2010 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

Top 20 Unit Sales Estimate Year to Year Comparison Summary (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Updated thru week ending 6/20/10 units data.

2009 to 2010 YTYx      YTY + %(Week Ending 1/03/10-6/20/10 compared to matching 2009 period)
                              (The-Numbers.com reported DVD Top 20 units, calculated Blu-ray Top20 units)
Blu-ray    1.578       57.79 %
DVD	   0.771      -22.89 %
DVD+BD	   0.862      -13.78 %

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Bishop_99]

1.2 million total for The Book Of Eli seems good when compared to its box office performance.

Was there a 28 day rental window for Shutter Island as there was for The Book Of Eli from Warner? I read that by mid June Paramount would end the rental window but I'm not sure if that came into affect for Shutter Island or not. The difference between the theatrical and home video performance of these two movies seem pretty substantial. The Book Of Eli $95 million (1.2 million units first week) while Shutter Island $130 (700,000 units first week). Could the rental window have such an impact or is this more because of a rush factor, actors, replay value and word of mouth of these two movies, or just a combination of everything?

[Kosty]

I think that the Denzel Washington just plain outperformed the other guy as a action hero and The Book of Eli was a slightly better match for high definition Blu-ray as a more pure action orientated slam bam picture.

You are exactly right though is seeing that this week out performed its box office pedigree and last week was a bit soft.

[Kosty]

I'd be curious about the rental window aspect also, but I think its just a matter of the star power and genre more than anything else.

[Bishop_99]

I guess that is it, Denzel Washington seems to perform well in the home video market. Even with its low box office performance, The Taking Of Pelham 1 2 3 with John Travolta performed well in the home video market. Thanks for the updates.

[Kosty]

I think that Shutter Island was a mixed genre horror thriller and that Leonardo DiCaprio is just not as much as a draw for Blu-ray or PS3 users as either Clint Eastwood was in Gran Torino or Denzel Washington was in The Book of Eli. At least thats for initial home video sales, and high definition ones even more. Its not really that Shutter Island did that bad, its just that the other titles performed better.

Additionally, all in all though its a pretty tough time of the in general for any type of release in the hot days of summer. Its generally pretty tough revenue or unit volume wise for any releases until the summer or start of the fall.

[Taffy]

I think that Shutter Island was a mixed genre horror thriller and that Leonardo DiCaprio is just not as much as a draw for Blu-ray or PS3 users as either Clint Eastwood was in Gran Torino or Denzel Washington was in The Book of Eli. At least thats for initial home video sales, and high definition ones even more. Its not really that Shutter Island did that bad, its just that the other titles performed better.

Additionally, all in all though its a pretty tough time of the in general for any type of release in the hot days of summer. Its generally pretty tough revenue or unit volume wise for any releases until the summer or start of the fall.

Yeeeeeeeee Gods man....what sane movie goer, having seen "Shutter Island" in the theaters would ever want to see, much less...buy that thing. Once is enough for any lifetime. Glad I just rented it.

I'm waiting for "The Book of Eli" to hit my local HD broadcast channel. Not even worth a $1 rental in my book.

[Kosty]

Yeeeeeeeee Gods man....what sane movie goer, having seen "Shutter Island" in the theaters would ever want to see, much less...buy that thing. Once is enough for any lifetime. Glad I just rented it.

I'm waiting for "The Book of Eli" to hit my local HD broadcast channel. Not even worth a $1 rental in my book.

Well a lot of people disagreed with you on The Book of Eli at least. That yellow and blue bar is about 1.2 million units. You views on Shutter Island were closer to the mark as a bit more than half that number last week ponied up to buy that title at around 700,000 units.

I also think both of those titles got a fair amount of buys from people that did not actually see them in their theatrical runs. Thats often the case nowadays. Thats easily the case with a lot of home media collectors and casual consumers, who buy or rent without having seen the release in the theaters. I'm not sure if thats better or worse for these genre titles though.

I don't post up the rental side much, but a lot of people rented The Book of Eli this week as well as it was far and beyond the best rented title, so plenty thought it was worth the coin there as well.

On Shutter Island, the promos for it really did not interest me that much to give me the urge to spend premium money for it, that is to pay for a theatrical viewing or buy a release week Blu-ray, and the word of mouth comments I got from friends that watched it was.....no reason to rush to watch it So you have more information that me as I have not personally seen it yet.

Identifiable Blu-ray Discs Unit Sales by Title for the Week Ended 6/20/10
						
Estimates of Blu-ray units sold by title by two methods:
BD#Index is the estimate of units sold per title based on the index numbers on the Blu-ray Disc Top 20 chart.  Each title units are estimated based on its Index number as a percentage to the #1 bestselling Blu-ray title. 
BD#BD% is the estimate of units sold per title based on the Blu-ray marketshare off the Top 20 Sellers chart or the BD Title Share chart computed against the DVD units sales per title reported each week on the-numbers.com US DVD Sales Chart.  

