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  1. #1
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    Blu-ray Nielsen/VideoScan 2008 Sales Metrics Thread: Ratios, Bestsellers, Weekly Charts etc


    This is a continuation of the Nielsen/Videoscan sales thread.

    The first posts will be updated weekly by me with a link on this post to the current weekly discussion.

    Discussion on current week sales figures is here (week ending 12/21)

    [http://forums.highdefdigest.com/sale...ts-etc-29.html

    older thread located here: http://forums.highdefdigest.com/sale...llers-etc.html
    Last edited by Kosty; 01-01-2009 at 02:25 PM. Reason: updated with link to current week discussion
  2. #2
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    Default Blu-ray versus DVD sales graphs from HMM data and top 20% updated thru 12/21 data


    Graphs are based off of the weekly data as published in Home Media Magazine.

    Last week on right (week ending 12/21)

    2 Column chart added















    Last edited by Kosty; 01-01-2009 at 03:13 PM. Reason: updated as of 12/21/2008 data
  3. #3
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    Default Blu-ray Top 20 Units 2008 trend graphs


    Note: these charts are now current with revenue charts posted above.
    Note: these charts are now current with revenue charts posted above.











    Blu-ray Top 20 Units 2008 trend graphs
    Last edited by Kosty; 01-05-2009 at 10:22 PM. Reason: updated through 12/21 data
  4. #4
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    Default HMM reported Blu-ray weekly sales data updated thru 12/21


    Please use scroll bar to see complete data set

    The data here is format totals, the last column is the top 20 title for each format comparison %.

    Newest week is on top of the chart.

    (-$111.67 M) (- $14.27 M) change from last week
    ( -24.20% ) ( -23.48 %)


    WEEKLY REVENUE CALCULATIONS

    Code:
    Data from HMM thru week ending 12/21/2008  (Newest week on top)
    
    
    Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
         revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   Releases
    
    12/21 349.84  46.51   396.35  11.73 %     13.29     11 %  Mama Mia 
    12/14 461.51  60.78   522.29  11.64 %     13.17     14 %  The Dark Knight
    12/07 240.59  23.64   264.23   8.95 %     09.83     11 %  Wanted,Naria: Prince
    11/30 386.35  27.68   414.03   6.69 %     07.16     10 %  Hancock     
    11/23 178.46  18.60   197.06   9.44 %     10.42     11 %  Wall-E 
    11/16 174.17  20.17   194.34  10.38 %     11.58      9 %  Hellboy II Kung Fu Panda 
    11/09 118.55  10.99   129.54   8.48 %     09.27      8 %  Get Smart
    11/02 118.26  12.22   130.48   9.37 %     10.33      8 %  Tinker Bell 
    10/26 123.16  17.71   140.87  12.57 %     14.38     12 %  The Incredible Hulk 
    10/19 129.41  17.94   147.35  12.18 %     13.86     11 %  Indiana Jones KOCS 
    10/12 126.10  14.37   140.47  10.23 %     11.40     10 %  Sleeping Beauty 
    10/05 144.38  26.84   171.22  15.68 %     18.59     13 % (4Q) Ironman
    
    9/28  118.94  10.92   129.86   8.41 %     09.18      6 % Sex in the City (3Q)
    9/21  111.29   8.87   120.16   7.38 %     07.97      8 %
    9/14  111.28   9.18   120.46   7.62 %     08.25      8 %
    9/07  111.11  10.60   121.71   8.71 %     09.54     12 %  Transformers
    8/31  124.23   9.11   133.34   6.83 %     07.33      6 %
    8/24  120.41   7.07   127.48   5.55 %     05.87      6 %
    8/17  111.17   6.19   117.36   5.27 %     05.57      8 %
    8/10  125.81   6.89   132.70   5.19 %     05.48      7 %
    8/03  124.93   9.42   134.35   7.01 %     07.54     10 %
    7/27  115.75   8.00   123.75   6.46 %     06.91      9 %
    7/20  112.23   7.61   119.84   6.35 %     06.78      8 %
    7/13  115.29   8.42   123.71   6.81 %     07.30     12 %
    7/06  121.63   7.86   129.49   6.07 %     06.46      7 % (3Q)
    
