2010 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[ack_bak]

Nice job side stepping his question. So what is the answer?....since you know so many people who have ipods, compared to only a handful who have Blu-Ray....why isn't the sales growth for itunes higher??

Yes, he never addressed the question. Same with video game consoles from Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony. All these millions of devices sold in the last twelve months, yet software sales either remain flat or are sometimes even declining.

These guys keep telling us that since so many Blu-Ray players have sold and movies are so cheap we should be seeing constant increases in sales week after week. Yet, we don't see that for any other home entertainment platform as far as I can tell. But I love how they hold Blu-Ray to some higher standard.

[Kosty]

Rob. I thought you guys were all on the same team? Why rub it in with Kosty like this uh? I don't think he was purposfully ignoring that simple concept when he thought there would not be anymore sub 10% weeks. I mean that was months ago. And more players have been sold since then to even further guarentee that from not happening. I don't think I like your insinuation!

I'm certainly aware of that issue. I mention it when appropriate as its a statistical fact that the large amount of DVD releases at retail that sell relatively low volumes per individual title add up to a lot (around $100 million week after week after week.....) and that the much lower total of Blu-ray releases and their retail placement don't add up to that much right now ($10 million or so a week now and growing each quarter as Blu-ray household penetration rises and Blu-ray becomes more prominent at retail over time).


I really don't mine rhetorical questions either, that you already know the answer for, but seem to be all innocent about. I do try to answer those in detail if I easily can.

Were there any weeks in 2009 that did not beat the same week in 2008? Just curious.

Every week in 2009 beat the comparable week in 2008 revenue wise, a couple weeks the top 20 unit numbers were less. (second week in Oct was close) Every week in 2008 probably did so as well to the 2007 weeks.

But the difference is that 2009 started to have some significant sales weeks in peaks and valleys and the lowest 2010 week valleys are starting to bump against the 2009 seasonal peaks.

But the Blu-ray unit and revenue marketshare averages are always higher YTY on those weeks, and DVD is worse YTY on those weeks as well, so its obviously release related as most weeks Blu-ray is significantly higher.

Looking at the historical sales graphed out its likely that the last week of July first week August might be YTY competitive as thats last year when Watchmen and Fast and Furious were released which saw 3Q sales spikes as well for Blu-ray sales. Probably will not be spelling doom for Blu-ray either if the matching 2010 revenues fall a bit short on those early record setting weeks as well.


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Originally Posted by Malanthius
I guess you missed the point. So are you saying that 37% is the new average for family films on BR? My point is it's not your typical "family" film. It leans PS3 demo more than some of you want to admit. Otherwise BR just went mainstream and 37% is the new standard right?

Seriously now.

Who is saying that 37% is now an expected Blu-ray unit marketshare percentage for family titles?

I don't see anyone saying that at all. Thats your strawman argument benchmark that you are creating.

What it does show is that Blu-ray is now capable of achieving that kind of marketshare on titles that are not the pure PS3 demographic ones from last year or years before.

If anything the Blu-ray unit marketshare for the new release of "Life" at 57% and Toy Story and Toy Story at 34-35% make that even clearer. Those are really family titles.

Top 20 Sellers Blu-ray unit marketshare week ending 6/06/10

54.00%	Life
40.00%	Avatar
37.00%	Alice*in Wonderland
35.00%	Toy Story
34.00%	Toy Story 2
32.00%	The Wolfman
29.00%	The Road
29.00%	Legion
24.00%	Iron Man
22.00%	Edge of Darkness
20.00%	True Blood: The Complete Second Season
20.00%	Invictus
17.00%	The Princess and the Frog
14.00%	The Blind Side
11.00%	It's Complicated
10.00%	Dear John
10.00%	Valentine's Day
 8.00%	Tooth Fairy
0.00%	Burn Notice: Season Three
0.00%	Alice in Wonderland: Un-Anniversary Edition

You understand what he's trying to do, right?

He wants you to agree so then when the next family title comes out and doesn't hit that marketshare, he'll jump out of the bushes to say I told ya so.

[thesaintsarecoming]

Are you trying to compare iPods and videogames to BR? Really? I think I need two sets of hands to count how many people I know that own an iPod. One hand will do if I count BR owners and I cod have lost a digit in shop class and still have extra to count. . BRs success or lack there of cannot be compared. It's not even in the same league when we are talking acceptance and willing adoption.