BDRank	BDindex BDshare DVDunit  BD#Index BD#BD%

1	100.00	35.18%	 788,548 427,972 427,972 	The Book of Eli	  Warner
2	 37.52	45.95%	 153,057 160,575 130,120 	Avatar	  Fox
3	 34.33	32.76%	 297,283 146,923 144,839 	Alice*in Wonderland	  Disney
4	 26.41	32.40%	 231,833 113,027 111,115 	Shutter*Island	  Paramount
5	 18.50	78.75%	 unknown  79,175 unknown 	2012	  Sony Pictures
6	 13.51	33.31%	 116,705  57,819  58,291 	From*Paris*With Love	  Lionsgate
7	 11.19	50.77%	  36,037  47,890  37,164 	Law Abiding Citizen	  Anchor*Bay
8	 10.06	29.27%	  79,959  43,054  33,089 	Sherlock Holmes	  Warner
9	  9.99	38.52%	  51,413  42,754  32,213 	Life	  BBC Video
10	  9.08	58.14%	 unknown  38,860  unknown 	Zombieland	  Sony Pictures
11	  8.07	47.97%	  29,571  34,537  27,264 	The Hangover	  Warner
12	  6.65	73.09%	 unknown  28,460  unknown 	Terminator: Salvation	  Warner
13	  6.20	12.00%	 184,363  26,534  25,140 	When in*Rome	  Disney
14	  5.83	 unknown  54,173  24,951  unknown 	Toy Story 2	  Disney
15(tie)	  5.73	24.85%	  77,672  24,523  25,684 	The Wolfman	  Universal
15(tie)	  5.73	 unknown  60,561  24,523  unknown 	Toy Story	  Disney
17	  5.69	25.33%	  62,216  24,352  21,105 	Youth in Revolt	  Sony Pictures
18	  5.02	56.51%	 unknown  21,484  unknown 	District 9	  Sony Pictures
19	  4.94	14.00%	  93,522  21,142  15,225 	Invictus	  Warner
20	  4.79	 unknown  47,234  20,500  unknown 	Edge of Darkness	  Warner
		38.84%	  49,974  unknown 31,736 	Legion	
		15.00%	  76,710  unknown 13,537 	The Hurt Locker	
		15.00%	  54,410  unknown  9,602 	True Blood: The Complete Second Season
	
				 1,409,054 1,144,096 		

Top 20  Est	864,940

Identifiable Blu-ray Discs Unit Sales by Title for the Week Ended 6/13/10
						
Estimates of Blu-ray units sold by title by two methods:

BD#Index is the estimate of units sold per title based on the index numbers on the Blu-ray Disc Top 20 chart.  Each title units are estimated based on its Index number as a percentage to the #1 bestselling Blu-ray title. 

BD#BD% is the estimate of units sold per title based on the Blu-ray marketshare off the Top 20 Sellers chart or the BD Title Share chart computed against the DVD units sales per title reported each week on the-numbers.com US DVD Sales Chart.  

BDRank	BDindex BDshare DVDunit  BD#Index BD#BD%

1	100.00	27.68%	 657,124  251,510  251,510 	Alice*in Wonderland
2	82.51	27.46%	 504,211  207,521  190,869 	Shutter*Island
3	47.54	27.75%	 293,011  119,568  112,541 	From*Paris*With Love
4	37.21	39.41%	 119,596   93,587   77,790 	Avatar
5	20.76	25.27%	 154,293   52,213   52,174 	The Wolfman
6	16.86	42.83%	  45,342   42,405   33,969 	Life
7	15.00	51.76%	  28,217   37,726   30,276 	The Hurt Locker
8	12.74	69.71%	 N/A       32,042 	 N/A 	2012
9	12.63	72.41%	 N/A       31,766 	 N/A 	Zombieland
10	10.41	46.56%	  25,496   26,182   22,214 	The Hangover
11	 9.01	36.73%	  33,671   22,661   19,547 	Iron Man
12	 8.86	 N/A 	 N/A 	   22,284 	 N/A 	Gladiator
13	 8.20	 N/A 	  55,264   20,624 	 N/A 	Toy Story
14	 8.07	 N/A 	 N/A       20,297 	 N/A 	Toy Story 2
15	 7.90	 N/A 	 N/A       19,869 	 N/A 	Tombstone
16	 7.86	 N/A 	 N/A       19,769 	 N/A 	District 9
17	 7.44	 N/A 	 N/A       18,712 	 N/A 	Saving Private Ryan
18	 7.11	27.43%    38,442   17,882   14,530 	Legion
19	 6.91	51.57%	 N/A       17,379 	 N/A 	The Dark Knight
20	 6.70	13.00%    94,494   16,851   14,120 	True Blood: The Complete Second Season
		29.76%	  32,535   N/A      13,785 	The Road
		30.16%	  31,739   N/A      13,706 	Sherlock Holmes
		16.00%	  60,521   N/A      11,528 	The Blind Side
		22.60%	  34,105   N/A       9,958 	Edge of Darkness
		17.86%	  37,325   N/A       8,116 	Invictus
		 9.00%	  81,089   N/A       8,020 	Dear John
		17.99%	  35,353   N/A       7,755 	The Spy Next Door
		15.00%	  41,202   N/A       7,271 	New Moon
		 8.00%	  51,311   N/A       4,462 	Valentine's Day
		28.04%			   N/A   	Taken
		26.51%			   N/A 	        Up

