Some Lionsgate sales data

[bt12483]

Lionsgate Entertainment will benefit greatly from Blu-ray's victory in the DVD format war, so shareholders will naturally be rewarded.

SMH Capital analyst David Miller said this week that Lionsgate clears $15 per Blu-ray unit in clear margin for library titles and a whopping $21 for new titles like "War."

And, the kicker is, he estimates Lionsgate sold an additional 1.3 million units of Blu-ray library product relative to his projections just a few weeks ago as the demise of HD DVD has sparked sales for Blu-ray.

As a result, Miller boosted his fiscal fourth-quarter revenue projection from $400.1 million to $419.1 million and his earnings-per-share estimate from 44 cents to 46 cents.


Besides "War," Miller says that Lionsgate has seen improved Blu-ray sales of "Total Recall, "Terminator," the "Saw" series and the "Rambo" box set.

As per usual, Miller noted in his most recent note that, with 5,600 titles, Lionsgate has the "unappreciated distinction of having the largest film library" compared with all major studios.

Miller has a price target of $14.20 on Lionsgate shares, which closed Thursday at $10.16.

Miller's bullishness is tempered only slightly by Lionsgate's need to get "back on track on its episode commitment to various networks after the WGA strike."

As such, the company's cash-flow estimate was adjusted downward "to account for a burst of spending in TV over the past three weeks."

Miller now assumes fiscal fourth-quarter free cash flow of $179.5 million, down from his previous estimate of $188.8 million.

Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce is slightly less bullish on Lionsgate but nevertheless recommends buying shares. He set an $11 near-term target on the stock and a $13 longer-term target.

Joyce is enthusiastic about Lionsgate's recently announced deal to distribute HIT Entertainment's popular family-oriented, non-theatrical DVDs.

After that deal was announced, Joyce upped his fiscal-year 2009 revenue estimate by $10.5 million to $1.345 billion.

Lionsgate "is an increasingly strong producer and distributor of content," Joyce said, and "is happy to increase its distribution activity, even off of other entertainment companies' product, as it has positive margin, market share and negotiating power benefits."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...dbbcac4a8cf80d

Much respect to Lionsgate. They have consistently had top notch PQ/AQ with their releases, and are one of the few studios using 7.1 audio.

[zombieflanders]

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Lee Stewart and mikemorel have been telling me over and over and over and over and over again that Blu-ray isn't making a profit. How could they be wrong?

Obviously, Lionsgate is lying.

[Favelle]

Originally Posted by zombieflanders

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Lee Stewart and mikemorel have been telling me over and over and over and over and over again that Blu-ray isn't making a profit. How could they be wrong?

Obviously, Lionsgate is lying.

Sweet, now we are at the point of pre-emptive strikes against any red ant retort.....paranoid much?

You have to wonder if some of the people here even WATCH movies anymore?

[ack_bak]

There you have it. This is exactly why studios will favor Blu-Ray over digital downloads. They clear $15-21 a movie! Compare that to digital downloads where they may clear $2-4 at most...

[zombieflanders]

Originally Posted by Favelle

Sweet, now we are at the point of pre-emptive strikes against any red ant retort.....paranoid much?

Uh, describing past posts and actions is kinda the opposite of pre-emptive.

You have to wonder if some of the people here even WATCH movies anymore?

My posting has been relatively light for a while now (most likely lighter than yours from what I can tell).

[iontyre]

You guys are happy Lionsgate is sticking consumers for $15-$21 profit on each disc? Time to demand a price cut, I think!!! That seems a bit excessive.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by iontyre

You guys are happy Lionsgate is sticking consumers for $15-$21 profit on each disc? Time to demand a price cut, I think!!! That seems a bit excessive.

We can demand a price cut, but I think most of us are realistic that the market will move those prices down at a normal pace, and that bitching on a message board isn't going to accelerate that.

[bt12483]

Originally Posted by iontyre

You guys are happy Lionsgate is sticking consumers for $15-$21 profit on each disc? Time to demand a price cut, I think!!! That seems a bit excessive.

Why do you think they made HDM? To just charge the same amount for it as DVD? The point was to start making money again, since DVDs are going for $3, etc. You have to accept that you are going to pay more for quality.

Every player isn't $98 and every movie can't be $10.

Lionsgate deserves whatever mark up they have more so than the other studios do - their releases are usually always top notch.

I would also like to reiterate that the most I have spent on any bluray is like $16+change for No Country for Old Men at Walmart with the $10 coupon (and 6% of that was taxes). Most of my purchases have come tax free from Amazon in the $12-15 range.

I am happy they put out good releases, unlike Universal and their dumping of shoddy transfer catalog titles At HDM prices that were marginally better than the DVD (Read: Bulletproof, etc.)

3:10 to Yuma is one of Lionsgate's latest with a superb transfer and 7.1 audio. Similar to New Line's latest releases.

No real complaints here. Great product, decent prices. Lionsgate (and NL) are setting the quality trend for HDM imo.

Other studios (Para/Uni/WB) should take notice.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by iontyre

You guys are happy Lionsgate is sticking consumers for $15-$21 profit on each disc? Time to demand a price cut, I think!!! That seems a bit excessive.

Or you can just wait for a sale like I do.. No reason to pay MSRP (or close to it) on a title. Lionsgate titles pop up on sales all the time for $12-18.. If you are not afraid of buying used, you can get movies for even less.

[Philnerd]

Originally Posted by bt12483

Shoot em up, 3:10 to Yuma and Pans labyrinth are 3 of Lionsgate's latest with superb transfers and 7.1 audio. And I have two of these, purchased for <$15 each.

No real complaints here. Great product, decent prices. Lionsgate is setting the quality trend for HDM imo.

Other studios (Para/Uni/WB) should take notice.

Shoot 'Em Up and Pan's Labyrinth are both New Line.

As for Lionsgate, glad to hear their new releases are looking good. Will probably be getting Rambo when it hits BD, so looking forward to that. Their first round of catalog titles... not so impressive.

[zombieflanders]

Originally Posted by iontyre

You guys are happy Lionsgate is sticking consumers for $15-$21 profit on each disc? Time to demand a price cut, I think!!! That seems a bit excessive.

Yes, because DVD never charged ~$500 for players and ~$30-$40 for discs less than two years after launch.

History. Context. Learn them.

[Ben]

Originally Posted by iontyre

You guys are happy Lionsgate is sticking consumers for $15-$21 profit on each disc? Time to demand a price cut, I think!!! That seems a bit excessive.

That's for the disc. It does not take into consideration
the cost of production in the first place. Rarely does
a movie see a return on investment with theatrical runs
alone.

[bt12483]

Originally Posted by Philnerd

Shoot 'Em Up and Pan's Labyrinth are both New Line.

As for Lionsgate, glad to hear their new releases are looking good. Will probably be getting Rambo when it hits BD, so looking forward to that. Their first round of catalog titles... not so impressive.

You are totally right. Getting my 7.1 studios mixed up.

[iontyre]

Originally Posted by kowhite

We can demand a price cut, but I think most of us are realistic that the market will move those prices down at a normal pace, and that bitching on a message board isn't going to accelerate that.

Not really bitching, just kind of shocked they are getting that much profit out of each disc!! That's like 50% or so of the retail price! Doesn't that seem like a lot of margin? I guess I just assumed production-shipping-advertising-etc. would be eating up a little more of the cost than that. And as for sales, hey, they are certainly including that in their average profit per disc. So in fact the margin at retail must be even higher!!! Wow, they must be REAL happy!!

[Philnerd]

Now the real question is; how do they make $15 on all those $14 Stargate and Terminator discs?