflict slightly. This is about energy I think. The BCT (The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) is one of the main oil supply pipelines for Europe. It accounts for about 1/3 of Europe's oil and about 40% of their natural gas. Now here's where things get fucked up, Russia supplies Europe with 1/3 of their oil and about 50% of their natural gas. Since Russia controls the western section of Georgia, the effectively control the Gerogian pipelines. That equates to about 2/3 of Europe's oil supply and almost 90% of their natural gas!

Unless Russia gives Georgia back it's sovereign territory, this could be looking extremely bad for Europe. One more reason why we have to drill in America now! And since Russia keeps 'breaking' the cease-fire, I don't think they're too interested in leaving anytime soon.

Do you think Russia will give back what they took?

Who knows what their ulterior motives are....we are no worse than Russia when you consider we did the same thing in Iraq. This is bad for Europe though, since their energy policy will be dictated by the Russians. I do think this will force both the EU and US to take a step back with the whole NATO indoctrination of former Warsaw Pact countries, and make them stop with the missle shield nonsense. I agree though, they won't be leaving anytime soon, nor will they probably give up the portion of Georgia they've taken.

[Godstar]

Originally Posted by Praetorian

Russia is far from a super power. They are considered to be a developing nation, their GDP is one 1/10th what the US GDP is. There is no way they can afford to have any sort of sustainable military engagement. Just because you have nuclear weapons does not make you a superpower, it makes you a deterrent.

Well, the US is a superpower and they certainly can't afford an engagement there, prolonged or not, either. About the only possible responce would be a joint NATO effort and who knows when that might come about, if ever.

I think they have more than enough money to do what they want to do right now, and to maintain control over Georgia.

[Snadinator]

Originally Posted by Godstar

Well, the US is a superpower and they certainly can't afford an engagement there, prolonged or not, either. About the only possible responce would be a joint NATO effort and who knows when that might come about, if ever.

I think they have more than enough money to do what they want to do right now, and to maintain control over Georgia.

And being a deterrant gives you plenty of power. With America's declining economy and occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan... their hands are tied.

[Praetorian]

Originally Posted by Godstar

Who knows what their ulterior motives are....we are no worse than Russia when you consider we did the same thing in Iraq. This is bad for Europe though, since their energy policy will be dictated by the Russians. I do think this will force both the EU and US to take a step back with the whole NATO indoctrination of former Warsaw Pact countries, and make them stop with the missle shield nonsense. I agree though, they won't be leaving anytime soon, nor will they probably give up the portion of Georgia they've taken.

Yes, but if you stop with NATO indoctrination and our missile shield ambitions, you are effectively taking away every single bargaining chip the US has. You are sending a signal to the world saying "America lost, and is walking away with it's tail between it's legs". You are giving up a lot of power and transferring it to Russia, while at the same time, telling the world that you won't fight for anything. I don't think it would be in America's interest to send a message like that to the world, we would lose credibility over night.

[Praetorian]

Originally Posted by Snadinator

And being a deterrant gives you plenty of power. With America's declining economy and occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan... their hands are tied.

America's economy is actually growing, so far 2.9% sustained growth this year alone. That's faster growth than Europe.

[zombiequest]

Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed Conflict has risen everywhere in the World since the invasion of Iraq?? It's like everyone was holding back until we attacked "someone we didn't like" giving the Green Light to everyone else in the World that it's perfectly ok to attack anyone. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if New Zealand and Australia started fighting each other.

[kch2003]

Originally Posted by zombiequest

Georgia may be an Ally, but not a big enough one to go to War with Russia. Iran and Iraq are one thing.. but you dont go to War against a Superpower unless you have Terminal Cancer and have nothing left to live for... because it's World Suicide.

Disagree, like Pre says they are far from a Superpower status. The problem with saying that Georgia isn't a large enough ally to defend gives us HUGE problems with the rest of the former Soviet Union Nations. When our words do not transform into actual protection then they start to doubt our abilities. We should be arming Georgia and other alike nations heavily (not-quite nuclear), it would do great things for our Economy and they would be more able to protect themselves.

I also think we should provide a Battalion (not quiet sure how much that is, maybe a thousand) of troops to be stationed with the Georgian's as "Peace keeping troops". I do not think the Russians would continue to lie and attack if they were at the same time hitting US troops, plus it would assure Georgia that we are behind them. I am NOT saying we involve ourselves in the fighting, but I am pretty sure the Russians do not want to start a fight with us. We should dress it up to be as neutral as possible, but it would really send a message to Russia to knock their shit off and that we back up our allies.

Originally Posted by Praetorian

Russia is far from a super power. They are considered to be a developing nation, their GDP is one 1/10th what the US GDP is. There is no way they can afford to have any sort of sustainable military engagement. Just because you have nuclear weapons does not make you a superpower, it makes you a deterrent.

Agree with ya, I think Russia knows we will not involve ourselves more then we are, thus they have no fear of engaging any substantial forces. Like I said above, we should be providing MUCH MORE support to them then we are, it's complete bullshit how we are leaving them out to dry.

[Snadinator]

Originally Posted by zombiequest

Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed Conflict has risen everywhere in the World since the invasion of Iraq?? It's like everyone was holding back until we attacked "someone we didn't like" giving the Green Light to everyone else in the World that it's perfectly ok to attack anyone. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if New Zealand and Australia started fighting each other.

It's all the Joker's doing.

[Godstar]

Originally Posted by Praetorian

Yes, but if you stop with NATO indoctrination and our missile shield ambitions, you are effectively taking away every single bargaining chip the US has. You are sending a signal to the world saying "America lost, and is walking away with it's tail between it's legs". You are giving up a lot of power and transferring it to Russia, while at the same time, telling the world that you won't fight for anything. I don't think it would be in America's interest to send a message like that to the world, we would lose credibility over night.

I disagree, you would be saying to the Russians that we honor our promises made to Gorbachev in order to end the Cold War. We promised we wouldn't move NATO into former eastern block countries. Now we're pushing it right on their borders, exactly how does that make us losers and running with our tails between our legs? If anything it makes us look like liars. We've already lost credibility in the eyes of the world, why do you think Russia doesn't trust the US anymore? The US and NATO has been backing them up against the wall and now they are responding. That should tell you something. Russia needs a buffer zone to feel comfortable, just as we do, so I don't think it's 'losing' to back off a bit, it's in fact diplomatic.

[Praetorian]

Originally Posted by zombiequest

Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed Conflict has risen everywhere in the World since the invasion of Iraq?? It's like everyone was holding back until we attacked "someone we didn't like" giving the Green Light to everyone else in the World that it's perfectly ok to attack anyone. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if New Zealand and Australia started fighting each other.

Stuff like this has gone on forever. China and Taiwan have had numerous small scale conflicts, India - Pakistan getting nukes, Africa going ape shit, Central America involved in numerous coups - all in the 90's. Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 80's, Vietnam in the 70's, Korea in the 50's..... It goes on and on.