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08-02-2010 02:01 PM #1756
Quite simply one of the dumbest things you have posted in a while.

Are you not aware of what films were released last year compared to this year? Or are you willfully ignoring the facts? Nevermind, it's a rhetorical question.Are you seriously comparing marketshare to DVD, when blu-ray did $13 million??? The same DVD that declined $82 million YoY this week??? Where did all those people go? Not to blu-ray, apparently.
As referenced by your post.I didn't think you would seriously be looking for somebody to respond to these "records".
Wierd things happen when the numbers get this low. Maybe Bruce Willis bought a couple hundred blu-rays for his friends.
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08-02-2010 02:44 PM #1757
Clash of the Titans will most likely sell well on Blu-Ray. It did well at the box office (although bad reviews and word of mouth may hurt home video sales). That said, it is the type of movie that Blu-Ray owners may choose to buy on HDM vs DVD. As for not much to buy all summer long, why single out just Blu-Ray? Release dates affect all home video formats including DVD, VOD, etc. I don't know why you seem so surprised that releases affect sales. This gets brought up to you time and again and you continue to not understand. I won't bother trying to explain it again as you can't seem to grasp such a simple and basic concept.
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08-02-2010 07:03 PM #1758
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08-02-2010 07:18 PM #1759"It's unbelievable to have sold so many DVD’s {more than Avatar & Mamma Mia put together}. Funnily enough I've not got any of my own as my family take them all, although ironically I have got two copies of Avatar and three Mamma Mias."
Peter Kay - The tour that doesn't tour tour, O2 London June 2011. -
08-02-2010 07:51 PM #1760
Why Blu-ray growth and sales gains are not at the expense of DVD but its extension
Wow. Nice question and I'll give you my best take I can muster at the moment.Would you say BRs "growth" percentage has more to do with it growing? Or DVD shrinking?
Both.
As technology advances cloud based stuff inevitably will grow in scope, usefulness, quality and consumer acceptance, but for the near future, perhaps five years, perhaps a decade, its mostly going to be a rental alternative as DVD and its next generation DVD high definition successor Blu-ray has consumer acceptance and routine purchasing and rental habits to consider. DVD's success has meant more and more consumers see it as an upgrade to all that they like about DVD including ease of use, predicable reliable long term ownership rights, portability across decades old devices and assurance that what you buy today you can view in the future. Consumers see hundreds, no make that thousands of inexpensive DVDs and a growing numbers of Blu-ray under $15, on a typical weekend retail shopping trip, that they can be assured can play on $99 players from dozens of studios, content providers and manufacturers and understand and can trust the concept.
Cloud based stuff is still geeky, standards insecure and there is little consumer trust in long term ownership and its near term inherently a replacement for rental not long term collection and ownership.
So getting back to your question because DVD is almost at 100% saturation in USA households, by its nature any growth Blu-ray will have will be substitution for DVD sales. But thats a lousy question. Of course it is as DVD is with virtually 100% of TV households and certainly 100% of active movies buyers and renters as 0% use VHS or UMD anymore. Even alternative collectors like me and others, with HD DVR movies on external hard drives also use optical disc for rental and owned collections.
So of course, by the nature of the issue every new Blu-ray owner is coming from the pool of DVD owners.
Thats not the point.
Its what their habits would be if Blu-ray was not here as an high definition option for watching and collecting movies.
Blu-ray is importantly extending the lifespan of optical based packaged home media sales to another generation of user patterns in the high definition usage area and preserving the lifecycle of packaged media sales and the studios harvesting of revenues from their catalog for another period of time. Perhaps then cloud based streaming and Ultraviolet download keychests will be ready to go along with the infrastructure to make it happen. Of course then the assets may be worth less per transaction.
So even without Blu-ray DVD would be shrinking but together the two with sell through and rental will be steadier in revenues for a few more years. DVD has been in decline for theatrical catalog revenues since 2005, that was hidden by TV series box sets for a few years. DVD catalog sales revenues (maybe not even really units though) for a few reasons including the exhaustion of viable assets to release new on DVD, lower discounted price points and consumers being exposed to most titles available over the last decade. With nothing new to release on DVD except new movies, no wonder catalog revenues are declining.
