Niche my Buttocks! "[projected] 29.4M homes in 2008"

[Fettastic]

"Now that the format war is over, Blu-ray Disc hardware penetration will boost to 29.4 million homes worldwide this year, according to a report by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices Services.

Overall, 18.8 million Blu-ray units will be sold in 2008. Breaking down that figure, Strategy Analytics projects 4 million stand-alone set-tops, 13 million PlayStation 3 consoles and 2 million PC-based Blu-ray drives will sell globally this year.

Fueled by a clear high-definition format choice as well ongoing consumer transition to HDTVs, by 2012, sales of Blu-ray devices will be 57.4 million units. That just about doubles projected sales in 2008.

Also by 2012, more than 132 million homes worldwide will have at least one Blu-ray device.

“HD DVD’s withdrawal leaves the way open for Blu-ray to become a major revenue earner for technology vendors and content owners alike,” said David Mercer, principal analyst at Strategy Analytics. “The 265 million homes that will own an HDTV by 2012, and Hollywood’s need for a new growth engine, represent huge incentives for the industry to coordinate marketing activities and demonstrate unified support for the successor to DVD.”

The largest Blu-ray market by 2012 will be Europe, predicts the research firm, with 26.4 million Blu-ray devices being sold that year. The U.S. and Japan trail at 22.6 million units and 8.4 million units, respectively."

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6545140.html

[oxbladder]

29.4 million is still a niche.

[AV_Integrated]

It's very much the question that is on all our minds... Will it emerge as a dominant format? Will the term BD or Blu-ray become as standard as DVD, or CD, or VHS?

Lots of people here are hoping so, but there's no doubt that when PS3 is well more than half the market right now, it's not a guarantee of the format actually becoming a lot more than a niche product... Even if sales of players are through the roof.

I think by now a lot of people aren't suprised by the concept of PS3 selling 40+ million consoles in the next 5 years. That doesn't actually leave a lot of Blu-ray stand alone players being sold comparitively.

[JS1]

Weren't there a lot of sales estimates from both sides in 2007 that turned out to be way too optimistic? I wouldn't get too excited by projected numbers - until it happens, it ain't real. Also note that a lot of those are game consoles which may or may not be attached to HDTVs, and may or may not be used for Blu-Ray playback. Having said that, sales numbers on discs definitely have picked up in 2008... just don't believe any projections until they actually HAPPEN.

[JAGUAR1977]

I'll say one thing, I never saw a single mainstream ad for Laserdisc, SACD, DVD-A, either in the media or press.

I have already seen many Blu-ray ad's and discussisons on the subject. This is in the UK, which is 12 months behind the US market.

[HD-4-ME]

Originally Posted by oxbladder

29.4 million is still a niche.

If 29.4 million people went out to see a movie at $10.00 a ticket = $294 million in sales would you say that said movie only appealed to a niche market?

[Favelle]

Originally Posted by HD-4-ME

If 29.4 million people went out to see a movie at $10.00 a ticket = $294 million in sales would you say that said movie only appealed to a niche market?

Perhaps you didn't see his winking emoticon??

[cuco33]

See, and this goes along with my PS3 = BD player problem. Yes each and every PS3 IS a Bluray player but if 18 million, 30 million, etc million players are in existance, then why is a top award winning film like No Country for Old Men selling 60k-ish in it's first week? Why not a quarter of a million? why not 1 million? etc... This is your typical marketing spin here guys. Hopefully those PS3 owners will start buying Blu-rays, because if every PS3 owner bought just ONE BD any given week, we would see a huge volume movement like never seen before and it would make news.

HDM market will grow... by how much is all dependent on the publics acceptance and adoption. I'm sure 3 months from now all the PS3s sold, even if they ALL were for just gaming, would be included in millions more Blu players, albeit not be used for Blu at all

[cleeve]

Originally Posted by cuco33

See, and this goes along with my PS3 = BD player problem. Yes each and every PS3 IS a Bluray player but if 18 million, 30 million, etc million players are in existance, then why is a top award winning film like No Country for Old Men selling 60k-ish in it's first week? Why not a quarter of a million? why not 1 million? etc... This is your typical marketing spin here guys. Hopefully those PS3 owners will start buying Blu-rays, because if every PS3 owner bought just ONE BD any given week, we would see a huge volume movement like never seen before and it would make news.