Answer. the. question:

Malanthius and Mike. Here is another riddle I am looking for you to solve. iTunes. All those new iPhones, iPads, Macbooks, iMacs, iPods, etc. We are talking tens of millions of new devices this year alone... ...
So.. Blu-Ray growth is 84% year over year to this point and iTunes is flat year over year. After all those sales of iPads, iPhones, iPods, etc since 2009.. Wow.. Can't wait to hear the explanation from you guys since you think Blu-Ray is failing.. Is iTunes failing too? Videogames? Please give us your expert analysis.

[Kosty]

I see a lot of posts from you saying the same thing over and over Kosty. Almost seems like you are preparing us for the below 10% numbers? Maybe to ease the pain? (yours that is) I still do not see how BR can fall below 10% 4 years in. Not when you consider all the catalog out there at unheard of discounts! Who cares if there are a few slow D&D releases? People should be scooping up all these killer deals right? Plenty to buy! Never before released in HD!

Unless catalog isnt really selling well. I know I've said that before but am always reasured that things are well and studios are happy with catalog sales. So there is probably no way we are going to see below 10%. No way! I'm going to have to go with you on this one man. Aint going to happen!

Hey Mal:

You keep on repeating over and over again that my predictive powers are pathetic or my analysis or understanding of this Blu-ray market and potential for long term growth is not credible because I allegedly said Blu-ray would never fall ever ever again below 10% unit marketshare on any given week said the Raven nevermore. Or something like that...



But I can't find when I said where Blu-ray would never go below 10%.



Now I openly admit I may have said something along the lines I thought it unlikely that it would , or something like I thought 10% or so would seem to be an appropriate floor for that metric based on Blu-ray's growth, but when I say things like that, I'm normally not absolute, so kinda seems my exact wording would be relevant. Or if you asked me to state a number that would be the floor Blu-ray unit marketshare and the pie chart would be, I might have given you an answer if directly asked.

Now, I'm not saying I did not say something similar, but the funny thing is I just searched the entire year of 2010 in this forum and I really can't find anytime that I said Blu-ray would never fall below 10% unit marketshare in the future.

Would you kindly point out when I said that exactly so I can clarify my statement and see where you are either getting that misunderstanding or you can show me where I said that?

Seems my precise wording might be useful, but like I said the funny thing is I really don't remember saying something that precise and although I'm pretty fluent in searching stuff here, for some reason I can't find an instance where I said that.

I'm really curious to see as I don't remember saying that and usually would not except if I was asked by you for my opinion on the subject.

Can you help me out as it seems you know exactly where I said that?




(If anyone else remembers feel free to chime in.)

[Kosty]

Again just on the issue of the relative sales metrics and Blu-ray falling below that mystical even number 10% point:

Blu-ray has a base of sales that is fair lower than DVD because DVD is a mature format and Blu-ray is just starting to grow into early majority status in the technology adoption curve.

We just have a fundamental difference of opinion of the significance that Blu-ray is still smaller ( I notice its growing year over year at a steady rate) and is not at the magnitude of DVD or is not totally replacing DVD anytime soon. Nor is it likely to ever completely kill of DVD.

I just don't think not reaching that pretty impossible standard makes Blu-ray a failure at all. I guess you do.

Suffering when I compare them to DVD sales.

I think it's moot to compare or not to compare. It doesn't matter. On it's on bd is still growing and still has a sizable population to grow into. At best 33 percent of the current HDTV population has BD. So in regards to hardware penetration it hasn't really hit a glass ceiling.

Until the hardware market is saturated, we won't really know where BD's peak will be and thusly it's plateau. But I do think it's a bit premature to consider it not doing much better than it is doing now; however you quantify doing much better.

There's still room for growth and considerable amount of that growth. And if you don't see it in sales, you'll see it in rentals, or rental requests on neflix or bbi. Once neflix and bbi release some figures on how their BD rental growth has been, we'll have a good idea of BD's growth as well.

On a side note, you seem to qualify your deductions from using DVD as the bar and standard, which is okay, I guess. Considering that DVD is probably the gold standard and I agree that BD will never be that good, and right now isn't doing anywhere nearly as well.

_BUT_ again, that's different from the prediction of it slowing down and not doing much better than it is now...

And since it looks like you consider it suffering when it's compared to DVD, it is a growing format and has room to grow, you are comparing a mature format with a growing format, which makes little sense to do so as well...hell everything is suffering in regards to sales compared to DVD.

That's just a poor marker to use, Mal. Here again, the expectation that you have is tantamount to DVD, which is imho too high. And just because it's not doing as well as dvd to you, it is...suffering. You're welcome to that opinion and deduction of the current numbers, but I assure you that it appears to be unfounded to me and others.

Perhaps a bit more explanation than X (dvd) > Y (bd). Thus, BD == suffering.

