2010 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 07:35 PM

When Star Wars on Blu-ray is released in 2011 it will be like Lord of the Rings in 2010 only an order of magnitude higher in sales and no other major new releases will probably be scheduled with it. It will easily be on the Blu-ray Top 20 Seller and the Top 20 Seller list as well.

If its a Blu-ray+DVD combo the Star Wars discs would probably easily be #1 Top Seller and if it was standalone Blu-ray it probably would be #1 on the Blu-ray charts and high on the overall Top 20 Sellers charts as well. But thats a year from now and we won't know when in the holiday season it will be exactly released and what will be scheduled against it.

But no way it would not be on the Top 20 Blu-ray list the week it would be released.

Here are the stats and commentary for the Lord of the Rings release week on 4/11/10 a few weeks before Avatar.

HMM Nielsen data temporary update thread

**Taffy** · 09-11-2010 07:40 PM

Originally Posted by Kosty

To me and many others it seems that 3000 titles already available on Blu-ray includes hundreds of titles that we would want to own if the price was right. So it would just seem a bit strange to many of us that someone would say only 50 titles were worth owning. Thats all.

Kosty...
You're not being realistic nor fair.

I remember reading a while back that most DVD collections number about 50 titles on average and THIS is with a 15,000 to 100,000 DVD title inventory.

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 07:45 PM

4/11/10 weekly summary and charts

Post 1 of 2

Spoiler:

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 07:47 PM

4/11/10 weekly summary and charts

Post 2 of 2

Spoiler:

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 07:53 PM

Originally Posted by Taffy

Kosty...
You're not being realistic nor fair.

I remember reading a while back that most DVD collections number about 50 titles on average and THIS is with a 15,000 to 100,000 DVD title inventory.

Again my issue was not with the actual count of anyone's collection but with the concept that only 50/3000 titles were worth owning. I think we have since clarified the issue and moved beyond it.

For DVD a small segment of consumers are uber collectors and own a lot of titles and many of those guys now are upgrading to Blu-ray over DVD for new releases and for much of their existing collections.

I do agree with you that many consumers will never own 50 Blu-ray Discs and most will never own anywhere as many Blu-ray titles as they do DVDs, but they also have had a decade to collect DVDs many at $5-$10 prices and there is no need to upgrade many DVDs to Blu-ray versions for much of their collections.

But he and I and even you are not average consumers at all.

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 08:01 PM

If Lord of the Rings did 120,000 to 180,000 units on Blu-ray for a $99 box set in April of 2010 and dominated the weekly Blu-ray stats and showed up well on the DVD inclusive Top 20 Stats , Star Wars is going to do much better in the holiday season a year and a half later into Blu-ray's growth when it gets released next year on Blu-ray or as a Blu-ray+DVD combo re release.

Originally Posted by Taffy

Nice post Mal...

About the high-lighted text, I'm wondering if even Star Wars will be a big hit on the same order as Avatar. Consider this. The following model may never make Blu ray's top 20 list but could make some respectable bucks.

I could be way off base here but if I was Lucas, I would make Star Wars available on Blu ray ONLY as a special 6 film set and price it at $180 and grab some easy money from early buyers. One year later I'd split the set in two. I'd wait another year than finally release the titles individually. Two years later, I'd re-release the entire set again but this time as a 2D to 3D conversion effort and follow the same release model.

I think this makes a lot of sense. Retailers would love it because it saves on display space. Furthermore...Blu ray buyers should be happy as it avoids the confusion and sense of helplessness that many Blu ray buyer's experience when faced with multiple catalog choices at their local retailer.

What do ya think??? Hey....if Fox can charge $100 for those Alien movies.....

The best-selling new release of the week was the Lord of the Rings trilogy at 165,000 units. Meanwhile, Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans sold about 40,000 units and The Lord of the Rings (1978 Animated Film) chimed in with 20,000 units sold.

Code:

Identifiable Blu-ray Unit Sales for the Week Ended 4/11/10

BDRank	BDindex BDshare DVDunit BD#Index BD#BD%  
				
1	100.00	100.00%	 	 188,878 188,878 	The Lord of the Rings: TMP Trilogy
2	78.10	29.63%	350,339	 147,514 147,514 	Sherlock Holmes

**Taffy** · 09-11-2010 08:36 PM

Originally Posted by Kosty

When Star Wars on Blu-ray is released in 2011 it will be like Lord of the Rings in 2010 only an order of magnitude higher in sales and no other major new releases will probably be scheduled with it. It will easily be on the Blu-ray Top 20 Seller and the Top 20 Seller list as well.

If its a Blu-ray+DVD combo the Star Wars discs would probably easily be #1 Top Seller and if it was standalone Blu-ray it probably would be #1 on the Blu-ray charts and high on the overall Top 20 Sellers charts as well. But thats a year from now and we won't know when in the holiday season it will be exactly released and what will be scheduled against it.

But no way it would not be on the Top 20 Blu-ray list the week it would be released.

Here are the stats and commentary for the Lord of the Rings release week on 4/11/10 a few weeks before Avatar.

HMM Nielsen data temporary update thread

...and by May 9th LotR had slipped off the Blu ray top 20 sales chart.

2010 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 08:43 PM

Well duh, that was a month later, and after Avatar.

Even still Lord of the Rings was still on the Blu-ray Top 20 chart after 4 weeks, so saying Star Wars would not be on the top 20 Blu-ray chart on its release week next year is probably a bit off base.