    6/29  129.76   8.88   138.64   6.41 %     06.84      7 % (2Q) 
    6/22  123.46   8.48   131.94   6.43 %     06.87      6 %
    6/15  160.20  12.73   172.93   7.36 %     07.95      7 % Bucket List Jumper
    6/08  123.74  10.02   133.76   7.49 %     08.10      9 % Rambo
    6/01  129.37  10.05   139.42   7.21 %     07.32     10 % National Treasure
    5/25  148.88  12.38   161.26   7.68 %     08.32      7 % National Treasure BOS
    5/18  126.46   7.99   134.45   5.94 %     06.32      5 %
    5/11  124.60   6.56   131.16   5.00 %     05.26      5 %
    5/4   101.25   7.08   111.33   6.54 %     06.99      5 %
    4/27  106.76   9.20   115.96   7.93 %     08.62      6 %
    
    1/06 thru       (1/01 thru 4/20 totals) 
    4/20 totals
          2,573.43 76.61 2,650.04  2.89 %     02.98      ? %
    
    
    1/06 thru
    4/20 average per week (16 weeks, average per week  1/06 thru 4/20)
            160.83  4.79  165.62   2.89 %     02.98      ? %     
    
    4/20  Unknown  9.92   Unknown  Unknown    Unknown    6 %
    
    4/13                                                 5 %
    4/06                                                 4 % (2Q) 
    
    3/30                                                 8 % (1Q)
    3/23                                                 6 %
    YEAR TO DATE REVENUE CALCULATIONS

    Code:
    Calculated Year To Date 1/1/08 thru 12/21/08)
    
    Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
         revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units
    
    YTD  7922.76 587.49  8510.25   6.90 %	  07.4152       ? % (total revenue thru 12/21) 
    
    (HMM Reported Year To Date 1/1/08 thru 11/16/08) 	 
    
    YTD  6306.01 410.28  6716.29   6.11 %	  06.51       4 % (total revenue thru 11/16)
    Blu-ray's YTD Market Share continues to grow from the reported 11/16 stats.



    http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...m782249PMN/#/4

    11/23 data adjusted with official stats from HMM staff

    (BD/DVD*100 is a relative market share index of Blu-ray to DVD sales)
    (BD/(DVD+DVD) is the Blu-ray market share expressed as a percentage)
    Last edited by Kosty; 01-01-2009 at 02:22 PM. Reason: updated thru 12/21 data
  5. #5
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    Default Sales estimates using The-Numbers.com top 20 data current thru week ending 12/21


    scroll bar to see complete data set

    Latest week is now first, BD/DVD Index is now added

    BD% on chart is BD/(BD+DVD)% of top 20 units (the pie chart %)

    Code:
    All units and % are top 20 titles that week for each format
    
    Date   DVDTop20  DVD%  TotalTop20  BD%   BDTop20   BD/DVD*100 (relative market share index)      
    
    12/21 14,589,744  89%  16,392,971  11%  1,803,227  12.36
    12/14 15,656,259  86%  18,204,952  14%  2,548,693  16.28
    12/07 13,065,998  89%  14,680,897  11%  1,614,899  12.36
    11/30 13,891,705  90%  15,435,228  10%  1,543,523  11.11
    11/23 12,762,159  89%  14,339,504  11%  1,577,345  12.36 
    11/16  8,951,543  91%   9,836,860   9%    885,317   9.89
    11/09  4,813,398  92%   5,231,954   8%    418,556   8.70  
    11/02  5,084,812  92%   5,526,970   8%    442,158   8.70
    10/26  5,870,781  88%   6,671,342  12%    800,561  13.64
    10/19  5,515,943  89%   6,197,689  11%    681,746  12.36          
    10/12  5,022,723  90%   5,580,803  10%    558,080  11.11          
    10/05  7,645,705  87%   8,788,167  13%  1,142,462  14.94  (4Q)	
    