[Kosty]

Seems we all had a bit of this conversation before on the significance of week to week stats versus quarterly or annual year to year comparisons on Blu-ray's growth trends.

I would think that jump in hardware/new BR owners would insure us not seeing a decline at this stage.

To ensure that, last year's ceiling would have to be this year's floor.

You make it sound like it's a baseball season- like it matters if Blu-ray gets a win or a loss every week (up or down year over year). The way the system actually works is, what matters is how many RUNS they produce (revenue) throughout the entire season compared to the previous year.

The 3-month sample so far this year indicates Blu-ray is up 74%. Who cares if a 1-week spike from 2009 is higher than an average week in 2010? All that has meant is that Blu-ray had an average week in terms of revenue, while 52 weeks ago it was having an above average week. But let's panic! *looks for big red phone*

[silverado]

Yes, he never addressed the question. Same with video game consoles from Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony. All these millions of devices sold in the last twelve months, yet software sales either remain flat or are sometimes even declining.

These guys keep telling us that since so many Blu-Ray players have sold and movies are so cheap we should be seeing constant increases in sales week after week. Yet, we don't see that for any other home entertainment platform as far as I can tell. But I love how they hold Blu-Ray to some higher standard.

Video game Consoles? iPods?
Video game sales engulf Blu ray sales so and are pretty much established with most people who own consoles (let's call them "gamers") so can't see the worry there.
iPods have been around for years and iTunes is a billion dollar monster, so music saturation has taken affect (how many people don't have Lady Gaga) so that would explain the difference between two juggernauts who have been around for years (one has been decades) and a emerging format. Kinda basic

[Malanthius]

Yes, he never addressed the question. Same with video game consoles from Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony. All these millions of devices sold in the last twelve months, yet software sales either remain flat or are sometimes even declining.

These guys keep telling us that since so many Blu-Ray players have sold and movies are so cheap we should be seeing constant increases in sales week after week. Yet, we don't see that for any other home entertainment platform as far as I can tell. But I love how they hold Blu-Ray to some higher standard.

Here is why I think this Ack. I don't think BR has even gotten to the point where it should be slowing. Those products you mentioned? They have. Big difference. That's why you can't compare the two. And if you think it's ok for BRs numbers to be slowing at this point I don't know what to say. I seriously doubt the studios would agree. I think they wanted more. If people were replacing their collections what do you think the numbers would be? See my point? I think there is still much more potential for BR out there that it will never tap into. Ref to the whole DVD is good enough for J6P argument as to why.

[Malanthius]

Nice job side stepping his question. So what is the answer?....since you know so many people who have ipods, compared to only a handful who have Blu-Ray....why isn't the sales growth for itunes higher??

Piracy..... That was easy!

[Malanthius]

Hey Mal:

You keep on repeating over and over again that my predictive powers are pathetic or my analysis or understanding of this Blu-ray market and potential for long term growth is not credible because I allegedly said Blu-ray would never fall ever ever again below 10% unit marketshare on any given week said the Raven nevermore. Or something like that...



But I can't find when I said where Blu-ray would never go below 10%.



Now I openly admit I may have said something along the lines I thought it unlikely that it would , or something like I thought 10% or so would seem to be an appropriate floor for that metric based on Blu-ray's growth, but when I say things like that, I'm normally not absolute, so kinda seems my exact wording would be relevant. Or if you asked me to state a number that would be the floor Blu-ray unit marketshare and the pie chart would be, I might have given you an answer if directly asked.

Now, I'm not saying I did not say something similar, but the funny thing is I just searched the entire year of 2010 in this forum and I really can't find anytime that I said Blu-ray would never fall below 10% unit marketshare in the future.

Would you kindly point out when I said that exactly so I can clarify my statement and see where you are either getting that misunderstanding or you can show me where I said that?

Seems my precise wording might be useful, but like I said the funny thing is I really don't remember saying something that precise and although I'm pretty fluent in searching stuff here, for some reason I can't find an instance where I said that.

I'm really curious to see as I don't remember saying that and usually would not except if I was asked by you for my opinion on the subject.

Can you help me out as it seems you know exactly where I said that?




(If anyone else remembers feel free to chime in.)

Kosty let me be honest with you. Yes I think it's bad to see sub 10% weeks at this point. I really don't care if you make a mistake. So please don't take it so hard. When I call you on it it's mostly in good smackdown spirit.

Look at it this way. I know you said it. Others know you did. You know you did. No big deal. I tried looking and I couldn't go back very far. Didn't spend a lot of time trying to be honest. But my point is. You are the man with all the knowledge. You know the stats and the trends year after year. So when you said it you had to know there were going to be slow weeks. As you said it's seasonal. I would have thought you would have taken that into consideration when you came to the conclusion that there shouldn't be anymore sub 10% weeks? I think you are smart enough that you did. That's why it seems a bit odd to me that there are these excuses now. That's all.

