2010 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[bruceames]

The next two weeks should be interesting, since last year Blu-ray did 65 million during that time. Maybe we're just having better summer weather this year and thus fewer people are at home watching BD movies they bought and browsing the internet like last summer?

[Kosty]

The next two weeks should be interesting, since last year Blu-ray did 65 million during that time. Maybe we're just having better summer weather this year and thus fewer people are at home watching BD movies they bought and browsing the internet like last summer?

Well last years comparative was a big one with Coraline and Watchmen. This year Clash of the Titans is not until the week after so the major releases are shifted a week .

But it will be very interesting to see how Clash of the Titans does versus Watchmen does as both are similar genre good matches for Blu-ray and had decent box office performances.

[ack_bak]

Malanthius and Mike. Here is another riddle I am looking for you to solve. iTunes. All those new iPhones, iPads, Macbooks, iMacs, iPods, etc. We are talking tens of millions of new devices this year alone... And yet I read this news:

http://www.fiercemobilecontent.com/s...ons/2010-07-21

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) posted revenues of $15.7 billion during its fiscal third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates as earnings increased more than 77 percent year-over-year to $3.25 billion. During the quarter ending June 26, Apple sold close to 8.4 million iPhones--the new iPhone 4, released on June 24, has now sold about 3 million units. The computing giant also shipped 3.27 million iPad tablet devices during the period, although iPod sales slipped as consumers continue to migrate to the iPhone. Sales of the iPod touch nevertheless grew 48 percent year-over-year, and the iPod's overall share of the U.S. MP3 market remains at 70 percent.
[B]Sales in Apple's iTunes digital storefront increased 25 percent year over year[/B], topping $1 billion during the quarter. iTunes now accounts for 70 percent of all premium music downloads in the U.S. according to NPD Group data released in late May. iTunes' growth is slowing, however--NPD notes its share of the digital download market has remained essentially flat since the first quarter of 2009, increasing just 1 percentage point since that time. Rival AmazonMP3 increased its market share by 4 percentage points, and now represents 12 percent of the U.S. digital music market. Sales of digital tracks and albums accounted for 40 percent of overall U.S. music market share in the first quarter of 2010, a gain of 5 percentage points since Q1 2009, NPD said. Adding physical music purchases to the equation, iTunes still leads with 28 percent of all U.S. sales, a 4 percent year-over-year leap.
Apple reports the App Store now offers over 225,000 applications optimized for the iOS platform, including 11,000 expressly optimized for the iPad--downloads now top 5 billion. iOS now represents 24.4 percent of the U.S. smartphone market according to data issued earlier this month by market research firm comScore, trailing only Research In Motion's BlackBerry OS at 41.7 percent.

So.. Blu-Ray growth is 84% year over year to this point and iTunes is flat year over year. After all those sales of iPads, iPhones, iPods, etc since 2009.. Wow.. Can't wait to hear the explanation from you guys since you think Blu-Ray is failing.. Is iTunes failing too? Videogames? Please give us your expert analysis.

[Rob71]

Rob. I thought you guys were all on the same team? Why rub it in with Kosty like this uh? I don't think he was purposfully ignoring that simple concept when he thought there would not be anymore sub 10% weeks. I mean that was months ago. And more players have been sold since then to even further guarentee that from not happening. I don't think I like your insinuation!

I wasn't referring to Kosty as the one being purposefully ignorant. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[h0mi]

@ack- Id have to ask how much of the increase in itunes sales is due to apps downloads for the ipod touch, iphone and ipad.

[ack_bak]

@ack- Id have to ask how much of the increase in itunes sales is due to apps downloads for the ipod touch, iphone and ipad.

I think all of it. The article is not entirely clear but I read it as iTunes has grown 25% this year but digital music sales are completely flat. If you are Mike and Malanthius and Lee I would expect you would be unhappy with anything under 100-400% growth in iTunes with the explosion of hardware sales since early 2009. Same with videogames. Consoles have sold very well over the past year. Yet we are seeing some analysts predicting 17% sales drops. And we can't bring up the economy because whenever I do, they tell me that the economy is not a factor. So if Blu-Ray is "failing" when it shows 84% YOY growth, what does that say about the other forms of home entertainment? Blu-Ray seems to be the only brightspot...