HDM market will grow... by how much is all dependent on the publics acceptance and adoption. I'm sure 3 months from now all the PS3s sold, even if they ALL were for just gaming, would be included in millions more Blu players, albeit not be used for Blu at all

Well first of all, DVD, which has hundreds of millions of players on the market, didn't even sell 1 million copies of No Country for Old Men. Somewhere around 750k if I remember correctly. So 66K isn't that bad for a still very young format when compared to 750k.


I'm excited to see how well I Am Legend sells last week. I could see it breaking records.

[snp]

Originally Posted by cuco33

See, and this goes along with my PS3 = BD player problem. Yes each and every PS3 IS a Bluray player but if 18 million, 30 million, etc million players are in existance, then why is a top award winning film like No Country for Old Men selling 60k-ish in it's first week? Why not a quarter of a million? why not 1 million? etc... This is your typical marketing spin here guys. Hopefully those PS3 owners will start buying Blu-rays, because if every PS3 owner bought just ONE BD any given week, we would see a huge volume movement like never seen before and it would make news.

HDM market will grow... by how much is all dependent on the publics acceptance and adoption. I'm sure 3 months from now all the PS3s sold, even if they ALL were for just gaming, would be included in millions more Blu players, albeit not be used for Blu at all

You expect a movie which sold ~700k on DVD to sell 250k-1000k on Bluray? Is this a gag post? "70ish" (rounding up two, rather than down eight) is pretty impressive 'in context' - ie comparing it year to year against comparable titles.

No, PS3 doesn't aid in linear fashion, but yes it does sell HDM. Each player out there is a player out there. Some of those players may never be used for Bluray, but the bigger Bluray becomes, and the more affordable and available it becomes, the more of these systems will either be switched on, or be replaced with newer players and used as backups.

Incidentally, there aren't 18/30 million players in the US atm selling No Country for Old Men. Let's wait and see how many a comparable title sells next year (presumably) when there are that number sold.

[93xfan]

Originally Posted by AV_Integrated

It's very much the question that is on all our minds... Will it emerge as a dominant format? Will the term BD or Blu-ray become as standard as DVD, or CD, or VHS?

Lots of people here are hoping so, but there's no doubt that when PS3 is well more than half the market right now, it's not a guarantee of the format actually becoming a lot more than a niche product... Even if sales of players are through the roof.

I think by now a lot of people aren't suprised by the concept of PS3 selling 40+ million consoles in the next 5 years. That doesn't actually leave a lot of Blu-ray stand alone players being sold comparitively.

the key would be having the Xbox 720 and PS4 use Blu-ray (which i think they will). if that's the case, then i can certainly see Blu-ray being mass market.

[Taffy]

Just curious. Anyone seen any hard sales figures for BD players at all for the past 3 months? What are these optomistic sales estimates based on?

[Stew4HD]

Also remember that number includes worldwide, PS3 and PC drives... The sad part is the actual numbers of disc sold is pretty low in comparison to the number of players out there. But, I guess the same will be said about SD's low attach rate...

[The BJD]

Originally Posted by HD-4-ME

If 29.4 million people went out to see a movie at $10.00 a ticket = $294 million in sales would you say that said movie only appealed to a niche market?

If 29.4 million people buy a ticket for one movie a year, yes that is niche. How many people own all 400+ blu-ray releases? The post makes no sense. Are you implying every blu owner will buy a certain title?

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by The BJD

If 29.4 million people buy a ticket for one movie a year, yes that is niche. How many people own all 400+ blu-ray releases? The post makes no sense. Are you implying every blu owner will buy a certain title?

Actually, even in today's market, a film grossing $294 Million would be a blockbuster. Nothing niche about it, even if it the only film people go out to see...

HD-4-ME was responding to a different "sarcastic" comment. In no way was he implying every blu-ray owner will buy a certain title... Although when Iron Man , The Dark Night or Indiana Jones are released you might get close...


fitprod