BD already 6% of market, 61% in 4 years

[Fettastic]

"Blu-ray Disc sales already represent 5% - 6% of all disc sales of the top new releases in the U.S. and will rise to 10% - 12% of top titles by year-end on overall sales of 45 million discs this year, according to Futuresource Consulting's Blu-ray update for the USA and Western Europe released today."
http://www.hollywoodinhighdef.com/bl...ail.php?id=232

"According to recent research from Futuresource Consulting, by 2012 between 40 and 50 per cent of consumer spending on video discs will move to Blu-ray [worldwide]."

"Blu-ray adoption so far has been on a par with sales of DVDs at the same stage: “Of course the format war made people hesitant, but now it's gaining momentum. In 2008 in the UK we're anticipating total sales of 4.5 million titles, In 2012 we're expecting sales of 93 million titles."

"This year we're looking at a total installed high-definition hardware base of just under 2.4 million players in use. By 2012 we expect that to be 12.9 million combined player base of PS3s and standalone Blu-ray players.”

"It will appeal to the mass market. The broadcast TV industry has driven consumer appetite for high-definition content. TVs are HD ready, and it will all encourage more title sales moving forward,”
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/...enComment=true

"Market predicts suggest that close to 45 million Blu-ray discs will be sold in the US this year. This is a four-fold increase on last year."
http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Art...rices-fall.htm


Here is a graph showing BD steadily gaining on DVD


Here is a graph showing BD prices falling in line with DVD prices.
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

So all is well for Blu-ray. It's chugging along at the same rate as DVD despite the many perils in its path.

Sorry doom-and-gloomers, you are wrong, as usual.

[michealo]

really curious what happens this xmas season, the price needs to come down under 199$ if they want mass adoption.

[GizmoDVD]

6%. No, still well under 1%. Why does everyone keep forgetting DVD has well over 200,000 titles releases while Blu-ray has under 1,000? Please tell me how a format, where its top selling title each week typically sells 30-40k, can get 6% of the market.

Here is what I want to know, whats the average so far with Top 20 BD vs DVD each week? 8-9%? How the hell do you think that BD has already captured 6% of the market when the above is only comparing the Top 20...what about the Top 100? What about after that when BD catalog titles are selling only 20-30 copies each? Simply amazing.

[onePIMPSLAP]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

6%. No, still under 1%. Why does everyone keep forgetting DVD has well over 200,000 titles releases while Blu-ray has under 1,000? Please tell me how a format, where its top selling title each week typically sells 30-40k, can get 6% of the market.

Wishful thinking? Regardless, it will happen and soon. The only way is up.

[Centauri]

I'm sure as hell wondering where you're getting 6% from. You might be able to squeeze out a number that high if you only look at new releases. But in total sales, BD only accounts for 1-2%.

[Beta-guy]

Originally Posted by michealo

really curious what happens this xmas season, the price needs to come down under 199$ if they want mass adoption.

I honestly think that is in the realm of possibility, the prices will prices after but in 2009 the non-sale price should be $199 or lower, the real growth will hit Holiday's 2009 but Blu-ray will get a nice boost in holiday's 2008.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by onePIMPSLAP

Wishful thinking? Regardless, it will happen and soon. The only way is up.

Really? That's cute. At what point does "up" stop? There is no way Blu-ray will ever replace DVD, no way. You won't see all the numerous TV on DVD boxsets migrate to Blu-ray and you won't see many of the titles available on DVD either. Eventually either Blu-ray will die or something will replace it (along with DVD).

I can't wait to read the typical responses here.

[GizmoDVD]

I went through both links - none mention 6%. Only one has something about NEXT YEAR

“We expect 2% of unit sales in the lead markets of the UK and France to be on BD this year and this is likely to hit 5-6% next year,” said Mai Hoang, a lead analyst in the Futuresource Home Video team

Once again Fett, you start a thread that is useless.

[Beta-guy]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

Really? That's cute. At what point does "up" stop? There is no way Blu-ray will ever replace DVD, no way. You won't see all the numerous TV on DVD boxsets migrate to Blu-ray and you won't see many of the titles available on DVD either. Eventually either Blu-ray will die or something will replace it (along with DVD).

I can't wait to read the typical responses here.

what is it that makes you so certain that Blu-ray WON'T replace DVD? the price is dropping, it does everything DVD can do, most if not all BD players upconvert DVD's and BD does that Web functionality/PiP that the HD DVD fanboys were raving about last year, not to mention the significant increase in picture/audio quality.

so enlighten us why is Blu-ray destined for failure?

[luclin999]

Originally Posted by Centauri

I'm sure as hell wondering where you're getting 6% from. You might be able to squeeze out a number that high if you only look at new releases. But in total sales, BD only accounts for 1-2%.

Pay people enough money and they can find a way to skew the numbers to say almost anything.

Example: Blu-Ray out selling DVD by 100% to 0%!!!!*

* Study was made based upon sales at one retail location which only stocks Blu-Ray disks and high definition media. Study should not be taken seriously. People believing in the results of this study should consult their physician immediately. No animals were harmed in the making of this report.

[GizmoDVD]

Originally Posted by Beta-guy

what is it that makes you so certain that Blu-ray WON'T replace DVD? the price is dropping, it does everything DVD can do, most if not all BD players upconvert DVD's and BD does that Web functionality/PiP that the HD DVD fanboys were raving about last year, not to mention the significant increase in picture/audio quality.

so enlighten us why is Blu-ray destined for failure?

Price is dropping? Where? Disc prices have gone up in MSRP, not down. Players may slowly be dropping, but there not even the ones that are full featured to take advantage of Blu-ray. Still 1.0 clogging the shelves.

Blu-ray is hanging on and unless they start selling a shit-ton of players this year and a ton of discs, the format will continue to be niche. Right now you guys go nuts when a 3 year old catalog title manages to sell 100k discs in 3 weeks.

[GizmoDVD]

Over America Blu-ray outselling its non-existent DVD counterpart by 100%!!! Blu-ray succeeds!

[Centauri]

Originally Posted by luclin999

Pay people enough money and they can find a way to skew the numbers to say almost anything.

Example: Blu-Ray out selling DVD by 100% to 0%!!!!*

* Study was made based upon sales at one retail location which only stocks Blu-Ray disks and high definition media. Study should not be taken seriously. People believing in the results of this study should consult their physician immediately. No animals were harmed in the making of this report.

Hahaha. You should write disclaimers.

[Fettastic]

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD

6%. No, still well under 1%. Why does everyone keep forgetting DVD has well over 200,000 titles releases while Blu-ray has under 1,000? Please tell me how a format, where its top selling title each week typically sells 30-40k, can get 6% of the market.

Here is what I want to know, whats the average so far with Top 20 BD vs DVD each week? 8-9%? How the hell do you think that BD has already captured 6% of the market when the above is only comparing the Top 20...what about the Top 100? What about after that when BD catalog titles are selling only 20-30 copies each? Simply amazing.

Sorry I just realized that I left that part out. I've updated the OP.

[Centauri]

"OF TOP NEW RELEASES"

How did you manage to miss that part Fett?

5-6% of New Releases is still only 1-2% of total sales. And given the higher cost of BDs on the whole, 1-2% of revenue accounts for less than 1% of the total titles sold.