2010 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Sbert]

Personally, what we all think about how blu-ray is doing or not doing doesn't remove the pertinent facts.

1) It is growing _ON_ average. Thusly, it has not saturated it's market yet.
2) It is getting cheaper.
3) It is going to be around for several years.
4) There is no sign of any pullout by fiscally sound studios.
5) It is the only real way to OWN hidef content right now.

So, in light of all the dancing on BD's grave that's going on here between Mal and Mike, the basic facts remain, BD must be performing good enough to be fine and will be fine for years to come.

Onoes. We have a bad week! Onoes, it _MIGHT_ be saturating!

Does it matter at this point?

No.

[Rayzor77]

Really Kosty. Who is obsessed? Me with my few posts a week keeping you guys in check? Or yourself with maybe 10 or more posts a day with many of them saying the same thing over and over? Sorry you brought up obsessed.

Dude, looks whose talking. Over 3 posts per day average for 3 years isn't exactly a "few posts a week". With the amount of time your putting in keeping all these guys in check, perhaps you need to get a bigger badge.

[nextoo]

Personally, what we all think about how blu-ray is doing or not doing doesn't remove the pertinent facts.

1) It is growing _ON_ average. Thusly, it has not saturated it's market yet.
2) It is getting cheaper.
3) It is going to be around for several years.
4) There is no sign of any pullout by fiscally sound studios.
5) It is the only real way to OWN hidef content right now.

So, in light of all the dancing on BD's grave that's going on here between Mal and Mike, the basic facts remain, BD must be performing good enough to be fine and will be fine for years to come.

Onoes. We have a bad week! Onoes, it _MIGHT_ be saturating!

Does it matter at this point?

No.

Exactly right.

But in the spirit of anticipation I doubt even the most pessimistic BD supporter would have predicted the past few months as it relates to software sales.

Especially is we rewind to a short 24 months ago. Shortly after the format war was over and the skids were greased.

Thus I fully understand the laments from the likes of Bill Hunt.

That being said there is nothing wrong with a perfectly fine cinephile format which is focused on a very few vocal and desperate contributers.

As opposed to the masses which seem to prefer convenience. And are voting with their wallets. Or lack there of.

[Kosty]

That being said there is nothing wrong with a perfectly fine cinephile format which is focused on a very few vocal and desperate contributers.

As opposed to the masses which seem to prefer convenience. And are voting with their wallets. Or lack there of.

First off, who is desperate?

Next, if Blu-ray is selling millions of units a week, even if thats not on the scale of DVD, which few consumer products are, its hardly a "few" consumers and its roughly doubling year to year.

Then, understanding there certainly is a shift from sell through revenues to rental with the recession and the growth of Netflix and more importantly Redbox $1 rental kiosks, where exactly do you see any abandonment of packaged media during the last three years?

The chart below shows the three components of the packaged media revenue stream, DVD sell through (yellow) Blu-ray (blue) and DVD+Blu-ray rental (purple).

That appears to be a relatively stable long term revenue stream with only substitution from DVD sell through into Blu-ray sell through and into the rental stream.

Where exactly do you see consumers voting with their wallets away from packaged media at the present time or into any alternatives?

Just asking.

Just note the scale on the left is $100s of millions in revenues generated from physical disc based home packaged sales (DVD and Blu-ray) each week.

[Sbert]

Exactly right.

But in the spirit of anticipation I doubt even the most pessimistic BD supporter would have predicted the past few months as it relates to software sales.

Especially is we rewind to a short 24 months ago. Shortly after the format war was over and the skids were greased.

Thus I fully understand the laments from the likes of Bill Hunt.

That being said there is nothing wrong with a perfectly fine cinephile format which is focused on a very few vocal and desperate contributers.

As opposed to the masses which seem to prefer convenience. And are voting with their wallets. Or lack there of.

Right, then AFTER that...we had...

http://www.money-zine.com/Investing/...Crash-of-2008/

So putting all things in _PERSPECTIVE_, there's no telling how to expect BD would perform under the circumstances.

In light of the economic challenge, the other delivery options including VOD / OTA Cable/Sat, Internet, Streaming / Netflix, HDTV adoption, backwards compatibility of the product...

So no one had a clue, but a few doom and gloomers did, or did they? Did they actually think it would do so well that now it hasn't hit their bar that they scream fail at the top of their lungs?

Let's think about this.

Do you really think that blu-ray's performance is poor in light of all the shit it went through? Naysayers should know the best that it had profile issues, cost issues, content issues...no? Shouldn't be a big deal to them, but it seems to be their joyous screams of "Fail" we hear when it doesn't do "well". When in fact, it's probably doing as they had "expected" which was to fail -> which it hasn't, won't, and will not do (anytime soon anyhow). The patting of the backs that Mike was referring to were the likes of people like Mal "knowing that it was going to be like this all along". And "like this" meaning "niche" with a connotation of niche forever.

