GfK: Worldwide Blu-ray sales to quadruple in 2008, pick up DVD's slack

[zombieflanders]

JUNE 18 | Worldwide home entertainment software revenue will grow 17% between 2008 and 2010 to $78.2 billion, fueled by growing consumer demand for next-generation videogames and Blu-ray Disc, according to a new forecast from Media Control GfK International.

The report, which covers videogame and home video software, predicts worldwide consumer spending of $67.1 billion in 2008, up 10% from 2007 (including a foreign exchange gain on the dollar of about 2%).

"Worldwide, consumers spent $61 billion at retail on DVD and games software in 2007, more than double what was spent at the worldwide box office," said Amy Heller, Gfk U.S. president. "That amount is expected to grow to $67 billion in 2008 thanks to growth of new formats like the Wii. Hopefully, the industry will be able to band together on information sharing and data gathering for this somewhat elusive market, as clearly it will be an important segment to manage as the transition to digital copy is made."

Growth for this year and the next several years will be almost exclusively from the games sector, with game software for all console, PC and handheld platforms expanding to $33.3 billion this year, up 22% from 2007. Games growth will be about 18% in 2009 and 12% in 2010, according to the report.

Home video, meanwhile, will remain virtually flat at either side of $34 billion worldwide through 2010, with growth from the fledgling Blu-ray Disc format compensating for declines in the aging standard DVD.

Blu-ray sales will more than quadruple this year, to $1.5 billion worldwide, according to Gfk, then grow 184% in 2009 to $4.1 billion and another 94%, to hit $8 billion in 2010.

During the same timeframe, DVD sales will fall from $32.2 billion in 2008 to $26.2 billion in 2010. There are some bright spots globally, with home video sales in smaller territories including Italy, Germany and Australia expected to grow more than 10% this year.

The U.S. accounts for the largest share of the global home entertainment market by far, about 39% this year.

In the U.S., home video revenue is expected to decline about 3% this year, with DVD down 8%, to $13.9 billion, and Blu-ray more than quadrupling, to $888 million.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article....html?nid=3511

[Darth Daver]

An interesting read but by now the PS3 was supposed to be market leader in the console race. Sometimes the analysts get it wrong and with the current economic conditions I'm not going to take all predictions about BD player uptake with a pinch of salt.

[zombieflanders]

It is the market leader in Europe, and it's widely expected to do so. The timing may have been off, but not the expected results. And since Blu-ray already reversed losses in the home video industry this year, I fail to see how that is somehow invalidated because of the console.

[Philnerd]

Originally Posted by zombieflanders

And since Blu-ray already reversed losses in the home video industry this year,

I'm not sure if a couple percentage points off of a giant multi billion dollar cash cow is considered "losses" If the slight contractions in the DVD market are officially referred to as "losses", then I can only assume that Airlines would be kicking themselves for those sort of losses

[vinnie97]

Originally Posted by zombieflanders

It is the market leader in Europe, and it's widely expected to do so. The timing may have been off, but not the expected results. And since Blu-ray already reversed losses in the home video industry this year, I fail to see how that is somehow invalidated because of the console.

All of Europe? You mean Great Britain ditched the 360 now?

Hey, Darth, please tell us that's not the case.