    9/28   3,563,085  94%   3,790,516   6%    227,431   6.38  (3Q) 	      
    9/21   2,660,810  92%   2,892,185   8%    231,375   8.70 	       
    9/14   2,905,757  92%   3,158,432   8%    252,675   8.70   	     
    9/07   2,237,375  88%   2,542,472  12%    305,097  13.60	       
    8/31   3,700,328  94%   3,936,519   6%    236,191   6.38 	       
    8/24   2,721,414  94%   2,895,121   6%    173,707   6.38 	       
    8/17   1,300,437  92%   1,413,518   8%    113,081   8.70	    
    8/10   1,904,530  93%   2,047,882   7%    143,352   7.53 	      
    8/03   2,410,745  90%   2,678,606  10%    267,861  11.11	      
    7/27   1,999,902  91%   2,197,695   9%    197,793   9.89	     
    7/20   2,661,096  92%   2,892,496   8%    231,400   8.70	      
    7/13   2,161,864  88%   2,456,664  12%    294,800  13.64 	       
    7/06   2,344,112  93%   2,520,551   7%    176,439   7.53 (3Q)    
    
    6/29   3,387,810  93%   3,642,806   7%    254,996   7.53 (2Q)	    
    6/22   2,941,032  94%   3,128,757   6%    187,725   6.38   
    6/15   4,549,086  93%   4,891,490   7%    342,404   7.53 
    6/08   2,924,484  91%   3,213,719   9%    289,235   9.89     
    6/01   2,969,115  90%   3,299,017  10%    329,902  11.11     
    5/25   6,032,181  93%   6,486,216   7%    454,035   7.53    
    5/18   4,116,119  95%   4,332,757   5%    216,638   7.53     
    5/11   3,436,325  95%   3,617,184   5%    180,859   5.36     
    5/04   3,951,319  95%   4,159,283   5%    207,964   5.26      
    4/27   3,704,727  94%   3,941,199   6%    236,472   6.38      
    4/20   4,599,084  94%   4,892,643   6%    293,559   6.38 (2Q)
    ...by this methodology this is the:

    12/21 is now the second best unit sales week for the top 20 Blu-ray titles ever with an estimate of (down from 12/14's 2,548,693)

    The last five weeks now have been the highest five weeks ever as well.

    Calculations have been revised to take into account relative Blu-ray and DVD market shares.

    As the Blu-ray top 20 share % is apparently a market share number, the total reported DVD units would have to be divided by the DVD market share (ie for week of 10/5 Blu-ray = 13%, DVD would be 87% market share) to get a total DVD + Blu-ray = total discs sold, that would then be multiplied out by the Blu-ray market share to get the top 20 Blu-ray units sold

    In other words the calculation is
    DVD top 20 unit sales numbers / DVD top 20 unit sales ratio = (BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers
    then to get the Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ...
    (BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers X Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ratio = BD top 20 unit sales numbers
    or
    (BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers - DVD top 20 unit sales numbers = BD top 20 unit sales numbers

    (Same calculations would apply for individual Blu-ray sales of a title that is listed on the HMM weekly BD Market share chart where we also have the DVD sales for that title for the week on the-numbers DVD top 20 sales chart)



    http://the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/weekly/thisweek.php

    (BD/DVD*100 is a relative market share index of Blu-ray to DVD sales)
    (BD/(DVD+DVD) is the Blu-ray market share expressed as a percentage)
    Last edited by Kosty; 01-05-2009 at 09:57 PM. Reason: updated thru 12/21 data. reposted now with 12/21 data corrected.
  6. #6
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    Exclamation Notice To New Readers Of This Thread !!!


    The post below is the start of the historical discussions for older weeks sales figures. (ie the next post is for discussion of 10/12/2008 data.

    See first post for (hopefully current link to this weeks discussion, or log on the forum for "go to last unread post" icons, or go to near the end of the thread for the current active discussion.

    This is a sticky ongoing thread where the discussion goes on and on.

    I've tried to make it easier by keeping some of the initial posts current with updated data and a link to the current weekly discussion.


    Go to the new stuff and jump into the discussion.