Quite laughable, actually.

[Malanthius]

Right, then AFTER that...we had...

http://www.money-zine.com/Investing/...Crash-of-2008/

So putting all things in _PERSPECTIVE_, there's no telling how to expect BD would perform under the circumstances.

In light of the economic challenge, the other delivery options including VOD / OTA Cable/Sat, Internet, Streaming / Netflix, HDTV adoption, backwards compatibility of the product...

So no one had a clue, but a few doom and gloomers did, or did they? Did they actually think it would do so well that now it hasn't hit their bar that they scream fail at the top of their lungs?

Let's think about this.

Do you really think that blu-ray's performance is poor in light of all the shit it went through? Naysayers should know the best that it had profile issues, cost issues, content issues...no? Shouldn't be a big deal to them, but it seems to be their joyous screams of "Fail" we hear when it doesn't do "well". When in fact, it's probably doing as they had "expected" which was to fail -> which it hasn't, won't, and will not do (anytime soon anyhow). The patting of the backs that Mike was referring to were the likes of people like Mal "knowing that it was going to be like this all along". And "like this" meaning "niche" with a connotation of niche forever.

Quite laughable, actually.

Show me where I said "I knew it was going to be like this all along"...

I think you are confused.

I actually thought BR or HD DVD would have done better. I realized probably over a year ago that it wasn't the hit that some here continue to insinuate it is. Or they try to make it seem like its better than it really is. (I'm not talking about you BTW) I actually agree with the way you feel for the most part. I'm just a little more confrontational with those hyping it up. Only really 2 or 3 left. Many of the ones that argued with me have disappeared or only pop in for the occasional hit and run.

[Malanthius]

Dude, looks whose talking. Over 3 posts per day average for 3 years isn't exactly a "few posts a week". With the amount of time your putting in keeping all these guys in check, perhaps you need to get a bigger badge.

Well if you actually had participated more you would see that I'm not on here often anymore. Besides, I wasn't the one that started throwing around the O word.

How big is Kosty's badge?!

Here's mine!

[Kosty]

Show me where I said "I knew it was going to be like this all along"...

I think you are confused.

I actually thought BR or HD DVD would have done better. I realized probably over a year ago that it wasn't the hit that some here continue to insinuate it is. Or they try to make it seem like its better than it really is. (I'm not talking about you BTW) I actually agree with the way you feel for the most part. I'm just a little more confrontational with those hyping it up. Only really 2 or 3 left. Many of the ones that argued with me have disappeared or only pop in for the occasional hit and run.

Just so we all know what you are about then.

How big is Kosty's badge?!

BTW Exactly how is this discussing the issue instead of attacking the poster then?

[Kosty]

I din't start this.

Blu-ray supporters sure are getting touchy these days.


Where are this weeks stats? Did Sony make HMM an offer they can't refuse?

For the record, I also am a bit irritated that the HMM pie chart is not up yet. at the time of this writing.

But I'm sure you all will let me know when it is this week at least.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

[ack_bak]

Let me get this straight. So now when we are talking about bad weeks we are going to point to DVD and say look! It's doing bad too! Ignore the fact that DVD is dying and that BR should be in it's prime! I can see DVD doing bad but the new kid on the block? Already?! You guys act like there is nothing for these BR owners to buy. Fact is there is plenty. They just are not buying the way studios wanted. They are buying a BR movie here and there. The rest of the time those players are being used to play games. And to a lesser extent upscale thier old DVDs and stream netflix.

Okay, Blu-Ray sales were up 112% from Q2 2009 to Q2 2010. What were the studios expectations again? You seem to know. Can you point to a link that shows the studios were expecting growth much higher than 112%?

[ack_bak]

Blu-ray has declined Year over Year in 5 of the last 14 weekly reports. If this week's report shows YoY decline that will be 6 weeks out of the last 15 weeks.

We have the Q1+Q2 numbers for 2009 vs 2010. Blu-Ray is not declining. There are weeks when the numbers are way up over last year and weeks when the numbers are down. Again, it is because of the content that is being offered and sold on any given week.

Let me ask you a question. Are movie box office sales up week over week from this year to last year? With 3D, more screens, and higher prices surely we should be seeing higher revenue numbers week in and out?

Are video game sales up every single week from this year to last year? I mean the Wii, PS3, and Xbo360 sales have not even peaked? Using your theory and Malanthius's theory we should never see a week for video game sales that is lower than last year?

[ack_bak]

Really Kosty. Who is obsessed? Me with my few posts a week keeping you guys in check? Or yourself with maybe 10 or more posts a day with many of them saying the same thing over and over? Sorry you brought up obsessed.

All of your posts say the same thing over and over. We get it. You are disappointed with Blu-Ray.. You are worried about the format.