Blu-ray sales of new releases, are gaining traction, heck last week for the very first time a new release had a higher Blu-ray unit marketshare than its DVD counterpart. Thats not insignificant.
If Blu-ray substitutes for DVD in new releases where most of the money and profit for retailers and the studios are made, then thats an industry win, and consumers win as they get HD versions and soon 3D versions in the highest available audio and video quality available. So any Blu-ray gains there in DVD consumers upgrading to Blu-ray is a next generation DVD upgrade , not a shrinkage of DVD , but a transition of DVD owners to DVDs extension of a high definition successor and complementary format. Thats day and date new release stuff.
Where Blu-ray may "gain" is to re energize some portion of high volume catalog collectors who have slowed their standard definition DVD buying habits as they have upgraded to HDTVs and now bigger and better HDTVs and stopped buying DVD because they have most of what they want on DVD, and only buy DVD when its so cheap its a throw away purchase or rent it. For many of those people, and that includes me and many others here, I'd not consider buying something I own on DVD ever again, but I'd not only consider but already have started to re buy stuff on Blu-ray, especially if I think its cheap enough high quality enough, and likely to be the last time I ever buy the title to own, ever ever again. I might spring for a future 3D version, but when I buy a Blu-ray of a DVD I already own, thats a growth purchase that has nothing to do with taking away from a DVD sale, its newly harvested income from me for the studios and retailers.
Both are good for everyone if the agreed upon price is right and the quality and experience is the best it can be.
Now if you meant that Blu-ray percentage gains are only because the ratios are getting better as DVD is shrinking , then no thats really not the case if the combined DVD+Blu-ray sales are maintained for new release sales as DVD catalog sales are declining anyway as consumers move to high definition displays and already own what they have already on DVD. Or have the option to rent it for cheap on Netflix or Redbox or Blockbuster.
But as Blu-ray gains in absolute magnitude, if its gains are in new releases, thats just transitioning DVD owners to next generation DVD, if its gains are in catalog sales, then thats found money thats partially substituting for DVD catalog sales that are declining anyway, and would decline even if Blu-ray never existed. The fact that as more Blu-ray players are sold, that is also extending the usefulness and lifetime of DVDs too into the future, as Blu-ray players are fast modern upconverting DVD and CD players too..
"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno
"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks
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08-02-2010 08:35 PM #1761
Extremely well written and well thought out.
But the real point here is that folks are less inclined when it comes to purchasing packaged media. Regardless of the color of the package or resolution.
That's it. Simple enough.
Mixing the colors of the case (or the resolutions of the discs) as a defense when discussing market share does not help bolster the eroding package media distribution model. -
08-02-2010 09:05 PM #1762
It has to with both.
When considering this matrix both are in play.
Is BD market share increasing? Sure. Nobody would deny this.
But as DVD packaged media sales fall off the cliff (as the J6P abandons the format) the die hard BD junkies are in fact able to claim more market share.
That's what happens when we all discuss "percents". In reality we are in a revenue free fall - regardless of color or resolution. Just look at the results - since 2006.
But it makes BD look good to the uninformed. And good fodder for the cheerleaders. Which are more informed than we all think they are as they continue to grab at straws. Anything. Grabbing at anything as packaged media loses hundreds of millions routinely.
Tough to defend but it is entertainment to witness. -
08-02-2010 09:23 PM #1763
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08-03-2010 12:36 AM #1764
Thank you all.

Million monkey's typing and blind squirrels find the occasional nut and all that.
No matter what the volumes or levels, Blu-ray is now around to stay and that means all new releases and now probably most of the viable studio library back catalog of theatrical titles will eventually get Blu-ray versions.
As the new releases get Blu-ray versions alongside the DVD ones, and more consumers buy them, then Blu-ray becomes more mainstream and even older DVD releases gain as they can be played on modern fast better performing next generation DVD players.
As the previously released titles on DVD, now new to Blu-ray, get released any additional income they generate over the dormant sales of their long released DVD versions, at any higher price point, to avid collectors, enthusiasts or even casual occasional consumers or long tail discounted subscription or kiosk renters is more than the studios and retailers would generate from DVD alone if Blu-ray did not exist.