    Thanks

    Kosty
    Last edited by Kosty; 11-19-2008 at 01:57 AM.
  7. #7
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    Exclamation NOTICE THIS IS OLD DATA: Week ending 10/12 Weekly Blu-ray Rollup


    EDIT: FOR NEW READERS OF THIS THREAD. THIS IS OLD DATA KEPT HERE FOR REFERENCE.

    SEE FIRST POST FOR LINK TO CURRENT ONGOING DISCUSSION ON THE NEWEST SALES FIGURES OR READ THE POST ABOVE THIS ONE FOR MORE INFORMATION


    Sleeping Beauty Week 1 Ironman Week 2





    Last edited by Kosty; 11-01-2008 at 04:47 PM. Reason: NOTICE TO NEW READERS OF THIS THREAD
  8. #8
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    Default The-Numbers DVD top 30 unit sales numbers week ending 10/12


    Code:
    		
    1	 1,337,751       Sleeping Beauty
    2	 1,215,615       Iron Man
    3	   653,090	 Happening, The
    4	   498,714	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan
    5	   267,818	 Sex and the City - The Movie
    6	   235,578	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall
    7	   156,383	 Simpsons, The - The Complete Eleventh Season
    8	    72,372	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The
    9	    71,837	 Joy Ride 2: Dead Ahead
    10	    58,594	 Office, The - Season Four
    11	    54,313	 Speed Racer
    12	    50,835	 Robot Chicken - Season 3
    13	    48,828	 Forbidden Kingdom, The
    14	    45,082	 30 Rock - Season 2
    15	    44,547	 Baby Mama
    16	    44,280	 88 Minutes
    17	    43,611	 Leatherheads
    18	    43,076	 Little Mermaid - Ariel's Beginning, The
    19	    42,273	 How I Met Your Mother - Season Three
    20	    38,126	 South Park - The Cult of Cartman
    
    	 5,022,723	Total Top 20 DVD Sales
    	
    21	    37,725	 Made of Honor
    22	    36,788	 Love Guru, The
    23	    35,718	 Barbie and the Diamond Castle
    24	    34,514	 Dora the Explorer - Dora Saves the Snow Princess
    25	    33,042	 Heroes - Season Two
    26	    32,240	 What Happens in Vegas
    27	    30,902	 Transformers
    28	    29,431	 Grey's Anatomy - The Complete Fourth Season
    29	    26,621	 Saw IV
    30	    24,481	 Saw
    		
    	   321,462	Total top 21-30 DVD sales
    
    		
    	 5,022,723	Total Top 20 DVD Sales
    	   321,462	
    	 5,344,185	Total Top 30 DVD Sales
  9. #9
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    Last edited by Kosty; 10-23-2008 at 10:27 AM.
  10. #10
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    Default Estimate of 10/12 Blu-ray unit sales by BD Market Share % & The-Numbers top 30 chart


    If we check to see what titles are on both the HMM BD Market share chart that we have the estimated DVD sales from The-Numbers.com top 30 sales chart we get the following sales figures for those Blu-ray titles that are on both charts.

    Code:
    DVD sales	DVD %	 DVD+BD	     `BD share	BD sales			
    1,337,751	90.68%	1,475,244	 9.32%	137,493	 Sleeping Beauty		
    1,215,615	84.02%	1,446,816	15.98%	231,201	 Iron Man		
      653,090	92.04%	  709,572	 7.96%	 56,482	 Happening, The		
      498,714	92.59%	  538,626	 7.41%	 39,912	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan		
      267,818	95.57%	  280,232	 4.43%	 12,414	 Sex and the City - The Movie		  
      235,578	92.17%	  255,591	 7.83%   20,013	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall		
       72,372	81.12%	   89,216	18.88%   16,844	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The		
       54,313	83.40%	   65,124	16.60%	 10,811	 Speed Racer
       16.625       65.02%     47,527       34.98%   16,625  Transformers
    That accounts for 541,795 top 20 Blu-ray units. The top 21-30 DVD bestsellers combined did 321,462 units.

    The top 20 Blu-ray titles are already selling more volume and contributing more to studio revenues than the top 21-30 DVD sales for the week.

