Bluray standalone sales down despite format win...

[Bulldog]

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-993...ag=recentPosts

Interesting, they point yet again to DVD being "good enough" and that upconverting player sales keep increasing. What I found particularly odd was that most felt the diff. in quality wasn't enough to justify the increase in price of HDM. They say they were down 40% then up 5%, do they mean they're still down 35% or so?

So, although many felt that both formats caused confusion and kept people on the sidelines, NOT high prices, it seems maybe price does have more of an effect. I'll tell you this, I do miss all of the HDM undercutting as it allowed me to build my collections all that much quicker. Now I'm back to $20+ discs, and what's with all of the 3-star reviews lately??

[hifiguymi]

Some, again I say some, of the slowdown in sales is due to lack of product to sell. I can't get BD players right now and some models have been out of stock since January (Sony BDP-S500) and February (Pioneer BDP-95FD and Samsung BD-P1400). I know that the Samsung has been available at some stores here and there but not it large quantities. Supplies aren't going to get better until July for some models and as late as September for others.

[DarthXan]

I was pro HD DVD but didn't want blu to die, simply because I'm all for competition since consumer wins. Others felt that HD DVD should die, & now that it has they shouldn't complain. Enjoy Blu-ray. Ill enjoy 12.99 HD titles

[spacejamz]

how many times will it need to be REPEATED that post holiday sales are always lower than sales during the Christmas season????

what is so difficult about this concept to understand??

[crazzeto]

Originally Posted by spacejamz

how many times will it need to be REPEATED that post holiday sales are always lower than sales during the Christmas season????

what is so difficult about this concept to understand??

Also there's a recession on... Sorry, but price does play arole in sales. You can't simply discount it. I'm not saying bluray is getting ready to collaps, just that price is a big adoption rate hold out. Lower movie prices to around $20 and make more players (even P1.0 players till they run out) available in the $250 - $300 braket and I bet you'd see a quicker blu turn around. As it is people will continue adopting HDM as they can afford it which means right now when prices are higher it will be slower, later when prices drop more things will pick up.

[ack_bak]

Just for some reference. According to the CEA:
- 233K DVD players were sold in December 1998
- 125K DVD players were sold in Jan 1999
- 109K DVD players were sold in Feb 1999

As Spacejamz pointed out, sales for almost all CE devices are tyipcally higher in Q4 then fall in Q1-Q2 the next year. Look at video game consoles, iPods, etc.

The real barometer will be Q4 this year. And I also wonder about year over year growth which Crave did not report on. Something tells me BD player sales are still up this year over the same time last year.

The other problem I think we are seeing is the lack of 2.0 players, and I do agree that the price needs to drop, but I suspect that will happen in time for the peak holiday season in Q4.

[dvdman]

Originally Posted by hifiguymi

Some, again I say some, of the slowdown in sales is due to lack of product to sell. I can't get BD players right now and some models have been out of stock since January (Sony BDP-S500) and February (Pioneer BDP-95FD and Samsung BD-P1400). I know that the Samsung has been available at some stores here and there but not it large quantities. Supplies aren't going to get better until July for some models and as late as September for others.

Believe me lack of product does not have anything to do with it. My local Best Buy and Circuit City always have players in stock. There are other reasons that already have been discussed numerous times on this board as to why sales are slower then expected.

[vinnie97]

Originally Posted by dvdman

Believe me lack of product does not have anything to do with it. My local Best Buy and Circuit City always have players in stock.

That's anecdotal. I was at Fry's a few weeks ago and they had ZERO Blu-ray standalones in stock. You see? Anecdote cancellation.

[dvdman]

One more thing if this was not a big deal and expected then believe me an article wouldn't have been written about it. There must be some concern out there. I really believe the BD group anticipated sales numbers would increase "significantly" after Toshiba threw in the towel. That has not been the case so far.

[SkInWaLkEr]

Originally Posted by spacejamz

how many times will it need to be REPEATED that post holiday sales are always lower than sales during the Christmas season????

what is so difficult about this concept to understand??

So how long can the post holiday sales excuse be repeated. Up until the holidays?

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by SkInWaLkEr

So how long can the post holiday sales excuse be repeated. Up until the holidays?

We can keep using that "excuse" right up until someone can present a logical reason anybody in their right mind should expect sales to increase post holiday. This is a pretty standard seasonal trend we see across most markets of this sort.