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 08:50 PM

These are new charts I'm using now in the sales thread based on combining the HMM pie chart with the The-Numbers Top 30 DVD charts and its 1-30 DVD revenue numbers by title?

It basically splits the HMM reported slice of the published pie chart into three additional segments , that of the new DVD releases for the week, the other top 30 DVD titles not released that week and all other DVD sales not on the Top 30 DVD chart.

I unfortunately do not have the data to split out the Blu-ray sales though into the same categories as I don't know the revenues for the Blu-ray titles, like I do for DVD off the the-numbers.com weekly US DVD Sales Chart.

Just wanted to bring it to your attention.

I have the data to be able to create one for each week since the start of my revenue data for Blu-ray and DVD since January of 2008.

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yeah, I noticed that Kosty in the other thread. Pretty cool feature.

Whats really going to be neat is that its taking me about 5-10 minutes per less to do each week and I have all the data to do it for all of 2008 2009 and 2010.

I'm going to make up a new thread just for it and probably group the data by month since January 2008.

Its really cool , especially since I stumbled around and found a way to use the depth function to highlight the volume for the week.

EDIT: OK I just loaded it up as a pdf file here up on docstoc.com

Packaged Media Sales Revenue by Category 4/25/10 through 8/29/10 pie chart slide show

Kinda interesting.

I'll upload the 4Q 2009 and all of 2010 sometime soon. Thats even cooler.

**bruceames** · 09-11-2010 09:36 PM

Even if you go back 20 weeks and include Avatar week, sales are up only 17%. Which of course, is due to one year having Avatar and the other year having nothing even close to that. In fact, only two of those 2009 weeks Blu-ray broke 30 million: The week of Watchman/Coraline and the week after. The next highest week was 23 million. The Blu-ray summer of 2009 was nothing to write home about, and the fact that 2010 can't even beat it....is pathetic. We're talking here about a new format, who's previous low year over year growth for one quarter was just under 60 percent (last year the lowest was over 100%). So to go from over 100% last year, to 60% last quarter, to a negative this quarter, is really surprising. You just can't pass that off on sucky releases.

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 10:05 PM

We have not finished the 3Q yet.

Some Blu-ray friendly titles are coming up in the next three - four weeks.

I'll try to upload the 4Q 2009 expanded detail pie charts tomorrow to give another perspective on how the trends look like for the fall as they are significantly different than the rest of the year. As I said, new releases are more significant in the fall and thats currently Blu-ray's strength.

Heres a few weeks to consider

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 10:10 PM

You just can't pass that off on sucky releases.

I'm still saying its mostly sucky releases during that period for the most part and the fact that the volumes are generally lower overall in the summer besides the two or so blockbuster weeks. Also a lot of the issue is the two summer blockbuster weeks this year were just not as good as Watchmen/Coraline and Fast & Furious weeks were last year. How Clash of the Titans and Kick-Ass did this year, as good but not so good weeks is most of the difference, and thats release related, even if they were not actually sucky by themselves, they just were not as good for Blu-ray as last years summer events.

**comixguru** · 09-11-2010 10:21 PM

Originally Posted by bruceames

Even if you go back 20 weeks and include Avatar week, sales are up only 17%. Which of course, is due to one year having Avatar and the other year having nothing even close to that. In fact, only two of those 2009 weeks Blu-ray broke 30 million: The week of Watchman/Coraline and the week after. The next highest week was 23 million. The Blu-ray summer of 2009 was nothing to write home about, and the fact that 2010 can't even beat it....is pathetic. We're talking here about a new format, who's previous low year over year growth for one quarter was just under 60 percent (last year the lowest was over 100%). So to go from over 100% last year, to 60% last quarter, to a negative this quarter, is really surprising. You just can't pass that off on sucky releases.

The first three quarters of the year are not as important as Q4 when looked at individually. That said, they are critical to full year numbers. It is highly unlikely that just Q4 will turn the course of YoY numbers.

The usual wave away criticism will of course include "Q4 is the bomb", "it's the economy, stupid", and finally, "the releases are suck". Feel free to make up variations on these and include pie and other charts.

Blu-ray is boring, it's adoption is by inertia. Players are cheaper than ever and literally busting open with features. There's more movies than ever available. It's possible this will change but the current trends suggest it's hitting some barrier to mass adoption and full SD DVD replacement.

Blu-ray is not igniting buying frenzy or collection building in consumers. It is tinting a receding tide of physical sales.

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 10:30 PM

Q4 is basically equal to the first three quarters combined in sales revenues for DVD and Blu-ray and we have still have most of the highest month of the 3Q left to go.

It will be interesting to see. but its clear to me that the 4Q performance of Blu-ray has the potential to br much stronger than the rest of the year and I think its foolish to read too much into the summer numbers post Avatar. I trust you all will be appropriately enlightened when it occurs.

**Kosty** · 09-11-2010 10:33 PM

Blu-ray is not igniting buying frenzy or collection building in consumers. It is tinting a receding tide of physical sales.

I like that quote. The difference in our assessments is that I see Blu-ray as tinting that pool of packaged media sales faster than you do and I see the tide receding slower than many here seem to imply as its still a $20 billion dollar sell through and rental market which is not small by any means.

Thread: 2010 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

Thread Tools

Posting Permissions