[Lee Stewart]

I think all of it. The article is not entirely clear but I read it as iTunes has grown 25% this year but digital music sales are completely flat. If you are Mike and Malanthius and Lee I would expect you would be unhappy with anything under 100-400% growth in iTunes with the explosion of hardware sales since early 2009. Same with videogames. Consoles have sold very well over the past year. Yet we are seeing some analysts predicting 17% sales drops. And we can't bring up the economy because whenever I do, they tell me that the economy is not a factor. So if Blu-Ray is "failing" when it shows 84% YOY growth, what does that say about the other forms of home entertainment? Blu-Ray seems to be the only brightspot...

Simple question for you Ack . . .

Is BD the successor to DVD - yes or no?

[Sbert]

Simple question for you Ack . . .

Is BD the successor to DVD - yes or no?

Simple answer for me.

For HDTV households, yes.

For those that aren't, no.

Which has been my basic argument about actual effective population that we are using in regards to sales marketshare and penetration.

It's nice to know what BD is doing overall compared all of the households, but in reality it's basically relegated to HDTV households with some but very few exceptions (future proofing, ps3's on SDTV's etc).

[ack_bak]

Simple question for you Ack . . .

Is BD the successor to DVD - yes or no?

No. Studios and retailers and CE's seem very content with having both DVD and Blu-Ray on store shelves.

Now if you can please go back and address all my questions concerning box office, iTunes, video games, etc. I would like to see some explanation on why we are not seeing growth in these segments even comparable to Blu-Ray, and you cannot use the economy as an excuse since you have been adamant that it should not be used when discussing Blu-Ray's sales and adoption.

[Kosty]

10% weeks are still possible simply because DVD has that many releases that even if they sell 500 copies of some catalog title, they might sell 500 copies of 10000 catalogs, which add up. AKA Walmart sells a lot of $5 DVDs of "Major Payne". Last time I checked a $10 cheap bluray is still double a $5 DVD.

A very simple concept that a few seem to overlook. Purposefully it would seem.

Rob. I thought you guys were all on the same team? Why rub it in with Kosty like this uh? I don't think he was purposfully ignoring that simple concept when he thought there would not be anymore sub 10% weeks. I mean that was months ago. And more players have been sold since then to even further guarentee that from not happening. I don't think I like your insinuation!

I wasn't referring to Kosty as the one being purposefully ignorant. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

No problem, I didn't take it that way anyway.

I really did not take that as being directed at me anyway, nor did anyone else except Mal, and he really is not the judge of if it was intended at me or if I took offense at it. Actually it seems to be well directed as someone else besides me in that regard. Didn't bother me a lick.


I agree that DVD having a zillion more skus gives it a large mass of routine sales. I perfectly understand the concept and have been trying to explain why that means DVD has a lot more routine sales to him for years now it seems. Thats why it bothers me not that Blu-ray could fall below a 10% mark on a low unit volume week where the releases were poor.

But thats also why the average this year YTD 2010 is almost double the 8.12% YTD 2009 or quadruple the 3.48% YTD 2008 mark for that metric. Thats obviously showing growth in Blu-ray catalog sales as well as day and date releases.


I also did not consider myself a failure if one week of the year would go 0.81% below that threshold or be 0.21% from being rounded up to 10%.

Seems that when you asked me that and I stated I though that it was unlikely that Blu-ray marketshare would stay above a 10% mark, you really were not wanting an honest answer as much as you wanted a gotcha quote or something. Doesn't matter to me at all.

But since the average in that metric is 12.28% 1Q 2010, 14.43% 2Q 2010 and now currently its 13.01% YTY 2010. I'm really not bothered that it fell below 10% by a small margin this year. Thats hardly that significant especially seeing the circumstances.

[Kosty]

Simple question for you Ack . . .

Is BD the successor to DVD - yes or no?

Simple answer for me.

For HDTV households, yes.

For those that aren't, no.