				 1,090,849 	 904,139 	
	Top 20 calc	829,443

[Mr. Cinema]

Shutter Island held very well in week 2. I'm sure that $19.99 price at Target and Amazon likely helped.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

Here was an observation on how Blu-ray Top 20 units share have been increasing recently:

I ask because one makes it look like there have been several weeks in the last year where a good week on BD has out done a bad week on DVD.

That is indeed the case for the top 20 unit estimate. There have been some weeks now where the best Blu-ray top 20 titles for the week unit sales volume has been better than the worst DVD weeks.

In the yellow/blue stacked charts, you can see that in a couple times, the Blu-ray value (blue) of the best Blu-ray weeks has actually surpassed the DVD+Bu-ray value on the worst DVD weeks. For example, for the week of Avatar, the estimated top 20 Blu-ray unit sales that week were greater than the total of the top 20 unit sales for both DVD and Blu-ray for the week before.

On the red and blue charts, you can see that a lot of times now the Top 20 unit sales volume for Blu-ray (in blue) on the best Blu-ray weeks has now surpassed many of the poorer weeks for DVD (brown red). On the red/blue charts both the DVD and Blu-ray lines start from the bottom of the graph. On the yellow/blue graphs the DVD total (in yellow) starts on the top of the Blu-ray data (blue) so the top of the yellow is the combined total of DVD and the Blu-ray segments.

Kosty what is the difference between the 3rd from the bottom and 4th from the bottom graphs in post #8685? One is yellow and blue and the other is brown and blue. I ask because one makes it look like there have been several weeks in the last year where a good week on BD has out done a bad week on DVD. The other only seems to make that case for one week in the last year. My first thought was that one was units and one was revenue but they are both labled the same.


Or have you been studying graphing over here?
http://www.skytopia.com/project/illusion/illusion.html

In any set of the routine weekly updates it generally only units or its revenues in the set. The only exception is the green Top 20 Unit percentage line and area charts as we get that data when we get the revenue figures. I include that also on the revenue weekly updates.

http://i48.tinypic.com/rsu6ad.jpg
http://i46.tinypic.com/16blsld.jpg

The charts are both bar charts for Top 20 unit estimates, but the yellow and blue one has the DVD portion (yellow) stacked on top of the Blu-ray portion (blue) I'm using yellow as an indicator that the top level is a combination of the magnitude of the DVD and Blu-ray values, even though the DVD portion is the yellow portion. When I have the data overlaid or side by side, I'm using dark brown/red for DVD values to indicate the top level of the red is the magnitude of DVD only. Its the same as the are charts.

I do similar things for the revenue sets of graphs.


Stacked ( a few times where Blu-ray alone on a week is better than the worst DVD+Blu-ray weeks)




Side by side (quite a few times where the best Blu-ray weeks are better than the worst DVD weeks)



Its the same data as these in line/area format.


Stacked




Overlaid

[Kosty]

Or have you been studying graphing over here?
http://www.skytopia.com/project/illusion/illusion.html

LOL. No your eyes are not paying tricks on you. There indeed are already some weeks where the profitable segment of top 20 unit sales on Blu-ray's best weeks have been better than the worst DVD weeks.

Note though that only the units of the top 20 titles for the week, not the overall units sold of all the thousands and thousands of available titles for each format. Its also a slightly different list of top 20 titles for DVD and for Blu-ray each week, although it was a lot more variation in 2008 and 2009. In 2010 the list of top 20 titles for each week is much closer for DVD and Blu-ray and in many weeks the Top 20 Sellers chart (DVD+Blu-ray unit sales combined) is getting to be almost identical to the Top 20 Blu-ray chart.

That has not been the case with revenues though as the large mass of routine catalog DVD sales revenue just is too large a value for Blu-ray to eat into yet just because of the large number of DVD titles in circulation. But note that a lot of that DVD volume is very low revenue/sale and the Top 20 segment is a lot more profitable per unit.

