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#1
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This is just a hypothetical question, but could Russia be attempting to re-establish itself in the regain and hopefully take back it's former countries that broke away?
What does Russia have to gain from attacking Georgia? They acquire yet another state that could eventually join the NATO or the EU, and thus put them into a more defensive position, as was seen in Poland recently with the missle defence systems there. The West has been extremly pushy in regards to Russia in this regard, and this could be a reaction to this perceived aggression. Russia also has been slowly moving back towards a more authoritarian system (starting with Yeltsin), and given Putins background as ex-KGB, I could see his wanting to reestablish more of a Soviet style precense. If Georgia were to fall to Russian aggressions, what would be the next country that Russia would likley target? Polland would make sense, as would the Ukraine. Both countries have strong ties to the west and NATO and have been making Russia nervous. I think if Russia attempted to sieze back breakaway countries, there is really nothing the West could do about it, and I really doubt they could if they wanted to. The EU is already in a precarious energy situation, and going against Russia right now would further exacerbate it. The US is locked down both in Iraq and Afganistan, so probably couldn't provide much help even if the EU decided to help a Russian invasion of it's neighboring countries. If Russia were to pursue a policy of reestablishing it's dominance in the region, I think it would probably start another Cold War. Even if Russia has reasons for doing so, most would be seen as threatening and hostile to both the US and EU and probably chill relations for quite awhile.
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#2
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I don't think this could quite spark a cold war because Russia couldn't afford it. Russia's GDP is about 1/10th what ours is, and they just don't have the same infrastructure that they had during the cold war to produce the same war materials. Unless they start seizing other countries I don't see this escalating past Georgia, otherwise they would risk UN security counsel sanctions.
Georgia has a major oil pipeline that goes right through it that Russia has wanted for years, and this could be a bid to take control of that. Other than the oil pipeline, and Russia's pride, I have no idea what Georgia would mean for Russia. As I'm writing this, Russia captured the city of Gori which is about 40 miles away from the Georgian capital. Some military contributors on the news said that it seems like the Russians are using Gori as a staging point for an assault on the capital. Crazyness... |
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