I don't mind downloads and streaming and Netflix and Redbox and DISH and cable and DD and IVOD. Its all good. But I'm really glad Blu-ray is also in the mix as a high quality ownership alternative and rental option as well..
"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno
"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks
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08-03-2010 12:45 AM #1765
Interesting response to my essay.
Originally Posted by Kosty
Wow. Nice question and I'll give you my best take I can muster at the moment.
Both.
... Of course then the assets may be worth less per transaction.
... Where Blu-ray may "gain" is to re energize some portion of high volume catalog collectors who have slowed their standard definition DVD buying habits as they have upgraded to HDTVs and now bigger and better HDTVs and stopped buying DVD because they have most of what they want on DVD, and only buy DVD when its so cheap its a throw away purchase or rent it.
Originally Posted by rlsmith at AVS
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"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno
"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks
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08-03-2010 12:47 AM #1766
Lots of good concerns.
I'm glad Blu-ray has now reached the mass market tipping point and no matter how things move going forward Blu-ray is going to survive, new releases will come out on Blu-ray and most of the viable back catalog that got DVD releases now will eventually get a Blu-ray version as well..
"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno
"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks
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08-03-2010 12:52 AM #1767I think as more Blu-ray hardware is sold and Blu-ray household penetration rises catalog sales will naturally rise over time for Blu-ray as the retailers and studios cater to the growing size of Blu-ray owners over time. No need to hurry the demise of DVD if they can still find a way to make money, but Blu-ray catalog sales will grow as they respond to the market and more and more consumers find more and more Blu-ray to buy.-- the studios have done a decent job with Blu-ray day-and-date theatricals, but the lack of emphasis on producing and MARKETING catalog on Blu-ray is causing a failure to uptake the format at the rate that it should. Certainly Blu-ray will become the packaged medium for new titles. It increasingly looks like Netflix and streaming will, however, become the channel for catalog since the studios are only marginally interested in promoting catalog on Blu-ray.
The studio libraries may be exhausted to new to release DVD versions, but thats still thousands and thousands of new to Blu-ray titles that are ready to sell over time..
"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno
"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks
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08-03-2010 01:31 AM #1768
Blu-ray survive? Of course Blu-ray will survive. But it will in no way contribute as it was originally conjured up to contribute.
That has already been made clear.
And the consistent and repeated capitulations (downward capitulations) as to what the definition of Blu-ray success is (by even its most fanatic supporters) has left a forensic trail which can be well defined - as obvious as day glo orange when looking back. -
08-03-2010 01:48 AM #1769
This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.
Last edited by Kosty; 08-09-2010 at 01:59 PM.
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"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno
"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks
follow me on Twitter -
08-03-2010 03:33 AM #1770
EMA DVD+BD EOY 2009 sales/rental $17,9 B (9 x DD) - total transactions 3.5 B up 2.8%
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...rew-2009-20194EMA: Video Transactions Grew in 2009

By : Chris Tribbey | Posted: 02 Aug 2010
ctribbey@questex.com
Consumer transactions for Blu-ray Disc, DVD and digital delivery hit 3.5 billion in 2009, up 2.8% from the previous year, according to a new report from the Entertainment Merchants Association (EMA). The transactions cover both rental and sellthrough.
DVD and Blu-ray sales accounted for $17.9 billion in sales, the report concludes, nine times the revenue generated by digital delivery.
“While there has been a great deal of focus recently on the slippage of revenues in the DVD market, the untold story is that consumers’ embrace of home entertainment remains very strong and packaged media is the preferred delivery instrument,” said EMA president and CEO Bo Andersen.
“Digital distribution is clearly an important segment of the home entertainment market and will continue to grow in market share in the coming year. While it is tempting for industry outsiders to say ‘disc is dead,’ as the saying goes, reports of its demise are grossly exaggerated.”
The data is the result of research by Adams Media Research, DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group, The NPD Group, Parks Associates and Screen Digest. For more information visit www.EntertainmentMerchantsAssociation.org.
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"A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno
"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks
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