[Kosty]

We are not at the point where any single week has more Top 20 unit volume for Blu-ray either (DVD has always been more for any given week) but some weeks the Blu-ray top 20 unit volume is getting pretty high.

[Kosty]

Thanks for the explanation Kosty. Makes sense now. The long arm of DVD does keep grinding away. But T-20 is where most of the focus is. It's good to see that Blu-ray is in the fight up there.

Indeed. The top 20 titles for each week is also where the profit is for the studios and retailers and Blu-ray's growth there is the first thing to secure to extend the profitable packaged media revenue stream.

There obviously has been some significant progress in that metric this year.

There have been some weeks where Blu-ray is doing a very large share of the top 20 unit share.

That is a lot of the units of the Top 20 sellers for the week are Blu-ray sales, so much so that 25-30% of the unit sales are Blu-ray skus for those titles and probably at least 35-40% (or more) of the profitable revenues of those unit sales are on Blu-ray as the Blu-ray version costs at least $5 more than the DVD sku.

Here are the charts for the last three weeks and the two weeks after Avatar. One chart is the Blu-ray unit marketshare percentages for all the identifiable titles on the Top 20 Sellers list and the Blu-ray Title MarketShare chart for the week and the other is a weighted ratio of sales by DVD and Blu-ray marketshare for each of the Top 20 Sellers each week created by taking the weighted weekly Top 20 Sellers index numbers and coloring it according to the Blu-ray marketshare that week for each title.



Blu-ray Top 20 was 24.15%





Blu-ray Top 20 was 22.06%





Blu-ray Top 20 was 25.20%





Blu-ray Top 20 was 25.25% (5/02/10)





Blu-ray Top 20 was 30.41% (4/25/10)

[Kosty]

Week ending 6/27/10



$15.03 M for Blu-ray ( +3.80% BD YTY)
112.07 M for DVD ( -22.16% DVD YTY)
127.10 M DVD+Blu-ray(-19.79% DVD+BD YTY)

the total box office of new releases was down -7.44%

13.66% Blu-ray revenue share (last year 9.14%)
20.88% Blu-ray top 20 unit share (last year 12%)

‘Eli,’ ‘Green Zone’ in Split Decision


The Book of Eli

By : Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 30 Jun 2010
tarnold@questex.com


It was a split decision on the national home video charts for the week ended June 27.

Warner Home Video’s The Book of Eli remained the top-selling DVD and Blu-ray Disc for the second consecutive week, while newcomer Green Zone, from Universal Studios, was the top rental.

Green Zone was a close second on the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert and Blu-ray Disc sales charts, in each case selling more than 90% as many copies as Book of Eli. Green Zone had earned $35 million in theaters, to $94.8 million for Book of Eli.

On Home Media Magazine’s rental chart, Green Zone was a clear winner, with Book of Eli dropping to No. 2 after debuting the previous week at No. 1. Rental activity for Book of Eli slipped 17%, and overall the title generated 59% as many rental transactions as Green Zone, a military thriller starring Matt Damon.

Other than Green Zone, several other new releases landed on the chart, including Summit Entertainment’s Remember Me, a romantic comedy with a $19 million theatrical gross that debuted at No. 4 on the sales chart and No. 3 on the rental chart, and the Paramount/DreamWorks comedy She’s Out of My League ($31.6 million), which bowed at No. 9 on the sales chart and No. 6 on the rental chart.

The theatrical success of Toy Story 3 propelled the two previous installments in the Disney/Pixar franchise back onto the sales charts. Toy Story 2 was No. 3 in both overall disc sales and in Blu-ray Disc sales for the week, while the original Toy Story was No. 5 on First Alert and No. 4 on the Blu-ray Disc chart.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...decision-19855


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-62710



http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-62710

Blu-ray Sales, June 21-27: Eli Keeps His Book (Update)

Posted July 1, 2010 03:15 AM by Juan Calonge

Warner's The Book of Eli was again the top-selling title on Blu-ray, according to data from Nielsen VideoScan First Alert for the week ended June 27. Universal's Green Zone came in a close second. Meanwhile, Disney's Toy Story and Toy Story 2 jumped to third and fourth place respectively, propelled by the theatrical release of Toy Story 3.

Top ten

(1) The Book of Eli
• Green Zone
(15) Toy Story
(14) Toy Story 2
(2) Avatar
(3) Alice in Wonderland
• She's Out of My League
• Entourage: The Complete Sixth Season
(4) Shutter Island
(9) Life
Blu-ray sales percentage
Green Zone: 29%
She's Out of My League: 21%
Entourage: The Complete Sixth Season: 20%
Remember Me: 10%

Overall sales figures

Blu-ray sales revenue: $15.03 million (up 3.81% from the same week last year)
Packaged media sales revenue: $127.10 (down 19.79% from the same week last year)
Blu-ray revenue share: 11.8%

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=4815