Which has been my basic argument about actual effective population that we are using in regards to sales marketshare and penetration.

It's nice to know what BD is doing overall compared all of the households, but in reality it's basically relegated to HDTV households with some but very few exceptions (future proofing, ps3's on SDTV's etc).

No.

Its a high definition next generation DVD.

Both both formats will be along together as complements for many years and its likely that new releases will be released on DVD or at least as Blu-ray+DVD versions for many years to come.

Its the packaged media format that most consumers buy after they upgrade to a Blu-ray or PS3 in the house for most purchases.

But its not a replacement at retail nor will it be anytime soon as long as consumer keep on buying and renting DVD. As Blu-ray production costs are already at economical yields and capacity, there is no need to force the end of DVD at retail. Nothing wrong from a studio standpoint or retail one to extend the transition as long as they can if they are making money on both formats.

[Sbert]

No.

Its a high definition next generation DVD.

Both both formats will be along together as complements for many years and its likely that new releases will be released on DVD or at least as Blu-ray+DVD versions for many years to come.

Its the packaged media format that most consumers buy after they upgrade to a Blu-ray or PS3 in the house for most purchases.

But its not a replacement at retail nor will it be anytime soon as long as consumer keep on buying and renting DVD. As Blu-ray production costs are already at economical yields and capacity, there is no need to force the end of DVD at retail. Nothing wrong from a studio standpoint or retail one to extend the transition as long as they can if they are making money on both formats.

As far as I can tell, _EVERY_ single person that I know that has invested in HD, can not go back to SDTV without a tooth and nail fight.

So basically, it's a one way street imho. This is generally speaking for HD. That goes for SD content not being "acceptable" to these people. The only thing that might transcend this is convenience where I've heard people say how convenient it is to stream netflix and stream non action/scifi and queue BD.

So in my opinion, BD is the successor in the HDTV enabled household. It is the perferred format if the movie comes on both formats.

[Kosty]

As far as I can tell, _EVERY_ single person that I know that has invested in HD, can not go back to SDTV without a tooth and nail fight.

So basically, it's a one way street imho. This is generally speaking for HD. That goes for SD content not being "acceptable" to these people. The only thing that might transcend this is convenience where I've heard people say how convenient it is to stream netflix and stream non action/scifi and queue BD.

So in my opinion, BD is the successor in the HDTV enabled household. It is the perferred format if the movie comes on both formats.

That makes sense to me.

Anecdotally, I deal with or know a fair amount a avid DVD collectors and home theater owners and without exception none of them buy DVDs anymore.

All of the casual consumers and friends I have, almost none buy DVDs anymore, sometimes if its a kids movies or comedy or $5 bin movie they might buy a DVD, but for the most part if they have a Blu-ray player thats all they buy. Its generally a one way street.

Its funny that those historical 4% 7% 11% and projected 18% household penetration estimates track pretty damn close to Blu-ray's revenue marketshare as well.

[Malanthius]

No. Studios and retailers and CE's seem very content with having both DVD and Blu-Ray on store shelves.

Now if you can please go back and address all my questions concerning box office, iTunes, video games, etc. I would like to see some explanation on why we are not seeing growth in these segments even comparable to Blu-Ray, and you cannot use the economy as an excuse since you have been adamant that it should not be used when discussing Blu-Ray's sales and adoption.

Are you trying to compare iPods and videogames to BR? Really? I think I need two sets of hands to count how many people I know that own an iPod. One hand will do if I count BR owners and I cod have lost a digit in shop class and still have extra to count. . BRs success or lack there of cannot be compared. It's not even in the same league when we are talking acceptance and willing adoption.

[Rayzor77]

Are you trying to compare iPods and videogames to BR? Really? I think I need two sets of hands to count how many people I know that own an iPod. One hand will do if I count BR owners and I cod have lost a digit in shop class and still have extra to count. . BRs success or lack there of cannot be compared. It's not even in the same league when we are talking acceptance and willing adoption.

Nice job side stepping his question. So what is the answer?....since you know so many people who have ipods, compared to only a handful who have Blu-Ray....why isn't the sales growth for itunes higher??