    The top 4 Blu-ray titles would by themselves be on the top 20 DVD chart if listed as distinct titles by units sales.

    A lot of the Blu-ray titles are dormant already for DVD sales and have already fallen off the top 30 DVD sales chart.

    Code:
    BD Market Share  Title
    
    57.29%	Interview with a Vampire	
    53.72%	The Godfather	
    52.38%	Young Frankenstein	
    50.25%	300	
    49.51%	The Shining	
    46.42%	Troy: Directors Cut	
    40.71%	Batman Begins	
    36.57%	Beetlejuice	
    35.84%	The Departed	
    31.85%	I Am Legend	
    16.10%	Casino Royale


    The following DVD top 30 titles were not on the Blu-ray top 20 sales chart or on the BD Market share chart, 9 of the top 30 DVDs have not been released on Blu-ray yet.

    Code:
    7	156,383	 Simpsons, The - The Complete Eleventh Season			
    9	71,837	 Joy Ride 2: Dead Ahead			
    10	58,594	 Office, The - Season Four			
    12	50,835	 Robot Chicken - Season 3			
    13	48,828	 Forbidden Kingdom, The	        (on Blu-ray)		
    14	45,082	 30 Rock - Season 2			
    15	44,547	 Baby Mama			(on Blu-ray)
    16	44,280	 88 Minutes			
    17	43,611	 Leatherheads			(on Blu-ray)
    18	43,076	 Little Mermaid - Ariel's Beginning, The			
    19      42,273	 How I Met Your Mother - Season Three			
    20	38,126	 South Park - The Cult of Cartman
    Last edited by Kosty; 10-23-2008 at 11:00 AM.
  11. #11
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    Default 10/12 Top 20 Blu-ray units sold using HMM Top 20 Blu-ray Disc sales


    Using Ironman as 100.00 Index. Using the above for Ironman Blu-ray sales, we get the following top 20 Blu-ray sales estimates per title:


    Code:
    Index  BD sales	
    100.00	231,201		 Iron Man		
     68.80	159,066		 Sleeping Beauty		
     23.68	 54,748		 Happening, The		
     16.92	 39,119	 	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan		
      9.41	 21,756	 	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall		
      5.76	 13,317		 Sex and the City - The Movie		
      5.00	 11,560	 	 I Am Legend BD		
      4.58	 10,589	 	 300 BD		
      4.47	 10,335	 	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The		
      4.41	 10,196	 	 The Godfather BD		
      4.35	 10,057	 	 Beetlejuice	BD	
      3.33	  7,699	  	 Speed Racer		
      3.11	  7,190	  	 Batman Begins BD		
      2.79	  6,451	  	 Young Frankenstein BD		
      2.78	  6,427	  	 Interview with a Vampire BD		
      2.60	  6,011	  	 Casino Royale BD		
      2.44	  5,641	         Troy: Directors Cut BD		
      2.42	  5,595	         The Shining	 BD	
      2.41	  5,572	         The Departed BD

    Those titles with BD after them were not on the The-Numbers.com top 30 DVD sales chart, and had less than 24,481 DVD sales for the week.
    Last edited by Kosty; 10-23-2008 at 11:01 AM.
  12. #12
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    Default Week ending 10/12 Blu-ray unit sale estimate range for selected titles


    The index calculation and the BD market share calculation give a range for those titles on both lists.
    Code:
             Index Calc BD Share Calc 			
    	 159,066    137,493      Sleeping Beauty		
    	 231,201    231,201	 Iron Man		
    	  54,748     56,482	 Happening, The		
    	  39,119     39,912	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan		
    	  13,317     12,414	 Sex and the City - The Movie		  
    	  21,756     20,013	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall		
    	  10,335     16,844	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The		
    	   7,699     10,811	 Speed Racer
                N/A      16,625      Transformers
    Last edited by Kosty; 10-23-2008 at 11:02 AM.
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    reserved x 1
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    current weekly discussion starts here for week ending 10/18
    Last edited by Kosty; 10-23-2008 at 09:54 PM.

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