So move on. You have lots of alternatives. You keep telling us that downloads and streaming are the future. So why not just move to that medium completely? You get very defensive that people on an HD forum enjoy Blu-Ray so much.. I find it both amusing and very odd....

[ack_bak]

Malanthius and Mike,

Please explain how this can possibly happen based on your theories? I mean video game console sales are up over last year and there are more consoles than ever before in people's homes. Tons of cheap games out there to buy. How could sales possibly be down?:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...14-712509.html

After a short-lived bump in May, videogame sales are expected to decline again for the month of June when the NPD Group issues its report on the period late Thursday.

Analysts blame the expected decline on a lighter release slate for the month, which saw no big new titles hit store shelves. There may also be some residual slowness from May, when some high-profile titles released that month didn't sell as well as some had expected.

"We expect investors to remain spooked by the May results, and do not think that June results will likely reverse investor perception that the videogame industry is in a state of persistent secular decline," Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan wrote in a note to clients Monday.

New releases for the month of June include "Transformers: War for Cybertron" from Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI), "Tiger Woods PGA Tour 11" from Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) and "Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands" from Ubisoft Entertainment SA (UBI.FR).

The latest "Transformers" title has generated higher critic ratings than past titles from the series. Pachter said he believes the game sold at least 200,000 units during the month.

Big games from May that may see residual sales include "Red Dead Redemption" from Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) and "Super Mario Galaxy 2" from Nintendo Co. (NTDOY, 7974.OK).

A new challenge in tracking the performance of the videogame industry is that a growing number of sales are taking place over digital channels that are outside the traditional game-disc, retail-based business tracked by NPD and other researchers. In addition, online and multi-player content is keeping gamers playing big games for longer than in the past.

"With the early June launch of the second 'Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2' map pack, we think that online game play will continue to be a drain on gamers' time and wallets, and think that sales will again slide into negative territory," Pachter wrote.

For the month of June, Pachter predicts game software sales measured by NPD will decline by 8% from the same month last year. Doug Creutz of Cowen & Co. predicts a 17% decline for June, and said he expects the slowness to continue through the summer.

"Sales should pick up in September with 'Halo: Reach' and a solid fall line-up," Creutz wrote in a report Tuesday.

Analysts expect autumn to show improvements for the sector. Two of the three major console makers are debuting new add-on systems in September. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) will launch its Kinect system in November, which allows gamers to control the game with body movements and without other controllers.

Sony Corp. (SNE, 6758.TO) plans to launch its PlayStation Move in September. Move uses motion-controls similar in design to the Nintendo Wii, but offers greater precision.

The new systems may spark sales of both hardware and related game software. Analysts, however, are keeping their expectations in check.

"The impact of new hardware peripheral systems Microsoft Kinect and Sony Move on software sales remains uncertain, but our expectations are modest," Creutz wrote.

Wow. If you guys own video game consoles you better sell them now!! Because based on this news, and applying your theories, the industry is in huge trouble and may pull all their products off the shelves!!

[Sbert]

Show me where I said "I knew it was going to be like this all along"...

I think you are confused.

I actually thought BR or HD DVD would have done better. I realized probably over a year ago that it wasn't the hit that some here continue to insinuate it is. Or they try to make it seem like its better than it really is. (I'm not talking about you BTW) I actually agree with the way you feel for the most part. I'm just a little more confrontational with those hyping it up. Only really 2 or 3 left. Many of the ones that argued with me have disappeared or only pop in for the occasional hit and run.

Wow from what Bill Hunt thinks I feel like I hit the whole situation right on the head. A long time ago I said I felt BR would hit a certian level and level out. I thought this because it's really an early adopter format. One those buyers are ini see the whole thing slowing down sales wise and leveling out. I also want to say I told you so regarding the whole catalog situation. I knew that sales were not where they needed to be and that the studios would start to skimp on the transfers. That was obvious IMO when prices took a nosedive.

Well, this post in particular sums it up for me. What I got out of this is, Blu-ray is a niche format period ("it's really an early adopter format"). "Long time ago" = undefined but connotative implication of it always being the case for you or basically "All Along" as I said.

[towergrove]

Show me where I said "I knew it was going to be like this all along"...

I think you are confused.

I actually thought BR or HD DVD would have done better. I realized probably over a year ago that it wasn't the hit that some here continue to insinuate it is. Or they try to make it seem like its better than it really is. (I'm not talking about you BTW) I actually agree with the way you feel for the most part. I'm just a little more confrontational with those hyping it up. Only really 2 or 3 left. Many of the ones that argued with me have disappeared or only pop in for the occasional hit and run.

You mean those people like myself that are actually getting out of the house and enjoying some of the wonderful summertime weather (gardening is one of my passions) with their families and not worrying about how Blu Ray is doing this week vs last week? Those people? You know, the ones who tire of the same points being made over and over, I think in Latin they call that Ad nauseam.