PS: if you are curious. It was an exchange between you and another poster. You said something along the line of " I think those sub 10% days are behind us now" And you gave your reasons why. If I have time later I'll try looking again. Honestly I probably won't spend much time doing it as I could care less. And if someone didn't quote you it could easily disappear.

[thesaintsarecoming]

Video game Consoles? iPods?
Video game sales engulf Blu ray sales so and are pretty much established with most people who own consoles (let's call them "gamers") so can't see the worry there.
iPods have been around for years and iTunes is a billion dollar monster, so music saturation has taken affect (how many people don't have Lady Gaga) so that would explain the difference between two juggernauts who have been around for years (one has been decades) and a emerging format. Kinda basic

The iPad JUST came out a few months ago. They have sold 3 million. It is perfect for mobile movie watching. iTunes music may be saturated, but iTunes movies clearly are not. Why with 3M new movie playing iPads have iTunes movie sales not increased dramatically?

MS and Sony sells millions more consoles per year, yet software does not increase at the same rate. There were millions more xboxs in homes in 2010 than in 2007...why haven't software sales increased accordingly?

That is the point he was making.

[thesaintsarecoming]

Here is why I think this Ack. I don't think BR has even gotten to the point where it should be slowing. Those products you mentioned? They have. Big difference. ...

The iPad isn't slowing down in sales. Why haven't iPad sales pushed iTunes movie sales through the roof? 3M sold in 3 months. Where are the corresponding sales?

[Sbert]

Here is why I think this Ack. I don't think BR has even gotten to the point where it should be slowing. Those products you mentioned? They have. Big difference. That's why you can't compare the two. And if you think it's ok for BRs numbers to be slowing at this point I don't know what to say. I seriously doubt the studios would agree. I think they wanted more. If people were replacing their collections what do you think the numbers would be? See my point? I think there is still much more potential for BR out there that it will never tap into. Ref to the whole DVD is good enough for J6P argument as to why.

When you have half of effective population than DVD has, it's growth can be extrapolated to be as slow and plateau that much faster.

I think it makes sense to me. However, I don't think it's come close to plateau'ing and it still shows good growth. It's going to slow down sometime and definitely going to slow down earlier in it's lifecycle that DVD.

Why surprised? Kinda normal, ain't it? Don't see what's so bad about it. Don't see how you could be expecting more when you had clearly stated you knew from a "long time" ago that things would be like this.

Of course the studios wanted more, but again you write as if this is 2008 and pre economic crash.

Is it too hard to put things in perspective instead of trying to measure it against standards that were set under certain pretenses i.e. all other things being equal? I think you need to sit back see where BD is and what has happened, and in light of all that, you still feel it's performing shittily, it would be nice to know why you think that.

Since all other things AREN'T equal, i.e. economy, you really can't impose persistence standard of performance on the format since obviously everything was revised after the fact.

[silverado]

The iPad JUST came out a few months ago. They have sold 3 million. It is perfect for mobile movie watching. iTunes music may be saturated, but iTunes movies clearly are not. Why with 3M new movie playing iPads have iTunes movie sales not increased dramatically?

MS and Sony sells millions more consoles per year, yet software does not increase at the same rate. There were millions more xboxs in homes in 2010 than in 2007...why haven't software sales increased accordingly?

That is the point he was making.

I can see how you would think your iPad claims are valid, but to the more experienced person you can't possibly make any distinction as to how many conusmers already own an Apple product. The flatline sales are with the music portion of iTunes so I need to see a link that the movie portion of iTunes is suffering as much as you say.
Once again, you cannot say how many Xbox's or PS3's are second or third consoles for consumers so video game sales only reflect the amount of "gamers".
I think trying to compare a brand new format to video games which have been around since the 80's, and music on iTunes which is a billion dollar site, is reaching at best and seems desperate.

[Malanthius]

I can see how you would think your iPad claims are valid, but to the more experienced person you can't possibly make any distinction as to how many conusmers already own an Apple product. The flatline sales are with the music portion of iTunes so I need to see a link that the movie portion of iTunes is suffering as much as you say.
Once again, you cannot say how many Xbox's or PS3's are second or third consoles for consumers so video game sales only reflect the amount of "gamers".
I think trying to compare a brand new format to video games which have been around since the 80's, and music on iTunes which is a billion dollar site, is reaching at best and seems desperate.

Ding ding ding ding ding!!!! QFT. Give that man a prize!