So I ask you, what reason is there that we shouldn't expect to see this? I mean, does the fact that video game sales are down from the holiday season mean that market is in trouble? Does the fact DVD player sales and DVD unit sales mean post holiday are down mean that market is in trouble? Since this metric is being applied against Blu-ray as a negative, why isn't there doom and gloom about all these other products which exhibit the same damn trend?

I'm sorry, but just because people had unreasonable expectations about what would happen post format war doesn't mean the most logical and reasonable answer is just an "excuse". You'll see the biggest uptick in sales in the holiday. You'll see minor upticks in Q3 related to holidays, but there isn't giong to be some massive upswing in the middle of the year. Any expectation of such just doesn't fit with any historical precedence.

[Sinister184]

Thats because PS3 became king of BD standalones.

[crazzeto]

Originally Posted by kowhite

We can keep using that "excuse" right up until someone can present a logical reason anybody in their right mind should expect sales to increase post holiday. This is a pretty standard seasonal trend we see across most markets of this sort.

So I ask you, what reason is there that we shouldn't expect to see this? I mean, does the fact that video game sales are down from the holiday season mean that market is in trouble? Does the fact DVD player sales and DVD unit sales mean post holiday are down mean that market is in trouble? Since this metric is being applied against Blu-ray as a negative, why isn't there doom and gloom about all these other products which exhibit the same damn trend?

I'm sorry, but just because people had unreasonable expectations about what would happen post format war doesn't mean the most logical and reasonable answer is just an "excuse". You'll see the biggest uptick in sales in the holiday. You'll see minor upticks in Q3 related to holidays, but there isn't giong to be some massive upswing in the middle of the year. Any expectation of such just doesn't fit with any historical precedence.

Eh... I think we're exiting if not past the point of sales being slow due to holiday shopping... Heck, summer is just a stones throw away. I agree that the christmas shopping season is stronger, but that's because it's uncharacteristly fast when compared to the rest of the year. That is to say you can't look at black friday or christmas eve and say those are the "average sales figures".

Again, I'm not trying to rag on bluray here... I just think the more avid bluray supporters need to take a step back and realize that indeed adoption is just slow right now. There are a lot of reasons for it, gas prices, media prices, the economic slow down (whether they officially call it recession) combined with generally acceptable upscaling and much lower DVD media prices.

[dvdman]

Originally Posted by kowhite

We can keep using that "excuse" right up until someone can present a logical reason anybody in their right mind should expect sales to increase post holiday. This is a pretty standard seasonal trend we see across most markets of this sort.

So I ask you, what reason is there that we shouldn't expect to see this? I mean, does the fact that video game sales are down from the holiday season mean that market is in trouble? Does the fact DVD player sales and DVD unit sales mean post holiday are down mean that market is in trouble? Since this metric is being applied against Blu-ray as a negative, why isn't there doom and gloom about all these other products which exhibit the same damn trend?

I'm sorry, but just because people had unreasonable expectations about what would happen post format war doesn't mean the most logical and reasonable answer is just an "excuse". You'll see the biggest uptick in sales in the holiday. You'll see minor upticks in Q3 related to holidays, but there isn't giong to be some massive upswing in the middle of the year. Any expectation of such just doesn't fit with any historical precedence.

Isn't this what they call a "recession"?

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by crazzeto

Eh... I think we're exiting if not past the point of sales being slow due to holiday shopping... Heck, summer is just a stones throw away. I agree that the christmas shopping season is stronger, but that's because it's uncharacteristly fast when compared to the rest of the year. That is to say you can't look at black friday or christmas eve and say those are the "average sales figures".

Again, I'm not trying to rag on bluray here... I just think the more avid bluray supporters need to take a step back and realize that indeed adoption is just slow right now. There are a lot of reasons for it, gas prices, media prices, the economic slow down (whether they officially call it recession) combined with generally acceptable upscaling and much lower DVD media prices.

Go look at the DVD sales numbers at CEA. It has everything to do with Q4. Historically, Q1 and Q2 are slow for DVD player sales. Sales really pickup up in late Q3 (Sep) and in Q4. I expect Blu-Ray to do the same.

We may see sales pickup slightly this summer but Q4 will be the true test. If we see movies like Dark Knight, Iron Man, Hulk, Indy4, etc being released on Blu-Ray in time for the holiday sales rush, I think you will see big sales on BD players assuming they can meet demand and the prices are in the $299 and below range (sales).